Binary Option Trading | Wealth Coaching

Binary Options Webinars, Seminars and Coaching

Binary Options Webinars, Seminars and Coaching submitted by yasinthashanaka455 to u/yasinthashanaka455 [link] [comments]

Binary Options Webinars, Seminars and Coaching

Binary Options Webinars, Seminars and Coaching submitted by fortnite4technics to u/fortnite4technics [link] [comments]

Binary Options Indicator Coaching Session EUR/USD 8 Wins 1 Loss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXTMAvoLK2o
submitted by EthanMILL to investing [link] [comments]

Selling your Covered Call - Thoughts on How to Select Your Strike and Expiration

Congratulations! You are a bag holder of company XYZ which was thought to be the best penny stock ever. Instead of feeling sorry, you consider selling covered calls to help reduce your cost basis - and eventually get out of your bags with minimal loss or even a profit!
First - let's review the call option contract. The holder of the call option contract has the right but not the obligation to purchase 100 shares of XYZ at the strike price per share. This contract has an expiration date. We assume American style option contracts which means that the option can be exercised at any point prior to expiration. Thus, there are three parameters to the option contract - the strike price, the expiration date and the premium - which represents the price per share of the contract.
The holder of the call option contract is the person that buys the option. The writer of the contract is the seller. The buyer (or holder) pays the premium. The seller (or writer) collects the premium.
As an XYZ bag holder, the covered call may help. By writing a call contract against your XYZ shares, you can collect premium to reduce your investment cost in XYZ - reducing your average cost per share. For every 100 shares of XYZ, you can write 1 call contract. Notice that that by selling the contract, you do not control if the call is exercised - only the holder of the contract can exercise it.
There are several online descriptions about the covered call strategy. Here is an example that might be useful to review Covered Call Description
The general guidance is to select the call strike at the price in which you would be happy selling your shares. However, the context of most online resources on the covered call strategy assume that you either just purchased the shares at market value or your average cost is below the market price. In the case as a bag holder, your average cost is most likely over - if not significantly over - the current market price. This situation simply means that you have a little work to reduce your average before you are ready to have your bags called away. For example, you would not want to have your strike set at $2.50 when your average is above that value as this would guarantee a net loss. (However, if you are simply trying to rid your bags and your average is slightly above the strike, then you might consider it as the strike price).
One more abstract concept before getting to what you want to know. The following link shows the Profit/Loss Diagram for Covered Call Conceptually, the blue line shows the profit/loss value of your long stock position. The line crosses the x-axis at your average cost, i.e the break-even point for the long stock position. The green/red hockey stick is the profit (green) or loss (red) of the covered call position (100 long stock + 1 short call option). The profit has a maximum value at the strike price. This plateau is due to the fact that you only receive the agreed upon strike price per share when the call option is exercised. Below the strike, the profit decreases along the unit slope line until the value becomes negative. It is a misnomer to say that the covered call is at 'loss' since it is really the long stock that has decreased in value - but it is not loss (yet). Note that the break-even point marked in the plot is simply the reduced averaged cost from the collected premium selling the covered call.
As a bag holder, it will be a two-stage process: (1) reduce the average cost (2) get rid of bags.
Okay let's talk selecting strike and expiration. You must jointly select these two parameters. Far OTM strikes will collect less premium where the premium will increase as you move the strike closer to the share price. Shorter DTE will also collect less premium where the premium will increase as you increase the DTE.
It is easier to describe stage 2 "get rid of bags" first. Let us pretend that our hypothetical bag of 100 XYZ shares cost us $5.15/share. The current XYZ market price is $3/share - our hole is $2.15/share that we need to dig out. Finally, assume the following option chain (all hypothetical):
DTE Strike Premium Intrinsic Value Time Value
20 $2.5 $0.60 $0.50 $0.10
20 $5.0 $0.25 $0 $0.25
20 $7.5 $0.05 $0 $0.05
50 $2.5 $0.80 $0.50 $0.30
50 $5.0 $0.40 $0 $0.40
50 $7.5 $0.20 $0 $0.20
110 $2.5 $0.95 $0.50 $0.45
110 $5.0 $0.50 $0 $0.50
110 $7.5 $0.25 $0 $0.25
Purely made up the numbers, but the table illustrates the notional behavior of an option chain. The option value (premium) is the intrinsic value plus the time value. Only the $2.5 strike has intrinsic value since the share price is $3 (which is greater than $2.5). Notice that intrinsic value cannot be negative. The rest of the premium is the time value of the option which is essentially the monetary bet associated with the probability that the share price will exceed the strike at expiration.
According to the table, we could collect the most premium by selling the 110 DTE $2.5 call for $0.95. However, there is a couple problems with that option contract. We are sitting with bags at $5.15/share and receiving $0.95 will only reduce our average to $4.20/share. On expiration, if still above $2.5, then we are assigned, shares called away and we receive $2.50/share or a loss of $170 - not good.
Well, then how about the $5 strike at 110 DTE for $0.50? This reduces us to $4.65/share which is under the $5 strike so we would make a profit of $35! This is true - however 110 days is a long time to make $35. You might say that is fine you just want to get the bags gone don't care. Well maybe consider a shorter DTE - even the 20 DTE or 50 DTE would collect premium that reduces your average below $5. This would allow you to react to any stock movement that occurs in the near-term.
Consider person A sells the 110 DTE $5 call and person B sells the 50 DTE $5 call. Suppose that the XYZ stock increases to $4.95/share in 50 days then goes to $8 in the next 30 days then drops to $3 after another 30 days. This timeline goes 110 days and person A had to watch the price go up and fall back to the same spot with XYZ stock at $3/share. Granted the premium collected reduced the average but stilling hold the bags. Person B on the other hand has the call expire worthless when XYZ is at $4.95/share. A decision can be made - sell immediately, sell another $5 call or sell a $7.5 call. Suppose the $7.5 call is sold with 30 DTE collecting some premium, then - jackpot - the shares are called away when XYZ is trading at $8/share! Of course, no one can predict the future, but the shorter DTE enables more decision points.
The takeaway for the second step in the 2-stage approach is that you need to select your profit target to help guide your strike selection. In this example, are you happy with the XYZ shares called away at $5/share or do you want $7.5/share? What is your opinion on the stock price trajectory? When do you foresee decision points? This will help determine the strike/expiration that matches your thoughts. Note: studies have shown that actively managing your position results in better performance than simply waiting for expiration, so you can adjust the position if your assessment on the movement is incorrect.
Let's circle back to the first step "reduce the average cost". What if your average cost of your 100 shares of XYZ is $8/share? Clearly, all of the strikes in our example option chain above is "bad" to a certain extent since we would stand to lose a lot of money if the option contract is exercised. However, by describing the second step, we know the objective for this first step is to reduce our average such that we can profit from the strikes. How do we achieve this objective?
It is somewhat the same process as previously described, but you need to do your homework a little more diligently. What is your forecast on the stock movement? Since $7.5 is the closest strike to your average, when do you expect XYZ to rise from $3/share to $7.5/share? Without PR, you might say never. With some PR then maybe 50/50 chance - if so, then what is the outlook for PR? What do you think the chances of going to $5/share where you could collect more premium?
Suppose that a few XYZ bag holders (all with a $8/share cost) discuss there outlook of the XYZ stock price in the next 120 days:
Person 10 days 20 days 30 days 40 days 50 days 100 days 120 days
A $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 $4
B $4 $4 $5 $6 $7 $12 $14
C $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7
Person A does not seem to think much price movement will occur. This person might sell the $5 call with either 20 DTE or 50 DTE. Then upon expiration, sell another $5 call for another 20-50 DTE. Person A could keep repeating this until the average is reduced enough to move onto step-2. Of course, this approach is risky if the Person A price forecast is incorrect and the stock price goes up - which might result in assignment too soon.
Person B appears to be the most bullish of the group. This person might sell the $5 call with 20 DTE then upon expiration sell the $7.5 call. After expiration, Person B might decide to leave the shares uncovered because her homework says XYZ is going to explode and she wants to capture those gains!
Person C believes that there will be a step increase in 10 days maybe due to major PR event. This person will not have the chance to reduce the average in time to sell quickly, so first he sells a $7.5 call with 20 DTE to chip at the average. At expiration, Person C would continue to sell $7.5 calls until the average at the point where he can move onto the "get rid of bags" step.
In all causes, each person must form an opinion on the XYZ price movement. Of course, the prediction will be wrong at some level (otherwise they wouldn't be bag holders!).
The takeaway for the first step in the 2-stage approach is that you need to do your homework to better forecast the price movement to identify the correct strikes to bring down your average. The quality of the homework and the risk that you are willing to take will dedicate the speed at which you can reduce your average.
Note that if you are unfortunate to have an extremely high average per share, then you might need to consider doing the good old buy-more-shares-to-average-down. This will be the fastest way to reduce your average. If you cannot invest more money, then the approach above will still work, but it will require much more patience. Remember there is no free lunch!
Advanced note: there is another method to reduce your (high) average per share - selling cash secured puts. It is the "put version" of a cover call. Suppose that you sell a XYZ $2.5 put contract for $0.50 with 60 DTE. You collect $50 from the premium of the contract. This money is immediately in your bank and reduces your investment cost. But what did you sell? If XYZ is trading below $2.50, then you will be assigned 100 shares of XYZ at $2.50/share or $250. You own more shares, but at a price which will reduce your average further. Being cash secured, your brokerage will reserve $250 from your account when you sell the contract. In essence, you reduce your buying power by $250 and conditionally purchase the shares - you do not have them until assignment. If XYZ is greater than the strike at expiration, then your broker gives back $250 cash / buying power and you keep the premium.

Early assignment - one concern is the chance of early assignment. The American style option contract allows the holder the opportunity to exercise the contract at any time prior to expiration. Early assignment almost never occurs. There are special cases that typically deal with dividends but most penny stocks are not in the position to hand out dividends. Aside from that, the holder would be throwing away option time value by early exercise. It possibly can handle - probably won't - it actually would be a benefit when selling covered calls as you would receive your profit more quickly!


This post has probably gone too long! I will stop and let's discuss this matter. I will add follow-on material with some of the following topics which factors into this discussion:
Open to other suggestions. I'm sure there are some typos and unclear statements - I will edit as needed!
\I'm not a financial advisor. Simply helping to 'coach' people through the process. You are responsible for your decisions. Do not execute a trade that you do not understand. Ask questions if needed!**
submitted by x05595113 to pennystockoptions [link] [comments]

Monster Chapter 21

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The next morning Mox was in what she referred to as her office but was more of a fully functional light industrial workshop. She chose this building partly because of the great sound deadening and large rooms. She was enjoying a cup of tea and working on a tablet when she got a notification from her bank about a deposit. When she saw the number she had to double check and then check where it came from. It was from her department in the Ministry, same account as her normal pay. She checked the memo, on the job injury compensation. She tried to flutter her flush to 'laugh' but nothing. A a year ago this would have had her so amused she would have already messaged Jorin to share the joke. She was definitely showing him when he woke up so he could have something to put him in a good mood. She had peeked in on him and as rough as the bedding looked she guessed his night had been pretty bad. She had decided to let him sleep and just order some clothes so he didn't have to bother going home before his lunch meeting. It was the least she could do for the brave act he was putting on for her, she did appreciate not seeing him fall to pieces the way he was when she came out of the coma.
This gave her an idea for how to get around the spooks and get to the Last Cup. No one would be surprised about the poor little rich girl going on a poor little rich girl spending spree after having a chunk of change like this dropped in her account. Realestate is where her family had made their money long before post scarcity and she did own a few properties already. Shortly she was looking at listings in Old Town on a great site that had this really nice local business profile section. Damn it, how lucky would it have been for the Last Cup to be on the market. She had pictured it being in some less than ideal neighborhood but it was actually a fairly upscale area. Yes, yes this would do, office space for sale in the building right across the street. Meats and sud for lunch! Buy now or set up viewing, well she couldn't dishonor the Korig name buying sight unseen. She set up viewings for a few properties in different parts of the city, "just looking today thanks' perfect. She signed a year lease on a coach that would be here in plenty of time, closed up the finished work on the tablet and went to make some breakfast with a lot more zip in her step.
***
Both her and Jorin had gotten dressed for their days business a bit early so were enjoying the mid morning air on the balcony. He had only slightly protested her choice of his new clothes with a remark about it definitely being something a retired academic would wear. She thought he looked nice but not over done and was just trying to get a flush out of her. Normally it would have, but she had an internal conflict going, she didn't want to be dead inside and was using sheer will power to offset make them pay.
Then the Universe decided it was bored.
Jorin had been watching the news on his tablet while she watched ships coming and going from the spaceport. The unobstructed view of the ships was another perk of this apartment. Jorin set the tablet down as he jumped up.
"Mox you've got to see this." he said as he rushed inside and waved on the main holoscreen. they both just stood there in shock.
The Stolm home system had experienced an extinction level event with a large asteroid striking their star. The reporter was interviewing some expert about the history of the system. The Stolm home world, Prax, had been plunged into an ice age a few centuries ago by a mega volcano and the survivors had moved to the mirror swarm around the main star, Praxnia Majora, that was already under construction at the time.
Jorin flipped the channels looking for something on the current situation and they watched an asteroid the size of a decent moon smash through the mirror swarm and hit Praxnia Majora so hard that the flare wiped out the entire mirror swarm and almost all of the cylinder stations around it. The estimated death toll was staggering, experts were claiming that on a normal day that they just watched the deaths of 22 billion Stolm, roughly 70% of their population. The reporters were discussing the time it was going to take for them to send aid and the possibility this death toll could rise in that time, even with a hyperspace link it had taken 22 days for the first reports to reach the capital and the nearest navy vessels that could offer any real aid were more than 60 days out.
"Mox this makes no sense, something is off about this."
Mox wished she could laugh like a human. She sat down and waved up the keyboard and went to work. She linked into the main workstation in her office, rewound the broadcast to the footage of the impact and had the computer start estimating the speed of the asteroid and overlaying the data. She then started hunting through the galactic catalog for something matching that rock, when that came up empty she substituted something close.
"Jorin, hey, will you make me a cup of tea please." she needed to get him doing something other than standing over her with his mouth hanging open staring at the holoscreen.
It took awhile for the computer to run the numbers, she had limited it to the local machine because she didn't want anyone seeing her crunch the numbers on this with network resources.
"That can't be right can it?" Jorin said shrinking back in his chair."94% light speed at impact, is that even possible?"
First time since that day Mox had flushed and she was having to do everything in her power not to because all she felt was pure joy. "Not naturally no, you reap what you sow."
Jorin looked at her for a moment, she wasn't sure if he had seen the bit of flush she couldn't help and then asked. "How? What do you mean?"
"Someone strapped FTL drives on that rock and dropped it to sublight outside of the system." She pulled up some data from the processing stream at the bottom. "It's a binary system and the footage is from an observatory in orbit around Praxnia Minor. We could see it long enough to judge decel, yeah it had been FTL 110 million miles out. If we could get footage from that point I'm guessing the engines were dropped after entering real space and were diverted off into the void or jumped back into FTL."
"So many innocent lives... who would... who could even do this?"
"Jorin, we could do this, we don't because of the conventions on ethical war. Weaponizing FTL is a war crime."
She didn't want to tell him.
"The Stolm have a lot of enemies, you know that, well someone had enough of them by the looks of this." She decided she wasn't going to tell him, she had kept this between her, Krelin and the just as dead AI in the pod. If Krelin had told someone in Navy intel well so be it but she wasn't. Make them pay indeed.
He jumped up remembering his lunch plans. "I'm late, I have to go Mox, do you want me to come by later."
She had told him about her good fortune and planned spending spree and he had been pleased she was looking to do something, anything, to go on with life. "Yes that would be nice, I'll message you when I get home. Dinner is on me tonight." Even if she couldn't tell him why she definitely wanted someone to celebrate with.
***
Mox had went and looked at the properties the day before and had lunch at the Last Cup, it was a nice place, definitely the kind of place you expect criminals to hang out but the type of criminals that wore suits and ties and had corner offices. She had gotten lucky and found a parking garage off of the service alley behind the building so using the rear entrance next to the kitchen wasn't even odd. Krelin was a details guy indeed, this was going to be far easier than expected. The garage was to the right so she saw the door she was looking for but didn't walk past it so only dared a glance at the locks. Standard biolocks, all she would have to do is grab the handle and open it. Well if it hadn't been reset, had Krelin planned for it to take this long? She pushed that terror inducing thought down, she didn't need to risk a public records search to guess this was not a rental.
She purchased the office space and had hammered out a deal with the broker to act as her leasing and management agent. She called the coach to come around to pick her up made a big display of checking her schedule on her tablet. When it pulled up she put her bag inside and looked across at the shops on the other side of the street. She waived her tablet across the meter to pay for the curbside parking and walked across to a clothing boutique and spent some time looking through the designer dresses. She bought a few things and walked back to the coach placed them inside, checked the time, yes, she had time for lunch. She walked over to the Last Cup sat in the front window booth and put her coat on the seat across from her where it was visible from outside and ordered. She waited a few moments looking at the other patrons, the guy who followed her in was seated at the bar and couldn't see down the hall past the restrooms to the kitchen. She knew there would be a camera, there are cameras everywhere but she was sure this was off the books which is why they were doing it eyes on. She waved the server over and asked if she would watch over her stuff while she used the restroom. He looked over and Mox was careful to not make eye contact, he saw her stuff in the booth as she walked toward the restroom and stayed in his seat. She made the turn opposite the restrooms and went out past the pick up counter at the kitchen entrance telling the cashier she would be right back she needed to fetch something from her coach. Quick left turn, grab the door handle it opened and she was in. She hurried up the stairs and into the apartment and saw the one bedroom and hurried to it almost at a run. She pulled out the small knife she had brought and flipped the mattress over onto the floor and cut open the spot a repair had been made. The data card was there, she slipped it in a hidden pocket in her boot, put the knife away as she was heading for the door and was back down and walking back into the restaurant in less than 3 minutes. She walked back out into the dining area adjusting her belt, he was still at the bar. She sat back down and enjoyed her meal, and left in plenty of time to make her next appointment. She was also buying a small tenement building near the spaceport.
***
She had left the tablet at home to remove temptation to access the card in the coach which she was sure was bugged. She had told Jorin she needed to get over being alone at night so she would have all the time she needed with whatever was on the card. She put it in the tablet and waited for it to mount and typed in Monster.
Cooperate. Check! Get out. Check! Last Cup. Check! #3. Check! In the mattress. Check! Tablet with no connectivity. Check! Monster. Check! Make them pay... oh yes, yes we are going to make them pay.
The card obviously wasn't all of the data from the AI, it would have taken thousands of these cards. It was everything she needed. A decent amount evidence from the pod, with archive footage of Hannah, she couldn't watch that. A network spyder with thousands of network addresses all over the galaxy for news and conspiracy sites. A message from everyone's favorite fallen hero Major Agnar Krelin. Thousands of files of evidence naming names, a few who had been on the holo praising Krelin's heroism, the coup hadn't failed.
All she had to do was enter the password to activate the spyder and plug this card into any mainlink terminal anywhere and walk away. Oh we are going to make them pay.
The last folder contained a partition menu, the trash for the spooks that would trigger the nuclear option for everything else, the main data and one named I am sorry. She accessed it, a compressed file titled For Mox. She transferred it to the tablet, closed and unmounted the card. Did she really want to talk to the dead? She stared at the file for a long time before unpacking it. The first folder contained bank accounts, spyders that would change her identity, yeah she might have to run now that she knew the coup hadn't failed. The next folder had some pulsar coordinates for off planet locations, safe houses? Ship and captain names and schedules. Yeah he had looked out for her. Next folder was a video message from Krelin, she turned that off before he got past I'm sorry, she was comfortable with her level of hate for the man at the moment. The next folder was a gut punch, it was chat messages between Krelin and... Hannah? How, when? What the frack was this? Seriously what the frack was this? The glitch with her tablet. Well frack managing that hate level. Nope, this she couldn't handle.
I can't do this, I can't. One folder left, frack you Krelin. She opened it and there was some text, 'I know these mean more to you than any of this' and an audio play list of all of Hannah's songs. She pushed play and got up to pace the room as she heard her own voice talking to Hannah a million years ago and as soon as she heard that voice the whole universe collapsed into a singularity in the middle of her being and she fell to the floor.
He had completely destroyed her again and she lay there a broken husk until long after the music stopped.
submitted by Fornicious_Fogbottom to HFY [link] [comments]

New to This

I’m a mess.
My partner and I have been together a little over 7 years. He (preferred pronoun for now) has always been attracted to femininity in different bodies and being more feminine himself. We had a conversation the very first night we were intimate and we have had open conversation about it since then. I generally have to initiate the conversation, but it’s also generally me that needs reassurance that he still wants me, even if I’m not exactly his ideal.
A few weeks ago, he gave himself a super cute haircut, but kept part of it long. He told me then that he wanted to keep the long part because he is non-binary. I was so happy for him and so glad he told me... I asked him what language he wanted me to use to describe him (I’ve used a gendered pet name) and quickly adapted my language. I wanted to ask him about other outward expression of his true identity, but I wanted him to have control, so I figured he’d come to me if/when he was ready to start fleshing ideas out.
But then yesterday, he told me that he has already made an appointment to start HRT. And that he took the first available appointment. He does not need my permission, but I am hurt that he didn’t have a conversation with me first. I had and have so many questions and concerns and thoughts that I want us to have space and time to feel out before HRT.
He says he doesn’t want to have any surgeries, and wants a more feminine voice and body. I don’t understand why HRT is the first stop and not a voice coach and some other feminization options. He says he won’t change anything about his expression until he can pass for female, and understands that may never happen... He is very giddy/happy about this, and I fear he is being naive about some things that could happen.
The biggest for me is that I desperately want us to have a baby (this has not been a secret) and he’s always said there is no rush but HRT introduces a rush and/or the possibility of freezing sperm but we’re also both in our mid 30s so the fertility gods are not necessarily on our side with a limited supply. When I mentioned it last night, he said he has looked at freezing sperm but when I started talking about fertility testing first so we have our best shot, he shut down.
My next concern is about sex. I am an anomaly about ciswomen in that I can only orgasm through penetration. I know orgasming isn’t the most important part of sex, but it’s pretty far up there. I don’t feel like he’s being completely honest with himself about the possibility that penetrative sex without toys could be off the table. I have never needed to educate myself on the mechanics, so when I asked him last night he was like “yep, I’ll still be able to get erect. Yep, I’ll still be able to ejaculate. It won’t change my sex drive much except that I won’t think about it all the time” but when I was reading (all night), that doesn’t seem to necessarily be the case? And there is no way to predict what the case will be for us. I asked him if he was scared about things changing and he said no.
We’re actors and singers, and have done multiple musicals and plays together in our community. It has been one of our few outlets and safe spaces, but when his voice changes, I don’t think he’ll get cast anymore. He said he is hoping to get cast in some female roles, but... we don’t live in that progressive of an area. And the theatre world is already very hard on women’s body types and sizes, and he is very tall. I also feel like it will affect me deeply, because I can’t see myself signing up for weeks of rehearsals without him. Or even worse, him being jealous of me for having a more traditional feminine body.
I have a gay sibling and my parents did NOT handle it well. I think they will take this even worse. This will end my relationship with my family. I know with 10000% certainty that it will. I don’t want to be self-centered, but this is not just a decision he’s making for himself. He made a decision for me, too, and didn’t talk to me before he made it.
I’m sorry for the word vomit and not sure what I’m looking for.
submitted by MyBurnerPhone13 to mypartneristrans [link] [comments]

Kelly the MLM Hun - An Expose

As soon as I saw Kelly’s job description as a “health coach” pop up on the screen, I immediately suspected she was part of a MLM scheme - specifically BeachBody. I was even more sure of it when she talked about her weightloss journey, & then had to go away to a business conference for a few days when the couples returned from Mexico, likely attending one of BeachBody’s Super Weekends. I decided to do some digging & share what I found with this sub.
I turned to Kelly’s Instagram & immediately I got “boss babe” vibes. I looked through her archived stories because “Client Success” caught my eye. While none of the success stories mentioned the MLM outright, I went to the clients’ Instagram pages & they cite the company for their weight-loss success, & one even seems to be a “health coach” for BeachBody herself now.
I then turned to Kelly’s posts. They are all extremely motivating & encouraging her audience to let Kelly help you to live a better life (i.e. start dieting) &/or start your own “business”. She uses about 20 hashtags on average, & they’re your typical MLM hun ones. Her last post with #beachbody was from December 2, 2019. At first I wondered if she left BeachBody, or did she simply limit promoting the company as she knew Love is Blind would soon be released & didn’t want the backlash?
The most compelling piece of MLM evidence lies in Kelly’s Linktree. One of the options you can choose is “Weightloss Kickstart Program”, which takes you directly to the BeachBody website to purchase the 21 Day BeachBody on demand & Shakeology pack ... for ONLY $210 CAD. Ergo, Kelly likely is still profiting off sales through a MLM.
Kelly does have her own “business” (ChaseLife Together LLC - registered as a business in Georgia in 2018), but I can’t find a company website. If you send Kelly your name & email, she states she’ll add you to her private Facebook group. But still suspicious that she is actively selling BeachBody products & services.
Ladies, gentlemen & non-binary friends of the jury ... not only did Kelly break the heart of our sweet angel face Kenny ... but I suspect that she is an active MLM hun. For these reason, I am NOT Team Kelly. I rest my case.
If you need more info on why MLM’s are problematic, I encourage you to checkout antiMLM. If there’s anything I missed, please let me know in the comments!
submitted by heidilamb to LoveIsBlindOnNetflix [link] [comments]

Coach Cosys Training Plan (that does not need a superlative adjective)

Training Plan

I created a training plan on a weekly basis to help you climb up the ranks - I provide both a short and regular version of it in the spreadsheet. This training plan is based on this post. If you do like my schedule consider giving WhalesLoveSmashBros some love since they pretty much did the heavy lifting.

Contents

  1. Drills: this is the regular training plan
  2. Details: indepth descriptions of the drills as well as download codes for training packs, links to workshop maps. Also some GIFs that show you how certain drills are done.
  3. Short Drills: takes less then 60 minutes a day
  4. Printer Friendly Version

Difficulty

Note that some drills are really advanced. Try to stick to them until it clicks. You don't want to give up too soon if at all. However, if you're mechanics are just not quite there yet make sure to work extra hours on the mechanics that will help you complete such drills.

If you don't want to read any further, be my guest, you know everything you need to know about that spreadsheet.
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Getting a jump-start with settings

Ok, with the impatient people gone let's talk about how you get an edge over them. Check your settings. This you want to do basically once, it takes 10 minutes and will most likely improve your performance. If you want to get an indepth description of what I'm goint to present to you now read this. I'm basically just filtering out the most important stuff.

Keybinds

This is just one of many possibilities. You're bindings can totally work for you, no need to change things up! But if you have never put any thought into it, you might want to try these:
If you do happen to change your controller layout note that it takes some time getting used to. You will most definetely suck a bit at first. Your brain is going to need time rewiring which it also does when you're sleeping. So if you try out a new input method it can feel like you just won't ever get comfortable with it. But the next day, after a good night of sleep, you'll suddenly feel much more capable with whatever changes you made. Give yourself the time to adapt to such changes since it's worth it in the long run!

Camera

Again, this is highly subjective. If you are happy with your current settings stick to it. However, if you never tinkered around with these settings, try these out at least:

Video Settings

Interface Settings

Steering Sensitivity

I highly suggest trying out a Steering sensitivity of 1.60 just for once to see how different and much more direct your input can feel. Check this out if you want to hear Thanovics opinion on this.

Mindset

Enough about settings. You also need to be in a certain mindset to get better fast. Always be honest with yourself. Don't cut drills you don't enjoy or that are tiresome. These might be the drills you get the most use out of.
The most important thing is to get into a habbit of doing regular training. This training plan is structured in a way that will help you with that.

Playing to improve

Understanding this is key: you are playing to improve until you are competing in a tournament or some sort of competition! If you improve you will climb up the ranks eventually.
Even if you are down by 3 goals or more, try to play to your best. Don't tilt! Understand that you did something wrong and try to find out what that was. Such games are basically your best training sessions. Winning 5:0 is easy, you don't learn much from that.

Why teammates do actually keep you down

Don't flame your teammates because why should you care. Are you trying to improve yourself or them? You are looking at a roughly 90 minute daily schedule here (or less if you opt for the short version of the schedule), that's a lot of work to do so don't put unnecessary weight on your shoulders. Don't keep yourself out of the race for higher ranks by thinking about your teammates for too much. Teammates only keep you down if you let them to. Instead learn to get carried by teammates and by this I mean ensure they are feeling good and play their best. You have an immediate effect on this.

Mentality

I know some people will just never understand this: be a positive force! I don't want you to be that because of anti-toxicity reasons, no, this is basically sport psychology. I am telling you this as your coach, be positive! If your mate messes up you can either reassure them with a "no problem" or be negative towards them. It's a binary thing really. If you are reasuring they feel less bad and therefore their play doesn't suffer too much. Also you prevent yourself from tilting. The other option is to be negative towards them making them play even worse, which will make you tilt more, which will make them tilt more and so on. That's the easiest lesson ever in sport psychology and there is no excuse for not getting this one down right now.

Feedback appreciated

If you find any mistakes or have ideas on to how improve this training plan pls let me know! I am c2 right now and therefore I am not part of the elite that is GC. I watch a lot of educational videos about RL, be it
This spreadsheet basically is a mish-mash of everything I learnd during the past few seasons but some things I might have gotten wrong and some things I just don't know about yet. So please, keep this in mind and don't shy away from giving me feedback. It can be a PM if you don't want to that publicly.
Also, my english might not be the best, so if I don't make sense at any point you can just tell me that too.
submitted by cosyash to RocketLeagueSchool [link] [comments]

The Tier H Tier List

So, I'm sure most of you have heard of the Ultimate Discord Crafting Tier List, a tier list of every single card in the game made by members of this subreddit's Discord server and organized by Justini1212. This tier list sorted the cards in PvZ Heroes by two categories, Playability and Flexibility.
The tier list is pretty nice, and the format is useful for checking whether cards are good or not. However, the tier list is already exactly a year old, and very outdated. Even though there have been no updates to the game, new decks have been discovered, and many cards like Cro-Magnolia and Vegetation Mutation are no longer accurate on the list.
The Tier 1 Tier List (which I actually helped to make) attempted to fix these problems, but at this point, that tier list is also outdated. In addition to this, it does not contain every card (we seem to have somehow missed a few while making the list), and many people felt that a lot of the card ratings were a bit weird, like Savage Spinach being rated at B Playability.
Justini has talked about how he wants to organize a second Discord tier list, but at the moment the channel where things like that are organized currently has a different project going on, and it is likely that it will be a long time before another tier list is even started. So, I decided to make my own tier list to help PvZH players know which cards are good to craft or recycle.
Now, obviously if this tier list was made by only me it would likely be filled with mistakes and my own personal bias, but it was not. I took a lot of the card ratings from the Ultimate Discord Crafting Tier List and the Tier 1 Tier List (mentioned above), and I also took feedback from experienced PvZ Heroes players on the Discord server. I decided to name this list "The Tier H Tier List", replacing the 1 in "The Tier 1 Tier List" with H because H is my favourite letter.
Like the other tier lists mentioned above, this tier list is based on two main criteria:

Category 1: Playability

How good is the card in the decks it fits in?
S: Best of the best. The card should probably get nerfed in the state it's currently in because it's just that good. You're going to play it all the time in the decks where it works.
A: Very strong. Not something you'd see nerfed, but still a very strong card that you want to play every time.
B: Good. A very strong option in the decks, but it can theoretically be gone without for one reason or another.
C: Decent. It can be worth playing, but there are reasons to drop it as well.
D: Bad. It's really not worth playing, though it at least has some merit one way or the other.
F: Terrible. There's absolutely no reason to play this card.

Category 2: Flexibility

How many decks can this fit in?
S: This is a good option in basically any deck of the class. Top tier crafting material.
A: This is a good option in at least 3 different decks.
B: This is a good option in at least 2 different decks.
C: This is a build around card that itself enables a deck, but doesn't really fit into anything else.
D: This is a good option in only one deck.
F: This card just doesn't have a deck where it fits in, either because it's just that outclassed by other cards for the deck it wants to be in, or because it wants to be part of a deck that simply doesn't exist.
Finally, since there are two key factors that these criteria do not cover, there are two extra modifiers that can be added onto each rating:
*: This is a tech card, and can move up or down significantly depending on whether or not you run into what it counters a lot.
#: This is a budget card, and moves up in the respective category if your resources are limited.
The list is sorted by flexibility, then by playability. Cards in the same tier are sorted by the order they appear in the game (so sorted by class, then cost, then name)
Without further ado, here is the tier list: https://1drv.ms/x/s!At0QUD8Co5MTlXqTPyjOmQFBZ4Fq
I put the tier list into an Excel file not only because you can copy-paste the list into your own spreadsheet if you want to sort it differently, but also because this makes it easier to edit. If you think I made an obvious mistake on some of the cards, leave a comment on this post and I might change it. If you still want the list in text form for some reason, here it is:

S Tier Flexibility

Galacta-Cactus - S
Bananasaurus Rex - S
Snapdragon - S
Ketchup Mechanic - S
Area 22 - S
Interstellar Bounty Hunter - S
Space Cowboy - S
Jugger-Nut - A
Blooming Heart - A
Berry Blast - A
Bonk Choy - A
Apple-Saucer - A
Quickdraw Con Man - A
Line Dancing Zombie - A

A Tier Flexibility

Tricarrotops - S
Garlic - A
Red Stinger - A
Black-Eyed Pea - A
Split Pea - A
Rotobaga - A
Astrocado - A
Cyborg Zombie - A
Teleportation Zombie - A
Genetic Experiment - A
Going Viral - A
Surprise Gargantuar - A
Elderberry - B#
Grow-Shroom - B
Moonwalker - B
Disco Dance Floor - B
Imposter - B
Fishy Imp - B

B Tier Flexibility

Corn Dog - A
Spikeweed Sector - A
Gatling Pea - A
Bog of Enlightenment - A
Supernova Gargantuar - A
Cool Bean - B*
Arm Wrestler - B#
Sumo Wrestler - B#
Sweet Pea - B
Lima-Pleurodon - B
Shellery - B
Sportacus - B
Dark Matter Dragonfruit - B
Lil' Buddy - B
Wing-Nut - B
Biodome Botanist - B
Extinction Event - B
Synchronized Swimmer - B
Loudmouth - B
Teleport - B
Wormhole Gatekeeper - B
Disco-Naut - B
Moon Base Z - B
Black Hole - B
Zombology Teacher - B
Zombie King - B
Fire Rooster - B
Pogo Bouncer - B
Poppin' Poppies - C
Lurch for Lunch - C
Regifting Zombie - C

C Tier Flexibility (Enables Decks)

Pecanolith - A
Vegetation Mutation - A
Onion Rings - A
Gadget Scientist - A
Headhunter - A
Headstone Carver - A
Captain Flameface - A
Three-Nut - B
Cro-Magnolia - B
Zombot Drone Engineer - B
Aerobics Instructor - B
Flag Zombie - B
Zombie Coach - B
Toxic Waste Imp - B
Mixed-Up Gravedigger - B
Astro-Shroom - C
Potted Powerhouse - C
Jelly Bean - C
Zookeeper - C
Ancient Vimpire - C
Team Mascot - C
Primeval Yeti - C
Cat Lady - D
Trickster - D
Valkyrie - D
Flamenco Zombie - D
Imp Commander - D

D Tier Flexibility

Haunted Pumpking - A
Plant Food - B#
Monkey Smuggler - B#
Forget-Me-Nuts - B
Shamrocket - B
Imitater - B
Cheese Cutter - B
Hover-Goat 3000 - B
Neutron Imp - B
Imp-Throwing Imp - B
Raiding Raptor - B
Tricorn - C#
Alien Ooze - C#
Chimney Sweep - C#
Hail-a-Copter - C#
Bungee Plumber - C#
Healthy Treat - C#
Rolling Stone - C#
Smoke Bomb - C#
Shroom for Two - C
Wild Berry - C
Veloci-Radish Hunter - C
Zapricot - C
Sonic Bloom - C
Clique Peas - C
Muscle Sprout - C
Apotatosaurus - C
Laser Cattail - C
Rescue Radish - C
Snake Grass - C
Primal Sunflower - C
Twin Sunflower - C
Magnifying Grass - C
Mustache Monument - C
Rocket Science - C
Unlife of the Party - C
Exploding Fruitcake - C
Quasar Wizard - C
Binary Stars - C
Jurassic Fossilhead - C
Cosmic Sports Star - C
Landscaper - C
Zombot Battlecruiser 5000 - C
Ice Pirate - C
Excavator Zombie - C
Trapper Zombie - C
Zombot Plank Walker - C
Wall-Nut - D
Banana Bomb - D
Admiral Navy Bean - D
Bird of Paradise - D
Eyespore - D
Sage Sage - D
Cosmic Flower - D
Goat - D
Fraidy Cat - D
Nibble - D
Zombie Yeti - D
Primordial Cheese Shover - D
Leprechaun Imp - D
Beam Me Up - D
Fun-Dead Raiser - D
Gargantuar Mime - D
Kitchen Sink Zombie - D
Barrel of Deadbeards - D
Meteor Z - D
Sugary Treat - D
Zombie's Best Friend - D
Disco Zombie - D
Planetary Gladiator - D
Knockout - D
All-Star Zombie - D
Intergalactic Warlord - D
Undying Pharaoh - D
Ducky Tube Zombie - D

F Tier Flexibility

Guacodile - B
Blockbuster - C*#
Primal Peashooter - C*#
Plantern - C#
Tough Beets - C#
Fire Peashooter - C#
Mars Flytrap - C#
Hot Date - C
Health-Nut - C
Marine Bean - C
Pear Cub - C
Banana Launcher - C
Turquoise Skull Zombie - C
Cryo-Yeti - C
Sting Bean - D#
Pismashio - D#
Pea-Nut - D#
Pea Pod - D#
Skyshooter - D#
Whipvine - D#
Cattail - D#
Cosmoss - D#
Morning Glory - D#
Bloomerang - D#
Power Flower - D#
Snorkel Zombie - D#
Surfer Zombie - D#
Kite Flyer - D#
Rodeo Gargantuar - D#
Mini-Ninja - D#
Space Pirate - D#
Stealthy Imp - D#
Photosynthesizer - D
Primal Potato Mine - D
Steel Magnolia - D
Cosmic Nut - D
Body-Gourd - D
Puff-Shroom - D
Gloom-Shroom - D
Half Banana - D
Party Thyme - D
Torchwood - D
Flourish - D
Moonbean - D
Typical Beanstalk - D
Banana Split - D
Spyris - D
Vanilla - D
Carrotillery - D
Shrinking Violet - D
Whack-a-Zombie - D
Aloesaurus - D
Cob Cannon - D
Dog Walker - D
Energy Drink Zombie - D
Hunting Grounds - D
Killer Whale - D
Pied Piper - D
Total Eclipse - D
Mondo Bronto - D
Gargantuar-Throwing Gargantuar - D
Interdimensional Zombie - D
Cosmic Scientist - D
Pool Shark - D
Parasol Zombie - D
Grave Robber - D
Trapper Territory - D
Zombot's Wrath - D
Zombie Middle Manager - D
Cone Zone - D
Buried Treasure - D
Graveyard - D
Laser Base Alpha - D
Zombie High Diver - D
Unthawed Viking - D
Poison Mushroom - F#
Poison Ivy - F#
Grape Responsibility - F
Potato Mine - F
Small-Nut - F
Cactus - F
Gardening Gloves - F
Grave Buster - F
Sea-Shroom - F
Water Chestnut - F
Hibernating Beary - F
Primal Wall-Nut - F
Pumpkin Shell - F
Spineapple - F
Force Field - F
Mirror-Nut - F
Prickly Pear - F
Starch-Lord - F
Doom-Shroom - F
Grizzly Pear - F
Smackadamia - F
Gravitree - F
Loco Coco - F
Soul Patch - F
Wall-Nut Bowling - F
Button Mushroom - F
High-Voltage Currant - F
Hot Lava - F
Reincarnation - F
Veloci-Radish Hatchling - F
Buff-Shroom - F
Fireweed - F
Seedling - F
Shelf Mushroom - F
Berry Angry - F
Cosmic Mushroom - F
Invasive Species - F
Mushroom Grotto - F
Mushroom Ringleader - F
Punish-Shroom - F
Strawberrian - F
Molekale - F
Pair of Pears - F
Pair Pearadise - F
Petal-Morphosis - F
Pineclone - F
Sergeant Strongberry - F
Sour Grapes - F
Transfiguration - F
Atomic Bombegranate - F
Bluesberry - F
Electric Blueberry - F
Lava Guava - F
Sizzle - F
Cherry Bomb - F
Dandy Lion King - F
Poison Oak - F
Grapes of Wrath - F
Kernel Corn - F
Banana Peel - F
Peashooter - F
Sweet Potato - F
Umbrella Leaf - F
Cabbage-Pult - F
Coffee Grounds - F
Doubled Mint - F
Lily of the Valley - F
Pea Patch - F
Captain Cucumber - F
Cosmic Pea - F
Fertilize - F
Grape Power - F
Repeater - F
The Podfather - F
Re-Peat Moss - F
Savage Spinach - F
Plucky Clover - F
Pod Fighter - F
The Red Plant-It - F
Bamboozle - F
Super-Phat Beets - F
Espresso Fiesta - F
Iceberg Lettuce - F
Lily Pad - F
Snowdrop - F
Weenie Beanie - F
Cosmic Bean - F
Grave Mistake - F
Lightning Reed - F
Pear Pal - F
Snow Pea - F
Sow Magic Beans - F
Chilly Pepper - F
Go-Nuts - F
Mayflower - F
Planet of the Grapes - F
Spring Bean - F
Bean Counter - F
Leaf Blower - F
Navy Bean - F
Winter Squash - F
Witch Hazel - F
Jolly Holly - F
Jumping Bean - F
Melon-Pult - F
Shooting Starfruit - F
Smoosh-Shroom - F
Threepeater - F
Brainana - F
Sap-Fling - F
Winter Melon - F
The Great Zucchini - F
Bellflower - F
Kernel-Pult - F
Sunflower - F
Fume-Shroom - F
Pepper M.D. - F
Sun-Shroom - F
Water Balloons - F
2nd-Best Taco of All Time - F
Jack O' Lantern - F
Mixed Nuts - F
Solar Winds - F
Sunflower Seed - F
Sunnier-Shroom - F
Venus Flytrap - F
Chomper - F
Heartichoke - F
Lawnmower - F
Metal Petal Sunflower - F
Sun Strike - F
Venus Flytraplanet - F
Briar Rose - F
Squash - F
Laser Bean - F
Smashing Pumpkin - F
Tactical Cuke - F
Three-Headed Chomper - F
Toadstool - F
Astro Vera - F
Cornucopia - F
Secret Agent - F
Skunk Punk - F
Yeti Lunchbox - F
Haunting Ghost - F
Haunting Zombie - F
Squirrel Herder - F
Dolphin Rider - F
Vimpire - F
Vitamin Z - F
B-flat - F
Cosmic Yeti - F
Kangaroo Rider - F
Overstuffed Zombie - F
Sneezing Zombie - F
Locust Swarm - F
Smashing Gargantuar - F
Vengeful Cyborg - F
Deep Sea Gargantuar - F
King of the Grill - F
Maniacal Laugh - F
Nurse Gargantuar - F
Octo Zombie - F
Zombot 1000 - F
Cardboard Robot Zombie - F
Mustache Waxer - F
Paparazzi Zombie - F
Cell Phone Zombie - F
Cryo-Brain - F
Evolutionary Leap - F
Transformation Station - F
Brain Vendor - F
Duckstache - F
Electrician - F
Gentleman Zombie - F
Medulla Nebula - F
Trick-or-Treater - F
Zom-Blob - F
Drum Major - F
Mad Chemist - F
Mountain Climber - F
Thinking Cap - F
Triplication - F
Copter Commando - F
Pirate's Booty - F
Portal Technician - F
Shieldcrusher Viking - F
Wizard Gargantuar - F
Bad Moon Rising - F
Zombot Dinotronic Mechasaur - F
Backup Dancer - F
Loose Cannon - F
Mystery Egg - F
Tennis Champ - F
Conga Zombie - F
Cuckoo Zombie - F
Final Mission - F
Newspaper Zombie - F
Space Ninja - F
Abracadaver - F
Exploding Imp - F
Fireworks Zombie - F
Gizzard Lizard - F
Jester - F
Unexpected Gifts - F
Cakesplosion - F
Cosmic Dancer - F
Orchestra Conductor - F
Stupid Cupid - F
Tanklyosaurus - F
The Chickening - F
Foot Soldier Zombie - F
Frankentuar - F
Gargantuar-Throwing Imp - F
Hippity Hop Gargantuar - F
Imp-Throwing Gargantuar - F
Disco-Tron 3000 - F
Gas Giant - F
Gargantuar's Feast - F
Baseball Zombie - F
Camel Crossing - F
Conehead - F
Escape Through Time - F
Gargologist - F
Leftovers - F
Terrify - F
Turkey Rider - F
Celestial Custodian - F
Lost Colosseum - F
Trash Can Zombie - F
Weed Spray - F
Bonus Track Buckethead - F
Buckethead - F
Medic - F
Stompadon - F
Chum Champion - F
Monster Mash - F
Screen Door Zombie - F
Coffee Zombie - F
Defensive End - F
Ra Zombie - F
Knight of the Living Dead - F
Wannabe Hero - F
Swabbie - F
Imp - F
Zombie Chicken - F
Barrel of Barrels - F
Dr. Spacetime - F
Frosty Mustache - F
Hot Dog Imp - F
Swashbuckler Zombie - F
Backyard Bounce - F
Cosmic Imp - F
Smelly Zombie - F
Barrel Roller Zombie - F
Firefighter - F
Tomb Raiser Zombie - F
Blowgun Imp - F
Walrus Rider - F
Cursed Gargolith - F
Zombot Aerostatic Gondola - F
Zombot Sharktronic Sub - F
Zombot Stomp - F
submitted by kevinlel to PvZHeroes [link] [comments]

Freestanding in Prague

Freestanding in Prague

The C++ standards committee met in Prague, Czech Republic between Feb 10 and Feb 15. The standard is wording complete, and the only thing between here and getting it published is ISO process. As is typical for me at these meetings, I spent a lot of time doing freestanding things, Library Incubator (LEWGI) things, and minuting along the way (15-ish sessions/papers!).

Freestanding

I had three freestanding papers coming into this meeting:
The first two papers are pieces of my former "P0829: Freestanding Proposal" paper, and had been seen by the Feature Test study group in Belfast. During this meeting, I got to run them by the Library Incubator for some design feedback. The papers were received well, though some potential danger points still exist. Library Evolution can look at the papers as soon as they have time.
P2013 is the first smaller piece taken out of "P1105: Leaving no room for a lower-level language: A C++ Subset". Exceptions are probably the most important thing in P1105, but there's so much activity going on in this area that it is hard for me to make good recommendations. The next highest priority was new and delete, hence P2013 being born. I also felt that P2013 was a good test paper to see if the committee was willing to make any language based change for freestanding.
I had presented P2013 in a prior Low Latency / SG14 telecon, and received unanimous approval (no neutral, no against votes). I was able to present it in the Evolution Incubator, and received no against votes. Then, in a surprisingly quick turnaround, I was able to present to Evolution, and again received no against votes. So now I just need to come up with wording that accomplishes my goals, without breaking constant evaluated new.

Errors and ABI

On Monday, we held a join session between Evolution and Library Evolution to talk about one of the C++ boogeymen, ABI. P1836 and P2028 have good background reading if you are not familiar with the topic. The usual arguments were raised, including that we are losing out on performance by preserving ABI, and that breaking ABI would mean abandoning some software that cannot be rebuilt today. We took some polls, and I fear that each person will interpret the polls differently. The way I interpreted the polls is that we won't do a "big" ABI break anytime soon, but we will be more willing to consider compiler heroics in order to do ABI breaks in the library.
One ABI area that is frequently overlooked is the situation that I am in. I can rebuild all of my source code, but even despite that I still care about ABI because I don't ship all of it together. I build a library with a plugin architecture, and breaking ABI would mean updating all the plugins on customer systems simultaneously... which is no easy task. I also ship binaries on Linux systems. We would prefer to be able to use new C++ features, despite targeting the various "LTS" distributions. ABI stability is a big part of that. I am hoping to make another post to cpp with my thoughts in the next few months, tentatively titled "ABI Breaks: Not just about rebuilding".
On Tuesday, LEWG discussed "P1656: 'Throws: Nothing' should be noexcept". This is a substantial change to the policy laid out in N3279, authored by Alisdair Meredith. That's why it is informally called the "Lakos" rule. We discussed the trade-offs involved, including how adding noexcept can constrain future changes, how noexcept can make precondition tests more difficult, and how this will change little in practice, because implementers already mark most "Throws: Nothing" calls as noexcept. Arguments about performance, code bloat, and standards guaranteed portability won out though. This paper was "only" a policy change, so a follow-on paper will need to be authored by someone in order to actually do the noexcept marking.
Wednesday night we had a social event celebrating the impending C++20 release. The event was held in the Prague Crossroads, built in 927 A.D.. The large tables let us have conversations with people we may not have really bumped into during the rest of the meeting. I started talking exceptions with a few of the other people at the table, and one of the had some particularly in depth knowledge about the topic. As it turns out, I was sitting at the same table as James Renwick of Low-cost Deterministic C++ Exceptions for Embedded Systems fame. I ended up talking his ear off over the course of the night.
Thursday in LEWG, we talked about Niall Douglas's "P1028: SG14 status_code and standard error object". This is the class that may one day be thrown by P0709 "Static" exceptions. Coincidentally, the most contentious parts were issues involving ABI. In several of the virtual interfaces in the standard, we've wanted to add things later, but haven't been able to do so.
Friday, James Renwick was able to present his paper, and the room was very receptive of it. One of my concerns going in to the presentation was that the committee would be unwilling to change anything in the standard related to today's exceptions. After the presentation and discussion, I'm less concerned about that. There was definitely a willingness to make some changes... but one of the big challenges is a question of whether we change default behavior in some cases, or change language ABI, even for C.

Other papers

P1385: "High level" Linear Algebra

This one is the "high level" linear algebra paper. There's a different, "lower level" linear algebra paper (P1673) that covers BLAS use cases. P1385 is intended to be something that can sit on top of P1673, if I understand correctly.
For being a math paper, there was surprisingly little math discussion in Library Incubator. We were generally discussing general interface issues like object ownership, concept requirements, and how to spell various operations, particularly inner product and outer product.

P1935: Physical Units

We are still in the philosophy and goals stage of this paper. We got to discuss the finer points of the distinctions between "kilogram" and "1 kilogram"; the difference between a unit, a dimension, and a quantity; and the difference between systems and models.
This paper is challenging in that there is significant prior art, as well as strong opinions about "the right way" to do things. This gets to one of the trickier parts of standards meetings... driving consensus. The interested parties have been requested to (preferably) work together outside of the three meetings a year, or failing that, to write a paper that gives some outline of what a solution should look like.
This paper also has an absurdly awesome / terrifying metaprogramming trick in it. A base class uses a friend declaration to declare (but not define) a function with an auto return type and no trailing return value. The derived class then declares and defines the function (again via friend) and lets the definition of the function determine the auto return type. This lets the base class use decltype to pull type information out of the derived class without explicitly passing that information down in a template argument (sorcery!). The main caveat with this trick is that it only works with exactly one derived class, as otherwise you end up with multiple conflicting definitions of the same function.

Concurrent Queues, P0260 and P1958

It's amazing what a minor paper reorg will do for productivity. This pair of papers used to be a single paper in the San Diego time frame, and we had a difficult time understanding how the pieces worked together. With the paper split as it is now, we have a small, concrete piece to review, which we were then able to see how it fit in to the interfaces and concepts of the larger paper. We got to dig in to some corner case traps with exception safety, move semantics, and race conditions. There were implementers in the room that could say what their implementation did, and I feel that the room was able to give good feedback to the authors.

P1944: constexpr and

Antony Polukhin is secretly my accidental nemesis (well, not so secret anymore). Over the course of C++20, he sprinkled constexpr on many of the things. As it turns out, there is a large (but not 100%) overlap of constexpr and freestanding. Each thing that went constexpr turned into a merge conflict that I got to resolve in my papers.
And he's still at it!
In this case, 100% of the things that were constexpr'd were also things that I have previously identified as being potentially freestanding. So that's a positive. There were concerns about implementability though, as sometimes, the C library and the C++ library come from different vendors, and having forwarding wrappers is far from trivial.

A minute about minuting

For the wg21 readers out there, if you think you are bad at taking minutes, that just means you need more practice :) . If you find yourself in a room that is about to review a paper that you are not heavily invested in, volunteer to take minutes. That way you can make a valuable contribution, even for an area where you don't have domain expertise.
As a bonus, you get to follow the minuter's code (something I just made up) about spelling other people's names. As the person taking minutes, you have license to change up to three letters in someone's name, so long as it isn't used maliciously. You can freely take any double letter in a name and convert it to a single letter (e.g. Connor -> Conor), turn a single letter to a double letter (David -> Davvid), or completely rearrange any consecutive series of vowels. And people will thank you for it! You are also given free license to interrupt people in order to ask them who they are. Give it a try!

Closing

I've got a bunch of papers to write for the next mailing, and I won't even be in Varna. So if you're interested in championing some freestanding papers, let me know, and I can coach you on the topics.
submitted by ben_craig to cpp [link] [comments]

Best Google Camera (GCam) and settings for Redmi Note 7, Note 7 Pro, Mi 9T and more - Guide

There are many versions of GCam out there but GCam mod by Parrt043 is the best at the moment.
You don't need to root your device to install this.  
Supported Devices -
This GCam and settings works on all these devices listed below,
• Xiaomi Redmi 4 Prime.
• Xiaomi Redmi Note 4 (X).
• Xiaomi Redmi Note 5 India.
• Xiaomi Redmi Note 5 Pro.
• (Xiaomi) Redmi Note 7 / 7S.
• (Xiaomi) Redmi Note 7 Pro.
• Xiaomi Mi 8 Lite.
• Xiaomi Mi 9 (Only on MIUI 10)
• Xiaomi Mi 9T. (It will aslo support some devices not mentioned here, Just try installing and see if it works for your phone)
 
Link -
GCam Link - Mega Link , Celsoazevedo - Download "PMGC_7.0.009_ConfigsVersion_V3.apk" or the latest version available (see Note at the end) .
 
Configuration -
There are 2 ways we can configure this, Using XML files (Saved Settings) and Manually, XML files are the easiest, has Astrophotography mode and is the best way in my opinion but if you want to tweak your own settings then Manual is the way to go.
Note - Parrot mods say that the GCam works best on custom firmware such as Havoc, Pixel Experience and crDroid although i haven't had any problems with MIUI.
 
1. Loading XML files -
  1. Install the GCam .apk and open it.
  2. Create a folder named "GoogleCamera" in the main folder (Root Folder).
  3. Create a folder named "ConfigsCamera" inside the "GoogleCamera" folder.
  4. Download these XML files (Use chrome to download this)
  5. Copy all three XML files and paste it inside ConfigsCamera folder (GoogleCamera -> ConfigsCamera -> .xml files are here ) See Fig. 0
  6. Open Gcam, double tap on the black part (See Fig. 1) and Select the profile you need and tap restore. (If it restarts then the profile has been successfully opened.)
  7. Make sure that HDR+ is enabled in the Mini settings Fig. 3 and enable Raw if you want it (Raw takes two images, one JPEG and one .DNG which is RAW)
  8. That's it, change the XML profiles Based on your need.
    • AZ-Main-Camera-HDR - Good to take photos from main Camera and overall the best settings.
    • AZ-Tripod-NightSight-Astro - Good for Nightsight and Also includes Astrophotography, to use Astro mode you just use the Night mode but don't move the phone, it will automatically take a 1 minute shot, use tripod for best results.
    • AZ-NightSight-2 - Secondary Nightsight option
 
2. Manual Tweaking -
  1. Install the GCam .apk and open it, go to settings and then to Advanced under photo settings.
  2. Basic Settings (Turn On and Off the following settings) -
    • Show Dirty lens warning - Turn On
    • Save selfie as previewed - Turn On if you want selfie to be as it is shown on screen.
    • HDR+ control - Turn On
    • Hide Icon Movement - Turn Off
    • Use Mode McFly - Turn Off
    • Focus Tracking - Turn Off
    • Enable Google Photos - Turn On
    • Maximum Brightness - Turn On if you want Maximum screen brightness when you are taking a pic.
    • Raw+JPEG - Turn On if you want Raw (Raw is good for lightroom editing)
    • Store Videos Efficiently - Turn On
    • Quick settings - Turn Off
  3. HDR+ Settings -
    • Compress JPG - Set to 100%
    • Quality HDR+ - I set it to 32 (I your device takes too long to take a pic then reduce this a bit)
    • Binary files library - default
    • Pixel AWB Mod - Pixel 4 XL
    • Correction auto exposure - Auto
    • Exposure compensation - set to -0.2 (The photos may be a bit darker if you use this settings but you could always increase the exposure after you take the pic, this is because it is always easier to Increase exposure, Decreasing exposure in an over exposed pic will result in a bad image)
    • Basic settings - Don't change
    • Saturation - Back camera (Set Highlight Saturation to 1.1, Set Shadow Saturation to 1.9), Leave Front camera on default
    • Use DCI-P3 color space - Turn On
  4. Portrait -
    • Advance HDR+ portrait mode - Turn On
    • Disable Zoom - Turn On
    • Save to DCIM/Camera - Turn On if you don't want separate folders for Portraits
  5. Under Experimental settings disable UHD 4K in “Acceleration” mode.
  6. That's all for Photo settings, Now go back to main setting and Set both Video settings to 1080p (If you really want it then use 4k setting but it uses too much space) then set Bitrate to Auto (If you want to set the Bitrate manually then the higher the number, the better the video quality is but it will eat up your storage). You could also stabilize the video in Google photos after you take it.
  7. That's it, Make sure that HDR+ is enabled in the Mini settings Fig. 3 and enable Raw if you want it (Raw takes two images, one JPEG and one .DNG which is RAW)
 
Note-
You are all set now, For you to use the Astrophotography mode your phone shouldn't move, Use a tripod or set your phone against something, Astrophotography pic takes about 1 minute.
This version of GCam is the best for daylight photography but the Astro mode doesn't work on it sometimes, if you don't care about that mode then install this instead. You can share this anywhere, just credit me. I would also like to thank Parrot043 team for constantly improving and modding GCam for Mi phones.
If you have any questions feel free just message me
Edit 1 - The V6 was released today (LINK), you can enable Saber mode in the settings now for Note 7, it won't crash. Saber mode improves the sharpness of the image, it merges several photos to get a single quality photo, kinda like Apple's Deepfusion. Turn it on if you like it. If your device crashes then turn it off.
Edit 2 - No need root for above mentioned devices and newer devices that was released recently.
Edit 3 - If you are having trouble creating the GoogleCamera folder to use XML files then there is another way, Open GCAM -> Go to setting -> Advanced photo settings -> tap on Save XML config -> Type something and save it.... Now the folders would have been created, just find it and paste the XML files inside it.
submitted by CleverD3vil to Xiaomi [link] [comments]

[OC] Predicting the 2019-20 Coach of the Year

For those interested, this is part of a very long blog post here where I explain my entire thought process and methodology.
This post also contains a series of charts linked to here.

Introduction

Machine Learning models have been used to predict everything in basketball from the All Star Starters to James Harden’s next play. One model that has never been made is a successful Coach of the Year Predictor. The goal of this project is to create such a model.
Of course, creating such a model is challenging because, ultimately, the COY is awarded via voting and inherently adds a human element. As we will discover in this post, accounting for these human elements (e.g. recency bias, weighing storylines, climate around the team) makes it quite challenging. Having said this, I demonstrate how we can gain insight into what voters have valued in the past, allowing us to propose the most likely candidates quite accurately.

Methods

Data Aggregation

First, I created a database of all the coaches referred to in Basketball Reference's coachs index
Coach statistics were acquired from the following template url:
f'https://www.basketball- reference.com/leagues/NBA_{season_end_year}_coaches.html'
Team statistics were acquired from the following template url:
f'https://www.basketball- reference.com/teams/{team_abbreviation}/{season_end_year}.html'
I leveraged the new basketball-reference-scraper Python module to simplify the process.
After some data engineering that I describe completely in the post, I settled on the following features.
Non numerical data Coach Statistics Team Data
COACH SEASONS WITH FRANCHISE SEASON
TEAM SEASONS OVERALL FG
CURRENT SEASON GAMES FGA
CURRENT SEASON WINS FG%
FRANCHISE SEASON GAMES 3P
FRANCHISE SEASON WINS 3PA
CAREER SEASON GAMES 3P%
CAREER SEASON WINS 2P
FRANCHISE PLAYOFF GAMES 2PA
FRANCHISE PLAYOFF WINS 2P%
CAREER PLAYOFF GAMES FT
CAREER PLAYOFF WINS FTA
COY FT%
ORB
DRB
TRB
AST
STL
BLK
TOV
PF
PTS
OPP_G
OPP_FG
OPP_FGA
OPP_FG%
OPP_3P
OPP_3PA
OPP_3P%
OPP_2P
OPP_2PA
OPP_2P%
OPP_FT
OPP_FTA
OPP_FT%
OPP_ORB
OPP_DRB
OPP_TRB
OPP_AST
OPP_STL
OPP_BLK
OPP_TOV
OPP_PF
OPP_PTS
AGE
PW
PL
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
NRtg
PACE
FTr
TS%
eFG%
TOV%
ORB%
FT/FGA
OPP_eFG%
OPP_TOV%
DRB%
OPP_FT/FGA
For obtaining a full description of each statistic, please refer to Basketball Reference's glossary.

Data Exploration

First, I computed the correlation between the COY label and all the other features and sorted them. Here are some of the top statistics that correlate with the award along with their Pearson correlation coefficient.
Statistic Pearson coefficient
CURRENT SEASON WINS 0.21764609944203592
SRS 0.20748396385759718
MOV 0.20740447792956693
NRtg 0.20613382194841318
PW 0.20282119218684597
PL -0.19850434198291064
DRtg -0.12967106743277185
ORtg 0.11896730313375109
As expected, the one of the most important features appears to be CURRENT SEASON WINS.
It is interesting the PW and PL correlate so much. This correlation indicates that not only does performance matter, but disparity between expected performance and reality matters significantly as well.
The weight put towards SRS, MOV, and NRtg also provide insight into how the COY is selected. Apparently, not only does it matter whether a team wins or not, but it also matters how they win. For example, the Bucks are typically winning games at an average of ~13 ppg this year, which would heavily favor them.
The high weight toward SRS(defined as a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule) indicates that it is even more important how a team performs against other challenging opponents. For example, no one should and does care about the Bucks crushing the Warriors, but they should care if they beat the Lakers.
Let's explore the CURRENT SEASON WINS statistic a little more using a box plot.
Box Plot
It appears coaches need to win ~50+ games for an 82 game season in order to be eligible. The exception being Mike Dunleavy’s minimum win season, there were only 50 games since it was a lockout season. Hence, that explains the outlier case.
Another interesting data point is the unfortunate coach who won the most games, but did not win the award. This turned out to be Phil Jackson, one year after his 72 win season in 1995-96 appeared to underperform by winning only 69 games. This, once again, indicates that the COY award takes into account historical performance. Who won instead? Pat Riley, with 61 wins.
Here are some histograms of the MOV and SRS where the blue plots indicate COY's and orange plots indicate NON-COY's.
As expected, COY’s are expected to dominate their teams and not just defeat them.

Oversampling

Before we begin, there is one key flaw in our dataset to look into. Namely, the two classes are not balanced at all.
Looking into the counts we have 1686 non-COY's and 43 COY's (as expected). This disparity can lead to a bad model, so how did I fix this?

SMOTE Oversampling

SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique) is a method of oversampling to even the distribution of the two classes. SMOTE takes a random sample from the minority class (COY=1 in our case) and computes it k-nearest neighbors. It chooses one of the neighbors and computes the vector between the sample and the neighbor. Next, it multiplies this vector by a random number between 0 and 1 and adds the vector to the original random sample to obtain a new data point.
See more details here.

Model Selection and Metrics

For this binary classification problem, we'll use 5 different models. Each model had its hyperparameters fine tuned using Grid Search Cross Validation to provide the best metrics. Here are all the models with a short description of each one: * Decision Tree Classifier - with Shannon's entropy as the criterion and a maximum depth of 37. * Random Forest Classifier - using the gini index as the criterion, maximum depth of 35 and maximum number of features of 5. * Logistic Classifier - using the simple ordinary least squares method * Support Vector Machine - with a linear kernel and C=1000 * Neural Network - a simple 6 layer network consisting of 80, 40, 20, 10, 5, 1 nodes, respectively (chosen to correspond with the number of features). I also used early stopping and 20% dropouts on each layer to prevent overfitting.
The metrics that will be used to evaluate our models are: NOTE that: TP=True Positives (Predicted COY and was a COY), TN=True Negatives (Predicted Not COY and was Not COY), FP=False Positives (Predicted COY and was Not COY), FN=False Negatives (Predicted Not COY and was COY)
  • Accuracy - % of correctly categorized instances ; Accuracy = (TP+TN)/(TP+TN+FP+FN)
  • Recall - Ability to categorize (+) class (COY) ; Recall = TP/(TP+FN)
  • Precision - How many of TP were correct ; Precision = TP/(TP+FP)
  • F1 - Balances Precision and Recall ; F1 = 2(Precision * Recall) / (Precision + Recall)

Results

Model Accuracy Recall Precision F1
Decision Tree 0.963 0.977 0.952 0.964
Random Forest 0.985 0.997 0.974 0.986
Logistic 0.920 0.980 0.870 0.922
SVC 0.959 0.991 0.932 0.960
Neural Network 0.898 1.0 0.833 0.909
In terms of all metrics the Random Forest outperforms all. Moreover, the Random Forest boasts an extremely high recall which is our most important metric. When predicting the Coach of the Year, we want to be able to predict the positive class best, which is indicated by a high recall.

Confusion Matrices

Confusion Matrices are another way of visualization our models' performances. Confusion Matrices are nxn matrices where the columns represent the actual class and the rows represent the class predicted by the model.
In the case of a binary classification problem, we obtain a 2x2 matrix with the true positives (bottom right), true negatives (top left), false positive (top right), and false negatives (bottom left).
Here are the confusion matrices for the Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Classifier, SVC, and Neural Network.
Looking at the confusion matrices we can clearly see the disparity between the Random Forest Classifier and other classifiers. Evidently, the Random Forest Classifier is the best option.

Random Forest Evaluation

So what made the Random Forest so good? What features did it use that enabled it to make such accurate predictions?
I charted the feature importances of the Random Forest and plotted them in order here.
Here are some explicit numbers:
Feature % Contribution
CURRENT SEASON WINS 6.569329857214043
SRS 6.368785568654217
PW 6.059094690243399
NRtg 5.5519116066060175
MOV 4.473122672559081
PL 3.643349558354282
... ...
See more in my blog post.
I found it, once again, interesting that SRS such an important feature. It appears that the Random Forest took the correlation predicted earlier into account.
However, we see that other statistics matter significantly too, like CURRENT SEASON WINS, NRtg, and MOV as we predicted.
Something one wouldn’t anticipate is the contribution of factors outside of this season like FRANCHISE and CAREER features. Along these lines, one wouldn’t expect PW or PL to matter too much, but this model indicates that it is one of the most important features.
Let’s also take a look at where the random forest failed. If you recall from the confusion matrix, there was one instance where a COY was classified as NOT COY.
The point is the 1976 COY who was categorized as not COY. This individual was coach Bill Fitch of the 1975-76 Cleveland Cavaliers. He had a modest win record of 49-33 during an overall down year where the top record was the 54-28 Lakers. Looking at the modern era where 60 win records and obscene statistics are put up on a regular basis, I would say that this is not a terrible error on our model's part.
The reason the model may have classified this as a NOT COY instance is due to the fact that the team's statistics aren't all that impressive, but impressive with respect to THAT year. This lack of incorporating other team performances during the year may be the biggest flaw in our model.

Predicting the next Coach of the Year

Unfortunately, we do not have all the statistics for the current year, but we will obtain what we can and modify the data as we did earlier.
Note that all our data is PER GAME, so for all of these statistics, we will just use the PER GAME statistics up to this point (1/21/20)
The only unrealistic statistic is, then, CURRENT SEASON statistics. We will assume CURRENT SEASON GAMES will be 82 for all coaches and obtain CURRENT SEASON WINS from 538's ELO projections on 1/21/20.
Once again, all other stats were acquired via the basketball_reference_scraper Python package.
Team Probability to win COY
MIL 0.49
TOR 0.46
LAC 0.36
BOS 0.31
HOU 0.23
LAL 0.22
DAL 0.22
MIA 0.17
DEN 0.16
IND 0.13
UTA 0.12
PHI 0.12
DET 0.09
NOP 0.07
WAS 0.05
SAS 0.04
ORL 0.04
CHI 0.04
BRK 0.04
POR 0.03
PHO 0.03
OKC 0.03
CHO 0.03
NYK 0.02
SAC 0.01
MIN 0.01
GSW 0.01
ATL 0.01
MEM 0.0
CLE 0.0
This shows the probability of each coach to win COY in the current season. Let's take a look at each of the candidates in order:
1) Milwaukee Bucks & Mike Budenholzer (49%)
Mike Budenholzer was the COY in the 2018-19 season and, objectively, the top candidate for COY this year as well. The Bucks are on a nearly 70-win pace which would automatically elevate him to the top spot.
However, the model is purely objective and fails to incorporate human elements such as the fact that individuals look at the Bucks skeptically as a 'regular season team'. Voters will likely avoid Budenholzer until there is more playoff success.
Moreover, Budenholzer won last year and voters almost never vote for the same candidate twice in a row. In fact, a repeat performance has never occurred in the COY award.
We see here the flaw in the model to not weight the human elements of recency bias against previous COY's and playoff success sufficiently.
2) Toronto Raptors & Nick Nurse (46%)
The Raptors are truly an incredible story this year. No one expected them to be this good. Even the ELO ratings put them at an expected 56 wins this season and be tied for the 3rd best record in the league behind the Lakers and Bucks.
The disparity between what people expected of the Raptors and what has actually transpired (despite injuries to significant players such as Lowry and Siakam) indicates that Nurse would be a viable candidate for COY.
3) Los Angeles Clippers & Doc Rivers (36%)
Despite the model favoring Doc Rivers, I believe it is unlikely that he wins COY due to the current stories circulating around the Clippers.
Everyone came into the season expecting the Clippers to blow everyone out of the water in the playoffs. No one expects the Clippers to exceed expectations during the regular season, especially with their superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George being the role models of load management.
4) Boston Celtics & Brad Stevens (31%)
Brad Stevens is another likely candidate for the COY. Not ony are the Celtics objectively impressive, but they also have the narrative on their side. After last year's disappointing performance, people questioned Stevens, but their newfound success without Kyrie Irving has pushed the blame onto Irving over Stevens. Moreover, significant strides have been made by their young players Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum vaulting them into Eastern Conference champion contention.
5) Los Angeles Lakers & Frank Vogel (22%)
Being in tune with the current basketball landscape through podcasts and articles, I can tell that Frank Vogel's campaign for the COY is quite strong. Over and over again we hear praises from players like Anthony Davis and Danny Green on the recent Lowe Post on how happy the Lakers are.
With the gaudy record, spotlight and percolating positive energy around the Lakers, Vogel is a very viable pick for the COY.
6) Dallas Mavericks & Rick Carlisle (22%)
Tied with Vogel is Rick Carlisle and the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks, along with the Raptors, are perhaps the most unexpected successful team this season. Looking at their roster, no one stands out except for Porzingis and Doncic, but they still tout a predicted record of 50-32.
Once again, the disparity between expectations and reality puts Carlisle in high contention of the COY.

Conclusion

Overall, I'm quite pleased with the Random Forest model's metrics. The predictions made by the model for the current 2019-20 appear on point as well. The model appears to favor the disparity between what people expected of teams and their performance on the court quite well. However, the flaw in the model is the lack of weighing recent events properly as we saw with coach Budenholzer.
Once again, predicting the COY is a challenging task and we cannot expect the model to be perfect. Yet, we can gain insight into what voters have valued in the past, allowing us to propose the most likely candidates quite accurately.
submitted by vagartha to nba [link] [comments]

[OC] Predicting the 2019-20 Coach of the Year

For those interested, this is part of a very long blog post here where I explain my entire thought process and methodology.
This post also contains a series of charts linked to here.

Introduction

Machine Learning models have been used to predict everything in basketball from the All Star Starters to James Harden’s next play. One model that has never been made is a successful Coach of the Year Predictor. The goal of this project is to create such a model.
Of course, creating such a model is challenging because, ultimately, the COY is awarded via voting and inherently adds a human element. As we will discover in this post, accounting for these human elements (e.g. recency bias, weighing storylines, climate around the team) makes it quite challenging. Having said this, I demonstrate how we can gain insight into what voters have valued in the past, allowing us to propose the most likely candidates quite accurately.

Methods

Data Aggregation

First, I created a database of all the coaches referred to in Basketball Reference's coachs index
Coach statistics were acquired from the following template url:
f'https://www.basketball- reference.com/leagues/NBA_{season_end_year}_coaches.html'
Team statistics were acquired from the following template url:
f'https://www.basketball- reference.com/teams/{team_abbreviation}/{season_end_year}.html'
I leveraged the new basketball-reference-scraper Python module to simplify the process.
After some data engineering that I describe completely in the post, I settled on the following features.
Non numerical data Coach Statistics Team Data
COACH SEASONS WITH FRANCHISE SEASON
TEAM SEASONS OVERALL FG
CURRENT SEASON GAMES FGA
CURRENT SEASON WINS FG%
FRANCHISE SEASON GAMES 3P
FRANCHISE SEASON WINS 3PA
CAREER SEASON GAMES 3P%
CAREER SEASON WINS 2P
FRANCHISE PLAYOFF GAMES 2PA
FRANCHISE PLAYOFF WINS 2P%
CAREER PLAYOFF GAMES FT
CAREER PLAYOFF WINS FTA
COY FT%
ORB
DRB
TRB
AST
STL
BLK
TOV
PF
PTS
OPP_G
OPP_FG
OPP_FGA
OPP_FG%
OPP_3P
OPP_3PA
OPP_3P%
OPP_2P
OPP_2PA
OPP_2P%
OPP_FT
OPP_FTA
OPP_FT%
OPP_ORB
OPP_DRB
OPP_TRB
OPP_AST
OPP_STL
OPP_BLK
OPP_TOV
OPP_PF
OPP_PTS
AGE
PW
PL
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
NRtg
PACE
FTr
TS%
eFG%
TOV%
ORB%
FT/FGA
OPP_eFG%
OPP_TOV%
DRB%
OPP_FT/FGA
For obtaining a full description of each statistic, please refer to Basketball Reference's glossary.

Data Exploration

First, I computed the correlation between the COY label and all the other features and sorted them. Here are some of the top statistics that correlate with the award along with their Pearson correlation coefficient. |Statistic|Pearson coefficient| |--|--| |CURRENT SEASON WINS|0.21764609944203592| |SRS|0.20748396385759718| |MOV|0.20740447792956693| |NRtg|0.20613382194841318| |PW|0.20282119218684597| |PL|-0.19850434198291064| |DRtg|-0.12967106743277185| |ORtg|0.11896730313375109|
As expected, the one of the most important features appears to be CURRENT SEASON WINS.
It is interesting the PW and PL correlate so much. This correlation indicates that not only does performance matter, but disparity between expected performance and reality matters significantly as well.
The weight put towards SRS, MOV, and NRtg also provide insight into how the COY is selected. Apparently, not only does it matter whether a team wins or not, but it also matters how they win. For example, the Bucks are typically winning games at an average of ~13 ppg this year, which would heavily favor them.
The high weight toward SRS(defined as a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule) indicates that it is even more important how a team performs against other challenging opponents. For example, no one should and does care about the Bucks crushing the Warriors, but they should care if they beat the Lakers.
Let's explore the CURRENT SEASON WINS statistic a little more using a box plot.
Box Plot
It appears coaches need to win ~50+ games for an 82 game season in order to be eligible. The exception being Mike Dunleavy’s minimum win season, there were only 50 games since it was a lockout season. Hence, that explains the outlier case.
Another interesting data point is the unfortunate coach who won the most games, but did not win the award. This turned out to be Phil Jackson, one year after his 72 win season in 1995-96 appeared to underperform by winning only 69 games. This, once again, indicates that the COY award takes into account historical performance. Who won instead? Pat Riley, with 61 wins.
Here are some histograms of the MOV and SRS where the blue plots indicate COY's and orange plots indicate NON-COY's.
As expected, COY’s are expected to dominate their teams and not just defeat them.

Oversampling

Before we begin, there is one key flaw in our dataset to look into. Namely, the two classes are not balanced at all.
Looking into the counts we have 1686 non-COY's and 43 COY's (as expected). This disparity can lead to a bad model, so how did I fix this?

SMOTE Oversampling

SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique) is a method of oversampling to even the distribution of the two classes. SMOTE takes a random sample from the minority class (COY=1 in our case) and computes it k-nearest neighbors. It chooses one of the neighbors and computes the vector between the sample and the neighbor. Next, it multiplies this vector by a random number between 0 and 1 and adds the vector to the original random sample to obtain a new data point.
See more details here.

Model Selection and Metrics

For this binary classification problem, we'll use 5 different models. Each model had its hyperparameters fine tuned using Grid Search Cross Validation to provide the best metrics. Here are all the models with a short description of each one: * Decision Tree Classifier - with Shannon's entropy as the criterion and a maximum depth of 37. * Random Forest Classifier - using the gini index as the criterion, maximum depth of 35 and maximum number of features of 5. * Logistic Classifier - using the simple ordinary least squares method * Support Vector Machine - with a linear kernel and C=1000 * Neural Network - a simple 6 layer network consisting of 80, 40, 20, 10, 5, 1 nodes, respectively (chosen to correspond with the number of features). I also used early stopping and 20% dropouts on each layer to prevent overfitting.
The metrics that will be used to evaluate our models are: NOTE that: TP=True Positives (Predicted COY and was a COY), TN=True Negatives (Predicted Not COY and was Not COY), FP=False Positives (Predicted COY and was Not COY), FN=False Negatives (Predicted Not COY and was COY)
  • Accuracy - % of correctly categorized instances ; Accuracy = (TP+TN)/(TP+TN+FP+FN)
  • Recall - Ability to categorize (+) class (COY) ; Recall = TP/(TP+FN)
  • Precision - How many of TP were correct ; Precision = TP/(TP+FP)
  • F1 - Balances Precision and Recall ; F1 = 2(Precision * Recall) / (Precision + Recall)

Results

Model Accuracy Recall Precision F1
Decision Tree 0.963 0.977 0.952 0.964
Random Forest 0.985 0.997 0.974 0.986
Logistic 0.920 0.980 0.870 0.922
SVC 0.959 0.991 0.932 0.960
Neural Network 0.898 1.0 0.833 0.909
In terms of all metrics the Random Forest outperforms all. Moreover, the Random Forest boasts an extremely high recall which is our most important metric. When predicting the Coach of the Year, we want to be able to predict the positive class best, which is indicated by a high recall.

Confusion Matrices

Confusion Matrices are another way of visualization our models' performances. Confusion Matrices are nxn matrices where the columns represent the actual class and the rows represent the class predicted by the model.
In the case of a binary classification problem, we obtain a 2x2 matrix with the true positives (bottom right), true negatives (top left), false positive (top right), and false negatives (bottom left).
Here are the confusion matrices for the Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Classifier, SVC, and Neural Network.
Looking at the confusion matrices we can clearly see the disparity between the Random Forest Classifier and other classifiers. Evidently, the Random Forest Classifier is the best option.

Random Forest Evaluation

So what made the Random Forest so good? What features did it use that enabled it to make such accurate predictions?
I charted the feature importances of the Random Forest and plotted them in order here.
Here are some explicit numbers:
Feature % Contribution
CURRENT SEASON WINS 6.569329857214043
SRS 6.368785568654217
PW 6.059094690243399
NRtg 5.5519116066060175
MOV 4.473122672559081
PL 3.643349558354282
... ...
See more in my blog post.
I found it, once again, interesting that SRS such an important feature. It appears that the Random Forest took the correlation predicted earlier into account.
However, we see that other statistics matter significantly too, like CURRENT SEASON WINS, NRtg, and MOV as we predicted.
Something one wouldn’t anticipate is the contribution of factors outside of this season like FRANCHISE and CAREER features. Along these lines, one wouldn’t expect PW or PL to matter too much, but this model indicates that it is one of the most important features.
Let’s also take a look at where the random forest failed. If you recall from the confusion matrix, there was one instance where a COY was classified as NOT COY.
The point is the 1976 COY who was categorized as not COY. This individual was coach Bill Fitch of the 1975-76 Cleveland Cavaliers. He had a modest win record of 49-33 during an overall down year where the top record was the 54-28 Lakers. Looking at the modern era where 60 win records and obscene statistics are put up on a regular basis, I would say that this is not a terrible error on our model's part.
The reason the model may have classified this as a NOT COY instance is due to the fact that the team's statistics aren't all that impressive, but impressive with respect to THAT year. This lack of incorporating other team performances during the year may be the biggest flaw in our model.

Predicting the next Coach of the Year

Unfortunately, we do not have all the statistics for the current year, but we will obtain what we can and modify the data as we did earlier.
Note that all our data is PER GAME, so for all of these statistics, we will just use the PER GAME statistics up to this point (1/21/20)
The only unrealistic statistic is, then, CURRENT SEASON statistics. We will assume CURRENT SEASON GAMES will be 82 for all coaches and obtain CURRENT SEASON WINS from 538's ELO projections on 1/21/20.
Once again, all other stats were acquired via the basketball_reference_scraper Python package.
Team Probability to win COY
MIL 0.49
TOR 0.46
LAC 0.36
BOS 0.31
HOU 0.23
LAL 0.22
DAL 0.22
MIA 0.17
DEN 0.16
IND 0.13
UTA 0.12
PHI 0.12
DET 0.09
NOP 0.07
WAS 0.05
SAS 0.04
ORL 0.04
CHI 0.04
BRK 0.04
POR 0.03
PHO 0.03
OKC 0.03
CHO 0.03
NYK 0.02
SAC 0.01
MIN 0.01
GSW 0.01
ATL 0.01
MEM 0.0
CLE 0.0
This shows the probability of each coach to win COY in the current season. Let's take a look at each of the candidates in order:
1) Milwaukee Bucks & Mike Budenholzer (49%)
Mike Budenholzer was the COY in the 2018-19 season and, objectively, the top candidate for COY this year as well. The Bucks are on a nearly 70-win pace which would automatically elevate him to the top spot.
However, the model is purely objective and fails to incorporate human elements such as the fact that individuals look at the Bucks skeptically as a 'regular season team'. Voters will likely avoid Budenholzer until there is more playoff success.
Moreover, Budenholzer won last year and voters almost never vote for the same candidate twice in a row. In fact, a repeat performance has never occurred in the COY award.
We see here the flaw in the model to not weight the human elements of recency bias against previous COY's and playoff success sufficiently.
2) Toronto Raptors & Nick Nurse (46%)
The Raptors are truly an incredible story this year. No one expected them to be this good. Even the ELO ratings put them at an expected 56 wins this season and be tied for the 3rd best record in the league behind the Lakers and Bucks.
The disparity between what people expected of the Raptors and what has actually transpired (despite injuries to significant players such as Lowry and Siakam) indicates that Nurse would be a viable candidate for COY.
3) Los Angeles Clippers & Doc Rivers (36%)
Despite the model favoring Doc Rivers, I believe it is unlikely that he wins COY due to the current stories circulating around the Clippers.
Everyone came into the season expecting the Clippers to blow everyone out of the water in the playoffs. No one expects the Clippers to exceed expectations during the regular season, especially with their superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George being the role models of load management.
4) Boston Celtics & Brad Stevens (31%)
Brad Stevens is another likely candidate for the COY. Not ony are the Celtics objectively impressive, but they also have the narrative on their side. After last year's disappointing performance, people questioned Stevens, but their newfound success without Kyrie Irving has pushed the blame onto Irving over Stevens. Moreover, significant strides have been made by their young players Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum vaulting them into Eastern Conference champion contention.
5) Los Angeles Lakers & Frank Vogel (22%)
Being in tune with the current basketball landscape through podcasts and articles, I can tell that Frank Vogel's campaign for the COY is quite strong. Over and over again we hear praises from players like Anthony Davis and Danny Green on the recent Lowe Post on how happy the Lakers are.
With the gaudy record, spotlight and percolating positive energy around the Lakers, Vogel is a very viable pick for the COY.
6) Dallas Mavericks & Rick Carlisle (22%)
Tied with Vogel is Rick Carlisle and the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks, along with the Raptors, are perhaps the most unexpected successful team this season. Looking at their roster, no one stands out except for Porzingis and Doncic, but they still tout a predicted record of 50-32.
Once again, the disparity between expectations and reality puts Carlisle in high contention of the COY.

Conclusion

Overall, I'm quite pleased with the Random Forest model's metrics. The predictions made by the model for the current 2019-20 appear on point as well. The model appears to favor the disparity between what people expected of teams and their performance on the court quite well. However, the flaw in the model is the lack of weighing recent events properly as we saw with coach Budenholzer.
Once again, predicting the COY is a challenging task and we cannot expect the model to be perfect. Yet, we can gain insight into what voters have valued in the past, allowing us to propose the most likely candidates quite accurately.
submitted by vagartha to nbadiscussion [link] [comments]

Edinburgh Trans Health Manifesto: Dangerous Bullshit

Well. I don't think I need/want to comment to much on this. Sick shit


TRANS HEALTH MANIFESTO
INTRODUCTIONFollowing the centuries-long repression of trans lives at the hands of the state, the next stage in the UK government’s war of bureaucratic attrition is the recent publication of an NHS consultation that fails in every possible capacity, and a survey that gathers less data than we’ve already presented them. We call upon everyone fighting for the health of trans people to boycott this consultation & the survey, and reject its procedures & results in full. We encourage hostile participation in the form of direct submissions of demands that don’t react to the questions posed or restrict themselves to the scope imposed by the government. We wholly reject the NHS’s attempt to codify the abuse, torment & traumatisation of trans people under the guise of ‘healthcare’. We demand accountability for the historic & present abuse of power that the NHS has encouraged glorified psychiatrists to carry out. You do not own our bodies, you cannot control our lives, and you will not prevent our needs being met. We will not tolerate compromise.The following living document is our vision for trans futures. We do not consider that our work will ever be complete, there will always be greater things on the horizon. As such, this manifesto is not final, but an open draft which will evolve as we do. This is our call to action. We will fight anyone who stands in the way of universal liberation. This is war, and we will win. TRANS HEALTH MANIFESTO Trans health is bodily autonomy. We will express our needs, and they will be met. We will change our bodies however we want. We will have universally accessible and freely available hormones & blockers, surgical procedures, and any other relevant treatments and therapies. We will end the medical gatekeeping of our bodies. We will have full, historical accountability for the abuses perpetuated against us in the name of 'healthcare’. We will see reparations for these crimes, and the crimes committed against others in our names.We are not too ill, too disabled, too anxious, too depressed, too psychotic, too Mad, too foreign, too young, too old, too fat, too thin, too poor, or too queer to make decisions about our bodies and our futures. We are all self-medicating. Our agency will be recognised. We each labour far harder for the health of ourselves and those around us than any doctor ever has, and we will continue build supportive communities on principles of mutual aid.We deny the separation of bodies, minds, and selves - a violence against any part of us is a violence against all of us. We believe that the epidemic of chronic conditions in our communities is a consequence of the war of attrition waged against us over centuries. We do not exist in isolation, and it is essential to our healthcare that we are all healing together, healing each other, and healing our world. We will heal the damage of borders and states, government and authority, capitalism and imperialism.We recognise that the history of trans medicine is a history of colonial and fascist abuse. We see the history of eugenicist experimentation from Nazi concentration camps, to the colonial implentation of the West’s regime of the gender binary, to virginity tests for South Asian and other Women of Colour in the UK in the 1970s; from the sterilisation & birth control trials forced on the women of Puerto Rico, to the thousands of Black and brown people who have died on NHS psychiatric wards; from the denial of the reproductive rights of disabled people, to the denial of access to abortions to people in the North of Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, past and present. We see the continued manifestation of eugenicist medicine in the denial of our bodily autonomy as trans people today: from coercive surgeries on intersex infants, to forced sterilisation in parts of europe, policing of and misinformation regarding our sexual reproduction, to gatekeeping of surgeries and medicines.Our fight for bodily autonomy cannot be separated from our fight for reproductive justice. The demand to do what we want with our bodies is necessarily a demand for free and accessible abortions, for the decriminalisation of sex work, and for universal self-determination. We fight for an end to borders, prisons and police. We recognise that we do not exist independently of our environment, and so our fight for self-determination and health is a fight for climate justice, too. We are not separate from our environment, health is unattainable while the water is poisoned and the land is scorched.There will be no clinics, and no authorities. We will conduct our own research, and experiment with our own bodies. We will heal and grow together. We will accumulate knowledge and share it freely and accessibly. We demand nothing less than the total abolition of the clinic, of psychiatry, and of the medical-industrial complex. We demand an end to capitalist & colonialist “medicine”. We demand hormones & blockers are made available over-the-counter and by free prescription upon request. We need free, universal access to safe hormones & blockers at any age, the opportunity to decide our own doses, and universally accessible information on the safety & efficacy of different regimens. We are already taking hormones in this way, so this demand is simply that the danger of doing so is effectively mitigated.We demand that all therapies that can be are made available at drop-ins, with self-referral for any therapy or procedure for which drop-in is unsuitable. We demand anonymous blood tests, both postal & at drop-in endocrinology clinics, where we can seek the advice of a consultant if we wish.We demand the freedom to alter our bodies without justification. We demand an end to all surgical prerequisites - nobody should have to prove life experience,health or have to be taking hormones in order to exercise bodily autonomy. We demand that these surgeries can be highly customised to meet our individual & unique needs. We demand the right to multiple surgeries, including reversal of previous surgeries if desired, so that we do not have to fear regret. We demand the free & timely provision of genital surgeries, additive & reductive chest surgeries, hysterectomies and orchiectomies, tracheal & vocal surgeries, facial surgeries, lipoplasty, contouring & microdermabrasion, surgical hair removal & transplantation, and any other possible procedure to meet our needs as we express them.We demand resources for hair removal anywhere on our bodies, and the option of local anesthetic during these procedures. We demand voice coaching that does not coerce us to alter our voices in ways we do not express a need for, but respects our accents and our right to express ourselves however we desire.We demand access to counselling & and any other therapies we choose.We demand the revocation of medical licenses from all gender clinic doctors & nurses, past and present.We demand the power to hold abusers of medical & administrative power accountable for historical & present injustices. We demand medical training to enable us to safely carry out medical procedures & research for each other, for anyone of us who wants to learn. We will enhance our collective knowledge, so that the means to understand our bodies is universally accessible. We demand to improve the quality of medications we take and procedures we undergo, to reduce negative side-effects in the long term, and to highlight our own experience and understanding of their effects on our bodies.We demand research centres & libraries of knowledge, autonomously & horizontally organised by and for trans people, in which research subjects are equal participants in deciding the experiments conducted & the manner in which those experiments are carried out. We demand full funding for any research or projects undertaken by these collectives.We demand mandatory education, written & taught entirely by trans people, at all educational stages, from nursery to adulthood. Trans kids have a need to understand themselves, in the context of their own bodies, lives & experiences. We must repair the damage done by section 28, the legacy of which is still causing harm to today’s children.We demand material reparations for historical abuses against trans people, and for all people hurt by eugenicist medical practices and policies.We demand an end to birth certificates and to legal gender. Gender records should be anonymised, and only ever recorded as part of equalities monitoring. Neither government, nor any institution, has any justification for keeping a register of trans people. Birth certificates are not just a violence against trans people, they are a material to the state’s oppression of “undocumented” immigrants and asylum seekers.We demand good quality, accessible & safe homes for all; and demand adquate resources to trans and marginalised people to establish communes & housing co-operatives to schemes and projects.We demand that trans people are immediately freed from police, military & government contracts without repercussions. We reject the system of blackmail that corporations and governments engage in, whereby trans people who can work are “rewarded” with slightly less mistreatment in exchange for the exploitation of our labour. We will not allow pinkwashing of the violence of capitalism, imperialism and the state.We demand amnesty, recourse to public funds and indefinite right to remain for all trans, lesbian, gay and bisexual immigrants & asylum seekers. No one is illegal.We demand immediate release & pardon for all trans prisoners.Edinburgh Action for Trans Health
submitted by transbodyacceptance to detrans [link] [comments]

CFC 4.0 Update

TL;DR: Unfortunately, CFC for iOS will no longer be getting updates. The betas will remain active until they expire, and the app will remain on the App Store. Thank you for a great three years and being an amazing community to work with.
Hi all,
After taking a few weeks to think things over, I have decided to end development of College Football Coach for iOS. This has been an incredibly tough decision to come to, and it is not one I make lightly.
About two weeks ago, I submitted an updated build of CFC to the App Store to see if the iOS 13 changes I made would pass muster with the Review Board. Unfortunately, they did not, and the app was once again rejected based on App Store Guideline 4.3: Spam.
I know I stated (in no uncertain terms) that stopping development and updates for the game was “not really an option”, but with this latest rejection (given that what was submitted was an entirely different binary and added more features, but was still rejected), it seems that Apple will not budge and let me release any updates, leaving me with few options. I could follow Apple’s suggestion to rethink my app concept and rebuild the whole game from scratch, but that would require a number of man-hours that’s just not realistic.
It’s been an amazing three years working with you all and building this game and the community from the ground up. You all have done a lot of incredible things in the game and have invested a ton of time into something I made, and for that, I am very grateful. Thanks to jonesguy14 for allowing me to port his game over to iOS in the first place three years ago.
The betas will be allowed to expire at the end of their 90-day period. I’m sorry I could not bring these latest updates to a wider audience. The app will remain on the App Store for the time being, so that others might find what I and many of you found in this project — something to fill the void left by the NCAA Football franchise.
Thank you again for your support of the game over the last three years, all of the support emails, and feature requests. I hope you’ve had as much fun in game as I had working with you all to build it.
Sincerely,
SHIVADOC
submitted by SHIVADOC to FootballCoach [link] [comments]

Advantages of accepting Maths as an Optional Subject in UPSC Mains Exams

Advantages of accepting Maths as an Optional Subject in UPSC Mains Exams

Dhyeya IAS Greater Noida
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Numerical techniques explained by leading ias academy in greater noida: Solution of mathematical and supernatural conditions of one variable by separation, Regula-Falsi and Newton-Raphson strategies, the arrangement of straight conditions by Gaussian Elimination and Gauss-Jorden (direct), Gauss-Seidel (iterative) techniques. Newton's (forward and in reverse) and insertion, Lagrange's addition. Sub-topics detailed acknowledge by best ias academy in greater noida Numerical reconciliation: Trapezoidal guideline, Simpson's standard, Gaussian quadrature equation. Numerical arrangement of normal differential conditions: Eular and Runga Kutta techniques. PC Programming: Binary framework; Arithmetic and sensible procedure on numbers; Octal and Hexadecimal systems; Conversion to and from decimal systems; Algebra of paired numbers. Components of PC frameworks and the idea of memory; Basic rationale doors and truth tables, Boolean variable based math, typical structures. The portrayal of unsigned numbers, marked whole numbers and reals, twofold exactness reals and long whole numbers. Calculations and stream diagrams for taking care of numerical investigation issues. Summed up organizes in a better manner by top ias coaching in greater noida; D'Alembert's standard and Lagrange's conditions; Hamilton conditions; Moment of latency; Motion of unbending bodies in two measurements. Condition of congruity; Euler's condition of movement for inviscid stream; Stream-lines, way of a molecule; Potential stream; Two-dimensional and axisymmetric movement; Sources and sinks, vortex movement; Navier-Stokes condition for a gooey liquid. High Objectivity and subsequently Scoring - Maths is and has consistently been a scoring subject, be it in the UPSC test or some other test. In the previous hardly any years reliably understudies with maths discretionary have performed well and acquired awesome positions. The style of introduction matters as much as the substance in UPSC, particularly in Maths. On the off chance that understudy figures out how to introduce an answer in steps featuring the central matters, one can without much of a stretch foresee the score in that question.
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Voice Surgery Resource

Hello Everyone!
For some time now, I have been wanting to share some information and resources regarding surgery. I am a trans non-binary voice specialized Speech Language Pathologist who has been working with other trans and/or non-binary voices for 12+ years, and recently I have been getting more and more questions about it. So, FINALLY, I generated this document with input from a pretty fabulous laryngologist who has been doing vocal feminization surgery for many years. (I say she is fabulous because not only is she experienced and awesome at what she does, not only is she a leader in the field, she also has demonstrated that she is a true ally to the community. She is constantly doing the work to become an even better ally. She genuinely listens, which as many of us here can attest, a lot of doctors don’t. Especially to us.)
First of all, just to review: as you already probably know, thanks to the fabulous resources posted here, to be accurately perceived as a certain gender, it mostly comes down to the pitch and resonance of your voice. There are other things one can work on/play with depending on what your goals are. It is important to find a voice that feels free, and that is sustainable. And for many people it is totally possible to get that. Some people find it easy to get that voice through community which is super rad. Many people find they still would like some more in-depth personal guidance on that, which can be found through seeing a speech-language pathologist and/or voice teacher who knows how to support you with this. Everyone is different and has unique needs and goals and it can be super helpful to work with someone who specializes in that. Many insurance covers this, and it can be a great option. I am part of a trans-led gender affirmative program called Passaggio, at a voice center, San Francisco Voice and Swallowing, and we take most insurances. For those who don’t have insurance, feel free to DM me about some other ways to access this. I may just make a separate post about that.
Now regarding surgery...
Vocal Feminization Surgery: There are 3 main ways that surgeons can raise the pitch in your vocal folds: 1) Shorten the length of the vibrating portion of the vocal folds (usually by making a web, essentially sewing a tiny portion of the vocal folds together). The most common form is called Wendler’s glottoplasty, which is the most common technique being used today. You may have also heard this called Vocal Fold Shortening and Retrodisplacement of the Anterior Commissure (VFSRAC). 2) Increase the tension of the vocal folds (though something called cricothyroid approximation.) 3) Decrease the mass of the vocal folds (usually done with a laser.)
So you are probably aware of the benefits of the surgery. If it turns out as it should, you never have to worry about your pitch dropping below a certain range ever again. How awesome is that? For many this can be a great option, especially if one is having difficulty raising their pitch.
But before you choose this route, it is also very important to know the risks associated with this surgery. When compared to other gender affirming surgeries, such as facial surgery or top surgery, results of voice feminization surgery are harder to control and predict. This is because the vocal folds are small, dynamic (always in motion), and have other important roles such as in breathing and swallowing which the surgeon also has to consider while altering the vocal fold anatomy.
Of the above mentioned surgery methods, all of them share the following risks: 1) There is a really good chance you will not be able to get as loud as you used to. 2) It can decrease your range, which is great for the bottom part of the range, but you also may lose some of your highest pitch range. 3) Your pitch may be a little more inconsistent, less stable. 4) With certain techniques, one may get initial pitch elevation, but over time the pitch may decrease again. 5) Or, the surgery may not work at all, and there will be little to no change in your pitch. Other potential but less common risks include swallowing difficulty, taste changes, and difficulty breathing.
Generally, because of these things, if you are a singer- whether you are professional or just love to sing in general, I would caution you against getting the surgery. However, if that isn’t a concern, and you want to never have to worry about dropping into a low pitch, then this can be a great option.
(If you would like to read the research on this a source of this information, check out this systematic review: Song, T. E., & Jiang, N. (2017). Transgender phonosurgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery, 156(5), 803-808.)
Important things to consider when finding a surgeon: 1) Are they a laryngologist? A laryngologist is a type of Ear Nose Throat (ENT) doctor who has done additional fellowship training in order to specialize in the larynx. They are going to know the most about keeping your voice healthy. They look at and operate on vocal folds all the time, so they will have the most knowledge and experience on voice surgery.
2) Do they work with a speech-language pathologist (SLP)? This is crucial. Surgery only addresses pitch, so for accurate gender perception, it will be important to also work on resonance and the other targets. Equally important, a voice specialized SLP is going to be very important in helping your vocal folds heal well, through therapy techniques that are tailored to you and your unique voice needs. 3) And lastly, do they have experience in voice feminization surgery? Only a small number of laryngologists do this type of surgery regularly. It’s totally reasonable and acceptable to ask –How many of these surgeries have you done? What are your results?
Vocal Masculinization Surgery: This is rarely done. If you are taking T, then T usually leads to a drop in pitch (mostly because T leads to increased mass in your vocal folds,) so surgery isn’t indicated. If you want a lower voice, and T is not an option, surgery may help with this. There is something called a Type III thyroplasty that a laryngologist can perform. The Type III thyroplasty decreases the tension of the vocal folds thereby decreasing the pitch (think loosening a violin or guitar string). There is not a lot of documentation in the medical community on how effective this surgery is, because it is rarely done. Theoretically, it can help change the pitch, but not really do much for resonance. So again, one will need to work with a laryngologist AND an SLP for healing and other target areas. And if you are singer, I would caution you to weigh the risks this could have on your ability to sing. If you are taking T, it generally has the effect of increasing the mass of the vocal folds, therefore making your pitch lower. If you are still dissatisfied with your voice, well, you are not alone, and there are a lot of potential reasons for this. One could be that your thicker vocal folds require more effort to vibrate, and some find that their voice wears out faster. Others have difficulty for one reason or another adjusting to the changes in their larynx, because when it comes to the voice, your body has to relearn how to make that happen. Working with a speech-language pathologist who has specialty training and experience with this can be very useful, as the SLP can help figure out where the trouble is happening, and help you to address it. However, surgery is not going to be useful in this scenario. If you are not taking T, but you want a different voice, you can also work with advice and wisdom in this forum and/or work with a voice specialist SLP or vocal coach on being able to do this. While some lower range expansion is possible, you may not be able to achieve typical AMAB ranges, but there are some things you can do with resonance and other possible targets to shift your voice.
In Summary: Remember that pitch and resonance together are the two most important targets for accurate gender perception, and surgery only addresses pitch. Surgery is an option primarily for vocal feminization, in that it can help to permanently raise your average speaking pitch. If you get surgery, it will be important to find a Laryngologist who works with a Speech-Language Pathologist, as that SLP will help optimize your healing AND help to potentially help you to address other voice targets.
submitted by TravelingPsychopomp to transvoice [link] [comments]

Does it ever really get better or do we spend our lives never feeling secure or stable

Sorry, this is a long post, thanks for reading.
I had a meeting with my community Mental health worker today. The discussion was therapy. She raised a food point, would more therapy actually help. And I honestly don’t know. I’ve done over 7 years of therapy including individual, group, mindfulness based cognitive therapy, CBT, DBT, transference based, etc. None of it has taken away how I feel inside. I know bpd doesn’t just go away but I guess I have always held onto this hope that the turmoil inside could come to an end. I haven’t accepted yet that this is probably something I’ll feel inside for the rest of my life. The thing that id really like to solve is this feeling of insecurity about who I am. It causes so much disruption in my life. I describe my personality traits and values etc as light switches. Different traits and values will flick on or off at random for random reasons or for no reasons at all. One day I could like doing something like painting. Next day I’m selling all my painting supplies. I see these other people go about their lives with maybe a little uncertainty, but for the most part sure about who they are, what they want, and where their going in life. For the last 9 years I have made no progress in post secondary because I start something, get into it, have a nervous breakdown because it doesn’t feel right, and quit. I just started in the social service worker program and I’m so happening my pattern doesn’t happen again. So far taking it really part tome is helping. But the uncertainty is right under the surface bubbling.
To complicate things, I came out as trans and transitioned to male about six years ago. For the last two years I’ve been having difficulty with gender confusion, again. This time I’m considering even detransitioning or the possibility I’m non binary. I’m hoping for the non binary but I know deep down that something is wrong and wants to be female again. This has created so much agony in my life and led to feeling suicidal and attempting suicide once already. I think a lot of my gender issues come back to having bpd, whether I am transgender or not. Transitioning didnt take away the problems inside.
So back to my mental health workers question. Do I think more therapy would help. Sigh... god I wish it would. What I ultimately wanted was to get into a comprehensive dbt program. But there’s only one in town and I’ve been banned from the premises. That’s a bpd story for another time. I was really hoping that that would help. My only option now is to work through a bpd workbook with my mental health worker. They are also able to do some coaching over the phone or by text during business hours. So some similarities to a comprehensive dbt program. When I look at things in my life right now, I am a skilled person. I have and do use my skills. But unfortunately, I’m also self medicating with an opiate and have been using it for months now. It unfortunately helps me a lot and is a main coping crutch for me. But I was told by my doc I don’t have and addiction at this point which is good but bad because I can’t get any addiction support. I’d really like to be put on suboxone but that’s for another post. So what could therapy really do to help me? I don’t know. The biggest thing therapy can do is help people gain skills. There’s always room for improvement in that area but I have those. There are some psychotherapeutic techniques that may be able to benefit me but because of that previous aforementioned ban, I don’t have access to that. So, I guess my answer is no, I don’t think therapy will make a huge difference in my life. But now what? Many times I find this life intolerable. The best situation I can hope for in my mind is that Canada loosens laws and allows people with mental health conditions access to medical assistance in dying. If that day came, I don’t know if I would go for it at that time, but on days like today when I’m feeling hopeless, yes I definitely would.
I should also add that along with bpd I have anxiety, off and on depression, ptsd symptoms, mild fibromyalgia, blindness, and thyroid cancer.
I know mental illness doesn’t just go away. It’s for a lifetime. And recovery is possible. I’d consider myself to be in a place of recovery for the most part. But this is not what I want to deal with for the rest of my life. How do I let go of the hope I have that one day something will work and I miraculously get better?
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