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What the whales are doing with STA, spoiler alert, it's pretty damn bullish
So I've seen the rise, fall, and now stabilization of STA and decided to do some research. But why do I want to do research on a shitcoin? Because my hope is, it's not a shitcoin. What you are doing with statera is buying a "stake" in SNX, Link, BTC, ETH, and STA through an index fund (balancer pool), if BTC moons then the index fund buys more SNX, Link, ETH, BTC, and STA, if STA moons the pool buys more SNX, Link, BTC, and ETH. If Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all go up then the pool buys more STA forcing STA's price to go up. It's basically a way to gain exposure to all 5 assets simultaneously while balancing your risk. The interesting part is that STA is deflationary, it destroys itself with each transaction (we've already seen supply dwindle by 7 million STA), this reduces supply, increasing demand, increasing price. It's basically a leveraged index fund on BTC, ETH, Link, and SNX all projects I invest directly in and support. If we have a bull cycle STA will moon. (Disclaimer, there is no free lunch, if there is an error in the code or a back door, or if something goes awry with the balancer, this could go down in flames, they are currently auditing the code with a third party which will give us more assurance. It is also decentralized so there is less counter-party risk, as long as that decentralization holds, which the audit will help us understand. Other than a black swan catastrophic failure, this is an incredible investment on paper, if you think the other 4 assets will go up, because them going up forces the buying of STA by the balancer pool, which is basically an altruistic whale that wants STA to be less volatile while trending up in price). There is a term in investing called accumulation phase, for us in crypto when someone like Grayscale buys 150% of all bitcoins being mined, or buys tens of millions in crypto every week, do you think they just put a market order into Coinbase Pro? No. They could do an Over The Counter (OTC) trade with an individual, they agree on a price, and a large purchase is made individual to individual (but I doubt they continue to find a bunch of bitcoin whales to give them the thousands of bitcoins they want). So what do you do? If you buy thousands of bitcoin the price will unnaturally go up as people spot your demand and inflate the order books to take your money then the price crashes once you, the biggest buyer, is out of the market, leaving you with a heavy bag. So you enter an accumulation phase, a simplified example: Your target to buy a stock is $5-$10, you are happy buying at any price in that range. The price is at $8, so you put in a few orders and a few more 10 shares at a time so no one sees you as a whale, the prices starts going up, you have now purchased 1,000 shares and the price is $9.99, so you sell 800 shares all in one big order, everyone freaks out seeing this "huge" (huge in our example) order from presumably a whale who is spooked by market sentiment, price crashes to $6. You start buying again $20 at a time, and build your stack back up to 1,500 shares, the price has hit $8.99 and just to throw the market off (doing it again at $9.99 would be too obvious) you sell 1,000 shares. Rinse repeat. You have now bought 500 shares at the price you want where as, if you had bought 500 shares all at once, the price would have sky rocketed to $20 and then fell back to earth (say back down to $10) and you'd be holding shares at a 100% premium. This is highly simplified but hopefully gives you an idea of how accumulation works and maybe even makes you wonder if bitcoin is not going through this exact thing as we speak. But on to Statera, so I decided to look at the whales in this space, you can check my work,go to the contract addressthen click on "holders" the list is constantly changing, addresses 10 and 11 leapfrogged address 9 and are now 9 and 10 respectively. I put the first four digits of the address so you can specifically check my work. I would say what I found is highly bullish (but make your own conjectures). First off the spread of addresses is HEALTHY, the biggest whales (top 50 address) all hold .5-2% of the supply each. The biggest holder (the developer) holds 4.6% of supply (the best I can tell you can mask your holdings and shuffle them all over so it's nearly impossible to really tell). Also there are only 1,700 people in the coin, we are still VERY early, this is more than a 50% increase in a week. Lastly the balancer pool (which balances the index) has over $350,000 in it up over 50% in the last week, this is arguably the most important metric, the liquidity here is what allows the balancing to happen and the STA price to be forced to go up, this is a huge amount of liquidity for something only held by 1,700 people, it's actually quadruple the liquidity of the trading pairs on Uniswap! Long story short the balancer pool is armed and ready to balance and support STA. So there is no one holding 90% of supply (that we can tell) who is waiting to dump on you, we're in the early stages and seeing a lot of health in the token, and there is a lot of liquidity here. Now, the top 13 addresses: 1 (0x43) Dev Account started with all 101,000,000 then started pushing out to exchanges and balancer pool, sent 50 million right off the bat to 0x0e (balancer pool or uniswap) fun account to look at you kind of get to see the genesis of the coin. 2 (0x28) "Bought" a ton to start, hodler (weirdly sold a VERY small amount, around 10,000 of his over two million). I put bought in quotes because this account got it's STA from 0x6a, which is also where account 11 got it's from, 0x6a seems like an exchange account that people are buying from, but I would love for someone to confirm what 06xa is, balancer pool related, exchange related, developer related?) 3 (0x92) Hodler straight up, not a move, though the dump on this account came from another account that is now zero, could be a similar situation to address 6 where it is a "cold storage" for someone trading with other accounts 4 (0x13) PLAYING the exact game I showed above sell buy sell buy repeat (buys are bigger than sells) 5 (0xC2) Bought big, trickle sold, bought big, currently trickle selling (possibly PLAYING the game) 6 (0xD7) interesting one, bought 1.9 million STA for 1,354 digital Rand (What a deal!) then transferred all their STA from one account (0x67 currently no STA) to this account, now semi holding, small sells, sold 40,000 in all of 1.7 million. Not sure why he transferred could be intentional to mask moves, could be moving to hardware wallet, could be moving to exchange, unknown. Seems like a HODLER. 7 (0x7c) PLAYING THE EXACT GAME... 8 (0x0e) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 9 (0x59) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 10 (0xd8) PLAYING THE GAME 11 (0xb0) got a large dump from 0xc69 and is now holding (which now has 0) and if you keep tracing it back and back you get to the first account in the chain (0x6a, which also funded 0x28, which now has 615,000, and is either interacting with the balancer or trading, again please someone explain I can't), this could be a whale splitting his buckets or two large individuals who did an OTC trade, but more likely it's one person who is doing a lot of trading and accumulating. I would put PLAYING THE GAME, as the other accounts it came from are accumulating, but not completely clear. It seems like she may be using this as a "cold address" to hodl and then trading with her other account 12 (0x18db) Hodl. Accumulated hard from Uniswap buy buy buy 15, 12, and 6 days ago, hasn't moved since. 13 (0x6c) PLAYING THE GAME So are we in a whale accumulation phase? Hard to tell, the top 10 addresses (minus 3 for the two contracts and dev) are definitely acting bullish even if they are not accumulating, it seems like 6 of the 10 are in some form of an accumulation phase and the other 4 are hodling. I do see STA as a long term hold, again it's an index fund on four of the biggest names in crypto. This will be a popular investment (if it remains legit, so far it has been highly legit). That being said, this is just 10 addresses, I don't want to spend my whole Saturday on this, if anyone wants to look at the top 50 addresses, please do! I will read and upvote your post. It was reassuring to me at least to see the top addresses are acting like bullish investors. Is the whole STA trader base in accumulation or is this an anomaly? I don't know, you can be the judge or dig deeper yourself. The best part of this sideways action and the buying and selling of STA in the 4-6 cent range is that every trade burns coin, deflating supply, and making any later bull run even bigger. That's the genius of the coin, with every trade, with everyday, it inherently becomes more valuable (unless Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all shit the bed, then game over, but that would be game over no matter what game you're playing). DYOR, don't put in more than you are willing to lose, but as for me, I'm going to be following what the whales are doing and slowly accumulating in this band (4-6 cents seems like a strong buy point, 2-3 cents is an amazing buy point but it rarely dips down that low).
So I've seen the rise, fall, and now stabilization of STA and decided to do some research. But why do I want to do research on a shitcoin? Because my hope is, it's not a shitcoin. What you are doing with statera is buying a "stake" in SNX, Link, BTC, ETH, and STA through an index fund (balancer pool), if BTC moons then the index fund buys more SNX, Link, ETH, BTC, and STA, if STA moons the pool buys more SNX, Link, BTC, and ETH. If Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all go up then the pool buys more STA forcing STA's price to go up. It's basically a way to gain exposure to all 5 assets simultaneously while balancing your risk. The interesting part is that STA is deflationary, it destroys itself with each transaction (we've already seen supply dwindle by 7 million STA), this reduces supply, increasing demand, increasing price. It's basically a leveraged index fund on BTC, ETH, Link, and SNX all projects I invest directly in and support. If we have a bull cycle STA will moon. (Disclaimer, there is no free lunch, if there is an error in the code or a back door, or if something goes awry with the balancer, this could go down in flames, they are currently auditing the code with a third party which will give us more assurance. It is also decentralized so there is less counter-party risk, as long as that decentralization holds, which the audit will help us understand. Other than a black swan catastrophic failure, this is an incredible investment on paper, if you think the other 4 assets will go up, because them going up forces the buying of STA by the balancer pool, which is basically an altruistic whale that wants STA to be less volatile while trending up in price). There is a term in investing called accumulation phase, for us in crypto when someone like Grayscale buys 150% of all bitcoins being mined, or buys tens of millions in crypto every week, do you think they just put a market order into Coinbase Pro? No. They could do an Over The Counter (OTC) trade with an individual, they agree on a price, and a large purchase is made individual to individual (but I doubt they continue to find a bunch of bitcoin whales to give them the thousands of bitcoins they want). So what do you do? If you buy thousands of bitcoin the price will unnaturally go up as people spot your demand and inflate the order books to take your money then the price crashes once you, the biggest buyer, is out of the market, leaving you with a heavy bag. So you enter an accumulation phase, a simplified example: Your target to buy a stock is $5-$10, you are happy buying at any price in that range. The price is at $8, so you put in a few orders and a few more 10 shares at a time so no one sees you as a whale, the prices starts going up, you have now purchased 1,000 shares and the price is $9.99, so you sell 800 shares all in one big order, everyone freaks out seeing this "huge" (huge in our example) order from presumably a whale who is spooked by market sentiment, price crashes to $6. You start buying again $20 at a time, and build your stack back up to 1,500 shares, the price has hit $8.99 and just to throw the market off (doing it again at $9.99 would be too obvious) you sell 1,000 shares. Rinse repeat. You have now bought 500 shares at the price you want where as, if you had bought 500 shares all at once, the price would have sky rocketed to $20 and then fell back to earth (say back down to $10) and you'd be holding shares at a 100% premium. This is highly simplified but hopefully gives you an idea of how accumulation works and maybe even makes you wonder if bitcoin is not going through this exact thing as we speak. But on to Statera, so I decided to look at the whales in this space, you can check my work, go to the contract address then click on "holders" the list is constantly changing, addresses 10 and 11 leapfrogged address 9 and are now 9 and 10 respectively. I put the first four digits of the address so you can specifically check my work. I would say what I found is highly bullish (but make your own conjectures). First off the spread of addresses is HEALTHY, the biggest whales (top 50 address) all hold .5-2% of the supply each. The biggest holder (the developer) holds 4.6% of supply (the best I can tell you can mask your holdings and shuffle them all over so it's nearly impossible to really tell). So there is no one holding 90% of supply (that we can tell) who is waiting to dump on you. Top 13 addresses: 1 (0x43) Dev Account started with all 101,000,000 then started pushing out to exchanges and balancer pool, sent 50 million right off the bat to 0x0e (balancer pool or uniswap) fun account to look at you kind of get to see the genesis of the coin. 2 (0x28) "Bought" a ton to start, hodler (weirdly sold a VERY small amount, around 10,000 of his over two million). I put bought in quotes because this account got it's STA from 0x6a, which is also where account 11 got it's from, 0x6a seems like an exchange account that people are buying from, but I would love for someone to confirm what 06xa is, balancer pool related, exchange related, developer related?) 3 (0x92) Hodler straight up, not a move 4 (0x13) PLAYING the exact game I showed above sell buy sell buy repeat (buys are bigger than sells) 5 (0xC2) Bought big, trickle sold, bought big, currently trickle selling (possibly PLAYING the game) 6 (0xD7) interesting one, bought 1.9 million STA for 1,354 digital Rand (What a deal!) then transferred all their STA from one account (0x67 currently no STA) to this account, now semi holding, small sells, sold 40,000 in all of 1.7 million. Not sure why he transferred could be intentional to mask moves, could be moving to hardware wallet, could be moving to exchange, unknown. Seems like a HODLER. 7 (0x7c) PLAYING THE EXAT GAME... 8 (0x0e) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 9 (0x59) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 10 (0xd8) PLAYING THE GAME 11 (0xb0) got a large dump from 0xc69 and is now holding (which now has 0) and if you keep tracing it back and back you get to the first account in the chain (0x6a, which also funded 0x28, which now has 615,000, and is either interacting with the balancer or trading, again please someone explain I can't), this could be a whale splitting his buckets or two large individuals who did an OTC trade, but more likely it's one person who is doing a lot of trading and accumulating. I would put PLAYING THE GAME, as the other accounts it came from are accumulating, but not completely clear. It seems like she may be using this as a "cold address" to hodl and then trading with her other account 12 (0x18db) Hodl. Accumulated hard from Uniswap buy buy buy 15, 12, and 6 days ago, hasn't moved since. 13 (0x6c) PLAYING THE GAME So are we in a whale accumulation phase? Hard to tell, the top 10 addresses (minus 3 for the two contracts and dev) are definitely acting bullish even if they are not accumulating, it seems like 6 of the 10 are in some form of an accumulation phase and the other 4 are hodling. I do see STA as a long term hold, again it's an index fund on four of the biggest names in crypto. This will be a popular investment (if it remains legit, so far it has been highly legit). That being said, this is just 10 addresses, I don't want to spend my whole Saturday on this, if anyone wants to look at the top 50 addresses, please do! I will read and upvote your post. It was reassuring to me at least to see the top addresses are acting like bullish investors. Is the whole STA trader base in accumulation or is this an anomaly? I don't know, you can be the judge or dig deeper yourself. The best part of this sideways action and the buying and selling of STA in the 4-6 cent range is that every trade burns coin, deflating supply, and making any later bull run even bigger. That's the genius of the coin, with every trade, with everyday, it inherently becomes more valuable (unless Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all shit the bed, then game over, but that would be game over no matter what game you're playing). DYOR, don't put in more than you are willing to lose, but as for me, I'm going to be following what the whales are doing and slowly accumulating in this band (4-6 cents seems like a strong buy point, 2-3 cents is an amazing buy point but it rarely dips down that low).
A field-programmable gate array (FPGA) is a chip that can be programmed to suit whatever purpose you want, as often as you want it and wherever you need it. FPGAs provide multiple advantages, including low latency, high throughput and energy efficiency. To fully understand what FPGAs offer, imagine a performance spectrum. At one end, you have the central processing unit (CPU), which offers a generic set of instructions that can be combined to carry out an array of different tasks. This makes a CPU extremely flexible, and its behaviour can be defined through software. However, CPUs are also slow because they have to select from the available generic instructions to complete each task. In a sense, they’re a “jack of all trades, but a master of none”. At the other end of the spectrum sit application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). These are potentially much faster because they have been built with a single task in mind, making them a “master of one trade”. This is the kind of chip people use to mine bitcoin, for example. The downside of ASICs is that they can’t be changed, and they cost time and money to develop. FPGAs offer a perfect middle ground: they can be significantly faster than a CPU and are more flexible than ASICs. FPGAs contain thousands, sometimes even millions, of so-called core logic blocks (CLBs). These blocks can be configured and combined to process any task that can be solved by a CPU. Compared with a CPU, FPGAs aren’t burdened by surplus hardware that would otherwise slow you down. They can therefore be used to carry out specific tasks quickly and effectively, and can even process several tasks simultaneously. These characteristics make them popular across a wide range of sectors, from aerospace to medical engineering and security systems, and of course finance. How are FPGAs used in the financial services sector? Speed and versatility are particularly important when buying or selling stocks and other securities. In the era of electronic trading, decisions are made in the blink of an eye. As prices change and orders come and go, companies are fed new information from exchanges and other sources via high-speed networks. This information arrives at high speeds, with time measured in nanoseconds. The sheer volume and speed of data demands a high bandwidth to process it all. Specialized trading algorithms make use of the new information in order to make trades. FPGAs provide the perfect platform to develop these applications, as they allow you to bypass non-essential software as well as generic-purpose hardware. How do market makers use FPGAs to provide liquidity? As a market maker, IMC provides liquidity to buyers and sellers of financial instruments. This requires us to price every instrument we trade and to react to the market accordingly. Valuation is a view on what the price of an asset should be, which is handled by our traders and our automated pricing algorithms. When a counterpart wants to buy or sell an asset on a trading venue, our role is to always be there and offer, or bid, a fair price for the asset. FPGAs enable us to perform this key function in the most efficient way possible. At IMC, we keep a close eye on emerging technologies that can potentially improve our business. We began working with FPGAs more than a decade ago and are constantly exploring ways to develop this evolving technology. We work in a competitive industry, so our engineers have to be on their toes to make sure we’re continuously improving. What does an FPGA engineer do? Being an FPGA engineer is all about learning and identifying new solutions to challenges as they arise. A software developer can write code in a software language and know within seconds whether it works, and so deploy it quickly. However, the code will have to go through several abstraction layers and generic hardware components. Although you can deploy the code quickly, you do not get the fastest possible outcome. As an FPGA engineer, it may take two to three hours of compilation time before you know whether your adjustment will result in the outcome you want. However, you can increase performance at the cost of more engineering time. The day-to-day challenge you face is how to make the process as efficient as possible with the given trade-offs while pushing the boundaries of the FPGA technology. Skills needed to be an FPGA engineer Things change extremely rapidly in the trading world, and agility is the name of the game. Unsurprisingly, FPGA engineers tend to enjoy a challenge. To work as an FGPA engineer at a company like IMC, you have to be a great problem-solver, a quick learner and highly adaptable. What makes IMC a great fit for an FPGA engineer? IMC offers a great team dynamic. We are a smaller company than many larger technology or finance houses, and we operate very much like a family unit. This means that, as a graduate engineer, you’ll never be far from the action, and you’ll be able to make an impact from day one. Another key difference is that you’ll get to see the final outcome of your work. If you come up with an idea, we’ll give you the chance to make it work. If it does, you’ll see the results put into practice in a matter of days, which is always a great feeling. If it doesn’t, you’ll get to find out why – so there’s an opportunity to learn and improve for next time. Ultimately, working at IMC is about having skin in the game. You’ll be entrusted with making your own decisions. And you’ll be working side by side with super smart people who are open-minded and always interested in hearing your ideas. Market making is a technology-dependent process, and we’re all in this together. Think you have what it takes to make a difference at a technology graduate at IMC?Check out our graduate opportunities page.
Decred is insanely undervalued - A Confluence of Blockchain mechanics and Raw Scarcity
Decred has caught a burst of long overdue wind today. Below is my thesis on recent price action drivers and why I think Decred is insanely undervalued right now from an on-chain/blockchain mechanics perspective. This is an expansion on a tweet I put out here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1190349477120552961 Fundamentally, the project is one of the most undervalued assets in the market and I believe the largest information asymmetry next to Bitcoin. The smart money know this. They have been accumulating. Looking at the volume of DCR moving on-chain, we can see a significant amount of DCR moving in 2019 at the current support range. We know that DCR is always on the move due to tickets so when we see high volume nodes like this, it supports the notion of actual accumulation in addition to the usual transaction flow. We have seen similar growth in the median and mean transaction sizes throughout 2019. Larger wallets, larger DCR purchases. Update: Note how the 2019 volume node, if just looking at USD chart could be attributed to Dec-Apr period or the recent drawdown. However looking against the BTC chart confirms that the dominant accumulation has occurred during the recent period as the BTC price probes the lows. This is what I consider a high volume zone of support characterised by a large transfer of coins (miners selling, accumulating buyers). On-chain DCR volume profile plotted against price for BTC (black) and USD (blue) The recent price action drawdown in my opinion is a result of Miners going too hard to fast. ASICs were introduced in early 2018 and we see an explosion in PoW Difficulty. Mining is a leveraged play for DCR and in this case is unlike what occurred for BTC in that it was almost four years until ASICs were on the scene for Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoins naturally high early inflation had time to disperse before ASICs and serious hardware investment came online. ASICs are capital intensive, not hobbyist grade meaning coins mined must necessarily become coins sold. We can compare the insane growth in Decred mining since Jan 2018 against the market to see this on a relative scale. Mind you, this is a bullish signal. Miners are committing heavy capital to the Decred chain security. They have done their due diligence and have high conviction. That is not something to ignore. Full tweet on this here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1177650799050133504 Normalised difficulty growth (left) since Jan 2018 and (right) 2019 Year to Date As miners over-extend without support of price appreciation, they must sell more coins to pay bills. Eventually the weak miners have to capitulate and difficulty ribbon squeezes as mining equipment is switched off. We have seen this play out for Bitcoin where squeezing of the difficulty ribbon indicates a valuable period for accumulation. Willy Woo talks about this here https://woobull.com/introducing-the-difficulty-ribbon-the-best-times-to-buy-bitcoin/. What happens next is that the strong miners gain an increasing share of the hashrate. Their energy is thus rewarded with more DCR and so they can sell less of their income and Hodl more. This effectively begins to constrain supply rather than the oversaturation during capitulation. Over time this leads to a reversal in price action which further perpetuates the effect. Price of a scarce asset must appreciate with reduced circulating supply assuming demand relatively remains stable or increases. Decred total cumulative block subsidy paid (price x block reward DCR) and Difficulty ribbon This is actually very healthy forDecred. Coins are being distributed by miners en-mass right now, nullifying the risk of miners holding too high of a supply within the staking system leading to centralisation. I would argue that this distribution of coins is one of the most important and bullish signals long term. We know that miners stake as well and thus they are able to generate income on Hodled coins. I expect this to actually soften the degree of miner capitulation as they can turn off power whilst still generating income. For this reason, I do not suspect we will see photos of mountains of Decred ASICs being thrown out as we saw for Bitcoin in 2018. The machines are simply put on hold until price reverses to justify power consumption. This is a valuable business feasibility case for miners and a feature of long term sustainability in the chain security. Decred Resilience This is where the elegance of Decred resilience steps in. As miners slow, supply saturates, price drops. DCR Tickets become cheaper. Stakeholders step in and accumulation begins. The Ticket Price hit an ATH of 140+ DCR as Stakeholders begin accumulating and commit capital to secure the chain. The Hybrid PoW/PoS system works as a counter balance. When price is in a strong uptrend, stakeholders are provided an exit to capitalise on gains as miners have a strong case for expanding their operations (PoW dominant security). During price drawdowns, miners drop out and the cheap DCR stimulates Hodlers buying and locking capital which locks down available supply from attackers. An attack would thus drive price higher and the cycle repeats. As above, showing the total DCR locked in tickets hits an ATH as price drops due to miner capitulation PermabullNino made the observation that Decred functions as an elegant yet robust accounting system. His discussion on block subsidies are shown in the charts above and linked here https://medium.com/@permabullnino/decred-on-chain-a-look-at-block-subsidies-6f5180932c9b.Decred has a has past, present and future cash flows distributed to those who support it most. This puts Decred security in good hands- Miners 60%- Stakeholders 30%- Builders 10% Price is currently hovering around the PoW total subsidy paid (red line) and means miners are indeed feeling the squeeze as this is the cost basis of all DCR paid to date. Once you factor in overheads and capital costs, it makes sense we are seeing DCR supply distribution. The last time we saw price dip to this line was early in Decreds history and was followed by a rapid repricing. We now have three mechanisms at play which will act to constrain supply
Miners are distributing heavily but eventually will switch to hodling as the strong miners hash share grows.
Stakeholder are absorbing supply en mass and locking in tickets due to relatively cheap prices
Inflation rate is in a state of constant reduction
Scarcity My recent work looking at the Decred stock-to-flow model (which does exist and is convincing, contrary to what the Bitcoin maxi community may want to believe), suggests that DCR is in the oversold range. It has deviated by 1.5 standard deviations from the S2F model mean which is near identical to Bitcoin at 50% supply mined. Historically for Bitcoin and Decred, this has been an opportune period for accumulation. More on this discussion in my tweet here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1184159137564889089 Note that Decred, likely due to the smooth issuance and difference in market awareness, is less volatile than Bitcoin. The significant undervaluation of Bitcoin at 50% mined was due to the first 2012 halving where it was a very different and far smaller market. I would expect DCR to be repriced sooner rather than later as the smart money steps in having now developed Bitcoin hindsight. Standard deviations of DCR and BTC price from the respective stock-to-flow linear regression models As a final note, if we look at Decred and Bitcoin market valuations plotted against ratio of 21M coins issued, which normalises for coin age, we see a fascinating similarity in these coins trajectory. Bitcoin was worth $127M at 50% coins mined and Decred was worth $180M. Considering we are in a log scale market, this is practically the same. Decred has achieved this value both benefiting from market awareness and size, but also in the face of heavy (albeit generally ill-equipped) alt-coin competition, quite remarkable. Decred and Bitcoin Market and Realised Caps and S2F models plotted against ratio of 21M coins mined Given that Decred has such insanely strong fundamentals, has developed a convincing monetary premium in it's short life and traverses the same stock-to-flow path as Bitcoin, I believe there is immense value flying under the markets radar. The recent price action drawdown can reasonably be attributed to miners over-extending. However based on both prior Decred behaviour and drawing comparisons to Bitcoin history, there is a strong argument to be made that supply will soon be constrained on multiple fronts and the current value is both highly undervalued and being absorbed by the smart money. Feedback, counter-points and discussions welcome. Cheers, CM.
2Ether dynamic block rewards: adjustment based on the market price
In our previous post, we described how the base block reward in 2Ether changes gradually with time to control inflation. In this article, we’ll see how miners’ rewards are adjusted depending on the market price. In a perfect world, price should clearly follow supply and demand. For example, if you reduce the block reward, fewer new coins will enter the market every day, while the demand will remain the same. So the price will go up. There won’t be as many buyers willing to pay the new higher price, and a new equilibrium will be reached. This is what happens every time Bitcoin goes through a halving. The number of BTC produced every day is cut in half, and the price invariably rises. Everyone expects the same thing to take place in May 2020, after the new halving. However, the pricing mechanism in the crypto market — especially for altcoins — isn’t so efficient. We all know that huge fluctuations can happen suddenly. And besides, altcoins tend to react strongly to what happens to Bitcoin. On the one hand, when something bad suddenly happens in the BTC market, it can be great for ETH and other tokens. For example, when the SEC ruled against Bitcoin ETFs, BTC lost almost 30%, but ETH grew by 200%. On the other hand, most cryptocurrencies show a significant correlation with BTC. For Ethereum it surpassed 0.90 in some periods. We can expect ET2 to be correlated with Bitcoin to a certain extent, too. So for example, if a crypto whale suddenly places a huge sell order on Bitcoin and pushes the price down by $1000, all other coins — including 2Ether — can experience a price decrease. In such a situation, miners will lose some of their income. They will sell the ET2 they mine but get a smaller amount of fiat money in return. At the same time, they will still have to pay for energy, hardware, and rental spaces in fiat. So their fiat revenue will go down, but their fiat costs will stay the same. If their profit becomes negative as a result, they might leave the market. In 2Ether, we use an intelligent and efficient solution to this problem. The base price will be adjusted regularly depending on how the market price of ET2 changes. We use the following formula: Price-adjusted Reward = Base reward\(last price/current price)* Every 30 blocks, our system will fetch the up-to-date ET2 price from Coinmarketcap. Since our average block time is 1 minute, this will happen roughly once in every half an hour. For example, if the price was $1 and then fell by 1% to $0.99, the base reward will be increased by 1%. This way, the mining revenue will remain stable even when the price fluctuates. The miners will have a clear strategy: - Sell their mined ET2 when the price is high to maximize revenue; - Save their rewards when the price is low and then sell them when the price increases — they gain an additional profit. We believe that this system is much more fair towards small miners, who cannot benefit from economy of scale. One of the main goals of 2Ether is to create a framework where GPU miners have a level playing field with big farms. The price adjustment of the base reward will help us achieve exactly that. https://2ether.com/ Web site — https://2ether.com/ Twitter — https://twitter.com/2Ether_ Discord — https://discord.gg/TuqG4py Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/2Ethe Reddit — https://www.reddit.com/use2Ether Medium — https://medium.com/@2ether Teletype — https://teletype.in/@2ether Telegram — https://t.me/ether2support Telegram chat — https://t.me/blockchain_2ether
Part 8 (has access to parts 1-7 in it) For some reason it would not post the last day or so. It is early 2017. I have been carrying on my usual playing 10-20 hours a week to survive. Still lethargic is best term I suppose. I just dont get excited to play anymore. I consider getting a job to remind me how shitty working is so it gives me a kick in the teeth to play poker. Then it dawns on me, I hate playing poker now. Poker has been tainted. Everything bad that happened to me I can associate with poker. The rise and fall was poker (the fall part). The oxycontin started as a performance enhancer to log more hours. Everything I consider to be wrong in my life I trace back to poker essentially, even if just a butterfly affect reason that had I done something else I wouldnt be here. Hating poker is not the greatest realization considering its my only means to income outside of grunt labor. I seek a job in a couple places to no avail which was fine, I didnt wanna do that either. Several months earlier I had started playing on SWC (bitcoin site) and became familiarized with bitcoin. Thought nothing of it, it was just the currency I was winning or losing. I dont read a thing about it, I learn nothing of it. I wasnt playing a ton or even big stakes, my intention for playing online was to just stay sharp in case it ever comes back full fledge. I have 5-6 btc on this site at the most (2-3k) and I flush it playing plo and big o not thinking much of it. Back to 2017. Its March/April~ of 2017. I am playing cards one night dicking around probably had a couple drinks and was needling the usuals etc. A guy I do not know is in the game. Looks Russian. I bet he interfered in our election... fucking commies. I dont remember how I got to talking to him but crypto had been brought up. I talk about SWC. Tell him I had a few btc but not anymore. The only other thing I remember well from the conversation was bitching about going from an iphone4 (yes I had an iphone4 from 2010-17, the same one. It barely worked. Many oxycontins snorted off the back of that phone, texts dating back to when I got it in 2010) to the 6 or 7 or wtfever I have now, which is bigger and its harder to text and drive. He just responds by saying “first world problems are the worst”. Amen brother, those Africans and Venezuelans have no clue of our struggle. I end up talking to him a bit and it turns out he mines crypto. Has a website that sells mining equipment. He has a hell of a back story too. I tell him I am interested in mining. I have about 20k to my name at this time and I realized recently that I dont like playing poker so why not? He eventually tells me not to do it. Regardless we become friends and he is ultimately the most important friend I have ever made. I have made more positive strides mentally since meeting him (mostly work ethic, realizations, reality checks and aspirations) As silly as it sounds, when he told me “first world problems are the worst” it stuck with me. He was saying it as a joke but jokes are funniest when true. He is genuinely the smartest guy I have ever associated with also. If you run into him at a poker table youd think he was a high functioning autist. Then you talk to him and go “ohhh hes just one of those Einstein type geniuses”. His hair is usually a mess, he cuts his own hair for or has his girlfriend do it. He wears cheap clothing usually since it all covers your ass or nipples I suppose. He virtually never instigates conversation with people he doesnt know. He is really deliberate with his actions. Talks really calmly and knows exactly what he is saying. He is just on the same level at all times it seems. Meeting him has definitely changed my life for the better. We become friends pretty quickly. I know I went on a downer after meeting him because I couldnt afford to buy mining stuff and remember wanting to (again, he told me not to do it eventually anyways). Which will lead me to another good friend to have. Between 2015 and this point in 2017 I have shot myself in the foot not logging hours a couple times. A friend has bailed me out with a loan or short term stake a few times. He is a well off restaurant owner who loves poker more than just about anything not related to him. Every time I see him we talk about hands he played and he just eats it up, has photographic memory and never butchers a hand history which is nice. He is as good hearted of a guy as I have ever met. (Sorry if this is getting long winded giving praise to people close to me, I intend on sharing with a few people and would like them to know what they mean to me as corny as that is because I suck at doing it in real life. Plus it is kinda gay to get mushy sounding in real life, but I digress. Theyve heard virtually none of the content of this whole thread either, a ton of this stuff I have never shared) In fact he is too kind hearted. He has helped people who wouldnt piss on him if he was on fire, and people have burned him on many occasions. My only complaint about this person is he never kicked my ass and told me to log more hours or fuck off. I needed it. If I just logged hours I wouldnt need the help. Its as simple as that. I have no leaks other than the unwillingness to play (leaks as in drugs/pit games/strippers/wtf ever else) and it has hindered me immensely over the these last couple years. (Ok I do have one embarrassing leak that has been fixed for a year and change, mobile games... I have spent like 30,000$ on mobile games between late 2016 and late 2018, Lords Mobile specifically clocked me for 20k. This definitely hindered my ability to build a roll and got me into a few jams. When youre not logging hours playing youre sitting around gaming and these games arent cheap obviously) It is around May now and my friend who messes with crypto tells me that Bitcoin is going to 10,000$. Its like 800$ at the time iirc. I own a couple from Ignition cashouts. I kind of trust him. I cant argue him on it as I have literally no mental fortitude on the subject, but I essentially shrug it off. I start watching the price on poloniex and am watching prices jump like crazy. Light bulb in head! I can buy the dips sell the peaks and have more BTC! Lets load the 2.5btc I have onto poloniex! Sell peak but it keeps climbing... “FUCK! gotta get it back before it goes to 10k! Whew. Still have 2.45 BTC. FUCK! Its dropping! Get it out before it goes to zero!” Yea I turned that 2.5 BTC into .4 BTC. No joke. I think I ended up throwing it onto SWC and losing it once it was almost gone. I honestly forget. I had nothing when it finally hit 20k other than some shit alts worth about 800$ at most (worth 35$ now but they still reside in my locked poloniex account, maybe I will give poloniex my ID if they ever become worth more than 1k) So I am now annoyed I didnt turn every free dollar I had into BTC. I didnt trust the guy enough and to be fair I would have been using the money I play with. Had I met the guy a year earlier (know what I know of him now) I would probably have just locked it all up and sat around waiting. I never really get my act together in 2017. I continuously log just enough hours to get by. I just dont care. I just want a way out of this. I catch myself saying “I hate playing poker” and sometime around the end of 17 or early 2018 I start trying to censor myself and quit saying that. Saying it will only make it fester deeper. I have to retrain myself to love poker. I remember the days of playing 18-24 hours straight because I love playing. I love watching for everything I can find to get an edge. I love a situation to present itself where I can step out of line. But now I just sit down and count the minutes before I can tell myself “way to go! You put in an 8 hour shift lets pack it in!” I leave good games often times. I celebrate when games break. This is where I am mentally while I play. I cant break out of it. Late in 2017 a close friend of mine passes away. Will call him J. He was the guy who gave me a place to stay after the shutdown in Joplin. I was still doing oxy and he never once touched the stuff knowing what has happened to me. He doesnt judge me, he is somewhat of an enabler I suppose. He just drinks does shitty coke sometimes and has a script of adderol and xanax. Literally never once does he do any with me (ive warned him xanax and opiates will kill you if you mix, which is likely part of the reason he never did it) He was a marginal poker player (relative to modern game, he was just good enough to beat the rake live but he had too many pit leaks) and took great pride in being my friend (I was the slayer in the area for years leading up to this, anyone considered the best in their area can relate, you just have the respect of the local poker community). One of my earlier live poker memories involved him. I am like 18 or 19 playing a 1-2 game at a small casino and he was there with a friend. They were the good players in the game at the time. They were having a few drinks eating nice food and laughing having a good time. I remember thinking that I want this lifestyle. Care free gambling fast paced lifestyle. I had told him this story years later and he just ate it up, constantly tried to get me to rebound, but as I have stated many many times in the last few of these I have basically waved my white flag and accepted the result of my fall. Anyhow after living with him we always talk every few months at minimal and have something to eat when we see each other at the casino. He was somewhat disingenuous sounding he was so nice and honestly it got to a point it started rubbing me the wrong way. I still talk to him of course but less frequently. In December of 2017 I get a phone call from my friend who owns the restaurant and he is distraught. He has been at the hospital and J has passed away. The back story on this is he had gotten a phone call from old friend who was getting out of prison in Arizona with no where to go (a female). J being as nice a guy as he is drives the 20+ hours to get her and gives her a place to stay. Well shes a junky and actually convinces J to do opiates/heroin. He overdoses and dies. I hadnt talked to him in a few months. I regret it. Had I known I would have beaten him senseless and got him to quit before things actually get bad. Going to his funeral hit me up side the head too. The way I started feeling he was disingenuous just got destroyed. I cant fathom as many people showing up to my funeral with as nice of things to say. I wrote something to say but opt out after a few people say everything I had written (except better). I regret not saying them anyways. I think I still have what I wrote tucked away with the card and his money clip that made its way to me. I stumbled across his casino players card in a box one day and it resides in my wallet ever since. This was the first close friend that has passed away in my life, knock on wood. It woke me up a bit and caused a lot of self reflection because I felt I had let him down. I lived a few miles from him and didnt drop in to see him, didnt stay in contact as well as I should have. All because I felt he was disingenuously nice when he was actually just nice, which is actually because I am a cynical hermit who hates social life these days. That was the real reason I didnt stay closer. Him being too nice was just my excuse to blow him off essentially. Only other thing I can add is that chick he helped out didnt even go to his funeral and on top of that had tried to take his truck and clean his house out. Junkies are the worst. I was a junky but I proudly say I never robbed anyone or cost anyone anything other than emotional distress, which isnt much of a brag obviously. 2018 starts and I have been decreasing my methadone every week for about 3-4 months now. I am on a low dose. Makes sleeping at night hard (get restless legs and sneezy). So I am having a few drinks any time I am at the casino playing (still just two days a week for the most part) to help get through those late night sessions when its worn off and I feel crummy. I get down to 15mg then 10mg and in March of 2018 I get asked if I wanna work for a week with my crypto friend. His friend is setting up a farm with 500 miners and needs help. I agree. The pay is in excess of the work (in my opinion) at 3k and I have no expenses, but I dont argue obviously. Before we leave town I have to pick up my week of methadone (at 4mg now) and so I do that. I never take any of them, I have the box still. Never opened it. They remain at my apartment as a reminder, the box carrying the 6 doses and a stack of receipts for every 75$ week that I kept in the box, several years worth, at least 9-10k worth of receipts, and that shits CHEAP compared to oxy. So I am finally off of opiates. I take kratom still but its essentially non addictive in comparison. Ill cede that I am reliant on kratom but if it disappeared tomorrow I wouldnt panic, I would be fine. So I fly to Denver with my friend and meet his friends half brother who was instructed to rent a box truck and the three of us were to drive from Denver to Washington carrying like half a million dollars worth of hardware. Its early March, the roads arent exactly great. Half brother of his friend rents a truck with no middle seat though. Its absolutely miserable. Whoever sat middle was sitting like a fem boy legs closed and knees up high from the drive shaft hump. It was un fucking real how uncomfortable the middle was. So like I stated the roads were not great, we drove on ice for 5-6 hours straight (while my crypto friend did about 30 minutes of it before I decided I value my life and banned him from driving, he was literally doing over 70 on this ice sheet when I checked the gauge. I forget what he said, I will fail to make it sound as good but he said that he is protected and can not die, if we wreck he wont get hurt because of some universe stipulation that protects him. He said we would get hurt but he wouldnt. *** Ok here is what he said. “quantum immortality. if i die in this universe, my conciousness will shift to others where i am still alive” He just couldnt assure us ours would. I end up driving like 18 of the 24 (one shot) hours it took as letting crypto friend drive was out. We make it set up a farm over a couple days then we go to Vegas. Not only do we go to Vegas but we fly a private jet. Not only do we take a private jet but his buddy has all four of us our own room at the Bellagio for 5-6 days. I remember having a 4500$ win at Bellagios 500$ cap 2-5 game... ran pretty salty. I only remember one hand worth bringing up, but I closed action and called 400$ pre with 67o with 3 others all in. Just flop 77X and send me the money. (Was drinking, gamble gamble). I cold called that also, some fish had opened massive and a 300$ stack just ripped a 400$ stack rejammed and I had called out of bb knowing fish will call off his 400~. This is actually a leak I have in poker. I will go over it because it has history. Dating back to online my biggest leak was playing vs short stacks. Everyones biggest leak obv (6m setting). There were a few min buyers on Carbon and I got to the point I put them in pre every time they opened my bb from button, so long as they opened 75%+ from button or close to it. This has carried with me live, if I can gamble 3-4 ways (4 specifically) I will basically do it any time its 100bb~ or less with about 40% of hands if I can close action safely. I am a bit of a degenerate in this sense. I will flip for 1k if I have 10k to my name. It mostly came as a way to loosen up tables (the flipping blind preflop) at my local casino with players who give action. I am pretty snug in general but I cant refuse a flip when it presents itself and I cant refuse a fun gamble with short stacks. I spend the month in Vegas during WSOP and run absurdly bad. Lose every big pot I play it seems. Switch to PLO the last half of the month and go a week straight without tripling my buy in up at any point. Just insane. Looking back I play rather poorly in PLO. I have been spoiled with my PLO games back home (which have been dead for about a year) and could get away with playing 50% of hands and no one ever bet big draws or anything not the nuts basically. I didnt adjust at all is what the issue was. Was just a frustrating month. So I return and take a stake from a friend. I barely play still. Same ole same ole. The last thing I will cover for this section is an incident late in 2018. One of the girls who is the floor at my local casino takes kratom also, we talk about it a fair amount. She has some 10mg percocets (mini oxycontins essentially) she gives me two of them. I havent had one in several years. I have been off methadone for 6-8 months at the time. I am eager to feel what I felt all those years ago, having no tolerance. So I take them home even though I know I shouldnt. I get home and take both of them. What transpires is almost depressing. It frustrates me to no end that I realized that I have no desire for these. It affirms that all the money I flushed wasnt about the high, it was about the not withdrawing. I basically stated this in an earlier post but this is the event that I learned this from. I dont even enjoy it. I just sink knowing that I gave my life away for these. I have never recovered thanks to pain killers. Never once after 2011 have I ever looked in the mirror and said “finally, I have finally recovered what I fucked off”. I am going to finish this thread off on the next post most likely. It will likely be long and take me a while to compose as it will cover my current year, and put a bow on it. The story basically climaxes a couple posts back, these surely have slowly lost their luster but I will finish them anyways. Nothing exciting about hearing about a guy who can beat games but wont sit in the chair to do it. Its a bit more upbeat in 2019 though andd I feel my future is bright and redemption nears though. I dont think I would have written these if not for a change of mentality recently, so look forward to a positive summary next post.
Transcript of discussion between an ASIC designer and several proof-of-work designers from #monero-pow channel on Freenode this morning
[08:07:01] lukminer contains precompiled cn/r math sequences for some blocks: https://lukminer.org/2019/03/09/oh-kay-v4r-here-we-come/ [08:07:11] try that with RandomX :P [08:09:00] tevador: are you ready for some RandomX feedback? it looks like the CNv4 is slowly stabilizing, hashrate comes down... [08:09:07] how does it even make sense to precompile it? [08:09:14] mine 1% faster for 2 minutes? [08:09:35] naturally we think the entire asic-resistance strategy is doomed to fail :) but that's a high-level thing, who knows. people may think it's great. [08:09:49] about RandomX: looks like the cache size was chosen to make it GPU-hard [08:09:56] looking forward to more docs [08:11:38] after initial skimming, I would think it's possible to make a 10x asic for RandomX. But at least for us, we will only make an ASIC if there is not a total ASIC hostility there in the first place. That's better for the secret miners then. [08:13:12] What I propose is this: we are working on an Ethash ASIC right now, and once we have that working, we would invite tevador or whoever wants to come to HK/Shenzhen and we walk you guys through how we would make a RandomX ASIC. You can then process this input in any way you like. Something like that. [08:13:49] unless asics (or other accelerators) re-emerge on XMR faster than expected, it looks like there is a little bit of time before RandomX rollout [08:14:22] 10x in what measure? $/hash or watt/hash? [08:14:46] watt/hash [08:15:19] so you can make 10 times more efficient double precisio FPU? [08:16:02] like I said let's try to be productive. You are having me here, let's work together! [08:16:15] continue with RandomX, publish more docs. that's always helpful. [08:16:37] I'm trying to understand how it's possible at all. Why AMD/Intel are so inefficient at running FP calculations? [08:18:05] midipoet ([email protected]/web/irccloud.com/x-vszshqqxwybvtsjm) has joined #monero-pow [08:18:17] hardware development works the other way round. We start with 1) math then 2) optimization priority 3) hw/sw boundary 4) IP selection 5) physical implementation [08:22:32] This still doesn't explain at which point you get 10x [08:23:07] Weren't you the ones claiming "We can accelerate ProgPoW by a factor of 3x to 8x." ? I find it hard to believe too. [08:30:20] sure [08:30:26] so my idea: first we finish our current chip [08:30:35] from simulation to silicon :) [08:30:40] we love this stuff... we do it anyway [08:30:59] now we have a communication channel, and we don't call each other names immediately anymore: big progress! [08:31:06] you know, we russians have a saying "it was smooth on paper, but they forgot about ravines" [08:31:12] So I need a bit more details [08:31:16] ha ha. good! [08:31:31] that's why I want to avoid to just make claims [08:31:34] let's work [08:31:40] RandomX comes in Sep/Oct, right? [08:31:45] Maybe [08:32:20] We need to audit it first [08:32:31] ok [08:32:59] we don't make chips to prove sw devs that their assumptions about hardware are wrong. especially not if these guys then promptly hardfork and move to the next wrong assumption :) [08:33:10] from the outside, this only means that hw & sw are devaluing each other [08:33:24] neither of us should do this [08:33:47] we are making chips that can hopefully accelerate more crypto ops in the future [08:33:52] signing, verifying, proving, etc. [08:34:02] PoW is just a feature like others [08:34:18] sech1: is it easy for you to come to Hong Kong? (visa-wise) [08:34:20] or difficult? [08:34:33] or are you there sometimes? [08:34:41] It's kind of far away [08:35:13] we are looking forward to more RandomX docs. that's the first step. [08:35:31] I want to avoid that we have some meme "Linzhi says they can accelerate XYZ by factor x" .... "ha ha ha" [08:35:37] right? we don't want that :) [08:35:39] doc is almost finished [08:35:40] What docs do you need? It's described pretty good [08:35:41] so I better say nothing now [08:35:50] we focus on our Ethash chip [08:36:05] then based on that, we are happy to walk interested people through the design and what else it can do [08:36:22] that's a better approach from my view than making claims that are laughed away (rightfully so, because no silicon...) [08:36:37] ethash ASIC is basically a glorified memory controller [08:36:39] sech1: tevador said something more is coming (he just did it again) [08:37:03] yes, some parts of RandomX are not described well [08:37:10] like dataset access logic [08:37:37] RandomX looks like progpow for CPU [08:37:54] yes [08:38:03] it is designed to reflect CPU [08:38:34] so any ASIC for it = CPU in essence [08:39:04] of course there are still some things in regular CPU that can be thrown away for RandomX [08:40:20] uncore parts are not used, but those will use very little power [08:40:37] except for memory controller [08:41:09] I'm just surprised sometimes, ok? let me ask: have you designed or taped out an asic before? isn't it risky to make assumptions about things that are largely unknown? [08:41:23] I would worry [08:41:31] that I get something wrong... [08:41:44] but I also worry like crazy that CNv4 will blow up, where you guys seem to be relaxed [08:42:06] I didn't want to bring up anything RandomX because CNv4 is such a nailbiter... :) [08:42:15] how do you guys know you don't have asics in a week or two? [08:42:38] we don't have experience with ASIC design, but RandomX is simply designed to exactly fit CPU capabilities, which is the best you can do anyways [08:43:09] similar as ProgPoW did with GPUs [08:43:14] some people say they want to do asic-resistance only until the vast majority of coins has been issued [08:43:21] that's at least reasonable [08:43:43] yeah but progpow totally will not work as advertised :) [08:44:08] yeah, I've seen that comment about progpow a few times already [08:44:11] which is no surprise if you know it's just a random sales story to sell a few more GPUs [08:44:13] RandomX is not permanent, we are expecting to switch to ASIC friendly in a few years if possible [08:44:18] yes [08:44:21] that makes sense [08:44:40] linzhi-sonia: how so? will it break or will it be asic-able with decent performance gains? [08:44:41] are you happy with CNv4 so far? [08:45:10] ah, long story. progpow is a masterpiece of deception, let's not get into it here. [08:45:21] if you know chip marketing it makes more sense [08:45:24] linzhi-sonia: So far? lol! a bit early to tell, don't you think? [08:45:35] the diff is coming down [08:45:41] first few hours looked scary [08:45:43] I remain skeptical: I only see ASICs being reasonable if they are already as ubiquitous as smartphones [08:45:46] yes, so far so good [08:46:01] we kbew the diff would not come down ubtil affter block 75 [08:46:10] yes [08:46:22] but first few hours it looks like only 5% hashrate left [08:46:27] looked [08:46:29] now it's better [08:46:51] the next worry is: when will "unexplainable" hashrate come back? [08:47:00] you hope 2-3 months? more? [08:47:05] so give it another couple of days. will probably overshoot to the downside, and then rise a bit as miners get updated and return [08:47:22] 3 months minimum turnaround, yes [08:47:28] nah [08:47:36] don't underestimate asicmakers :) [08:47:54] you guys don't get #1 priority on chip fabs [08:47:56] 3 months = 90 days. do you know what is happening in those 90 days exactly? I'm pretty sure you don't. same thing as before. [08:48:13] we don't do any secret chips btw [08:48:21] 3 months assumes they had a complete design ready to go, and added the last minute change in 1 day [08:48:24] do you know who is behind the hashrate that is now bricked? [08:48:27] innosilicon? [08:48:34] hyc: no no, and no. :) [08:48:44] hyc: have you designed or taped out a chip before? [08:48:51] yes, many years ago [08:49:10] then you should know that 90 days is not a fixed number [08:49:35] sure, but like I said, other makers have greater demand [08:49:35] especially not if you can prepare, if you just have to modify something, or you have more programmability in the chip than some people assume [08:50:07] we are chipmakers, we would never dare to do what you guys are doing with CNv4 :) but maybe that just means you are cooler! [08:50:07] and yes, programmability makes some aspect of turnaround easier [08:50:10] all fine [08:50:10] I hope it works! [08:50:28] do you know who is behind the hashrate that is now bricked? [08:50:29] inno? [08:50:41] we suspect so, but have no evidence [08:50:44] maybe we can try to find them, but we cannot spend too much time on this [08:50:53] it's probably not so much of a secret [08:51:01] why should it be, right? [08:51:10] devs want this cat-and-mouse game? devs get it... [08:51:35] there was one leak saying it's innosilicon [08:51:36] so you think 3 months, ok [08:51:43] inno is cool [08:51:46] good team [08:51:49] IP design house [08:51:54] in Wuhan [08:52:06] they send their people to conferences with fake biz cards :) [08:52:19] pretending to be other companies? [08:52:26] sure [08:52:28] ha ha [08:52:39] so when we see them, we look at whatever card they carry and laugh :) [08:52:52] they are perfectly suited for secret mining games [08:52:59] they made at most $6 million in 2 months of mining, so I wonder if it was worth it [08:53:10] yeah. no way to know [08:53:15] but it's good that you calculate! [08:53:24] this is all about cost/benefit [08:53:25] then you also understand - imagine the value of XMR goes up 5x, 10x [08:53:34] that whole "asic resistance" thing will come down like a house of cards [08:53:41] I would imagine they sell immediately [08:53:53] the investor may fully understand the risk [08:53:57] the buyer [08:54:13] it's not healthy, but that's another discussion [08:54:23] so mid-June [08:54:27] let's see [08:54:49] I would be susprised if CNv4 ASICs show up at all [08:54:56] surprised* [08:54:56] why? [08:55:05] is only an economic question [08:55:12] yeah should be interesting. FPGAs will be near their limits as well [08:55:16] unless XMR goes up a lot [08:55:19] no, not *only*. it's also a technology question [08:55:44] you believe CNv4 is "asic resistant"? which feature? [08:55:53] it's not [08:55:59] cnv4 = Rabdomx ? [08:56:03] no [08:56:07] cnv4=cryptinight/r [08:56:11] ah [08:56:18] CNv4 is the one we have now, I think [08:56:21] since yesterday [08:56:30] it's plenty enough resistant for current XMR price [08:56:45] that may be, yes! [08:56:55] I look at daily payouts. XMR = ca. 100k USD / day [08:57:03] it can hold until October, but it's not asic resistant [08:57:23] well, last 24h only 22,442 USD :) [08:57:32] I think 80 h/s per watt ASICs are possible for CNv4 [08:57:38] linzhi-sonia where do you produce your chips? TSMC? [08:57:44] I'm cruious how you would expect to build a randomX ASIC that outperforms ARM cores for efficiency, or Intel cores for raw speed [08:57:48] curious [08:58:01] yes, tsmc [08:58:21] Our team did the world's first bitcoin asic, Avalon [08:58:25] and upcoming 2nd gen Ryzens (64-core EPYC) will be a blast at RandomX [08:58:28] designed and manufactured [08:58:53] still being marketed? [08:59:03] linzhi-sonia: do you understand what xmr wants to achieve, community-wise? [08:59:14] Avalon? as part of Canaan Creative, yes I think so. [08:59:25] there's not much interesting oing on in SHA256 [08:59:29] Inge-: I would think so, but please speak [08:59:32] hyc: yes [09:00:28] linzhi-sonia: i am curious to hear your thoughts. I am fairly new to this space myself... [09:00:51] oh [09:00:56] we are grandpas, and grandmas [09:01:36] yet I have no problem understanding why ASICS are currently reviled. [09:01:48] xmr's main differentiators to, let's say btc, are anonymity and fungibility [09:01:58] I find the client terribly slow btw [09:02:21] and I think the asic-forking since last may is wrong, doesn't create value and doesn't help with the project objectives [09:02:25] which "the client" ? [09:02:52] Monero GUI client maybe [09:03:12] MacOS, yes [09:03:28] What exactly is slow? [09:03:30] linzhi-sonia: I run my own node, and use the CLI and Monerujo. Have not had issues. [09:03:49] staying in sync [09:03:49] linzhi-sonia: decentralization is also a key principle [09:03:56] one that Bitcoin has failed to maintain [09:04:39] hmm [09:05:00] looks fairly decentralized to me. decentralization is the result of 3 goals imo: resilient, trustless, permissionless [09:05:28] don't ask a hardware maker about physical decentralization. that's too ideological. we focus on logical decentralization. [09:06:11] physical decentralization is important. with bulk of bitnoin mining centered on Chinese hydroelectric dams [09:06:19] have you thought about including block data in the PoW? [09:06:41] yes, of course. [09:07:39] is that already in an algo? [09:08:10] hyc: about "centered on chinese hydro" - what is your source? the best paper I know is this: https://coinshares.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Mining-Whitepaper-Final.pdf [09:09:01] linzhi-sonia: do you mine on your ASICs before you sell them? [09:09:13] besides testing of course [09:09:45] that paper puts Chinese btc miners at 60% max [09:10:05] tevador: I think everybody learned that that is not healthy long-term! [09:10:16] because it gives the chipmaker a cost advantage over its own customers [09:10:33] and cost advantage leads to centralization (physical and logical) [09:10:51] you guys should know who finances progpow and why :) [09:11:05] but let's not get into this, ha ha. want to keep the channel civilized. right OhGodAGirl ? :) [09:11:34] tevador: so the answer is no! 100% and definitely no [09:11:54] that "self-mining" disease was one of the problems we have now with asics, and their bad reputation (rightfully so) [09:13:08] I plan to write a nice short 2-page paper or so on our chip design process. maybe it's interesting to some people here. [09:13:15] basically the 5 steps I mentioned before, from math to physical [09:13:32] linzhi-sonia: the paper you linked puts 48% of bitcoin mining in Sichuan. the total in China is much more than 60% [09:13:38] need to run it by a few people to fix bugs, will post it here when published [09:14:06] hyc: ok! I am just sharing the "best" document I know today. it definitely may be wrong and there may be a better one now. [09:14:18] hyc: if you see some reports, please share [09:14:51] hey I am really curious about this: where is a PoW algo that puts block data into the PoW? [09:15:02] the previous paper I read is from here http://hackingdistributed.com/2018/01/15/decentralization-bitcoin-ethereum/ [09:15:38] hyc: you said that already exists? (block data in PoW) [09:15:45] it would make verification harder [09:15:49] linzhi-sonia: https://the-eye.eu/public/Books/campdivision.com/PDF/Computers%20General/Privacy/bitcoin/meh/hashimoto.pdf [09:15:51] but for chips it would be interesting [09:15:52] we discussed the possibility about a year ago https://www.reddit.com/Monero/comments/8bshrx/what_we_need_to_know_about_proof_of_work_pow/ [09:16:05] oh good links! thanks! need to read... [09:16:06] I think that paper by dryja was original [09:17:53] since we have a nice flow - second question I'm very curious about: has anyone thought about in-protocol rewards for other functions? [09:18:55] we've discussed micropayments for wallets to use remote nodes [09:18:55] you know there is a lot of work in other coins about STARK provers, zero-knowledge, etc. many of those things very compute intense, or need to be outsourced to a service (zether). For chipmakers, in-protocol rewards create an economic incentive to accelerate those things. [09:19:50] whenever there is an in-protocol reward, you may get the power of ASICs doing something you actually want to happen [09:19:52] it would be nice if there was some economic reward for running a fullnode, but no one has come up with much more than that afaik [09:19:54] instead of fighting them off [09:20:29] you need to use asics, not fight them. that's an obvious thing to say for an asicmaker... [09:20:41] in-protocol rewards can be very powerful [09:20:50] like I said before - unless the ASICs are so useful they're embedded in every smartphone, I dont see them being a positive for decentralization [09:21:17] if they're a separate product, the average consumer is not going to buy them [09:21:20] now I was talking about speedup of verifying, signing, proving, etc. [09:21:23] they won't even know what they are [09:22:07] if anybody wants to talk about or design in-protocol rewards, please come talk to us [09:22:08] the average consumer also doesn't use general purpose hardware to secure blockchains either [09:22:14] not just for PoW, in fact *NOT* for PoW [09:22:32] it requires sw/hw co-design [09:23:10] we are in long-term discussions/collaboration over this with Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash. just talk right now. [09:23:16] this was recently published though suggesting more uptake though I guess https://btcmanager.com/college-students-are-the-second-biggest-miners-of-cryptocurrency/ [09:23:29] I find it pretty hard to believe their numbers [09:24:03] well [09:24:09] sorry, original article: https://www.pcmag.com/news/366952/college-kids-are-using-campus-electricity-to-mine-crypto [09:24:11] just talk, no? rumors [09:24:18] college students are already more educated than the average consumer [09:24:29] we are not seeing many such customers anymore [09:24:30] it's data from cisco monitoring network traffic