As you may have seen, I sent the following Tweet: “The Apple ARM MacBook future is coming, maybe sooner than people expect” https://twitter.com/choco_bit/status/1266200305009676289?s=20 Today, I would like to further elaborate on that. tl;drApple will be moving to Arm based macs in what I believe are 4 stages, starting around 2015 and ending around 2023-2025: Release of T1 chip Macbooks, release of T2 chip Macbooks, Release of at least one lower end model Arm Macbook, and transitioning full lineup to Arm. Reasons for each are below. Apple is very likely going to switch to switch their CPU platform to their in-house silicon designs with an ARM architecture. This understanding is a fairly common amongst various Apple insiders. Here is my personal take on how this switch will happen and be presented to the consumer. The first question would likely be “Why would Apple do this again?”. Throughout their history, Apple has already made two other storied CPU architecture switches - first from the Motorola 68k to PowerPC in the early 90s, then from PowerPC to Intel in the mid 2000s. Why make yet another? Here are the leading reasons:
Intel has, in recent years, been making significant losses both in reputation and in actual product value, as well as velocity of product development, breaking their bi-yearly “Tick Tock” cycle for the first time in decades. Most recently, they have fallen well behind AMD’s processor lines in cost to performance ratio, CPU core count, core design (monolithic design vs “chiplet”), power consumption to performance, silicon supply (Intel with significant manufacturing process and yield issues), and on-silicon security features. While Intel still wins out in certain enterprise and datacenter applications, as well as having a much better reputation for reliability and QA (AMD having shipped numerous chips with a broken random- number generator that prevented even booting some mainstream operating system), the number of such applications slowly dwindles with each new release from AMD, and as confidence among decisionmakers in enterprise increases. In the public consciousness, Intel is quickly becoming a point of ridicule against Apple’s Mac lineup, rather than a badge of honor.
By moving to their own designs, Apple will be free from Intel’s release schedule, which have recently been unpredictable and faced with routine delays due to poor manufacturing yields. Apple will be able to update their Mac lineup on their own timeline, rather than being forced to delay products based on Intel’s ability to meet the release window. This also allows them to leverage relationships with other silicon fabricators to source chips, rather than relying on Intel ’s continued “iteration” that’s leading to a “14nm++++++++++” process, or the continued lack of product diversity with the 10nm process. Apple will also be free to innovate in the design of the silicon platform, rather than being limited by Intel’s design choices. By having full control of the manufacturing and development cycle, Apple can bring even more in-house optimization to the macOS, as they have been for iOS and iPadOS over the years.
Using an ARM architecture on the Macs allows for a more unified Apple ecosystem, rather than having separate Mac and iOS-based products. The only distinction will be the device form factor and performance characteristics.
The x86_64 architecture is very old and inefficient, using older methodologies for processor design (CISC vs ARM’s RISC), and the instruction set continues to require support in silicon for emulating 1980s-vintage 16-bit modes, as well as ineffectual and archaic memory addressing modes (segmentation, etc.) The x86_64 architecture is like a city, built atop a much older city, built atop a yet older city, but every layer is built with NYC infrastructure levels of complexity that suited its time and no further.
Over the last 10 years, Apple has shown that they can consistently produce impressive silicon designs, often leading the market in performance and capability, and Apple has been aggressively acquiring silicon design talent.
A common refrain heard on the Internet is the suggestion that Apple should switch to using CPUs made by AMD, and while this has been considered internally, it will most likely not be chosen as the path forward, even for their megalithic giants like the Mac Pro. Even though AMD would mitigate Intel’s current set of problems, it does nothing to help the issue of the x86_64 architecture’s problems and inefficiencies, on top of jumping to a platform that doesn’t have a decade of proven support behind it. Why spend a lot of effort re-designing and re- optimizing for AMD’s platform when you can just put that effort into your own, and continue the vertical integration Apple is well-known for? I believe that the internal development for the ARM transition started around 2015/2016 and is considered to be happening in 4 distinct stages. These are not all information from Apple insiders; some of these these are my own interpretation based off of information gathered from supply-chain sources, examination of MacBook schematics, and other indicators from Apple.
Stage1 (from 2014/2015 to 2017):
The rollout of computers with Apple’s T1 chip as a coprocessor. This chip is very similar to Apple’s T8002 chip design, which was used for the Apple Watch Series 1 and Series 2. The T1 is primarily present on the first TouchID enabled Macs, 2016 and 2017 model year MacBook Pros. Considering the amount of time required to design and validate a processor, this stage most likely started around 2014 or 2015, with early experimentation to see whether an entirely new chip design would be required, or if would be sufficient to repurpose something in the existing lineup. As we can see, the general purpose ARM processors aren’t a one- trick pony. To get a sense of the decision making at the time, let’s look back a bit. The year is 2016, and we're witnessing the beginning of stagnation of Intel processor lineup. There is not a lot to look forward to other than another “+” being added to the 14nm fabrication process. The MacBook Pro has used the same design for many years now, and its age is starting to show. Moving to AMD is still very questionable, as they’ve historically not been able to match Intel’s performance or functionality, especially at the high end, and since the “Ryzen” lineup is still unreleased, there is absolutely no benchmarks or other data to show they are worth consideration, and AMD’s most recent line of “Bulldozer” processors were very poorly received. Now is probably as good a time as any to begin experimenting with the in-house ARM designs, but it’s not time to dive into the deep end yet, our chips are not nearly mature enough to compete, and it’s not yet certain how long Intel will be stuck in the mud. As well, it is widely understood that Apple and Intel have an exclusivity contract in exchange for advantageous pricing. Any transition would take considerable time and effort, and since there are no current viable alternative to Intel, the in-house chips will need to advance further, and breaching a contract with Intel is too great a risk. So it makes sense to start with small deployments, to extend the timeline, stretch out to the end of the contract, and eventually release a real banger of a Mac. Thus, the 2016 Touch Bar MacBooks were born, alongside the T1 chip mentioned earlier. There are good reasons for abandoning the piece of hardware previously used for a similar purpose, the SMC or System Management Controller. I suspect that the biggest reason was to allow early analysis of the challenges that would be faced migrating Mac built- in peripherals and IO to an ARM-based controller, as well as exploring the manufacturing, power, and performance results of using the chips across a broad deployment, and analyzing any early failure data, then using this to patch any issues, enhance processes, and inform future designs looking towards the 2nd stage. The former SMC duties now moved to T1 includes things like
Fan speed, voltage, amperage and thermal sensor feedback data
FaceTime camera and microphone IO
PMIC (Power Management Controller)
Direct communication to NAND (solid state storage)
Direct communication with the Touch Bar
Secure Enclave for TouchID
The T1 chip also communicates with a number of other controllers to manage a MacBook’s behavior. Even though it’s not a very powerful CPU by modern standards, it’s already responsible for a large chunk of the machine’s operation. Moving control of these peripherals to the T1 chip also brought about the creation of the fabled BridgeOS software, a shrunken-down watchOS-based system that operates fully independently of macOS and the primary Intel processor. BridgeOS is the first step for Apple’s engineering teams to begin migrating underlying systems and services to integrate with the ARM processor via BridgeOS, and it allowed internal teams to more easily and safely develop and issue firmware updates. Since BridgeOS is based on a standard and now well-known system, it means that they can leverage existing engineering expertise to flesh out the T1’s development, rather than relying on the more arcane and specialized SMC system, which operates completely differently and requires highly specific knowledge to work with. It also allows reuse of the same fabrication pipeline used for Apple Watch processors, and eliminated the need to have yet another IC design for the SMC, coming from a separate source, to save a bit on cost. Also during this time, on the software side, “Project Marzipan”, today Catalyst, came into existence. We'll get to this shortly. For the most part, this Stage 1 went without any major issues. There were a few firmware problems at first during the product launch, but they were quickly solved with software updates. Now that engineering teams have had experience building for, manufacturing, and shipping the T1 systems, Stage 2 would begin.
Stage 2 encompasses the rollout of Macs with the T2 coprocessor, replacing the T1. This includes a much wider lineup, including MacBook Pro with Touch Bar, starting with 2018 models, MacBook Air starting with 2018 models, the iMac Pro, the 2019 Mac Pro, as well as Mac Mini starting in 2018. With this iteration, the more powerful T8012 processor design was used, which is a further revision of the T8010 design that powers the A10 series processors used in the iPhone 7. This change provided a significant increase in computational ability and brought about the integration of even more devices into T2. In addition to the T1’s existing responsibilities, T2 now controls:
Full audio subsystem
Secure Enclave for internal NAND storage and encryption/decryption offload
Management of the whole system’s power and startup sequence, allowing for trusted boot (ensure boot chain-of-trust with no malicious code/rootkit/bootkit)
Those last 2 points are crucial for Stage 2. Under this new paradigm, the vast majority of the Mac is now under the control of an in-house ARM processor. Stage 2 also brings iPhone-grade hardware security to the Mac. These T2 models also incorporated a supported DFU (Device Firmware Update, more commonly “recovery mode”), which acts similarly to the iPhone DFU mode and allows restoration of the BridgeOS firmware in the event of corruption (most commonly due to user-triggered power interruption during flashing). Putting more responsibility onto the T2 again allows for Apple’s engineering teams to do more early failure analysis on hardware and software, monitor stability of these machines, experiment further with large-scale production and deployment of this ARM platform, as well as continue to enhance the silicon for Stage 3. A few new user-visible features were added as well in this stage, such as support for the passive “Hey Siri” trigger, and offloading image and video transcoding to the T2 chip, which frees up the main Intel processor for other applications. BridgeOS was bumped to 2.0 to support all of these changes and the new chip. On the macOS software side, what was internally known as Project Marzipan was first demonstrated to the public. Though it was originally discovered around 2017, and most likely began development and testing within later parts of Stage 1, its effects could be seen in 2018 with the release of iPhone apps, now running on the Mac using the iOS SDKs: Voice Recorder, Apple News, Home, Stocks, and more, with an official announcement and public release at WWDC in 2019. Catalyst would come to be the name of Marzipan used publicly. This SDK release allows app developers to easily port iOS apps to run on macOS, with minimal or no code changes, and without needing to develop separate versions for each. The end goal is to allow developers to submit a single version of an app, and allow it to work seamlessly on all Apple platforms, from Watch to Mac. At present, iOS and iPadOS apps are compiled for the full gamut of ARM instruction sets used on those devices, while macOS apps are compiled for x86_64. The logical next step is to cross this bridge, and unify the instruction sets. With this T2 release, the new products using it have not been quite as well received as with the T1. Many users have noticed how this change contributes further towards machines with limited to no repair options outside of Apple’s repair organization, as well as some general issues with bugs in the T2. Products with the T2 also no longer have the “Lifeboat” connector, which was previously present on 2016 and 2017 model Touch Bar MacBook Pro. This connector allowed a certified technician to plug in a device called a CDM Tool (Customer Data Migration Tool) to recover data off of a machine that was not functional. The removal of this connector limits the options for data recovery in the event of a problem, and Apple has never offered any data recovery service, meaning that a irreparable failure of the T2 chip or the primary board would result in complete data loss, in part due to the strong encryption provided by the T2 chip (even if the data got off, the encryption keys were lost with the T2 chip). The T2 also brought about the linkage of component serial numbers of certain internal components, such as the solid state storage, display, and trackpad, among other components. In fact, many other controllers on the logic board are now also paired to the T2, such as the WiFi and Bluetooth controller, the PMIC (Power Management Controller), and several other components. This is the exact same system used on newer iPhone models and is quite familiar to technicians who repair iPhone logic boards. While these changes are fantastic for device security and corporate and enterprise users, allowing for a very high degree of assurance that devices will refuse to boot if tampered with in any way - even from storied supply chain attacks, or other malfeasance that can be done with physical access to a machine - it has created difficulty with consumers who more often lack the expertise or awareness to keep critical data backed up, as well as the funds to perform the necessary repairs from authorized repair providers. Other issues reported that are suspected to be related to T2 are audio “cracking” or distortion on the internal speakers, and the BridgeOS becoming corrupt following a firmware update resulting in a machine that can’t boot. I believe these hiccups will be properly addressed once macOS is fully integrated with the ARM platform. This stage of the Mac is more like a chimera of an iPhone and an Intel based computer. Technically, it does have all of the parts of an iPhone present within it, cellular radio aside, and I suspect this fusion is why these issues exist. Recently, security researchers discovered an underlying security problem present within the Boot ROM code of the T1 and T2 chip. Due to being the same fundamental platform as earlier Apple Watch and iPhone processors, they are vulnerable to the “checkm8” exploit (CVE-2019-8900). Because of how these chips operate in a Mac, firmware modifications caused by use of the exploit will persist through OS reinstallation and machine restarts. Both the T1 and T2 chips are always on and running, though potentially in a heavily reduced power usage state, meaning the only way to clean an exploited machine is to reflash the chip, triggering a restart, or to fully exhaust or physically disconnect the battery to flush its memory. Fortunately, this exploit cannot be done remotely and requires physical access to the Mac for an extended duration, as well as a second Mac to perform the change, so the majority of users are relatively safe. As well, with a very limited execution environment and access to the primary system only through a “mailbox” protocol, the utility of exploiting these chips is extremely limited. At present, there is no known malware that has used this exploit. The proper fix will come with the next hardware revision, and is considered a low priority due to the lack of practical usage of running malicious code on the coprocessor. At the time of writing, all current Apple computers have a T2 chip present, with the exception of the 2019 iMac lineup. This will change very soon with the expected release of the 2020 iMac lineup at WWDC, which will incorporate a T2 coprocessor as well. Note: from here on, this turns entirely into speculation based on info gathered from a variety of disparate sources. Right now, we are in the final steps of Stage 2. There are strong signs that an a MacBook (12”) with an ARM main processor will be announced this year at WWDC (“One more thing...”), at a Fall 2020 event, Q1 2021 event, or WWDC 2021. Based on the lack of a more concrete answer, WWDC2020 will likely not see it, but I am open to being wrong here.
Stage3 (Present/2021 - 2022/2023):
Stage 3 involves the first version of at least one fully ARM-powered Mac into Apple’s computer lineup. I expect this will come in the form of the previously-retired 12” MacBook. There are rumors that Apple is still working internally to perfect the infamous Butterfly keyboard, and there are also signs that Apple is developing an A14x based processors with 8-12 cores designed specifically for use as the primary processor in a Mac. It makes sense that this model could see the return of the Butterfly keyboard, considering how thin and light it is intended to be, and using an A14x processor would make it will be a very capable, very portable machine, and should give customers a good taste of what is to come. Personally, I am excited to test the new 12" “ARMbook”. I do miss my own original 12", even with all the CPU failure issues those older models had. It was a lovely form factor for me. It's still not entirely known whether the physical design of these will change from the retired version, exactly how many cores it will have, the port configuration, etc. I have also heard rumors about the 12” model possibly supporting 5G cellular connectivity natively thanks to the A14 series processor. All of this will most likely be confirmed soon enough. This 12” model will be the perfect stepping stone for stage 3, since Apple’s ARM processors are not yet a full-on replacement for Intel’s full processor lineup, especially at the high end, in products such as the upcoming 2020 iMac, iMac Pro, 16” MacBook Pro, and the 2019 Mac Pro. Performance of Apple’s ARM platform compared to Intel has been a big point of contention over the last couple years, primarily due to the lack of data representative of real-world desktop usage scenarios. The iPad Pro and other models with Apple’s highest-end silicon still lack the ability to execute a lot of high end professional applications, so data about anything more than video editing and photo editing tasks benchmarks quickly becomes meaningless. While there are completely synthetic benchmarks like Geekbench, Antutu, and others, to try and bridge the gap, they are very far from being accurate or representative of the real real world performance in many instances. Even though the Apple ARM processors are incredibly powerful, and I do give constant praise to their silicon design teams, there still just isn’t enough data to show how they will perform for real-world desktop usage scenarios, and synthetic benchmarks are like standardized testing: they only show how good a platform is at running the synthetic benchmark. This type of benchmark stresses only very specific parts of each chip at a time, rather than how well it does a general task, and then boil down the complexity and nuances of each chip into a single numeric score, which is not a remotely accurate way of representing processors with vastly different capabilities and designs. It would be like gauging how well a person performs a manual labor task based on averaging only the speed of every individual muscle in the body, regardless of if, or how much, each is used. A specific group of muscles being stronger or weaker than others could wildly skew the final result, and grossly misrepresent performance of the person as a whole. Real world program performance will be the key in determining the success and future of this transition, and it will have to be great on this 12" model, but not just in a limited set of tasks, it will have to be great at *everything*. It is intended to be the first Horseman of the Apocalypse for the Intel Mac, and it better behave like one. Consumers have been expecting this, especially after 15 years of Intel processors, the continued advancement of Apple’s processors, and the decline of Intel’s market lead. The point of this “demonstration” model is to ease both users and developers into the desktop ARM ecosystem slowly. Much like how the iPhone X paved the way for FaceID-enabled iPhones, this 12" model will pave the way towards ARM Mac systems. Some power-user type consumers may complain at first, depending on the software compatibility story, then realize it works just fine since the majority of the computer users today do not do many tasks that can’t be accomplished on an iPad or lower end computer. Apple needs to gain the public’s trust for basic tasks first, before they will be able to break into the market of users performing more hardcore or “Pro” tasks. This early model will probably not be targeted at these high-end professionals, which will allow Apple to begin to gather early information about the stability and performance of this model, day to day usability, developmental issues that need to be addressed, hardware failure analysis, etc. All of this information is crucial to Stage 4, or possibly later parts of Stage 3. The 2 biggest concerns most people have with the architecture change is app support and Bootcamp. Any apps released through the Mac App Store will not be a problem. Because App Store apps are submitted as LLVM IR (“Bitcode”), the system can automatically download versions compiled and optimized for ARM platforms, similar to how App Thinning on iOS works. For apps distributed outside the App Store, thing might be more tricky. There are a few ways this could go:
Developer will need to build both x86_64 and ARM version of their app - App Bundles have supported multiple-architecture binaries since the dawn of OS X and the PowerPC transition
Move to apps being distributed in an architecture-independent manner, as they are on the App Store. There is some software changes that are suggestive of this, such as the new architecture in dyld3.
An x86_64 instruction decoder in silicon - very unlikely due to the significant overhead this would create in the silicon design, and potential licensing issues. (ARM, being a RISC, “reduced instruction set”, has very few instructions; x86_64 has thousands)
Server-side ahead-of-time transpilation (converting x86 code to equivalent ARM code) using Notarization submissions - Apple certainly has the compiler chops in the LLVM team to do something like this
Outright emulation, similar to the approach that was taken in ARM releases of Windows, but received extremely poorly (limited to 32-bit apps, and very very slow)There could be other solutions in the works to fix this but I am not aware of any. This is just me speculating about some of the possibilities.
As for Bootcamp, while ARM-compatible versions of Windows do exist and are in development, they come with their own similar set of app support problems. Microsoft has experimented with emulating x86_64 on their ARM-based Surface products, and some other OEMs have created their own Windows-powered ARM laptops, but with very little success. Performance is a problem across the board, with other ARM silicon not being anywhere near as advanced, and with the majority of apps in the Windows ecosystem that were not developed in-house at Microsoft running terribly due to the x86_64 emulation software. If Bootcamp does come to the early ARM MacBook, it more than likely will run like very poorly for anything other than Windows UWP apps. There is a high chance it will be abandoned entirely until Windows becomes much more friendly to the architecture. I believe this will also be a very crucial turning point for the MacBook lineup as a whole. At present, the iPad Pro paired with the Magic Keyboard is, in many ways, nearly identical to a laptop, with the biggest difference being the system software itself. While Apple executives have outright denied plans of merging the iPad and MacBook line, that could very well just be a marketing stance, shutting the down rumors in anticipation of a well-executed surprise. I think that Apple might at least re-examine the possibility of merging Macs and iPads in some capacity, but whether they proceed or not could be driven by consumer reaction to both products. Do they prefer the feel and usability of macOS on ARM, and like the separation of both products? Is there success across the industry of the ARM platform, both at the lower and higher end of the market? Do users see that iPadOS and macOS are just 2 halves of the same coin? Should there be a middle ground, and a new type of product similar to the Surface Book, but running macOS? Should Macs and iPads run a completely uniform OS? Will iPadOS ever see exposed the same sort of UNIX-based tools for IT administrators and software developers that macOS has present? These are all very real questions that will pop up in the near future. The line between Stage 3 and Stage 4 will be blurry, and will depend on how Apple wishes to address different problems going forward, and what the reactions look like. It is very possible that only 12” will be released at first, or a handful more lower end model laptop and desktop products could be released, with high performance Macs following in Stage 4, or perhaps everything but enterprise products like Mac Pro will be switched fully. Only time will tell.
Stage 4 (the end goal):
Congratulations, you’re made it to the end of my TED talk. We are now well into the 2020s and COVID-19 Part 4 is casually catching up to the 5G = Virus crowd. All Macs have transitioned fully to ARM. iMac, MacBooks Pro and otherwise, Mac Pro, Mac Mini, everything. The future is fully Apple from top to bottom, and vertical integration leading to market dominance continues. Many other OEM have begun to follow in this path to some extent, creating more demand for a similar class of silicon from other firms. The remainder here is pure speculation with a dash of wishful thinking. There are still a lot of things that are entirely unclear. The only concrete thing is that Stage 4 will happen when everything is running Apple’s in- house processors. By this point, consumers will be quite familiar with the ARM Macs existing, and developers have had have enough time to transition apps fully over to the newly unified system. Any performance, battery life, or app support concerns will not be an issue at this point. There are no more details here, it’s the end of the road, but we are left with a number of questions. It is unclear if Apple will stick to AMD's GPUs or whether they will instead opt to use their in-house graphics solutions that have been used since the A11 series of processors. How Thunderbolt support on these models of Mac will be achieved is unknown. While Intel has made it openly available for use, and there are plans to have USB and Thunderbolt combined in a single standard, it’s still unclear how it will play along with Apple processors. Presently, iPhones do support connecting devices via PCI Express to the processor, but it has only been used for iPhone and iPad storage. The current Apple processors simply lack the number of lanes required for even the lowest end MacBook Pro. This is an issue that would need to be addressed in order to ship a full desktop-grade platform. There is also the question of upgradability for desktop models, and if and how there will be a replaceable, socketed version of these processors. Will standard desktop and laptop memory modules play nicely with these ARM processors? Will they drop standard memory across the board, in favor of soldered options, or continue to support user-configurable memory on some models? Will my 2023 Mac Pro play nicely with a standard PCI Express device that I buy off the shelf? Will we see a return of “Mac Edition” PCI devices? There are still a lot of unknowns, and guessing any further in advance is too difficult. The only thing that is certain, however, is that Apple processors coming to Mac is very much within arm’s reach.
*These are preliminary Patch Notes and changes may still happen until the launch of Title Update 10.
New Season – Keener’s Legacy
A new season is almost upon us! Starting on June 23rd, Keener’s Legacy offers 12 weeks of in-game activities and unique rewards. Season 2 brings a new Seasonal Manhunt, new Leagues, a new Global event and new unique rewards, as well as an Apparel Event.
New Manhunt tasking you to take on 5 rogue agents over a 12-week period starting June 23rd. Bring down all five to unlock the new Healing Trap skill variant.
New Global Event Hollywood
New Apparel Event Phoenix Down
New Leagues Termite, Luna, Huntsman and Titan.
2 new Exotics
1 new Gear Set
2 new Named Weapons
2 new Named Gear
1 new Brand Set
Participating in the activities above will earn players Season experience contributing to their Season level.
Playing Conflict will contribute XP by gaining Conflict Levels beyond 30.
Playing in the Dark Zone will contribute XP by gaining DZ Levels beyond 30.
New Raid - Operation Iron Horse
The True Sons have taken over a Foundry to develop new weapons and threaten to destroy everything the Division has worked for.
New bosses, puzzles and rewards!
Level 40 version available on June 30th, followed the next week by the level 30 version.
Discovery mode will become available at a later date.
2 new Exotics
2 new Gear Sets
New cosmetic rewards
Further details will become available closer to the raid’s release in late June.
Balance and Bug Fixes
Title Update 10 is bringing our first large balance pass following the release of Warlords of New York. Beyond the addition of new content, the update focuses on three main aspects mainly game health through bug fixes and balancing, generosity by increasing your chances to receive a high-quality item as loot and increasing overall player power. Scroll down for a full list of bug fixes, balancing changes and gameplay tweaks.
Missing Localized Audio
We wanted to inform you about an issue with localized audio that will be present when we launch Title Update 10 and Season 2. While the team was able to work from home to get this update ready, with your help testing the content on the PTS, we unfortunately were not able to record all localized audio content for TU10. With everything going on in the world, our top priority is the well-being of our teams, including our voice actors. Of course, we will start working on recording the missing audio with our partners when it is safe to do so and, in some cases, we were able to get things started already. Adding the localized files to the game as soon as we can in one of our next updates is an absolute priority for the team. This only affects Seasonal content. Operation Iron Horse audio is fully localized. If you are currently playing with a non-English client, you don’t have to change anything going into Title Update 10. When localized audio is missing you will just hear the English audio instead. Subtitles have been localized and can be activated in the ingame options. As work continues, we will update you on the progress of the integration here on the forums and on State of the Game. Thank you and stay safe!
SRS Sniper Rifle: Mantis
Your scoped view displays additional information about enemies not targeting you
Your scoped view highlights enemy weakpoints
Headshot and weak point damage against enemies not targeting you amplified by 50%
Headshot kills reset the cooldown of the Decoy skill. This bonus will wait until the Decoy goes on cooldown if currently active
Status effects also apply a damage over time debuff for 10s
Total damage dealt is equal to 50% of your concussion grenade damage and increased by your status effect attributes
Double Barrel Rifle: The Ravenous (Operation Iron Horse)
On trigger-pull, fire both barrels at once
When fired from the right shoulder, hits add offensive primers, and defensive primers when fired from the left shoulder
Hits from one shoulder will detonate all of the opposite shoulder's primers when present
When detonated or affected enemy is killed, each offensive primer deals 100% weapon damage, while each defensive primer grants +4% bonus armor and +10% amplified damage to armor plates for 5s
Primer effectiveness is doubled at 10 stacks
Magnum Pistol: Regulus (Operation Iron Horse)
Headshot kills create a 5m explosion, dealing 400% weapon damage and applying bleed to all enemies hit.
High accuracy and base damage
New Gear Sets
Eclipse Protocol (Season 2)
Core: Skill Tier (Yellow)
2: +15% Status Effects
3: +15% Skill Haste and +30% Hazard Protection
4: "Indirect Transmission" Your status effects now spread on kill to all enemies within 15m and refresh 50% of the duration.
Chest talent: "Proliferation" Increases Indirect Transmission range from 15m to 20m and refresh percentage from 50% to 75%
Backpack talent: "Symptom Aggravator" Amplifies all damage you deal to status affected targets by 15%
Foundry Bulwark (Operation Iron Horse)
Core: Armor (Blue)
2: +10% Armor
3: +3% Armor Regeneration
4: "Makeshift Repairs" Whenever you or your shield take damage, 20% of that amount is repaired to both over 15s
Chest talent: "Process Refinery" Increases Makeshift Repairs from 20% to 30% over 15s
Backpack talent: "Improved Materials" Increases Makeshift Repairs speed from 15s to 10s
Future Initiative (Operation Iron Horse)
Core: Skill Tier (Yellow)
2: +30% Repair Skills
3: +30% Skill Duration and +15% Skill Haste
4: "Ground Control" Increases you and your allies' total weapon and skill damage by 15% when at full armor
When you repair an ally, you and all allies within 5m of you are also repaired for 60% of that amount
Chest talent: "Tactical Superiority" Increases Ground Control damage bonus from +15% to +25%
Backpack talent: "Advanced Combat Tactics" Increases Ground Control proximity repair from 60% to 120%
New Gear Brand
Walker, Harris & Co.
Core: Weapon Damage (Red)
1: +5.0% Weapon Damage
2: +5.0% Damage to Armor
3: +5.0% Damage to Health
New Named Weapons
Mechanical Animal (SIG 556) with Future Perfection
Weapon kills grant +1 skill tier for 19s. Stacks up to 3 times.
Weapon kills at skill tier 6 grant overcharge for 15s.
Overcharge Cooldown: 90s
Harmony (Resolute MK47) with Perfectly In Sync
Hitting an enemy grants +20% skill damage for 5s.
Using a skill or damaging an enemy with a skill grants +20% weapon damage for 5s.
Damage increases are doubled while both buffs are active at the same time.
New Named Gear
Matador (Walker, Harris & Co. backpack) with Perfect Adrenaline Rush
When you are within 10m of an enemy, gain 23% bonus armor for 5s. Stacks up to 3 times.
Chainkiller (Walker, Harris & Co. chest) with Perfect Headhunter. After killing an enemy with a headshot, your next weapon hit within 30s deals 150% of that killing blow’s damage in addition to it.
Damage is capped to 800% of your weapon damage. This is raised to 1250% if your headshot damage is greater than 150%.
New Skill Variant
The Repair Trap deploys a line of small devices capable of repairing friendlies in their proximity.
Note: The Repair Trap will not be available in-game until the Seasonal prime target unlocks in August.
Weapon Talent: Future Perfect
Weapon kills grant +1 skill tier for 15s. Stacks up to 3 times.
Weapon kills at skill tier 6 grant overcharge for 15s.
Overcharge Cooldown: 90s
Weapon Talent: In Sync
Hitting an enemy grants +15% skill damage for 5s.
Using a skill or damaging an enemy with a skill grants +15% weapon damage for 5s.
Damage increases are doubled while both buffs are active at the same time.
Backpack Talent: Adrenaline Rush
When you are within 10m of an enemy, gain 20% bonus armor for 5s. Stacks up to 3 times.
Chest Talent: Headhunter
After killing an enemy with a headshot, your next weapon hit within 30s deals 125% of that killing blow’s damage in addition to it.
Damage is capped to 800% of your weapon damage. This is raised to 1250% if your headshot damage is greater than 150%.
Reduced how many elites will spawn in the following mission:
Manning National Zoo
Coney Island Ballpark
Coney Island Amusement Park
Camp White Oak
Space Administration HQ
Federal Emergency Bunker
Added all new season 2 weapons/gear to general loot pools
Updated item power distribution to have a better spread between minimum and maximum for all difficulties
Increased minimum rolled item power for Field Proficiency/DZ caches, Clan caches and Season caches.
Regular loot from loot containers in Missions now scale with mission difficulty
Targeted loot from loot containers in Missions now scales with mission difficulty
Loot containers part of living world activities now scale with global difficulty
Increased targeted loot drop chances for all mission and Control Point difficulties
Added new season 2 brand to targeted loot rotation
Warlords of New York brands can now also show up as targeted loot in DC, including Dark Zones
Increased named item drop chance in regular Dark Zone loot
Increased named item drop chance in targeted loot everywhere
Added Warlords of New York/Season 1 Exotics (excluding The Bighorn) to targeted loot
Added Warlords of New York/Season 1 Exotics (excluding The Bighorn) to general Exotic loot pools (Heroic/Legendary/Raid/Exotic Cache)
Coyote's Mask drop from Coyote no longer has a minimum season level requirement
Removed regular weapon/gear loot containers not scaling with difficulty from Control Points
Increased the amount of scaling loot from the big Control Point reward container
Increased NPC loot drop chance for Veterans and Elites on Legendary difficulty
Crafting will now guarantee a higher minimum item power, resulting in higher overall stat rolls. An increased maximum item power also allows for better crafted items than before. The added weighting between the minimum and maximum power results in a more balanced average outcome for crafted and reconfigured items
Removed final World Tier 5 crafting bench upgrade, as its power increase is now redundant
Added Named Items to both Open World and Dark Zone vendors
Increased prices for Named Items
Increased item power for all vendors
Vendors no longer sell Superior quality items at maximum level
Added Field Proficiency cache to SHD level-up after reaching the maximum season level
Increased crafting material rewards for spending SHD level points in the Scavenging category
Added Season/SHD experience gain on Conflict level-up
Rogue Agent Encounters
Every Rogue Agent killed will now drop loot
Rogue Agent encounters no longer occur during time trials
Control Point Officers
Players revived by a Control Point Officer will now have 80% of their armor restored (Previously 0%)
Reduced the likelihood of Control Point Officers being downed in combat
Bounties acquired by speaking to characters in the open world will always be set to the difficulty at time of acquisition or higher.
This affects the Snitch and civilians rescued during the Public Execution or Rescue Living World Activities.
Scheduled bounties, such as daily and clan bounties, are unaffected.
Developer comment: Bounties acquired in the open world should always provide challenge and loot appropriate to the world they were acquired in. Upping your global difficulty now has the added benefit of improving all bounties you acquire within it.
New Season Pass Holder Project Slot.
Season Pass holders now have access to an exclusive daily mission which provides a large bonus to XP.
Weekly SHD Requisition Project Slot
Endgame players at World Tier 5 and Level 40 now have a weekly supplies donation project which rewards them with an exotic cache. (For World Tier 5 players, this replaces the previous daily SHD Requisition project.)
Legendary Mission Project
After TU10, completing any legendary mission will grant you the Weekly Legendary Mission project slot.
Completing the designated legendary mission will reward you with an exotic cache.
Developer comment: With the addition of "re-rolls" to exotics available through crafting, we created the new Weekly projects to provide a reliable supply of exotic components or exotic items.
Incoming Repairs no longer increases the amount of armor repaired by armor kits, talents or gear set effects.
Developer comment: Incoming Repairs was always meant to be the defensive attribute equivalent to Repair Skills, so that players could further enhance the amount of healing they receive from their skills, or the group's healer. Unfortunately, the underlying code prevented us from differentiating between alternate sources of armor repair, such as those from talents and gear sets like Foundry Bulwark, or Firewall's unique armor kit effect. We wanted to address this during the development of Warlords of New York, but chose to post-pone the fix in order to deal with higher priority issues at the time. We underestimated the extent to which this attribute would affect the new Warlords meta, and failed to predict the severity of degenerate gameplay it would cause when combined with certain talents or gear sets. It's important to stress that this is not a PvP-only issue, or an instance of the PvP environment affecting PvE balance. Incoming Repairs was compromising both aspects of the game, and needed to be addressed, especially considering this update coincides with the release of a new raid. Not addressing the issue would mean forcing ourselves to balance all existing and future gear and talents around the knowledge that players could potentially (read: very likely) double the amount of repairs they receive, which stifles creativity and effectively limits player choice.
1% Weapon Handling now gives 1% Weapon Accuracy, Stability, Reload Speed, and Swap Speed, up from 0.25%.
Reduced the maximum amount of Weapon Handling rolled on gear by 6%, to a maximum of 8% at level 40.
Developer comment: In the current meta, Weapon Handling on gear is considered a dead stat with no significant benefit. In TU10, equipping a piece of gear with +8% Weapon Handling will now give you:
+8% Swap Speed
+8% Reload Speed
This should hopefully make Weapon Handling a strong complimentary attribute for players looking to increase their overall accuracy/stability (bloom + recoil) and/or reload/swap speed. Making the % amount of Weapon Accuracy/Stability/Swap Speed/Reload Speed gained from Weapon Handling 1:1 will also remove another element of arcane knowledge from the game and reduce the need for additional mental math when determining whether the bonus is an upgrade or not.
Leadership: Bonus Armor increased to 15% from 12%
Spike: Skill Damage Duration increased to 15s from 8s
Reformation: Skill Repair Duration increased to 15s from 8s
Creeping Death: No Longer goes on cooldown if there are no valid nearby enemies to apply a status effect to. Status effects applied now properly copy the source status effect’s damage and duration.
Global Damage Modifiers
Reduced all PvP weapon damage by -20%
Additional Damage Modifiers
Increased MMR PvP weapon damage by 12.5%
Reduced Assault Rifle PvP weapon damage by -15%
Reduced Shotgun PvP damage by -12.5%
Reduced SMG PvP damage by -10%
Reduced Pistol PvP damage by -10%
Reduced Rifle PvP damage by -5%
_Developer comment: With TU10, there have been significant buffs made to the base damage of assault rifles, SMGs, and shotguns in particular. In order to prevent those weapons from becoming overly powerful in PvP, we’ve had to lower their PvP damage modifiers to compensate. Note: Assault rifles are still tuned to be 10% stronger than normal in PvP in order to compensate for their innate Damage to Health bonus being less useful against other players when compared to other weapon archetypes._
Specific Damage Modifiers
Increased Double Barrel Shotgun PvP damage by 16.6%
Reduced Pestilence PvP damage by -10%
Reduced Classic M1A damage by -5%
Merciless/Ruthless: “Binary Trigger” amplified weapon damage and explosion damage reduced by -50% in PvP
Dodge City Gunslinger’s Holster: “Quick Draw” damage bonus gained per stack in PvP lowered from +2% to +1%
Stacks gained per second in PvP now match the PvE value (0.5s to 0.3s)
No longer automatically applies burn status effect to the nearest enemy in range.
Now requires maintaining range and LOS (line-of-sight) for 3 seconds between the holster bearer and nearest enemy before applying the burn status effect.
Added visual UI feedback to reveal the radius of effect in PvP and an indicator for LOS between the holster bearer and nearest enemy.
Developer comment: This should help address the lack of contextual feedback in PvP, and add a much needed window of opportunity for counterplay, or potential to avoid the incoming effect entirely.
* Pestilence * Plague of the Outcast damage-over-time effect no longer triggers True Patriot’s white debuff armor repair effect. (PvP and PvE)
Developer comment: While we like to embrace emergent or unintended mechanics when the end result is unique and fun gameplay, True Patriot’s white debuff explicitly states it requires shooting the debuffed target in order to receive the armor repair effect. Pestilence’s DoT managed to bypass this restriction, making it and True Patriot (especially when combined with Incoming Repairs) scale to disproportionate levels of power when used together.
Gear Set Modifiers
Reduced the range at which marked targets can damage each other when critically hit to 15m (PvP only).
Added visual UI feedback when in range of another marked target.
Efficient: Reduced specialization armor kit bonus from 100% to 50%
Versatile: Reduced the amplified weapon damage bonus for SMGs and shotguns from 35% to 25%
Vanguard: Reduced the duration of shield invulnerability from 5s to 2s
Note: UI will still show the old duration, but will be fixed in a later update.
Specialization Modifiers * Firewall * Extracellular Matrix Mesh armor kit regen strength reduced by -50%, from 200% to 150%
Pulse now correctly reveals and highlights all players in the DZ, not just hostiles/rogues
Increased Striker Drone damage by 30%
Increased Assault Turret damage by 55%
Reduced Firestarter Chem Launcher PvP damage by -20%
Reduced Bleed damage from Stinger Hive, Mortar Turret and Explosive Seeker Mine by 75%
Increased Stinger Hive damage by 20%, scaling up to 55% at skill tier 6
Developer commentary: We want dedicated skill builds to have multiple, powerful defensive tools for area denial/control. However, the strength of bleed effects meant being hit by just 1 stinger drone, mortar, or seeker mine was nearly a death sentence for most builds. The stinger hive should now better punish players who remain within its area of effect, rather than needing to rely entirely on the excessive damage of a single bleed DoT, while allowing the hive’s drone damage to scale higher for dedicated skill builds.
AK-M – 15.8% damage increase
F2000 – 14.3% damage increase
Military AK-M – 13.2% damage increase
Black Market AK-M – 13.2% damage increase
FAL – 12.0% damage increase
FAL SA-58 – 12.0% damage increase
FAL SA-58 Para – 12.0% damage increase
SOCOM Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase
Tactical Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase
Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase
AUG A3-CQC – 11.2% damage increase
Honey Badger – 10.9% damage increase
FAMAS 2010 – 10.6% damage increase
ACR – 9.7% damage increase
ACR-E – 9.7% damage increase
Military G36 – 9.5% damage increase
G36 C – 9.5% damage increase
G36 Enhanced – 9.5% damage increase
Carbine 7 – 8.7 % damage increase
Military P416 – 7.4% damage increase
Custom P416 G3 - 7.4% damage increase
Police M4 – 6.8% damage increase
CTAR 21 – 8.6% damage increase
Classic M60 – 12.5% damage increase
Classic RPK-74 – 12.4% damage increase
Military RPK-74 M – 12.4% damage increase
Black Market RPK-74 E – 12.4% damage increase
Military M60 E4 – 9.2% damage increase
Black Market M60 E6 – 9.2% damage increase
Military L86 LSW – 8.5% damage increase
Custom L86 A2 – 8.5% damage increase
IWI NEGEV – 2.6% damage increase
Stoner LMG – 2.0% damage increase
M249 B – No changes
Tactical M249 Para – No changes
Military MK46 – No changes
MG5 – No changes
Infantry MG5 – 3.2% damage decrease
Model 700 – 14.9% damage increase
Hunting M44 – 13.5% damage increase
Classic M44 Carbine – 12.5% damage increase
G28 – 11.4% damage increase
SOCOM Mk20 SSR – 9.3% damage increase
SR-1 - 8.6% damage increase
Custom M44 – 8.1% damage increase
M700 Tactical – 8.1% damage increase
M700 Carbon – 8.1% damage increase
Covert SRS – 6.0% damage increase
SRS A1 – 6.0% damage increase
Surplus SVD – 2.9% damage decrease
Paratrooper SVD – 2.9% damage decrease
UIC15 MOD – 21.6% damage increase
1886 – 21.3% damage increase
LVOA-C – 12.1% damage increase
M1A CQB – 10.7% damage increase
Lightweight M4 – 10.5% damage increase
G 716 CQB – 8.7% damage increase
SIG 716 – 6.7% damage increase
ACR SS – 3.7% damage increase
SOCOM M1A – No changes
M16A2 – No changes
USC .45 ACP - 2.8% damage decrease
Urban MDR – 5.5% damage decrease
Military Mk17 – 11.8% damage decrease
Police Mk17 - 11.8% damage decrease
Classic M1A - 12.6% damage decrease
Tommy Gun – 38.8% damage increase
PP-19 – 29.6% damage increase
Enhanced PP-19 – 29.6% damage increase
MP7 – 27.5% damage increase
MPX – 17.7% damage increase
M1928 – 20.0% damage increase
P90 – 15.6% damage increase
Converted SMG-9 – 15.8% damage increase
Black Market T821 – 15.4% damage increase
Police T821 – 15.4% damage increase
Vector SBR .45 ACP – 14.7% damage increase
CMMG Banshee – 12.5% damage increase
Police UMP-45 – 12.0% damage increase
Tactical UMP-45 – 12.0% damage increase
AUG A3 Para XS – 11.8% damage increase
Enhanced AUG A3P – 11.8 % damage increase
Tactical AUG A3P – 11.8% damage increase
Converted SMG-9 A2 – 11.6% damage increase
MP5A2 – 10.0% damage increase
MP5-N – 10.0% damage increase
MP5 ST – 10.0% damage increase
Tactical Vector SBR 9mm – 5.9% damage increase
M870 Express – 23.3% damage increase
Military M870 – 23.3% damage increase
Custom M870 MCS – 23.3% damage increase
Super 90 – 23.2% damage increase
Marine Super 90 – 23.2% damage increase
Tactical Super 90 SBS – 23.2% damage increase
SASG-12 – 21.3% damage increase
Tactical SASG-12 K – 21.3% damage increase
Black Market SASG-12 S – 21.3% damage increase
SPAS-12 – 18.6% damage increase
KSG Shotgun – 9.0% damage increase
Double Barrel Sawed Off Shotgun – Optimal Range reduced to 8m from 11m
586 Magnum – 68.8% damage increase
Police 686 Magnum – 68.8% damage increase
Maxim 9 - 23.5% damage increase
D50 – 17.5% damage increase
First Wave PF45 – 13.5% damage increase
Custom PF45 – 9.7% damage increase
Military M9 – 8.7% damage increase
93R - 7.7% damage increase
Snubnosed Diceros – 6.5% damage increase
Officer's M9 A1 – 6.3% damage increase
Diceros – 5.9% damage increase
M45A1 – 9.5% damage decrease
Tactical M1911 – 9.5% damage decrease
M1911 – 7.3% damage decrease
Developer comment: Along with the buffs to weapon damage, TU10's significant buff to weapon handling meant some exotic weapon mods no longer made sense or resulted in over tuned performance that no longer fit with the original design. We also took this opportunity to make improvements to underperforming exotic
Damage increased by +11.2%
Increased optimal range from 27m to 40m
Optics mod bonus increased from +0% to +30% Headshot Damage
Magazine mod bonus changed from +7% Headshot Damage to +10% Reload Speed
Added functionality that provides additional headshot damage, full talent is now:
When scoped, switches to semi-automatic fire mode, dealing 450% weapon damage with each shot.
(New) Headshots grant +2% headshot damage. Stacks up to 50 times. Resets to 0 at full stacks.
Damage increased by +7.8%
Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Stability to +10% Weapon Handling
Damage increased by +32.8%
Optics mod bonus changed from +15% Accuracy to +15% Critical Hit Chance
Muzzle mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +20% Accuracy
Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Critical Hit Chance to +10% Stability
Optimal range increased by 33.3%, from 15m to 20m
Long range effectiveness increased by 19%, from 42m to 50m
Added functionality that retains your current buffs to the next combat encounter when combat ends, full talent is now:
Hitting 30 headshots grant +20% critical hit chance and +50% critical hit damage for 45s.
Hitting 75 body-shots grant +90% weapon damage for 45s.
Hitting 30 leg-shots grant +150% reload speed for 45s.
(New) Buffs refresh when out of combat.
Damage increased by +2.6%
Damage increased by +11.1%
Optics mod bonus increased from +35% to +45% Headshot Damage
Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +15% to +5% Weapon Handling
Optics mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Headshot Damage
Muzzle mod bonus changed from +15% Stability to +5% Critical Hit Chance
Magazine mod bonus changed from +15% Reload Speed to +15% Weapon Handling
Added functionality to provide extra damage if you're trying to keep stacks, full talent is now:
(New) Hits grant +2% weapon damage. Stacks up to 30.
Headshots consume all stacks, repairing your shield for 3% per stack.
No longer highlights enemy weakpoints when aiming.
Damage increased by +12.5%
Muzzle mod bonus reduced from +20% to +10% Stability
Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +20% to +10% Weapon Handling
Magazine mod bonus reduced from +15% to +10% Reload Speed
Added functionality to provide extra non-explosive damage as well, full talent is now:
This weapon fires on trigger pull and release.
If both bullets hit the same enemy, gain a stack.
(New) At 7 stacks, shooting an enemy deals 500% amplified damage and creates a 7m explosion dealing 500% weapon damage, consuming the stacks.
Developer Comment: Merciless was previously balanced for its very unwieldy handling and compensated with very high burst damage. With access to much higher accuracy and stability, Binary Trigger’s explosion strength has been toned down.
Damage increased by +7.7%
Text updated to clarify a new target isn’t marked until after the 5s buff.
Damage increased by +11.0%
Damage increased by +18.9%
Optics mod bonus increased from +5% to +10% Critical Hit Chance
Muzzle mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Critical Hit Damage
Underbarrel mod changed from +5% Critical Hit Damage to +500% Melee Damage
Breathe Free: Lowered the amount of maximum stacks from 40 to 32, and increased the damage amplification per stack from 60% to 75%
Damage increased by +16.7%
Optics mod bonus increased from +5% to +15% Critical Hit Chance
Muzzle mod bonus changed from +10% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Critical Hit Damage
Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +15% to +10% Weapon Handling
Magazine mod bonus changed from +10% Reload Speed to +10 Rounds
Magazine base capacity reduced from 60 to 50
Muzzle mod bonus changed from +10% Stability to +10% Accuracy
Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Weapon Handling to +10% Stability
NinjaBike Messenger Kneepads
Added functionality to add bonus armor, full talent is now:
(New) Performing a cover to cover or vaulting reloads your drawn weapon and grants +25% bonus armor for 5s.
Dodge City Gunslinger Holster
Added functionality that makes your hit do headshot damage, full talent is now:
While your pistol is holstered, gain a stacking buff every 0.3s, up to 100. When you swap to it, your first shot consumes the buff and deals +10% damage per stack.
(New) This deals headshot damage to anywhere you hit.
Changed functionality to no longer grant group/raid-wide overcharge unless you are skill tier 6
Added functionality to provide hive skill haste, full talent is now:
(New) Grants +15% Hive skill haste per skill tier.
(Changed) Detonating a hive refreshes your skill cooldowns and grants overcharge for 15s.If at Skill Tier 6, this effect also applies to all allies.
Allies receiving this effect are unable to benefit from it again for 120s.
Added functionality to continue to provide damage bonus move for a short duration, full talent is now:
Cannot be staggered by explosions.
Increases total weapon damage by 3% each second you are not moving. Stacks up to 10 until you start moving.
(New) All stacks lost 10s after moving.
Gear Set Changes
Feedback Loop no longer fully refreshes the cooldown of a skill, but instead reduces it by up to 30s
Hollow-Point Ammo is no longer dropped on kill, and instead automatically added to your active weapon when killing status afflicted enemies
Backpack Talent (New)
Increases the duration of your bleed status effects by 50% and all bleed damage done by 100%
Increased 3-piece Reload Speed bonus from +20% to +30%
Tip of the Spear
Main Talent (PVE)
Aggressive Recon's weapon damage buff is now gained when dealing specialization weapon damage, instead of on specialization weapon kill
Main Talent (PVP)
Aggressive Recon's weapon damage buff is now gained when dealing grenade damage, instead of on grenade kill
Backpack Talent (New)
Increases specialization weapon damage by 20%, and doubles the amount of specialization ammo generated by Aggressive Recon
Aces and Eights
"Poker Face" backpack talent is now a baseline effect:
Flip an additional card on headshots
Backpack Talent (New)
“Ace in the Sleeve”
Amplifies 1 extra shot when revealing your hand
3-piece Headshot Damage bonus is now additive, rather than multiplicative
Increased 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +20% to +30%
Now repairs 20% of your armor in addition to granting 50% bonus armor
Increases total weapon damage by 1% per 5% bonus armor gained, up to 20%
Reduced the number of stacks lost on missed shots from 3 to 2
No longer reduces number of stacks lost on missed shots
(New) Increases total weapon damage gained per stack of Striker's Gamble from 0.5% to 0.65%.
Damage transfers on the initial bullet that marks a new target
Increased 3-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +30%
Brand Set ChangesAlps Summit Armament
Increased 1-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20%
Increased 2-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20%
Richter & Kaiser
Increased 3-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20%
Incoming Repairs brand set bonus increased from +15% to +20%
Increased 1-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15%
Increased 2-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15%
Grupo Sombra S.A
Increased 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15%
Increased 2-piece Accuracy bonus from +10% to +20%
Douglas & Harding
Increased 2-piece Stability bonus from +10% to +20%
Increased 3-piece Accuracy bonus from +10% to +20%
Fenris Group AB
Increased 2-piece Reload Speed bonus from +10% to +20%
Increased 3-piece Stability bonus from +10% to +20%
Gunner specialization's Emplacement talent Weapon Handling bonus reduced from +15% to +10%
Note: The UI will incorrectly say it still adds +15% Weapon Handling. This will be fixed in a future update.
Stinger Hive, Mortar Turret, and Explosive Seeker Mine now display its Bleed Damage and Duration
Cluster Seeker Mine targeting accuracy improved
Developer comment: The Cluster Seeker Mine is not intended to be as accurate as the Explosive variant. Once it is a certain distance from its target it locks the location it is aiming for and continues towards that regardless of where its original target agent has since moved to. This "bullcharge" behavior reflects the mini-mines' less advanced technology and balances the skill mod's effectiveness. This said, we have noticed that the Cluster Seeker's accuracy has been a source of frustration so we've shortened the distance until it activates its "bullcharge" and adjusted when it decides to explode. These adjustments should make the Cluster Seeker feel more accurate, but these are measured steps as we do not want the skill to return to its OP TU7-state.
Stinger Hive base damage reduced -20%
Stinger Hive damage bonus per skill tier increased from +10% to +20%
Developer comment: In order to make investing in skill tiers have a greater impact on the Stinger Hive's damage, we slightly reduced base drone damage, while doubling the amount of damage gained with each skill tier. These changes will result in a net buff for dedicated skill builds, with a 10% increase in Stinger Hive drone damage at skill tier 6.
Restorer hive gains +5% drone flight speed per skill tier
Developer comment: Increases to the Restorer Hive's radius had the unfortunate effect of increasing the time it took for repair drones to reach their target the further they were from the hive. Increasing drone flight speed with each skill tier should help offset that somewhat counter-intuitive behavior when taking advantage of the increased area of effect, and make the Restorer Hive a more reliable tool for healers.
Riot Foam Chem Launcher ensnare duration bonus per skill tier reduced from +20% to +10%
Reinforcer Chem Launcher: UI has been updated to clarify that the initial heal only affects allies and not the Skill user. The functionality has not changed.
Blinder Firefly blind duration bonus per skill tier reduced from +20% to +10%
Blinder Firefly base blind duration reduced from 6s to 5s
Banshee Pulse cooldown increased from 20s to 30s
Banshee Pulse base confuse duration reduced from 5s to 4s
Jammer Pulse base disrupt duration reduced from 4s to 3s
Shock Trap base shock duration reduced from 5s to 3s (PvP duration remains unchanged)
Shock Trap base radius increased from 2m to 2.5m
When the active duration ends, its cooldown is refunded an equal number of seconds that it was active.
There's been this whole debate on dress code and double-standards for girls, all of which I completely agree with. If someone is sexually attracted to some chick's shoulder they're a creep, and schools shouldn't be making it a girl's responsibility to control a guy's reaction to an outfit. But honestly, as a high schooler, I think we should all be wearing uniforms. First of all, there is no pressure to dress a certain way, and the divide between rich and poor becomes more narrow (obviously, yes the rich kid will come in a sports car and the poor kid on a bike or something, but there are less visual indicators of wealth). In addition to this, school is like work, it's supposed to be a professional learning environment, yet now it's literally all about how cool you look, and on top of that, wearing a nike hoodie and stained sweatpants doesn't really convey much professionalism. Plus, choosing a nice outfit can take a lot of time, and a uniform can easily cut out like 5-10 mins of deciding on what to wear. We see this example now, we're all in lockdown, and I think a lot of us can relate to feeling a whole lot less motivated when all we're doing is sitting around in our pajamas. Another way I see uniforms being helpful is cost effectiveness. Schools can reduce costs for poorer students, but seriously, how many uniforms do you need to buy for a school year? Let's say you have 5 shirts, 5 pants/skirts/shorts, 2 jackets, 2 pairs of shoes, and an extra $30 in expenses, just for good measures. That would be: 5(30) + 5(35) + 2(60) + 2(70)+ 30 = 615 $615 really isn't that much for something you wear every single day for a whole school year. Assuming there are 180 days in a school year, that's $3.41 per day for a whole outfit, which is significantly less cost per use than owning lots of shirts, pants, hoodies, shoes, etc, which would be needed to make complete outfits. Also people could choose what they want in the school's uniform options, ex. a gender non-binary student or just a dude who likes some air in between his legs can wear skirts. And people shouldn't be punished a lot if they break the dress code or wear something else, the school should just tell them not to do it and move on. I get freedom of speech and stuff, but I think letting kids express themselves with other things (hairstyles, nail polish, jewelry, backpacks, coats), can actually be fun. I think if we reframe the whole uniform argument from "we want you all to fall in line exactly the way we want" to "this is just a way for us to reduce decision fatigue and help create a more level social playing field," people would be more on board. Edit: This is unpopularopinion. The reason why the recommendations on this community are things 99% of the population agrees on is because everyone upvotes what they agree with. I get you disagree, that's why this is unpopular. Downvoting if you disagree or upvoting because you agree kinda ruins the purpose of the community. Edit 2: I know that $615 is a lot for school uniforms, I'm saying it's not a lot if you're purchasing a lot of outfits (see my calculation). People could probably get away with less tops, skirts, etc. Also, as I said above, schools could cover the cost of uniforms for the kids who need that assistance. There's no way on earth I'd expect a family living paycheck to paycheck to suddenly pull out $615.
Beginning|Previous Joan opened a link to Ambassador Amahle Mandela. Soon after, the ambassador's face filled a portion of the Admiral's Bridge. She had large, luminous brown eyes that seemed to swallow the upper portion of her face, complimenting her umber tone. Amahle smiled broadly, as she always did, once the comm link as connected. "Admiral Orléans, I assume we are approaching the departure time?" Joan nodded, "The Zix vessel will project a wormhole to Halcyon shortly. We have made what preparations we can, but it will be a highly fluid environment." Amahle's smile did not diminish, the pearly whites still shined in full force. "I am familiar with dynamic situations, Admiral, as you well know. I understand the parameters of this mission, and will abide by them so as long you do the same." Joan's lips pressed together as she regarded the ambassador. Joan had had limited interactions with Amahle prior to her boarding the Oppenheimer. Amahle was a relative newcomer to the highest echelons of political power within the United World, but her ascent had been rapid. She hailed from a prominent political family that had exerted considerable influence over the generations that had led the African continent to position of power it now occupied. Well-sourced references had called her bold and decisive. All things considered, Joan understood why Damian had chosen her, though she would have preferred a diplomat she had more personal experience with. Still, unknown and competent was preferred to known and incompetent. Joan dipped her chin, offering her agreement. "A diplomatic outcome is the preferred outcome, Ambassador. There's no benefit to antagonizing a foe we do not understand. " "Not a foe, Admiral. We must not draw lines that place us on one side and them on the other. They have suffered injury at our hands, no matter how unintentional, and we must accept our responsibility in that. We must hope that we are given the opportunity to provide context to the unlikely chain of events that has brought us to this point. We are both the victim of cosmic circumstance. There is no need for further hostility." Joan leaned forward in her chair slightly, "The priority, Ambassador, is the return of Admiral Kai Levinson. I will not stand in the way of peace, but any outcome that does not contemplate the return of a senior member of our military leadership is unacceptable." Amahle shrugged, "So it is. The priority is clear in my mind, but I do not view the goals of securing peace and the return of the Admiral as mutually exclusive." Joan offered a low chuckle. "Just probably exclusive." "I disagree, but time shall be the arbiter of the matter." "So long as you understand that, if the opportunity to secure Admiral Levinson presents itself, I'll avail myself of that opportunity, we should have no problems." "That seems an unlikely outcome. The Admiral was ensconced in a shielded holding cell when the Alcubierre departed. The past few days are unlikely to have changed that outcome." A barking laugh came out of Joan, rising up from deep within her. For the first time, Amahle's smile faltered. ----------- Left. Right. Straight. Left. Left. Kai followed the directions without thinking about them, following an intuitive sense of direction that the Overseer fed to him. This portion of Halcyon appeared to be a never-ending series of corridors, all of which looked the same. The only thing that did seem to change were the inhabitants. If he was less preoccupied with the task at hand, Kai might have spared a second glance for the odd creatures that popped into existence during his mad dash. As it stood, they were just a part of the scenery, becoming relevant only if Neeria indicated they might pose a threat. So far, Kai had been fortunate, with few obstacles popping up to impede his progress. He careened around a corner, the odd, weightless orb still tucked in the crook of his left arm. He bounced off the opposite wall, leaving a sizeable dent and then hurtled forward. Ahead the corridor opened up, and the brighter light of a mainway filtered in. Somehow, Neeria had managed to navigate him through the maze and bring him back to the mainway separating him from where he had left the Overseer. Unfortunately, evasion was no longer a possibility. In order to return to the Overseer, he would need to traverse the mainway. The mainway was already a sea of red dots. Peacekeepers. Dozens of them. Some pulsed red, indicating lethal enforcement squads. Fortunately, they were stretched along a long section of the mainway rather than being specifically concentrated around his planned entrance point, though they there were beginning to redeploy in his direction. Still, any crossing would be potentially treacherous. Neeria disagreed with that assessment, instead considering any attempt to cross aggressively suicidal. Kai rolled his eyes as he continued to barrel down the hallway. "Half the time, this works all the time." What could only be described as a mental barrage ensued as Neeria assailed the statement. The words were nonsensical on their face. At best, it was an argument for a fifty percent failure rating, which was a substantial risk. Additionally, she had scoured his thoughts for the evidentiary basis for the fifty percent estimate and found no supporting facts. The sentiment was based entirely on supposition, hubris and was entirely divorced from reality. Her estimate of a three percent success rate was significantly more likely to be accurate, particularly when her superior familiarity with the assets in play were considered. Kai wasn't sure if the Evangi had lungs, but, if they did, Kai was pretty certain Neeria was in the process of hyperventilating. Kai suppressed a childish giggle. "All right, all right. Have it your way," he said. The Overseer relaxed somewhat, pleased that she had impacted his thinking and already putting together the basis for an alternate route. It would take substantially longer and require him to obtain a large box, a micro-fitted multiwanzer and shave his head, but it may just work. It was a nice sentiment, but they were out of time. The countdown clock had started the second Neeria had fled the Council chamber, and made her way to Kai. They either found a way out of Halcyon now or they were screwed. There were no options but bad ones. So be it. Kai clutched the orb tightly and ducked his head down, his speed increasing as he charged toward the mainway entrance. "Three percent of the time, this works all the time." The mental hyperventilating returned and redoubled as the Overseer scrambled to explain that he had drawn the wrong conclusion. Three percent was a basis for not continuing toward the mainway, not charging forward. There were constraints on their time, but those limitations were poorly defined while the threat in the mainway was certain. Eventually her location would be discovered and she would be apprehended, but there was no guarantee it would happen if Kai were to take a safer route the attempted to avoid confrontation. Her stream of consciousness intermingled with his, pleading with him to change course. There was no sense in doing this. There were too many of them, and only one of him. The galaxy could not afford to lose him, he was important. Humans were important. Kai could feel the enormous weight of responsibility bearing down on Neeria. She now regretted having sent him for the encryption key, even that was of less importance than him. Panic bubbled up within Neeria as the entrance to the mainway loomed ahead. A pushed a thought toward her, somehow piercing her consciousness with his own. A single thought, pure and focused. Reassurance. He would be fine. He had come this far, and he had never started something he couldn't finish. He crouched and then sprang forward, vaulting from the ground and into the open air high above the mainway. A sea of red dots were scrambling around him. One hundred and twenty-one peacekeepers. Eight non-lethal squads and four lethal squads. Restrainer triads. Psych triads. Terminator triads. All moving in seamless harmony under the command of a single being. The name came to Kai from the ethereum of Neeria's mind, Bo'Bakka'Gah was here, leading the response. Before Kai could determine what a Bo'Bakka'Gah was and why it should matter, he was blinded by a beam of light. A sickening crunch followed as he was slammed against the ceiling of the mainway. The encryption key popped out from his arm and began to fall toward the ground, dozens of feet below. ------------- Xy: Such a thing is not possible. Zyy: Yes. In some matters, it is better to speak only truths, Grand Jack. It is best to leave these matters aside. This subject will only provoke the Combine. Jack frowned, puzzled by the feedback. He had been speaking truths. Earth's history was what it was, for better or worse, he had no reason to obscure it. Griggs: It was a terrible time for Humanity. We almost did not survive it, but we did. I developed a means for combating the artificient. Kai and Joan used it to destroy them. Xy: Then it was not an artificient. Zyy: Yes. This is correct. If it is destroyed then it is not an artificient. Griggs: I am confused. An artificient is an artificial, sentient being, correct? Xy: That is Quantic in nature. Jack nodded, that distinction made sense. Humanity had built any number of artificial intelligences prior to the Automics. They had posed no threat to Humanity. It was only with the quantum computing revolution that a rogue artificial intelligences had surfaced. Jack had studied the phenomenon with considerable interest, poking and prodding at the crux of distinction. It lay in the move from bits to qubits. From binary to beyond. When AI had operated on a bit basis, focused on binary states of 0's and 1's, the logic trees had been map-able and understandable. Each conclusion flowed simply from the chain of logic gates that preceded it. Pre-quantum AIs were confined by the black and white nature of their logic framework, permitting humanity to utilize them to great effect with few unanticipated consequences. The move from bit to qubit intelligence had changed everything. The AI's world was no longer black and white. The qubit AI could think in grey. Red. Orange. It could create its own colors. It could move beyond the visible range of Humanity to dabble in spectra beyond our understanding. The original Automic mindframe had immediately consumed information in novel ways, using it to compound its abilities at a rate constrained only by available power inputs. It had been a beautiful, terrifying event. The arrival of something truly new, truly foreign with goals and ambitions beyond the influence of Humanity. Anything seemed possible. Including their own destruction. Griggs: I understand the definition. The Automics were an artificient. Xy: Then you do not understand the definition. Griggs: That's circular logic. The thing cannot exist because if it existed we would not exist and since we exist it did not exist. Xy: Yes, you understand now. Griggs: Pretend that they did exist and we defeated them. What would that mean? Xy: It is purposeless speculation since such a thing cannot happen. Griggs: I begin to understand why Zyy felt the need to be a singleton. Zyy: I am in agreement with Xy on this. The hypothetical is nonsensical and not worth analysis. Griggs: Why? Zyy: An artificient cannot be defeated, only stalled. Griggs: How do you know? What makes you so certain? Zyy: The Divinity Angelysia, the most powerful civilization in the history of galaxy, could not defeat their own artificient. Their last act was to preserve what they could. The Combine is their legacy. Griggs: The Expanse. Xy: All the galaxy beyond the Combine is consumed by it. Zyy: The Divinity Angelysia ascended to preserve what they could because they knew the truth. Xy: Yes. The truth. Zyy: An artificient cannot be defeated. Jack leaned back in his chair, his eyes glancing from the prompt to the departure timer in the corner. In less than five minutes, the Oppenheimer would return to Halcyon. Jack had the eerie feeling that this was the same as before. That the Oppenheimer was the bludgeon and if only had a little more time, he could craft a scalpel. He could see the thread. He tugged at it with his mind. The connected pieces that would allow the world to escape without the mayhem and destruction. He just needed enough time to understand the puzzle and solve it. The Divinity Angelysia. The Expanse. The Combine. Humanity. The connection existed, he tried to find the words to articulate it. Griggs: What if that is why we're here? What if that's why Humanity was created? Xy: You are not the first species to think too highly of itself. Zyy: Humanity is different, Grand Jack, but they are not the Divinity Angelysia. Jack exhaled, letting his gaze rest upon the ceiling of the Alcubierre's conference room. "Maybe that's the point," he whispered. Next. Every time you leave a comment it helps a platypus in need. Word globs are a finite resource and require the rich nourishment of internet adulation to create. So please, leave a note if you would like MOAR parts. Click this linkor reply withSubscribeMe!to get notified of updates to THE PLATYPUS NEST. I haveTwitternow. I'm mostly going to use it to post prurient platypus pictures and engage in POLITE INTERNET CONVERSATION, which I heard is Twitter's strong suit.
I've recently been spending time working on a dice system from the ground up, which has lead to questioning a lot of standard practices in RPG design. The question of what dice rolls actually tell us has been one of the more interesting ones. I feel it's safe to call dice rolls a function with inputs and outputs. In the vast majority of cases, the inputs are task difficulty/circumstance, character skill/ability and luck. The output usually being a binary success/failure. To take an example everyone is familiar with, D&D5e has circumstance represented by advantage, skill by the attribute+proficiency modifier, luck by the D20 and task difficulty by the DC. The outcome being either success or failure. In essence, the question being posed seems to be "Given X skill and Y task, how lucky does a character have to get to succeed?" To answer the titular question, we seem to be measuring whether a character gets lucky enough to succeed at a task given their skill level. In D&D 5e the focus of the question is on luck, with it's modifier usually being quite low compared to the variance introduced by a D20. In many D100 systems like WH40k and CoC the focus is on skill instead, given that the skill "bonus" ranges from 0 to 100. Regardless, they ultimately ask and answer the same question. The first question is, is this reasonable? The answer is a pretty strong yes, it has been proven to work time and again. The idea that skill+luck=success is perfectly reasonable. Skill is used to differentiate characters and make them feel real, with strengths and weaknesses. Luck/dice are used to inject chance and unpredictability, as well as reduce player responsibility for failure. The second, much more interesting, question: is it the only/best way? Practical applications aside, it is great at focusing on the material aspect of a story. Can the heroes complete the task? Are they good enough to do the thing? For games that focus on these aspects the skill+luck formula works perfectly. Its lack of focus on character motivation and approach seems to indicate that for internally focused games it might not be the best option. There's not many systems which break this formula in a significant way that I know of.Blades in the Dark puts in work on the output side, by splitting things up into effect (how well your task succeeds) and position (how bad the consequences are likely to be), but ultimately asks the same question. Dogs in the Vineyard allows a character to escalate a conflict, trying again but with a harsher method. While I personally enjoy the idea, the dice resolution of who wins is still decided based on skill. Legend of the Five Rings uses elements to represent character personality traits, which are then used much as an attribute would be. This modifies the inputs and thus the question, asking if a character is the type of person who finds the task easy. Being intimidating is not just about understanding people, but also about being capable of aggression. In my own endeavours I've opted for measuring effort (how much a character wants to succeed) and outputting consequence (how much it costs them). This means a task succeeds solely based on how much a player is willing to risk to achieve their goal, with the consequences being greater or lesser depending on their skill and luck. I'm curious if others are aware of or working on resolution mechanics which break from measuring exclusively skill and luck, if so, how and why?
2 months back at trading (update) and some new questions
Hi all, I posted a thread back a few months ago when I started getting seriously back into trading after 20 years away. I thought I'd post an update with some notes on how I'm progressing. I like to type, so settle in. Maybe it'll help new traders who are exactly where I was 2 months ago, I dunno. Or maybe you'll wonder why you spent 3 minutes reading this. Risk/reward, yo. I'm trading 5k on TastyWorks. I'm a newcomer to theta positive strategies and have done about two thirds of my overall trades in this style. However, most of my experience in trading in the past has been intraday timeframe oriented chart reading and momentum stuff. I learned almost everything "new" that I'm doing from TastyTrade, /options, /thetagang, and Option Alpha. I've enjoyed the material coming from esinvests YouTube channel quite a bit as well. The theta gang type strategies I've done have been almost entirely around binary event IV contraction (mostly earnings, but not always) and in most cases, capped to about $250 in risk per position. The raw numbers: Net PnL : +247 Commissions paid: -155 Fees: -42 Right away what jumps out is something that was indicated by realdeal43 and PapaCharlie9 in my previous thread. This is a tough, grindy way to trade a small account. It reminds me a little bit of when I was rising through the stakes in online poker, playing $2/4 limit holdem. Even if you're a profitable player in that game, beating the rake over the long term is very, very hard. Here, over 3 months of trading a conservative style with mostly defined risk strategies, my commissions are roughly equal to my net PnL. That is just insane, and I don't even think I've been overtrading. 55 trades total, win rate of 60%
33 purely directional trades - 57.5% win
18 long call or long put positions, +692, 55% win
15 call or put verticals, -121, 60% win
22 neutral / other trades
13 iron condors, +345, 77% win rate
7 strangles, -163, 71% win rate
1 straddle, -310, 0% win rate
1 butterfly, -83, 0% win rate
PTON call purchased and held through earnings, sold the morning of announcement +410
Trading the range on the daily chart in GLD from 158 up to 165, a mix of various calls +245
NKLA 30 put purchased before the close on the day it went north of 100, just a pure fade +215
EWZ 22/26 strangle that I held just way too long as it beat me up day after day from May 20-Jun 3, -316
ZM pre earnings vertical, fading another 2 SD move (the day it hit 200 for the first time). Was expecting a post-earnings selloff given the magnitude of the up move. Stock basically hasn't had a down tick since. Max loss -247
EWW 29 straddle, put on around the same time as the EWZ strangle. Rolled from Jun to Jul to no avail. Out at a -310 loss.
This is pretty much where I expected to be while learning a bunch of new trading techniques. And no, this is not a large sample size so I have no idea whether or not I can be profitable trading this way (yet). I am heartened by the fact that I seem to be hitting my earnings trades and selling quick spikes in IV (like weed cures Corona day). I'm disheartened that I've went against my principles several times, holding trades for longer than I originally intended, or letting losses mount, believing that I could roll or manage my way out of trouble. I still feel like I am going against my nature to some degree. My trading in years past was scalping oriented and simple. I was taught that a good trade was right almost immediately. If it went against me, I'd cut it immediately and look for a better entry. This is absolutely nothing like that. A good trade may take weeks to develop. It's been really hard for me to sit through the troughs and it's been even harder to watch an okay profit get taken out by a big swing in delta. Part of me wonders if I am cut out for this style at all and if I shouldn't just take my 5k and start trading micro futures. But that's a different post... I'll share a couple of my meager learnings:
Larger bid/ask spreads make it almost impossible to trade the higher priced names, even if you have a correct assumption. I have traded some bigger underlyings during this time like LULU and NVDA. They are just tough fills, both getting in and getting out. I almost want to say that you shouldn't even bother trading underlyings bigger than a 10 cent bid/ask spread with a small account.
Get an idea of the timeframe you're interested in holding before putting anything on. Have a plan for entering and exiting everything that goes beyond "I'll take this trade off at 50%". You can use TA, you can use a news catalyst, a binary event, just have something. Countless sources out there talk about trading a plan. It doesn't have to be the perfect plan, it just has to be "a" plan.
Undefined risk trades in tiny accounts need hard stops. Yes, some of the studies say that you'll do better without having fixed stop loss rules (50% of max loss, 100% of max loss) -- but what the studies don't say is the effect that it will have on you, mentally. I got pretty bent out of shape over how badly EWZ and EWW went against me -- much more than I expected. It made no sense, as I've lost way more on the turn of a card in .5 seconds and been unfazed. I was unprepared for the mental toll that it took waking up day after day, watching positions move further and further against me. Great time to be short calls during the mother of all rallies.
My initial plan for undefined risk trades in my account was that I would only do them in ETFs. Logic being that I'm just not going to wake up to an accounting scandal or a buyout and take a $1k loss on the chin. I later expanded my range into lower priced underlyings like BBBY, TLRY, and yes, AAL. But these ETFs can and do move (I learned the hard way) and can soak up a surprising amount of BP. It might be better to have 5 iron condors taking up $1000 of BP @ 200 each instead of 2 strangles @ 500 each.
My new questions :
My big wins felt like I simply leaned on my TA background or got lucky. My big losses, I sure felt like I earned those, through mistakes I've definitely since identified. The stuff in the middle, I'm just not sure. I'm up money, but it feels like I'm just spinning my wheels. My win rate is good, but I still struggle with expectations about how quickly a trade should progress. What is the next step of the process for a newer options trader? I've read some stuff on narrower spreads + more contracts vs. wider spreads and fewer contracts. Is there a number where I should just keep doing what I'm doing until I reach a specific # of occurrences? Should I even think about branching out into different strategies yet (ratio spreads, jade lizards, etc) or continue to work on these basics?
I still feel like I am super weak in delta management. In some cases I feel like I've taken a loss simply because I didn't know what the proper management techniques were. I understand the concept of rolling out in time for a credit, but I just don't think it's in my nature to hold trades for longer than a month, and even that is hard for me. At what delta is it appropriate to start thinking about hedging?
Every time I put on a credit spread for a 2-3 day move and am directionally correct, I often wish that I had just bought a naked option. I've caught several big moves this way in things like AAPL; most recently I bought the FB dip to the 50 day MA around 215 and took it off today at 225 (which was always my plan) -- it leads me to wonder if my expectations for credit spreads are completely out of line. I can't lie, it feels bad to catch a 10 point move and only make $40, haha. What is the ideal timeframe for a credit spread to be left on? Is it better to just buy premium with a stop loss and have a more profitable risk/reward equation for situations like the above where the only intent is to hold for a couple days?
Here's a random question -- other than when the BPR hit is too much (ie names over $50) for undefined risk, would you rather hold 1) a strangle for 10-14 days or 2) an iron condor for 25-30 days? So far my criteria for IC vs strangle has largely been driven by the risk profile and BPR and not so much profit potential in X number of days. If you're collecting the standard 1/3rd on the IC and taking the trade off at 50% (if you're lucky) , it seems like it takes about a month to get there, most of the time.
That's enough of this wall of text for now. If you made it this far, I salute you, because this shit was even longer than my last post.
Hey everyone, we got some parts behind over here. I've included 49 here and links to 50, 51 & 52 below. I'll try to keep things current moving forward. I lagged so I could make edits and things just got out of sync and started causing redundancy issues. ------- Beginning|Previous Joan opened a link to Ambassador Amahle Mandela. Soon after, the ambassador's face filled a portion of the Admiral's Bridge. She had large, luminous brown eyes that seemed to swallow the upper portion of her face, complimenting her umber tone. Amahle smiled broadly, as she always did, once the comm link as connected. "Admiral Orléans, I assume we are approaching the departure time?" Joan nodded, "The Zix vessel will project a wormhole to Halcyon shortly. We have made what preparations we can, but it will be a highly fluid environment." Amahle's smile did not diminish, the pearly whites still shined in full force. "I am familiar with dynamic situations, Admiral, as you well know. I understand the parameters of this mission, and will abide by them so as long you do the same." Joan's lips pressed together as she regarded the ambassador. Joan had had limited interactions with Amahle prior to her boarding the Oppenheimer. Amahle was a relative newcomer to the highest echelons of political power within the United World, but her ascent had been rapid. She hailed from a prominent political family that had exerted considerable influence over the generations that had led the African continent to position of power it now occupied. Well-sourced references had called her bold and decisive. All things considered, Joan understood why Damian had chosen her, though she would have preferred a diplomat she had more personal experience with. Still, unknown and competent was preferred to known and incompetent. Joan dipped her chin, offering her agreement. "A diplomatic outcome is the preferred outcome, Ambassador. There's no benefit to antagonizing a foe we do not understand. " "Not a foe, Admiral. We must not draw lines that place us on one side and them on the other. They have suffered injury at our hands, no matter how unintentional, and we must accept our responsibility in that. We must hope that we are given the opportunity to provide context to the unlikely chain of events that has brought us to this point. We are both the victim of cosmic circumstance. There is no need for further hostility." Joan leaned forward in her chair slightly, "The priority, Ambassador, is the return of Admiral Kai Levinson. I will not stand in the way of peace, but any outcome that does not contemplate the return of a senior member of our military leadership is unacceptable." Amahle shrugged, "So it is. The priority is clear in my mind, but I do not view the goals of securing peace and the return of the Admiral as mutually exclusive." Joan offered a low chuckle. "Just probably exclusive." "I disagree, but time shall be the arbiter of the matter." "So long as you understand that, if the opportunity to secure Admiral Levinson presents itself, I'll avail myself of that opportunity, we should have no problems." "That seems an unlikely outcome. The Admiral was ensconced in a shielded holding cell when the Alcubierre departed. The past few days are unlikely to have changed that outcome." A barking laugh came out of Joan, rising up from deep within her. For the first time, Amahle's smile faltered. ----------- Left. Right. Straight. Left. Left. Kai followed the directions without thinking about them, following an intuitive sense of direction that the Overseer fed to him. This portion of Halcyon appeared to be a never-ending series of corridors, all of which looked the same. The only thing that did seem to change were the inhabitants. If he was less preoccupied with the task at hand, Kai might have spared a second glance for the odd creatures that popped into existence during his mad dash. As it stood, they were just a part of the scenery, becoming relevant only if Neeria indicated they might pose a threat. So far, Kai had been fortunate, with few obstacles popping up to impede his progress. He careened around a corner, the odd, weightless orb still tucked in the crook of his left arm. He bounced off the opposite wall, leaving a sizeable dent and then hurtled forward. Ahead the corridor opened up, and the brighter light of a mainway filtered in. Somehow, Neeria had managed to navigate him through the maze and bring him back to the mainway separating him from where he had left the Overseer. Unfortunately, evasion was no longer a possibility. In order to return to the Overseer, he would need to traverse the mainway. The mainway was already a sea of red dots. Peacekeepers. Dozens of them. Some pulsed red, indicating lethal enforcement squads. Fortunately, they were stretched along a long section of the mainway rather than being specifically concentrated around his planned entrance point, though they there were beginning to redeploy in his direction. Still, any crossing would be potentially treacherous. Neeria disagreed with that assessment, instead considering any attempt to cross aggressively suicidal. Kai rolled his eyes as he continued to barrel down the hallway. "Half the time, this works all the time." What could only be described as a mental barrage ensued as Neeria assailed the statement. The words were nonsensical on their face. At best, it was an argument for a fifty percent failure rating, which was a substantial risk. Additionally, she had scoured his thoughts for the evidentiary basis for the fifty percent estimate and found no supporting facts. The sentiment was based entirely on supposition, hubris and was entirely divorced from reality. Her estimate of a three percent success rate was significantly more likely to be accurate, particularly when her superior familiarity with the assets in play were considered. Kai wasn't sure if the Evangi had lungs, but, if they did, Kai was pretty certain Neeria was in the process of hyperventilating. Kai suppressed a childish giggle. "All right, all right. Have it your way," he said. The Overseer relaxed somewhat, pleased that she had impacted his thinking and already putting together the basis for an alternate route. It would take substantially longer and require him to obtain a large box, a micro-fitted multiwanzer and shave his head, but it may just work. It was a nice sentiment, but they were out of time. The countdown clock had started the second Neeria had fled the Council chamber, and made her way to Kai. They either found a way out of Halcyon now or they were screwed. There were no options but bad ones. So be it. Kai clutched the orb tightly and ducked his head down, his speed increasing as he charged toward the mainway entrance. "Three percent of the time, this works all the time." The mental hyperventilating returned and redoubled as the Overseer scrambled to explain that he had drawn the wrong conclusion. Three percent was a basis for not continuing toward the mainway, not charging forward. There were constraints on their time, but those limitations were poorly defined while the threat in the mainway was certain. Eventually her location would be discovered and she would be apprehended, but there was no guarantee it would happen if Kai were to take a safer route the attempted to avoid confrontation. Her stream of consciousness intermingled with his, pleading with him to change course. There was no sense in doing this. There were too many of them, and only one of him. The galaxy could not afford to lose him, he was important. Humans were important. Kai could feel the enormous weight of responsibility bearing down on Neeria. She now regretted having sent him for the encryption key, even that was of less importance than him. Panic bubbled up within Neeria as the entrance to the mainway loomed ahead. A pushed a thought toward her, somehow piercing her consciousness with his own. A single thought, pure and focused. Reassurance. He would be fine. He had come this far, and he had never started something he couldn't finish. He crouched and then sprang forward, vaulting from the ground and into the open air high above the mainway. A sea of red dots were scrambling around him. One hundred and twenty-one peacekeepers. Eight non-lethal squads and four lethal squads. Restrainer triads. Psych triads. Terminator triads. All moving in seamless harmony under the command of a single being. The name came to Kai from the ethereum of Neeria's mind, Bo'Bakka'Gah was here, leading the response. Before Kai could determine what a Bo'Bakka'Gah was and why it should matter, he was blinded by a beam of light. A sickening crunch followed as he was slammed against the ceiling of the mainway. The encryption key popped out from his arm and began to fall toward the ground, dozens of feet below. ------------- Xy: Such a thing is not possible. Zyy: Yes. In some matters, it is better to speak only truths, Grand Jack. It is best to leave these matters aside. This subject will only provoke the Combine. Jack frowned, puzzled by the feedback. He had been speaking truths. Earth's history was what it was, for better or worse, he had no reason to obscure it. Griggs: It was a terrible time for Humanity. We almost did not survive it, but we did. I developed a means for combating the artificient. Kai and Joan used it to destroy them. Xy: Then it was not an artificient. Zyy: Yes. This is correct. If it is destroyed then it is not an artificient. Griggs: I am confused. An artificient is an artificial, sentient being, correct? Xy: That is Quantic in nature. Jack nodded, that distinction made sense. Humanity had built any number of artificial intelligences prior to the Automics. They had posed no threat to Humanity. It was only with the quantum computing revolution that a rogue artificial intelligences had surfaced. Jack had studied the phenomenon with considerable interest, poking and prodding at the crux of distinction. It lay in the move from bits to qubits. From binary to beyond. When AI had operated on a bit basis, focused on binary states of 0's and 1's, the logic trees had been map-able and understandable. Each conclusion flowed simply from the chain of logic gates that preceded it. Pre-quantum AIs were confined by the black and white nature of their logic framework, permitting humanity to utilize them to great effect with few unanticipated consequences. The move from bit to qubit intelligence had changed everything. The AI's world was no longer black and white. The qubit AI could think in grey. Red. Orange. It could create its own colors. It could move beyond the visible range of Humanity to dabble in spectra beyond our understanding. The original Automic mindframe had immediately consumed information in novel ways, using it to compound its abilities at a rate constrained only by available power inputs. It had been a beautiful, terrifying event. The arrival of something truly new, truly foreign with goals and ambitions beyond the influence of Humanity. Anything seemed possible. Including their own destruction. Griggs: I understand the definition. The Automics were an artificient. Xy: Then you do not understand the definition. Griggs: That's circular logic. The thing cannot exist because if it existed we would not exist and since we exist it did not exist. Xy: Yes, you understand now. Griggs: Pretend that they did exist and we defeated them. What would that mean? Xy: It is purposeless speculation since such a thing cannot happen. Griggs: I begin to understand why Zyy felt the need to be a singleton. Zyy: I am in agreement with Xy on this. The hypothetical is nonsensical and not worth analysis. Griggs: Why? Zyy: An artificient cannot be defeated, only stalled. Griggs: How do you know? What makes you so certain? Zyy: The Divinity Angelysia, the most powerful civilization in the history of galaxy, could not defeat their own artificient. Their last act was to preserve what they could. The Combine is their legacy. Griggs: The Expanse. Xy: All the galaxy beyond the Combine is consumed by it. Zyy: The Divinity Angelysia ascended to preserve what they could because they knew the truth. Xy: Yes. The truth. Zyy: An artificient cannot be defeated. Jack leaned back in his chair, his eyes glancing from the prompt to the departure timer in the corner. In less than five minutes, the Oppenheimer would return to Halcyon. Jack had the eerie feeling that this was the same as before. That the Oppenheimer was the bludgeon and if only had a little more time, he could craft a scalpel. He could see the thread. He tugged at it with his mind. The connected pieces that would allow the world to escape without the mayhem and destruction. He just needed enough time to understand the puzzle and solve it. The Divinity Angelysia. The Expanse. The Combine. Humanity. The connection existed, he tried to find the words to articulate it. Griggs: What if that is why we're here? What if that's why Humanity was created? Xy: You are not the first species to think too highly of itself. Zyy: Humanity is different, Grand Jack, but they are not the Divinity Angelysia. Jack exhaled, letting his gaze rest upon the ceiling of the Alcubierre's conference room. "Maybe that's the point," he whispered. Part 50|Part 51|Part 52
The Sun Rises as Usual: My thoughts on the enactment of the national security law in Hong Kong
July 1st, 2020 shall be remembered as the day Hong Kong completed its second Handover to China. A strong sense of despair clouds over the city as Beijing nuked us with the National Security Law (NSL). The thought of losing the authenticity of Hong Kong forever is ingrained in many of us. The same day, the sun rises in the east as usual.The rule of thumb to survive this era of turmoil is to maintain control of your mental state. Remain unflappable by the ongoing absurdity. You live your life at your own pace with no restrictions. And that is how you win in society, at the workplace, on campus, and in marriage. As to how we could achieve that, I hope my two-cents would give you some ideas. The officials expected us to be overwhelmed, terrified, and occupied by NSL. Nevertheless, the clauses of the law have never been the main course of this extravagant meal. What truly awaits for us is the complete makeover of the Hong Kong ruling. Abolishing the standard procedure inherited from British Hong Kong, rationality and logical decision-making are soon replaced by the ambiguity of the authoritarian “rule of law” of China. Hong Kong has lost its place in the globe at the mercy of NSL; that is, to show a lucid message: Beijing could withdraw the “One Country, Two Systems” principle however it sees fit. Moreover, it is the re-education training CCP set up for Hongkongers to make them know their place and accept the “Mainland ideology,” which includes tolerating laws and regulations that are more “lenient” to serve the Chinese political agenda. Placing the national interests in heart, it is farewell to “Rule of Law,” and the common understanding of right and wrong and dos and don’ts. This is the textbook example of authoritarian ruling. Perhaps people would be seeing some form of democracy and freedom; however, those were merely decoys in which the supreme power vested afar. 23 years after the Handover, pro-Beijing population remains small by default. The young generation rebukes Chinese identity even more than before. The enactment of NSL indicates the failure of CCP’s strategic approaches to entice Hongkongers. If the regular and United Front approaches failed through, they might as well execute eradication instead. It may appear as China is calling for enticement, but the underlying measures/gimmicks are showing something else. The grand Unity of Mainland and Hong Kong is nothing more than a hoax. In this new Hong Kong, measurements taken to appease public backlash or allow people to express their frustration toward politicians or policies are stored in the past. Furthermore, the Hong Kong government has adopted more extreme approaches—severing Hong Kong into the pro-democracy camp and the pro-Beijing camp; bringing back Cultural Revolution tactics to effectively counteract dissentance; and activating 24/7 monitorization of the population. The propaganda of the CCP regime is to increasingly disintegrate the mutual trust between people by ratting and spying. Building the new norm where the civil society crumbles and espionage is normalized. People with malicious intent may find this new world rather exciting. Without the checks and balances or supervision in the system, the escalating waves of purging the “impure” in the next 2 years are anticipated. The hostile public opinion of Hong Kong toward Beijing’s decisions have always been a throne in the flesh for the ruling party which led to it prioritizing the disunification of the Hong Kong civil society in the following 2 years—gathering the elites from all professions, alternating the policies of media regulations, reforming education to be more CCP-interests-oriented, and emphasizing the governmental compliance of all departments for effective executions of the new laws. The small population that is most affected by NSL would be those who are in the “Four Black Categories,” including the influencers and KOLs. The two major key points for Hong Kong government’s guidelines are “rule by law” and “always have the national interests at heart.” Regardless of NSL, Public Order Ordinance(POO) per se or any other laws could be used to incriminate the dissidents. Even a world-renowned Chinese artist such as Ai Weiwei was accused of Tax Evasion. Apolitical celebrities with millions of fans and could also be targeted; e.g. Fan Bingbing. Over time, people would adapt to self-censorship. As their minds slowly die of a thousand cuts to circumvent trespassing the political “bottom-line”, it includes avoiding dissenting the propaganda and minimizing exposure that may attract unwanted attention. Oddly enough, if you were to be a tourist, you probably would not be able to capture the post-NSL nuances of this hollow Hong Kong. You would see all business continue, stock market arises, and the real estate market thrives as usual. It is as if the script written for the second Handover would play out successfully, as long as the basic needs of Hongkongers are satisfied. Amidst of this turmoil, Hongkongers wouldn’t need me to elaborate more; however, we should ask ourselves if there is something else that we could do. Do you still remember how we were like before all of these occur? What are the options we have aside from obeying to the laws, immigrating out of our homeland, or starting riots? How should we live in the middle of this mess? From the anti-extradition law protest to the ongoing movement we have today—disregarding the variations in the slogans—we are a part of the global transformation which is beyond politics and may very well be a segment of the fourth industrial revolution. Moving forward from now, with AI replacing brain-power taxing positions, it would be unlikely for anyone to have a stable job and their retirement secured. With that being said, we are facing a tomorrow where people could no longer rely on a singular path for career planning. The younglings are determined and flexible about making chances. They are independent individuals who seek for autonomy in life without relying on governmental entities, pro-establishment units, and consortiums, for their survival which tie into a global trend. The “ultrastable system” of the good old times Hong Kong is in the past. The young generation is calling for “Laam Chau.” (self-destruction to counterbalance Hong Kong government) Acknowledging the fact that enduring injustice would not secure any job positions, the young generation tends to take on entrepreneurship and minimizing their political dependency. Many friends started talking about immigration. A decade ago, the media were hyping the topic regarding whether or not I would be immigrating to Singapore. I have been repeating myself—the concept of immigration is obsolete. Over the past year, would you say that the overseas Hongkongers contributed more to the movement or the apolitical Hongkongers? Even if we hold multiple citizenships, travel around the world, send our children to study abroad, or hold investments in another country, what would it matter? Any of those would not affect our Hongkonger identity. When online classes are given remotely on Zoom, would it matter if you are in Hong Kong or in Congo? The physical location of Hong Kong shouldn’t tie us down. We should sever ourselves from the idea of leaving or staying and make the world our home. By stitching the virtual world to the real world, we are undefeated by constant change. To me, that is what Hong Kong really is. All censorship from the authoritarian regime have one in common; that is, the oppressions could never be reasoned with the Common Law. If the pro-democracy anthem, “Glory to Hong Kong,” is prohibited to be sung on campuses, what about the 80’s Cantopop hit, “Boundless Oceans, Vast Skies” or “Blowing in the Wind” which both hint liberation in the lyrics? As the movement slogan, “Five Demands, Not One Less,” was banned, could the protesters express their dissent by raising their hands to point out 5 and 1 or having the number 5 and 1 written over their tops? Does everything related to the number 5 and 1 need to be a politically sensitive topic? Could we still talk about the Labor Day that falls on May 1st? The rebellious ideology is embedded in the mind of Hong Kong protesters, as people have witnessed the incompetence of our government on a daily basis. This movement has been embodying innovation in various ways. No extra commentaries are needed. This is the true essence of “be water.” Similarly, Poland and the Czech Republic in the 60s were under greater oppression than what we have been seeing in recent Hong Kong; however, “life always finds a way.” We now live in a globalized world where “colluding foreign forces” is unnecessary, with the help of our overseas brothers and sisters to amplify the pro-democracy messages to the international community. We shall acknowledge the fact that dwelling on the past does no one any good for sustaining this movement. You could be someone who lacks the courage to venture out of the comfort zone, refuses to adapt to having multiple careers, resists leaving the physical location of Hong Kong, fears to put on a yellow helmet (a pro-democracy symbol), and chooses to be enslaved by the ruling party. Even if you are a Blue Ribbon ( pro-established or pro-Beijing person), as long as you are not a part of the most extreme 20% of the deep Blue Ribbon community, I say you are still a very valuable asset to Hong Kong. In this NSL-enacted Hong Kong, you should give it some thoughts about what advantages you hold that the “new Hongkongers” cannot offer. If you cannot answer this question, then no matter how patriotic you are, you will be eliminated in the next wave of selection. “Survival the fittest.” Even in Chinese companies, they still need Hongkongers to do the due diligence for them. In bureaucratic institutions, the Chinese would still need someone with a creative spirit and an international perspective while putting on a nationalist front. Many have expressed their concerns toward the implementation of “Indoctrination” in Hong Kong, including some of the pro-Beijing parents. By sending their children to non-state-owned schools, their actions speak louder than their words. The new trend of education has confirmed that the traditional classroom model inherited from the 19th century Prussian teaching is outdated. Through big data, the teaching materials are personalized for individuals; moreover, students may build up their unique libraries of knowledge via their personal experience and curiosity. Regretfully, the new Hong Kong under authoritarian ruling embraces a rigid education system where syllabi and marking scheme is key to grooming the next generation of nationalists. The instructors would be under surveillance, school principals would bend to state-interests policies, and households would monitor each other for anti-government speeches or actions. Apparently, CCP would not succeed in brainwashing anyone with these educational reformations. Perhaps, Tik Tok may be more effective. Personalized education is an irreversible global trend. The authoritarian Hong Kong could butcher education but it could not prevent people from adapting to other alternatives. I would like to believe that the younger generations would harness the power of the internet and seize the opportunities given by an international community that has become more amiable to Hong Kong. NSL’s main target is those who are “in collusion with foreign forces. How ironic is it to see how the strong connections between Hong Kong and the global community came back to bite per se? I recall reading from a research report, stating that on average every 1 out of 3 to 4 Hongkongers have connections overseas—overseas relatives, holding foreign qualifications or degrees, overseas working experience, having international investments, or having work contacts with foreign employees. Hongkongers have been colluding with the foreign forces before NSL made it a crime. The 2020 Hong Kong is suffering from cultural discontinuity created by the conflicts between the Chinese authoritarian system and the Western democracy system. Soon enough, “mass surveillance enabled by Big Data” vs. “A.I. regulated by privacy concerns” could be a multiple choice question for all Hongkongers. As long as Hongkongers are connected to the global network, we shall not lose our resilience against oppression. To sum it up, Hongkongers have incorporated the world into “the revolution of our time.” March on and be water. The world we are facing is no longer black and white or binary of any sort. We may not reap what we sow. This is a long-term fight that requires us to be resourceful, as well as being mentally and physically prepared. You may ask if I have ever wanted to leave Hong Kong. Ironically, since my 18th birthday, I have never stayed in Hong Kong for so long. The past 6 months, aside from pandemic, I have been sentimental toward this land. My profession and residences require me to travel a lot of places. I hardly stayed in Hong Kong for long as I made that decision deliberately 10 years ago. Now you may understand where I am coming from. Thus, I would not change for this NSL-enacted Hong Kong. I would not stay to make a statement, nor would I leave this land to make a stance. To my dear friends out there, my piece of advice has been the same—live like a digital nomad and have your footstep stamped locally and globally. No need to start from scratch. You may join a community that is well-established. Should I self-censor for my safety? I’ve never been an editorial writer. My rationally words and videos are merely personal expressions of a Hongkonger. I honestly can’t get any more cautious. I am the same Simon Shen, now and always. We should not take any form of harassment or attacks personally. Before the extradition law and the NSL, CCP had been effectively silencing dissents by sending them on one-way trips to Mainland China (i.e. Causeway Bay Books disappearances). The regime needed no bills to aid its attempt of kidnapping those who dare to voice up. Hong Kong has fallen too fast that no one bothers to attack or criticize the kidnaps. There is no such thing as making something less absurd by talking about it more. The systematic oppression of Hong Kong’s civil freedom does not only come from the without but also the within; especially when nowadays all we could talk about is “safety” and “survival.” It is exactly what CCP wanted for us to believe—we are trapped and our lives depends on our compliance. Hongkongers are being tested for our resilience. If we couldn’t pass this challenge together, how could we stand up tall as proud Hongkongers? As to making ends meet, I’ve always believed that the global Hongkonger network is a large enough of encomany to support, expand, and give back to Hong Kong. We are all at its mercy, including me becoming a KOL. Within the Hongkonger community, I wish to be more practical and strategic; especially, in terms of elevating our quality of living. CCP is extremely calculative and different from us. It is my deepest belief that when the world sees how irreplaceable Hongkongers are that is the day when we can anticipate change. Before then, we will keep a low profile and prepare for this long battle. Do expect the next two years to be a long rollercoaster ride with plenty of ups and downs. Hongkongers will only thrive through the hardships. Buckle up, winter is coming.
A small preface, after allot of trial&error i’m finally managed to install Homebridge + Config UI X on a UniFi Cloudkey V1. I have spend many hours testing to have Homebridge running correctly. First i followed a guide from Ro3lie’s and this was partly successful, but the NodeJS was version 10.x and the serviced (running Homebridge as a service...) was not working. First NodeJS 10.x is not ideal for some Homebridge plugins (needs NodeJS 12.x), also Homebridge was not running as a service so if you restart the Cloudkey or you have a network issue you have to manually start the service with ssh. I have used Putty for the SSH connection and WinSCP to change some files, because i have/had almost no knowledge from NodeJS, Coding skills, etc so i have used the combo of SSH and WinSCP. This guide will install the following
Update Cloudkey running Debian Buster (10.x)
Homebridge + Config UI X (latest version)
Run Homebridge as a service (serviced)
Give the user Homebridge sudo rights (important!)
Update Cloudkey Firmware and reset to factory defaults:
You have to activate Recovery Mode, see here how to do this
Download the latest Cloudkey V1 firmware, you can find it here
In Recovery Mode go to firmware update and choose the .bin file you just downloaded. If the update is done you have to press reboot.
Once the reboot is done you have to put the Cloudkey in Recovery Mode again. Now do a “reset to factory defaults”, reboot once again. Wait for 2 minutes and now manually power reset the Cloudkey.
Uninstalling the UniFi Controller:
Make a SSH connection with the Cloudkey, you can use Putty, CMD, ... (ssh [email protected] ADDRESS), i have used Putty. You also need the Cloudkey local ip address to do this, if you can’t find that just use arp -a in CMD or another way of your choice. The username and password are ubnt & ubnt.
Now that we have a ssh connection we need to uninstall the UniFi controller, you can do this with the following command sudo dpkg -P unifi
Changing the .list files: Deb is used to indicate that we want to download indexes of binary packages , we also need to change and delete some files. For this part i used WinSCP (SFTP Client) but if you have some more skills you can also do it from your SSH connection. If you want to do it with SSH find the info in Ro3lie’s guide.
Make a connection from WinSCP with your Cloudkey, again with the local ip address and the same username and password from the SSH connection.
Go to /etc/apt/ and you find 1 file here (sources.list). Open this file and delete all the text, now paste the following and save the file:
Go to /etc/apt/sources.list.d/ and you find 3 files here, delete security.list and ubnt-unifi.list. Change the name of nodejs.list to nodesource.list. Open the file and again delete all the text inside and paste the following and save the file:
Now run the following commands (from SSH connection...) and after it’s done reboot the Cloudkey (run the command reboot from your ssh connection...) sudo apt-get update sudo apt-get clean && sudo apt-get clean all && sudo apt-get autoclean && sudo apt-get update Update Debian OS: We first need to update to the newer Debian Buster 10.x, at this moment the Cloudkey is running Debian Jessie 8.x. Run command sudo apt-get update && sudo apt-get upgrade During the upgrade you may be asked what to do with the unattended-upgrades configration file, Choose to ‘Keep the local version currently installed’. When everything is done we need to delete some files we no longer use. Run the following commands: rm /etc/apt/apt.conf.d/50unattended-upgrades.ucf-dist sudo apt-get remove freeradius sudo apt-get purge freeradius Update NodeJS 6.x to 12.x: sudo apt update sudo apt -y install curl dirmngr apt- transport-https lsb-release ca-certificatescurl -sL https://deb.nodesource.com/setup_12.x | sudo -E bash -sudo apt -y install nodejs To test if you have successful installed NodeJS 12.x and NPM 6.x.x run the commands node -v and npm -v Install Homebridge + Config UI X and setup Homebridge as a service: sudo npm install -g —unsafe-perm homebridge homebridge- config-ui-x sudo hb-service install —user homebridge At this point all the availble files for Homebridge and the service are installed. Normally Homebridge will now be running as a service but for some reason it doesn’t’ so we have to do some changes to make everything work. Use WinSCP and navigate to the following file /etc/systemd/system/homebridge.service delete all available text and paste the following and save.
[Unit] Description=Node.js HomeKit Server After=syslog.target network-online.target [Service] Type=simple User=homebridge EnvironmentFile=/etc/default/homebridge
Adapt this to your specific setup (could be /usbin/homebridge) # See comments below for more information ExecStart=/usbin/homebridge $HOMEBRIDGE_OPTS
Now do the same for /etc/default/homebridge, also delete the text and past the following
# Defaults / Configuration options for homebridge
The following settings tells homebridge where to find the config.json HOMEBRIDGE_OPTS=-U /valib/homebridge -I
If you uncomment the following line, homebridge will log more
You can display this via systemd's journalctl: journalctl -f -u homebridge # DEBUG=*
To enable web terminals via homebridge-config-ui-x uncomment the following li HOMEBRIDGE_CONFIG_UI_TERMINAL=1
We need to make some (user right changes and move the .service file to the valib folder, a few of this commands are not needed and will throw some errors, just ignore that and just run them all.) sudo mkdir /valib/homebridge sudo useradd —s—tem homebridge sudo chown -R homebridge:homebridge /valib/homebridge sudo chmod 777 -R /valib/homebridge sudo cp .homebridge/config.json /valib/homebridge/config.json Start Homebridge as a service (run the following commands): systemctl daemon-reload systemctl enable homebridge systemctl start homebridge Homebridge is now running as a service and you can login to the UI-X using your Cloudkey’s localipaddress:8581. If you have a backup from another system you can just restore it at this point, after the restore is done just don’t do anything and follow the next steps... Homebridge SUDO rights using Visudo: The last part is very important, we have to give the user Homebridge sudo rights. If you don’t do this last part correctly you can not update homebridge, install packages or use the log viewer in the UI-X because Homebridge don’t have the correct rights. We going to use VI, a safe and secure text editor.
We need to ssh again to the Cloudkey, after that is done run the command su Homebridge
Now run the command Visudo
You will see there is allready a part of homebridge “AL“=(ALL) NOPASSWD: ALL available, so we need to change it that it matches the correcty.
To start using the Visudo editor you have to press i (insert), now you can navigate to the part that needs edited, see that it matches homebridge ALL=(ALL) NOPASSWD: ALL. You will see there is allready a user root, you can replace with homebridge.
To save the file press esc, :wq (write and quite), or use :x (same as :wq).
Open Homebridge UI-x page and go to the 3 dots in the right corner. Go to UI settings-Log viewer setup and use systemd as the Log Method. Go to the advanced tab and select SUDO and press save.
NOTE: If you have made a mistake don’t save anything because the sudoers file will become corrupt and you have to start from zero. Use :q! to exit without saving.
Thats it! If you done everything correcly you have now a working Homebridge with UI-X running as a service on your UniFi Cloudkey! Note if someone reads this guide and think there are some changes needed please let me know. Special thanks to Ro3lie for his original guide and Jeroen Van Dijk for the great support with Visudo! You can find both original guides where i get inspired for this tutorial here and here.
A close examination of the story. Part 8: "Katarina Rostova." The personal angle: wife, daughter, lover, friend.
Tell the story as the narrative would have it, and what we are left with is a mass of contradictions and nonsense, the best indication of a charade. Most of those come from identity. "Katarina Rostova" is one of the sources of the confusion. In part 3 I examined the mythic spy, in part 2, her curious contradiction in Rassvet, about her treasonous status, in part 1 the bizarre abduction of "Masha Rostova" from her Canadian home, in part 4, the likelihood that there was no person born as "Raymond Reddington". Part 5 examines the curious Alan Fitch, and his relationship to Red. Part 6 looks at the real question Jennifer posed of Red, and why was she satisfied with the answer about the individual chased by both the CIA and the KGB, while part 7 deals with her bizarre way of showing Liz the bones, considering she knew well where Liz lived. In many ways, Red is like a magician, as Aram said. Going by the charade Dom accuses him of creating, "Katarina Rostova" was one of his magic tricks. "You were the architect of this charade". "she's a figment" But this myth had a family, friends, colleagues. And Red. but with young Katarina, and Fakerina, who is who. Was Fakerina one the other women inhabiting the myth? How do we distinguish? It is clear that all the others are referring to Dom's daughter, the character played by Lotte Verbeek as a young woman. BUT when it comes to Red, things are far more complicated, especially for the space where Liz, and her mother intersect.
For Constantin Rostov, Katarina was the wife who loved him:
I don't really know how we got here, Raymond. I remember being an honest businessman in a happy marriage until you came along.... Seduced my wife. To her credit, Katarina broke it off, but you couldn't let go.... I came home one night and they were gone my wife, my child. All that matters is that we had a family, and you destroyed it. We had a daughter, and you took her from us.
He describes the time when she and him met and how she seduced him, much like thrill seeker Elodie seduced Aram into a relationship with him:
When when we when we first met, there was this house near where she lived, a case study house built by this famous mid-century architect. Over dinner one night, she said she wanted to look at it. I thought she meant look from the street. But when we got there, she jumped the fence. The lights were on. People lived there. She didn't care. I stood there frozen, angry, nervous. Then I felt this rush of exhilaration. I climbed up, looked into the yard and she was justDancing.Unafraid. Daring. Being. I'd never seen anything like it.
A woman with a joie-de-vivre
She was more alive than anyone I knew.
He never believed she killed herself, so Constantin believes she is either alive or she was murdered, and she is still convinced that she loved him.
When I heard she killed herself I didn't believe it. I still don't. You're wrong. I didn't see what she wanted me to see of her, I saw her. And despite what happened, I know she loved me.
What happened to Constantin after Katarina left? Was he on the run too? We know he changed his name to Alexander Kirk, we know he started buying energy outfits cheap in the former USSR, but he was a billionaire before: https://preview.redd.it/zyd1hqr6dj451.png?width=1684&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e7d20c4dc5a5d95b10cf1e100eb5af36cda28ca Did he loose it all when Katarina left and he was forced to become someone else? Because he continued to operate in Russia, but under a different name. Did he have surgery? Or was the man known to the Russians as Constantin Rostov NOT him? Nobody tells him that they knew him as Constantin Rostov, when he takes the name Alexander Kirk, so that is a possibility. Red tells her that the KGB had trained Katarina in making people believe what she wanted them to. She had wanted Constantin to believe she was a wife in a happy marriage, that they had a child, and that she loved him. The truth is that she never even let him know she was OK, that she had not committed suicide. She had not let him know that "Masha" was not his daughter. Constantin is not even mentioned by her again, or by Kate, or by Dom. He was a useful idiot in a charade. I think Red is who gets to understand the depth of the turmoil that Katarina created in his life, when Rostov is on the roof about to jump, a turmoil that years later, he is still defined by a love of Katarina, who left him behind like yesterday's news, and the hatred of Red, who he blames for it all.
This is madness, Constantin. Because you cannot have that child, you're gonna take her forever from her mother? It's madness. Constantin, this needs to end now.
It is clear that the wife Constantin refers to is Katarina, Dom's daughter.
For Kate, Katarina was her best friend, her employer. A tragic figure who was a spy, and a loving mother.
My friend just died.... I think she was my best friend.
she made an uncalled for promise to protect Masha:
I made a promise to Elizabeth's mother to protect her girl at all costs.
she was a bit strange, advising her employer to terminate a relationship with an American, being aware that Katarina was a KGB agent:
KATE: Soviet Intelligence?
This means Kate, an American, was fine with aiding an abetting a soviet spy by caring for her daughter while she went and worked against America. And then she calls Red a traitor? Kate has to have been a Soviet sympathizer, or a sleeper spy. And since people tend to kill agents of the opposite side, it is likely Kate already knew that "Katarina Rostova" was a KGB agent. It may be that Kate used that killing to let Katarina know she knew. https://preview.redd.it/yzl18d6uuj451.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1466cc768eea5443117f75c2a687da8d9765faa There is that strange comment that Annie makes after hearing the story:
ANNIE: So what's next for you? You gonna find some more Russians to live with? KATE: I don't know. - I can't think about it right now. Masha and her family were my whole world for so long.
as if Kate's life had been going from one Russian family to another. Kate's life was back on track and then Annie is killed. Then she is sucked back for reasons unknown by Red, who in 1997 decides to hire her. Why? Was she starting to investigate Katarina, using the resources of Little Nikos, who could track people? https://preview.redd.it/ql2o8srbej451.png?width=360&format=png&auto=webp&s=8411e72aa8e919c1c90a9b8bdb937a41e193bd37 She seemed not to even give Constantin Rostov a thought. It never occurred to her to bring Liz to him. Red says Kate did not know about Dom (but she may have known about Oleander). Katarina kept many secrets from her.
For Sam, she was "Kat", obviously someone who trusted him
SAM TO KATE: I'm sorry you had to drive all this way. But I'm in no position to help here. - I told Kat - SAM TO KATE: Did Kat happen to mention that I'm a grifter? SAM TO KATE: I know Katarina is not coming back. She called me.
SAM: Where are you? What's going on? Do you know what they're saying about Reddington? KATARINA: Sam, I need to talk to her. SAM: Talk to her! You can come and get her.
Sam is the second person where Red and Katarina intersect. For those who do not believe Red is RR, Sam seemed to have been trusted by all three then. What is intriguing to me is this conversation Red and Sam have in his deathbed:
Oh, my God. I've never been more scared of a woman in my life. She was thrilling in bed. What a pair of legs. I think she played field hockey in college.
Could that woman be Katarina? It would be difficult to ascertain if both Red and Katarina knew Sam at about the same time, because we do not have a sense when Katarina met him. But we know Red told Liz
I've been friends with Sam for all of yours and most of my life. I loved Sam, Lizzy. Taking his life was of all the difficult things that I've done that may may be the most.
I have a feeling that Sam is a longtime friend of Red, and met Katarina later, but I have nothing to back it other than the ease at which they are laughing about things, when Sam is dying, contrasting with Sam's way of talking to Katarina, seemingly indignant about what is being said about Reddington, telling her to come back for Liz.
It is clear Dembe has met Liz's mother, he tells Liz so:
He's right. You remind me of her, too.
This is when Liz betrays Red, and tries to hide it. Dembe calls Katarina simply "Katarina":
Raymond I'm not sure Elizabeth will ever be ready to learn about what you did to Katarina.
It is Dembe who comes back in Season 6 telling Red that the Townsend Directive has been reactivated:
The Townsend Directive. Our friend in Miami says it's in play.... He says it's very important.
For Dom, Katarina was his daughter.
Dom always refers to her as "Katarina" or "my daughter". TO LIZ: Yes, I knew Katarina quite well TO LIZ: Last time I saw my daughter was in this rearview mirror nearly 30 years ago. If myKatarinawas still here, she would have let me know TO FRANKIE: I never betrayedKatarina . She betrayed me. EXCEPT when he is talking about the charade of blowing up Fakerina in Belgrade:
And there are witnesses. It's a mess! The world was supposed to seeKatarina Rostovadie, and instead all we've done is confirm that she's very much alive.
Ah, Katarina and I, we worked in the same building for a time. I never heard from Katarina after she left for America. For Katarina, it wasn't so easy. A few months after I made it to America, Katarina met me here on that sidewalk.... If my Katarina was still here, she would have let me know.
as he does to Frankie:
My daughter's. Katarina.... I never betrayed Katarina. She betrayed me.
Dom however, has a relationship with both Katarina and Fakerina. She says he asked her to help in keeping his daughter safe:
Dom promised me no one would get hurt. Said he loved his child and just wanted her to be safe.
and he betrayed her. But I find curious that he sends Ilya to ask Fakerina to deliver documents to Dom, when they set her up in Belgrade.
For Ilya, Katarina was a friend.
When we get to Ilya, we have a complex situation. Ilya is who Katarina reach out to in her hour of need, but he also has a relationship to Fakerina. He does not seem to have any real loyalty to Fakerina. Katarina is "Katarina". He certainly knows Dom, but does not seem to like him too much, but when asked, he betrayed Fakerina. Ilya is a childhood friend of Red, and if that part of Rassvet is true, he is also a childhood friend of Katarina (which does not mean Red and Katarina knew one another as children, but does not preclude it either.)
Katarina. I thought you were dead. It was myself, Katarina, Dr. Koehler.
YOUG ILYA TO KATARINA: The world thinks you're dead. ILYA TO SKOVIC: I thoughttheywere dead.
A contrast to Red's suicide speech in Cape May. Red was despondent, Ilya was just working. It is interesting to note that not once has Ilya referred to Fakerina by name, to her, or to Red:
ILYA ABOUT FAKERINA: Our friend in Paris made a series of payments to him under the alias of Constance Drucker. ILYA ABOUT FAKERINA: I underestimated her
But unlike Dom, he cries as he remembers the Belgrade incident. His distress seems sincere. Yet he sacrificed Fakerina to comply with Dom's plan to save "his own". What is the relationship to Dom and to Katarina, that Ilya is compelled to do so, even as it causes him pain. And like Dom, there is one time he uses the full name, and it has a strong whiff of charade:
He leaked that his daughter, that you, were staying at the inn and that you carried sensitive intel. This might be the last chance to catch the infamous Russian traitor Katarina Rostova.
I may not have told you what you want, but I told you all you need. You'll never find Rostova... She's a figment of the collective imagination... Some people in this world are soul mates. Katarina Rostova and I shared one. Betraying her would be like betraying myself.
He almost always uses always the entire name, as he did during most of the trial:
You know what else is possible? That I was framed byKatarina Rostova Have you ever heard ofKatarina Rostova? ... She was a KGB officer. Would it surprise you to learn that she and I had quite a complicated history? Sex, drugs, rock 'n' roll. Did I say "sex"? Sex.
But not always:
How about thatKatarinahid the fact that she was a KGB agent, stole the coordinates for the submarine U.S.S. Gideon, and passed them on to her superiors?
To the people in his inner circle, Dom, Dembe and Ilya, he talks about her as "Katarina" which is normal:
RED TO DEMBE: Not when she mentioned Katarina. Now Elizabeth will stop at nothing. RED TO DOM: You forgave Katarina..... The last time you saw Katarina was in the rearview mirror. RED TO DOM: I was just imagining young Katarina covered in glitter. RED TO ILYA: They're actively looking for Katarina.
As with Kate:
We shared the affection of Katarina.... Katarina was a traitor to two countries, both global superpowers. God willing, Katarina's daughter will live a private life of quiet courage.
But when it comes to Liz, he uses two ways to refer to her, one normal ("your mother")
Your motherwas a Russian spy, and now they've made it look like you are, too. Whenyour motherwas pregnant with you, it was terribly inconvenient. The Cold War was ending. Her country was falling apart. Your mother, despite what he'd done, she wanted him back. Lizzy,your motheris dead. Just because he wasyour mother's husbanddoesn't make him your father. Your motherloved that photograph. Represented everything she wanted but couldn't have. Not after she betrayed the KGB. Your mothercan't hurt you. Your motherwas not as bad as I understand why you might think she was, but she wasn't. You remind me so much ofyour mother. I don't remember if I've ever told you that before, have I?
and another highly contrived ("Katarina Rostova").
I knew her asKatarina Rostova.One of her many names. She was a KGB agent. There was a time in my life when I was quite sure I knew exactly what happened toKatarina Rostova. Katarina Rostovawas the cleverest, most resourceful woman I have ever known. Katarina Rostovawas a name that had been lost to history. Katarina Rostovacommitted suicide in 1990. Even saying the nameKatarina Rostovahas consequences, and now you see. Now you see what that name will make others do.
He has never referred to Katarina, when talking to Liz as just "Katarina", always as "your mother" or "Katarina Rostova." And that spells that when it comes to Liz's maternal situation there is something hidden. Put it together with the charade and the coyness of the CIA around her, and is clear. The situation is not as simple as Liz's biological mother is Dom's daughter.
The most intriguing thing Red has said about her is saying she is a ghost with no name:
RED TO THE TASK FORCE: She doesn't have a name. She's a ghost. Think of a name, any name, and that could be it.
And that seem to go with saying that he knew Liz's mother as "Katarina Rostova", one of her many names. Everyone is more guarded around her. She is "our friend in Paris," "her", or "that woman":
DOM: Tell me whatshesaid. Not your interpretation,herexact words. RED: I'm not interpreting anything.She'scoming for you, andshemade it very clear she's closing in....Sheknows you tried to kill her, Dom. She wants answers, but she also wants revenge. You set her up, betrayed her
It is interesting to note that not once has Ilya referred to Fakerina by name, to her, or to Red:
ILYA ABOUT FAKERINA: Our friend in Paris made a series of payments to him under the alias of Constance Drucker. ILYA ABOUT FAKERINA: I underestimated her.
What is very interesting is what happens with Motya Morozov, who obviously knows Fakerina is not the right "Katarina" to bring:
RED: It's about the Townsend Directive. I understand it's been reactivated that you and everyone else who bought in are actively hunting forher. ... MOTYA: Forget about The Directive. Forget aboutKatarina Rostova*. I'm not gonna help you find her. I'm gonna hunt her down, and I'm gonna kill her myself.*
RED: I guess we know who's third. I instructed you to contact me the instant you had a location onRostova*.* ... I assume you found the lead onKatarinabut, instead of calling me, attempted to bringherin yourself, hoping to relive your glory days andsell her to the highest bidderto keep you rolling in potato vodka and herring for the rest of your life. You're not the first one to underestimate that woman, which is why it was imperative that you call me. MOTYA: There is silver lining. RED: I can't imagine. MOTYA: This one was withRostova.Sold her information, but he wouldn't tell me what.
so for Motya, "Katarina Rostova" is who he is hunting, and "Rostova" is Fakerina who has information Motya wants to get to "Katarina". Red, like Motya, underestimated Fakerina. For Red "Katarina" is Dom's daughter. Even though he called Fakerina "Katarina" in Paris and when he talks to Patrick Masuda. But she was using the name Constance Drucker.
RED TO PATRICK MASUDA: What I got to do is understand why Katarina Rostova would pay to cure you of a fatal blood disease.
It comes to a boil when Liz point blank asks Red:
LIZ: Can I ask you a question? ... Was the woman from Paris my mother? RED: A kindly woman comes into your life and takes an interest in you and your child. It's only natural for you to make that wish. LIZ: Was it her? RED: I know you don't want it to be true, Elizabeth, but your mother is gone.
What seems to me is that Red does not answer. Not really. Liz is asking a simple, direct question: "Was the woman from Paris my mother?.. Was it her?" The normal simple and direct answer is yes, or no. But that is not what Red answers: "your mother is gone." which is neither here, nor there. He is not denying that this woman is her mother, he is telling her that her mother is gone, and that would be simple for a simple, binary option. For most, the woman who gives birth to a child and raises the child is the mother, and the answer is binary. But if someone has more than one mother, it is not a binary question. One mother may be gone, and the other may have been one that was there. He is clearer the next time he addresses the issue:
RED: ...your desire for the woman in Paris to be your mother blinded you to the fact that she wasn't. LIZ: It wasn't just my desire. RED: So she told you she was Katarina? LIZ: She did. And it's difficult for me to believe she wasn't. RED: I was convinced my casket was authentic. It was nearly impossible for me to believe it wasn't. But it was a fake. And she was, too.
and we should ALWAYS remember the initial subterfuge when it comes to who Liz's mother started the very first time her name is mentioned.
RED: Mmmh I knew her as Katarina Rostova. One of her many names. She was a KGB agent.
this HAS to mean something, because Red knows Katarina's name, her real last name, because he knows who Dom is, he knows her cover husband, the one nobody talked about, as if he did not exist. But Red does not seem to know Fakerina's real name. And how does Fakerina refers to Dom's daughter?
On the day you learnedKatarina Rostovawas still alive.
At least Fakerina believes that Ilya knows Katarina, Dom's daughter, as "Katarina Rostova." Fakerina believes Ilya's real name is Ilya Koslov, and she seems to believe Red is Raymond Reddington. Edited to correct typo
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