#1 Simple Bitcoin Price History Chart (Since 2009)
Bitcoin price index monthly 2012-2020 | Statista
Is anyone else spooked by the stock market recovery? Worried I'm spending too much time in the sidelines thinking it's a bubble...
I'm 25 I learnt a painful lesson in 2018 after investing in crypto at all time highs - not just bitcoin, but altcoins heavily which dropped 99%. Never looked at stocks until covid-induced crash. I managed to buy some stocks at incredible low prices (Boeing, Carnival, housing stocks, oil companies, Uber etc). I invested 3.5k initially but sold some early and got spooked in mid April and sold everything. I'm only up like £350 quid, but honestly if I held maybe I would be up like 70-100%. This concerns me as the stock market has all but virtually betted on a V-shaped recovery Last thing I want to do is buy things near all time high and fomo in - never mind buying them in the middle of a global pandemic. I'd rather buy in after the Dow hits 40k and corrects at 35k rather than buy at these prices in uncharted territory. As someone on average wage £30k, single and living in London (although WFH with parents up north atm) I'm going to find it hard to FIRE without investing. I'm not trying to time the market, I'm trying to invest in a 'normal/stable' time, what's happened in th last few months is unprecedented - although understandable after a crash. EDIT: I am looking at ETFs and index funds for a more diversified portfolio rather than picking individual stocks like I was in March. I know this is much safer.
For Trading JULY 8th JOLTs 5.4 vs. 5 Million NVAX gets $1.6B from BARDA Today’s market got off to a very soft start in the DJIA but not so much in the NASDAQ and S&P-500, with the DJIA starting off -240 and managing a rally only as far as -125 before spending several hours going sideways until the last hour of trading when the NASDAQ and S&P ran out of steam and fell below the close and the selloff resumed. It’s never a good thing when and overbought index makes a new all-time high and then closes down and on the lows. The DJIA was -396.85 (1.51%), NASDAQ -89.76 (.86%), S&P 500 -34.30 (1.08%), the Russell -26.89 (1.86%) and the DJ Transports -108 (1.1%). The internals were 3:1 down on NYSE and 2.5:1 on NASDAQ with volume on the NYSE 2:1 down also. The DJIA was 28 down and only 2 up with WMT the big gainer +55 DP’s and on the downside, BA-62, GS -55, and UNH -43DP’s. Even with the good JOLTs number, this market is just over-extended and tired. The stat I mentioned in tonight’s video about the S&P is very telling, I think, with the S&P only 2% off its high, the median S&P stock is down 11%. This market has simply gotten too narrow and it will correct. We sold half of the remaining NEM 7/17 $60’s bought @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94, and today’s sale was @ $3.20. They closed today $3.20. We also own a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .75, and we also added a spread using the NEM 8/65 / 70 calls at a $1.30 debit. Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/5afUNy48sFI Our Discord Forum link is on the video description.. SECTORS: The FAANG names all finished near the lows, several like MSFT coming off a new all-time high and closing down on the day. Not a good sign if they follow-thru to the downside tomorrow. Also having trouble was CCL, who has had to cancel several cruises for Q4 and Q1 2021. It closed $14.57 -1.04 (6.7%). Add to that, the UAL report that it is giving warnings that it will be laying off “10’2 of thousands of employees.” UAL finished $32.55 -2.66 (7.55%). These two companies do not operate in a vacuum, so both groups are in jeopardy, again. Novavax (NVAX) got a $1.6billion grant from BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) to help it along in it’s search for a workable vaccine. The stock, up from $8 as late as the end of February had worked its way up to $85 last month and opened today $104 and traded as high as $111.77 and finished $104.56 +25.12 (31.63%). Don’t get too crazy with this one, this is not its first rodeo. In 2015 it was trading $300 before it had a failure on a different vaccine and the stock fell to $80 before a rally and then in the week of 9/16/2016 it fell further from $169.80 to $23.20 and then on to the adjusted (1:20 reverse) low around $4.00. We’ll hope for a better outcome this time around. Walmart was the big winner on a RECODE that said they are ready to launch Walmart +, to compete with Amazon Prime for same day grocery delivery and next day for other products. Its move today added 55 DP’s to the averages. I don’t think it’s a big deal since for the same money, with Prime you get streaming too. And the margins on groceries are razor thin. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.67, BGS +.70, FLO -.03, CPB -.11, CAG +.54, MDLZ -.22, KHC +.22, CALM +.03, JJSF -1.43, SAFM +.54, HRL -.14, SJM +.18, PPC -.34, KR -.03, and PBJ $31.56 +.06 (.19%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB - -1.72, ABBV +.72, REGN +14.50, ISRG -9.30, GILD -.13, MYL -.43, TEVA -.29, VRTX +8.35, BHC -.59, INCY +.86, ICPT -.74, LABU +3.36, and IBB $140.15 +.71 (.51%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.13, CGC -.40, CRON -.19, GWPH +2.93, ACB +.17, CURLF -.07, KERN -.62 and MJ $13.08 -.01 (.08%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -8.59, GD -3.29, TXT -1.73, NOC -7.89, BWXT -1.78, TDY – 7.84, RTX -2.12 and ITA $160.32 -6.10 (3.67%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.03, JWN -.58, KSS -.72, DDS -.88, WMT +9.11 (7.66%), TGT -1.40, TJX -1.84, RL -2.49, UAA -.41, LULU -6.66, TPR -.51, CPRI -.18 and XRT $43.78 -.43 (.97%). FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -7.40, AMZN -44.69, AAPL +1.06, FB -.91, NFLX +.69, NVDA +3.06, TSLA +9.42, BABA -2.60, BIDU -4.54, CMG -10.92, CAT -2.03, BA -8.57, DIS -.53 and XLK $106.34 -.77 (.72%). FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS – 7.91, JPM2.52, BAC -.63, MS -1.32, C -1.53, PNC -3.15, AIG -1.36, TRV -2.45, AXP -3.48, V -3.13, and XLF $22.93 -.48 (2.05%). OIL, $40.62 -.01. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $36.26 -1.19 (3.18%). GOLD $1,809.80 +16.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high OF $1807.70 Last night I said “we’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains.” Unfortunately, we pulled back to 1,767 instead. We rallied a bit and finished only slightly better. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 and half of what was left today @ $3.20, we closed $3.20 + .80 today. BITCOIN: closed $9,290 -65. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.76 - .19 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
COVID-19's Economic Impact in Canada: a collection of stats on jobs losses, investment returns, consumer confidence, interest rates, housing, and future forecasts
Over the past few weeks, the COVID crisis has hurt the Canadian economy and the average Canadian's financial situation in more ways than one. I tried to tally up the damage by going through the info that's been published thus far (by Stats Can, the Bank of Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, news sites, etc.), and have put together some visualizations and commentary on the data. In summary:
Stats Can's March labour force survey showed that 3.1 million Canadians had their job situation impacted negatively during the survey period (March 15 - March 21); that's ~16% of Canada's total labour force
1 million Canadians lost their jobs; 0.8 million had a job but didn't work any hours; 1.3 million had a job but worked less than half of their usual hours
Canadians worked 15% fewer hours in the month of March vs February; the impact was highest in Quebec (-19%), and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (-8.4%)
As of April 13th, nearly 6 million Canadians have applied for CERB or EI (reported by the CBC)
Investments (2020 year-to-date returns)
Stock markets are down by roughly 15 - 20% (TSX Composite is down by 17%)
Bond markets are roughly flat
Gold is up by 14% (as investors tend to flock to gold in times of economic uncertainty)
Bitcoin is down by 4%
Canadian oil prices are down by ~70%
Google search volume in Canada for the terms "recession" and "layoff" are the highest on record, even surpassing the search volume during the 2008 recession
The Conference Board of Canada's "Index of Consumer Confidence" registered the largest monthly decline ever in March
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate 3 separate times in March, dropping the rate from 1.75% to 0.25%
The rate hasn't been this low since the 2008 recession
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed a 16% decline in home sale volumes in the Greater Toronto Area in the second half of March
RBC Economics expects that “Canada’s housing market will slow to a crawl this spring”, and that housing prices will face a temporary set-back — with an estimated 2.9% year-over-year price decline in the second half of 2020
Post-COVID Economic Forecasts
On April 9th, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer released a “scenario analysis” report on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy.
It’s estimated that the federal government’s responses to the COVID crisis will have a total cost of over $105 billion
As a result, Canada’s budget deficit in the 2020-21 fiscal year will rise to $185 billion, or roughly 8.5% of GDP
Canada’s budget deficit hasn’t been this high (based on % of GDP) since the 1984-85 fiscal year
In 2020, Canada will have real GDP growth of -5.1%, and an unemployment rate of 12.4%; for context, Canada's real GDP only declined by 3.3% in 2009
The number of unemployed Canadians will rise from 1.2 million (Q4 2019) to 3.1 million (Q3 2020)
These points are addressed in chart form at the link above. You can download a spreadsheet which contains all of the source data / charts. There's also a summary of the emergency response initiatives announced by the federal government (CERB, GST credit, CCB one-time payment, the 75% wage subsidy, etc.), and thoughts about steps that Canadians can take today to improve their financial situation. I'll continue to update the page as new economic stats roll-in, and as the government announces new initiatives. I'd love to hear your thoughts about COVID's economic impact in Canada. Also, please feel free to share any other stats, articles, or reports that you think are relevant!
Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020
We would rather be ruined than changed. -W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757 Secured physical gold – $18 913 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479 Bitcoin – $148 990 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484 Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under) Global shares – 22.0% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under) Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.7% International bonds – 9.4% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 7.7% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March. The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year. [Chart] The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017. [Chart] There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf). A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains. As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here. Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. A moving azimuth: falling spending continues Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. [Chart] The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending. This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month. [Chart] There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile. Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations. Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June. These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey. This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably. A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades. I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
An 'adjusted income' approach - stripping out the capital gains components of Vanguard funds to reach an estimate of underlying income generation, both across the entire investment period, and during the sharpest low of the Global Financial Crisis
A long-term asset class approach - relying on long-term historical data on averages of the income produced by various asset classes
A 'tax method' approach - this derives an income estimate as a percentage of the portfolio by drawing on taxable investment income totals from tax return records
Simple historical rolling average - this is a rolling three-year measure, based on the actual distributions record of the portfolio
Average distribution rate approach - this method uses a long-term average of annual distributions received as a percentage of the total portfolio since 1999
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks. Developing new navigation tools Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns. This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets. In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years. Mapping the distribution estimates The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come. [Chart] Some observations on these findings can be made. The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on. Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome. Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations. Central estimates of the line of position This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range. I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence. My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure. None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data. These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years. As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive. Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9% Summary The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions. Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well. Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias. This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface. Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half. With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real. Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change? The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), is one of the most popular indicators used in Technical Analysis. Firstly Introduced in J. Welles Wilder’s book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems”, the RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the velocity of directional price movement and scaled between 0-100. In the classic view, security is thought to be overbought when its RSI reading is above 70 and oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.
# How is it Calculated?
The equation for the Relative Strength Index, RSI, is: RSI Formula For the first calculation of the Relative Strength Index, RSI, we need the previous 14 day’s close prices. The initial RSI is calculated as follows:
Obtain the sum of the UP closes for the previous 14 days and divide this sum by 14. This is the average UP close.
Obtain the sum of the DOWN closes for the previous 14 days and divide this sum by 14. This is the average DOWN close.
Divide the average UP close by the average DOWN close. This is the Relative Strength (RS).
Add 1.00 to the RS.
Divide the result obtained in Step (4) Into 100 (100 is the nominator).
Subtract the result obtained in Step 5 from 100. This is the first RSI.
From this point on, it is only necessary to use the previous average UP close and the previous average DOWN close in the calculation of the next RSI.
# How to Use it Correctly
If used properly, the RSI can be a very valuable tool in interpreting chart movement. Tops and Bottoms: These are indicated when the Index goes above 70 or below 30. The Index will usually top out or bottom out before the actual market top or bottom, giving an indication that a reversal or at least a significant reaction is imminent. Failure Swings: When the RSI crosses down the 70 level and rebounds back up yet fails to reach the previous high. The low point made when the RSI rebounded is considered as a potential short entry point when the RSI moves below this level. Conversely, when the RSI crosses up over the 30 level and rebounds back down but fails to move as low as the previous low reading, it is a failure swing. The peak made when the RSI rebounded is considered a potential long entry point when the RSI moves above this level. Support and Resistance: Areas of support and resistance often show up clearly on the RSI before becoming apparent on the bar chart. In fact, support and resistance lines drawn using the RSI points are often analogous to trend lines drawn using bar chart points. Divergence: Divergence between price action and the RSI is a very strong indicator of a market turning point. Divergence occurs when the RSI is increasing while the price movement is either flat or decreasing. Conversely, divergence occurs when the RSI is decreasing price movement is either flat or increasing. Here is an example of a bullish divergence on BTC/USD (Bitcoin) which signaled the bullish trend occurred after that: RSI Example As you can see, a bullish divergence formed in November-December of 19. The bullish divergence formed with Bitcoin moving to new lows in December and RSI holding above its prior low. The mid-December breakout confirmed improving momentum. Divergences tend to be more robust when they form after an overbought or oversold reading.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), used in conjunction with a bar chart, can provide a new dimension of interpretation for the chart trader. No single tool, method or system is going to produce the right answers 100% of the time. A successful trader utilizes several different kinds of input into his decisions. The Relative Strength Index can be a valuable input to your toolbox and into your decision-making process.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator (oscillator is a line graph that moves between two extremes).
It is scaled between 0 – 100.
When the RSI reading is above 70 it usually considered overbought and when it falls below 30 it usually considered oversold.
The standard is to use 14 periods to calculate the initial RSI value, but you can choose the time frame you think fit the most.
I applied price discovery algorithms to 5 Min OHLCV data from Bitmex and CME contracts and Bitstamp, Coinbase, HitBTC, Kraken, Poloniex, Binance, and OkEx BTCUSD/BTCUSDT markets from March 2016 to May 2020. Some exciting results I got was:
Before the 2017/18 bull run, Bitfinex dominated the price discovery process. They started the run. But as the price increased, trades on other exchanges, Binance and Bitstamp played a more dominant role in leading the price up.
Since then, CME Contracts and Bitmex contracts have had an increasing role in price discovery. Today Bitmex and CME Contracts play the most substantial role in determining the direction of Bitcoin price.
In 2020, market dominance by Bitmex has been negatively correlated with price. Dominance by Bitfinex, Huobi and OkCoin has had high positive correlation with price.
Price discovery is the overall process of setting the price of an asset. Price discovery algorithms identify the leader exchanges whose traders define the price. Two approaches are most famous for use in Price Discovery. Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and Hasbrouck (1995). But they assume random walk, and a common efficient price. I do not feel comfortable assuming random walk and common efficient price in Bitcoin Markets. So I used this little know method by De Blasis (2019) for this analysis. This work assumes that "the fastest price to reflect new information releases a price signal to the other slower price series." I thought this was valid in our market. It uses Markov Chains to measure Price Discovery. Without going into the mathematical details the summary steps used was:
Data is first grouped into a daily interval. Then inside each daily interval's 5-minute candles, the change in prices between the current time t and previous time t-1 is calculated. The difference across the same time t across all exchanges in a given day is juxtaposed to create an initial matrix.
The initial matrix is used to create a Transition Matrix, which measures the probability of price changing to something else at time t+1 for its state at t.
Then other Markov Chain based algorithms are used to measure the influence an exchange at time t had over all other exchanges' price movement at time t+1 individually.
Reduction and normalization is done to this data. In the end, each exchange receives a single number that sums to 1 for a given day.
De Blasis (2019) names this number Price Leadership Share (PLS). High PLS indicates a large role in price discovery. As the sum of the numbers is 1, they can be looked at as a percentage contribution. I recommend reading the original paper if you are interested to know more about the mathematical detail.
Andersen (2000) argues that 5 Minute window provides the best trade-off between getting enough data and avoiding noise. In one of the first work on Bitcoin's Price Discovery, Brandvold et al. 2015 had used 5M window. So I obtained 5M OHLCV data using the following sources:
Poloniex, Bitfinex, Binance and HitBTC: Exchange's API through CCXT.
CME: Okay, this was was supposed to be tricky and expensive. I broke a TOS and scraped the data for free, removing the expensive part from the equation. I will not go into detail about where I scraped this data.
Futures data are different from other data because multiple futures contract trades at the same time. I formed a single data from the multiple time series by selecting the nearest contract until it was three days from expiration. I used the next contract when the contract was three days from expiration. This approach was advocated by Booth et al ( 1999 )
I can't embed the chart on reddit so open this https://warproxxx.github.io/static/price_discovery.html In the figure above, each colored line shows the total influence the exchange had towards the discovery of Bitcoin Price on that day. Its axis is on the left. The black line shows a moving average of the bitcoin price at the close in Bitfinex for comparison. The chart was created by plotting the EMA of price and dominance with a smoothing factor of 0.1. This was done to eliminate the noise. Let's start looking from the beginning. We start with a slight Bitfinex dominance at the start. When the price starts going up, Bitfinex's influence does too. This was the time large Tether printing was attributed to the rise of price by many individuals. But Bitfinex's influence wanes down as the price starts rising (remember that the chart is an exponential moving average. Its a lagging indicator). Afterward, exchanges like Binance and Bitstamp increase their role, and there isn't any single leader in the run. So although Bitfinex may have been responsible for the initial pump trades on other exchanges were responsible for the later rally. CME contracts were added to our analysis in February 2018. Initially, they don't have much influence. On a similar work Alexandar and Heck (2019) noted that initially CBOE contracts had more influence. CBOE later delisted Bitcoin futures so I couldn't get that data. Overall, Bitmex and CME contracts have been averaging around 50% of the role in price discovery. To make the dominance clear, look at this chart where I add Bitmex Futures and Perp contract's dominance figure to create a single dominance index. There bitmex leads 936 of the total 1334 days (Bitfinex leads 298 days and coinbase and binance get 64 and 6 days). That is a lot. One possible reason for this might be Bitmex's low trading fee. Bitmex has a very generous -0.025% maker fee and price discovery tend to occur primarily in the market with smaller trading costs (Booth et al, 1999). It may also be because our market is mature. In mature markets, futures lead the price discovery.
Table 1: Days Lead
Out of 1334 days in the analysis, Bitmex futures leads the discovery in 571 days or nearly 43% of the duration. Bitfinex leads for 501 days. Bitfinex's high number is due to its extreme dominance in the early days.
Table 2: Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index
Binance, Huobi, CME, and OkCoin had the most significant correlation with the close price. Bitmex, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp's dominance were negatively correlated. This was very interesting. To know more, I captured a yearwise correlation.
Table 3: Yearwise Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index Price movement is pretty complicated. If one factor, like a dominant exchange, could explain it, everyone would be making money trading. With this disclaimer out of the way, let us try to make some conclusions. This year Bitfinex, Huobi, and OkEx, Tether based exchanges, discovery power have shown a high correlation with the close price. This means that when the traders there become successful, price rises. When the traders there are failing, Bitmex traders dominate and then the price is falling. I found this interesting as I have been seeing the OkEx whale who has been preceding price rises in this sub. I leave the interpretation of other past years to the reader.
My analysis does not include market data for other derivative exchanges like Huobi, OkEx, Binance, and Deribit. So, all future market's influence may be going to Bitmex. I did not add their data because they started having an impact recently. A more fair assessment may be to conclude this as the new power of derivative markets instead of attributing it as the power of Bitmex. But Bitmex has dominated futures volume most of the time (until recently). And they brought the concept of perpetual swaps.
There is a lot in this data. If you are making a trading algo think there is some edge here. Someday I will backtest some trading logic based on this data. Then I will have more info and might write more. But, this analysis was enough for to shift my focus from a Bitfinex based trading algorithm to a Bitmex based one. It has been giving me good results. If you have any good ideas that you want me to write about or discuss further please comment. If there is enough interest in this measurement, I can setup a live interface that provides the live value.
Established in 2018, MXC has become a one-stop service provider. It is now able to provide users spot, margin, contract, leveraged ETF, Index Products, Contract, PoS Staking, OTC services. It emerges as one of the fastest growing exchanges in the world. In 2019, the daily trading volume of MXC took 5% of the world’s digital market. Besides, leveraged ETF products on MXC took lion share in the world of the same kind of products based on data from CryptoRank. On top of that, It obtained regulation-compliance licenses in many countries, like U.S., Canada, Australia, etc. and is able to carry out digital asset service in these countries. https://preview.redd.it/xmdorlqtjt951.png?width=1298&format=png&auto=webp&s=b791ee9dc47ff43cca9bf281cacbc05a61fa2632 In the aspect of OTC trading, MXC established partnership with Simplex, a European regulation-compliance payment company, and Banxa, a legal payment company in South-east Asia, allowing users to use Visa and Mastercard to buy cryptocurrencies, like BTC, ETH, etc. directly. In the aspect of spot trading, MXC now support over 200 trading pairs. In addition to the top market cap coins and token, it has listed many high-quality DeFi projects, like COMP, MKR, SNX, KNC, LEND, REN, BNT, IDEX, SWTH, OKS, RUNE, KAVA, BAL, UMA, etc. as well as projects of Polkadot ecosystem, like KSM, EDG, PCX, RING, etc. In the aspect of margin trading, MXC supports the largest number of margin pairs among all exchanges across the globe, with 2 – 10x leverage available. The automatic loan and repayment functions are available. With the coming of the upgraded margin system, the depth, price difference, loan efficiency and matching efficiency have greatly updated. In the aspect of leveraged ETF, MXC, learned from traditional financial products, introduced in re-balance system, so there’s no liquidation risks in buying leveraged ETF products. Leveraged ETF tracks the changes of the underlying assets with 3x leverage. “3L” products refer to 3x long, while “3S” products 3x short. Now it 3x leverage for 29 cryptocurrencies, including BTC, BCH, BSV, DASH, ZEC, ATOM, XTZ, ALGO, etc. In the extreme market on March 12, 2020, BTC plummeted a high of 52.36% and the ordinary 3x leverage products for BTC plunged by 157.08%. However, with the re-balance system, the BTC3L product on MXC decreased by 92.96%, lower than the ordinary 3x leverage products and protect the interest of users in some extent. Furthermore, in the following market, the BTC3L product rose by 236%, higher than the 167.41% of ordinary 3x leverage product. The leveraged ETF once became the label of MXC, "Huobi's OTC, OKex’s contract, MXC’s ETF and Binance's spot." The popularity of leveraged ETFs has attracted many exchanges to follow suit. In terms of index products, MXC officially launched index products under the ETF zone, including decentralized storage asset index, mainstream cryptocurrency index, DeFi asset index, public chain index, 2020 halving cryptocurrency index. MXC index products are similar to traditional financial fund products, and each index product is composed of multiple constituent cryptocurrencies. According to the announcement, the MXC Index product will be adjusted according to the average daily turnover ratio of the previous 30 days, that is, the proportion of the component cryptocurrency will be adjusted. If the target does not meet the representativeness and investability, the index may be removed from the product. Decentralized storage combination components are STORJ, LAMB, GNX, BLZ; mainstream currency combination, components are BTC, ETH, LTC, EOS, ETC, BCH, BSV, XRP; DeFi asset components are KNC, ZRX, KAVA, NEST; Public chain combination, the components are TRX, VET, NEO, QTUM, BTM, ONT, IOST; halving index components are BTC, ETC, BCH, BSV, ZEC, DASH. Index products can help users not miss the bull market. Any one of the constituent cryptocurrencies increase, the user can make gains. Secondly, it can help avoid the risk of a single cryptocurrency’s plunging. In addition, it can also help save investment time and improve investment efficiency. In terms of contract transactions, MXC upgraded the contract trading system and launched a new version of the contract in June this year. MXC contract trading currently supports free adjustment of 1-100x leverage multiples. In the isolated margin mode, users can still adjust the leverage multiples after opening a position, and support isolated margin conversion to cross margin, which can help users pursue the market with all their strength. It supports users to place stop profit and stop loss orders at the same time, while occupying only one margin. It supports Post Only (Maker only) and IOC (Immediately or cancel all) strategies. Under Post Only (Maker only), the user will not immediately place an order on the market when placing an order, to ensure that the order is always Maker (pending order), saving handling fees. IOC function, that is, if the order cannot be fully executed, the rest will be cancelled. For example, the BTC price index of MXC selects the bitcoin spot prices of 6 exchanges, namely: Coinbase, Bitstamp, Binance, Huobi, OKEx, Bitfinex. If the spot price of an exchange deviates from the median of all exchanges by ±3%, the spot price of the exchange is calculated according to the median of ±3%. Use reasonable prices for liquidation, which are based on index prices. In addition, underlined proper nouns on the webpage, as long as the mouse points up, the corresponding explanation will be displayed, which is convenient for users to understand. In terms of PoS pools, MXC supports three types of PoS: Saving, Staking and Lending. Among them, PoS saving does not need to lock assets, and holding assets can obtain income.
The fed is currently anticipated to attempt negative interest rates again. This is setting us up for the perfect storm and I will explain why. What are negative interest rates? This is ominous. Negative interest rates are used to encourage people to invest their money in securities rather than the relative safety of government bonds. For example, most government bonds will guarantee you a rate of return that is usually higher than average inflation rates, so if you were to open a loan for 10k with a 2.5% interest rate, you could expect to see $250 at the end of the term, likely beating the inflation rate by somewhere around 0.5%. People who are close to retirement or are exceptionally risk averse do this to avoid losing dollar value of their cash to inflation. With a negative rate, you would PAY the government to hold your money. This is obviously not an advantageous position to be in, so you might be more likely to invest in securities instead. This is what the fed's intention is. You may have noticed volume across many securities and ETFs is much lower than its recent volume, or in some cases, its yearly average. Consumer confidence is not high at this point, so the fed is attempting to use this as additional incentive to get people to invest. Papa Buffett literally said nothing is cheap enough for him to buy. Think about that. Boeing for 130? Not for Papa Buffett, he's trying to pay 50. But Cigs, the market is fake and gay right now, what if I don't want to invest in securities? You're right, the market is fake and gay. Well, fortunately for you, there are options, and I don't mean derivatives. Your first option (Boomers hate this one trick) is crypto. Crypto is governed by nothing and no one but the blockchain, thus its value cannot be manipulated by anything except the free market. If we see extended negative fed interest rates, crypto will skyrocket. Dont believe me? Look at when the news was published today, then look at what happened to Bitcoin. An obstacle here is an unprecedented collapse in the market; at that point, nothing is safe. Your second option is to invest in commodities. But wait, I thought you said Oil was kill? Hell yeah oil is kill, so that one is out. What else do we have? Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Silicon, literally anything precious metal, particularly the standard staples and anything used for semiconductor manufacturing. There are some good ETFs for these out there. Find them, and I don't mean the fucking miner's index, I mean one that reflects the spot price. These boys are going uppies. Pay close attention to what ETFs the fed is allowed to stick their grubby fingers in with the recent changes to buy policies and avoid those. Also keep an ear to the ground for rumors of liquidations, rollovers or non-accurate reflections of spot price within the ETF. Your third option is cash. This is me, with some dibble dabble derivatives in there for fun because I'm a degenerate. The Perfect Storm (Personal Speculation) If Oil collapses with WTI rollouts in late May like I anticipate, we will soon see a default cascade of legendary proportions. Shale, restaurants, small business, MASSIVE layoffs (you thought 25% unemployment was bad?) But this might take a while. Negative interest rates will stimulate lending and banks will continue lending this practically free money to more and more small businesses, car buyers, home buyers and personal loans with greater and greater risk (Aren't you glad you long dated those WFC calls?). This process could take months or even years. We're already in a worse debt bubble than the 2008 crisis by a long shot, and with little regulation, no lessons learned and virtually no risk, banks will continue to fleece everyone from your grandmother to the fed. Stimulus checks are barely keeping people afloat right now, and small business owners are on the brink of bankruptcy. But states are opening back up! We're allowed 50% capacity at restaurants in my city! Have you ever tried to work in a restaurant that is half as busy as usual, let alone own one? The owners are sweating fucking bullets over this. It's worse than being closed. There are a record number of new investors in the market right now. With the advent of commission free trading from robinhood, the big boys have adopted the same strategy, and as such, record numbers of brand new investors have entered the market. Just think about how many times a day you look at your positions every day. These guys are all doing the exact same thing, and once our first major catalyst comes, we're going back down and there won't be much to stop the panic sell of 2 million brand new investors. Spy 175 flair for anyone that wants one. It's 1929. (Here's a free one, puts on mid/small cap industrials that supply SPY companies. Thank me later) As always, feel free to comment and tell me why I'm wrong.
For Trading JULY 17th NFLX Misses, Poor Guidance NASDAQ Still Weaker ECONOMIC #S STRONG Today’s market got off to soft a start with the NASDAQ futures down as much (points, 2.4X percent) and all of the averages fell to the lows of the early trade in the first 15 minutes and the only one NOT to rally was the NASDAQ. It continued lower for another 2 hours and finally made it back to the high of the day around 1:30, although still down and fell to a new low by 3:00 but rallied into the close to finish -136.39 (.50%), NASDAQ -76.66 (.73%), S&P 500 -10.99 (.34%), the Russell -10.71 (.72%), and the DJ Transports +53.95 (.55%). The DJIA was 17:13 Down with the big losers being BA -63DP’s, AAPL -33, MSFT -29 and V -21 DP’S. The overall internals 7:6 down on the NYSE and 3:2 on the NASDAQ while volume was slightly lower. The early morning employment numbers were better with initial claims 1.3million and continuing claims 17.338. Retail sales gained 7.5% vs 5.2 expected, ex-autos and gas they were 6.7%. Business inventories were in-line at 2.3 and NAHB housing index was 72 +14 vs 62 expected. All in all, a good showing, even if the market didn’t react to the upside. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/kCN9QYyQnWc SECTORS: NFLX was the feature this afternoon with a disappointing report after the close. While they had a beat on earnings, it wasn’t as good as the “whisper number” and the forward guidance for Q3 was a major miss. The stock had closed $527.39 +4.13 (.79%) but immediately fell to $449.65 before bouncing back a bit to its current level of $473.00 -54.49 (10.33%). PPG reported with a beat on lowered expectations, always an issue for me, while the year over year sales were lower by 24%. Nonetheless, the stock, well off the March low of $70, closed 115.26 -.36 but rallied up to the current level of $120.02 +4.80 (4.17%). The airlines and cruise lines gave up all of yesterday’s pointless gains when the CDC said that there would be no cruise ships in U.S. waters until at least October. This sent the big 3 down with NCLH the big loser -16%, CCL -9.8% and RCL -7.6%. Airlines fared no better with AAL, who sent out 25,000 layoff warnings -7.4%, LUV -4.3%, DAL -4.7% and JBLU -4.6%. After the close AAL and JBLU announced a customer-share agreement to help in the Northeast. I can’t emphasize this enough, at least one or two of these companies will chapter. All of the equity and debt being raised will saddle these companies and mortgage all of their assets. It does not add anything to their ability to create earnings, but just to survive until things get back to “normal,” whatever that actually means. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.15, BGS +.35, FLO unch., CPB +.34, CAG -.15, MDLZ +.94, KHC +1.25, CALM -.39, JJSF +1.85, SAFM +1.38, HRL +.71, SJM +.20, PPC +.09, KR -.10, and PBJ $32.39 +.09 (.28%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.07, ABBV -.58, REGN -.53, ISRG -3.80, GILD -.24, MYL -.14, TEVA -.44, VRTX -4.55, BHC -.34, INCY -2.67, ICPT +1.43, LABU -2.10, and IBB $140.70 -1.92 (1.35%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.15, CGC -.06, CRON -.17, GWPH -.17, ACB -.73, CURLF -.18, KERN -.27, and MJ $13.35 -.29 (2.13%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +1.24, GD +2.25, TXT -.15, NOC +2.89, BWXT +.77, TDY +1/05, RTX -.84, and ITA $163.47 -1.72 (1.04%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.32, JWN -.17, KSS +.23, DDS +.42, WMT +.85, TGT +.27, TJX +.62, RL +.41, UAA +.05, LULU +.57, TPR -.22, CPRI +.10, and XRT $45.68 +.29 (.64%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -11.88, AMZN -42.84, AAPL -5.75, FB -.39, NFLX -43.68, NVDA -5.24, TSLA -57.97, BABA -6.21, BIDU -1.77, CMG -3.65, CAT +.19, BA -9.44, DIS -1.92, and XLK $106.31 -1.33 (1.24%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS -2.40, JPM +.28, BAC -.75, MS +1.48, C -.36, PNC +2.07, AIG +.78, TRV +1.36, AXP -1.28, V -3.11, and XLF $24.15 UNCH. OIL, $40.93 -.47. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and we finally did that today. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $37.21 -.17 (.45%). GOLD $1,800.30 -13.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.10 -.30. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $ .79 -.76. BITCOIN: closed $9,145 -45. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.31 - .16 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
New Lands, or New Eyes? | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - April 2020
The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes. - Marcel Proust, Remembrance of Things Past This is my forty-first portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $697 582 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $40 709 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $76 583 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 563 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $174 864 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $31 505 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $215 805 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 625 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 323 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 904 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 458 Secured physical gold – $19 269 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $12 234 Bitcoin – $158 360 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 144 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 435 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 471 Total portfolio value: $1 694 834 (+$127 888 or 8.2%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under) Global shares – 21.7% Emerging markets shares – 2.2% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 26.9% (3.1% under) Total shares – 67.8% (7.2% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.5% International bonds – 9.9% Total bonds – 14.4% (0.6% under) Gold – 8.2% Bitcoin – 9.3% Gold and alternatives – 17.5% (7.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month featured a sharp recovery in the overall portfolio, reducing the size of the large losses experienced over the previous month. The portfolio increased by over $127 000, representing a growth of 8.2 per cent, which is the largest month-on-month growth on record. This now puts the portfolio value significantly above the levels of a year ago. [Chart] The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month. From a nadir of initial pessimism in late March, markets have generally moved upwards as debate continues about the path of a likely economic recession and recovery from Coronavirus impacts over the coming year. [Chart] First quarter distributions from the Australian and Global Shares ETFs (A200, VAS and VGS) were received this month. These were too early to fully reflect the sharp economic activity impacts of the Coronavirus and lockdown period on company earnings. Despite this, they were significantly down on a cents per unit basis on the equivalent distributions last year. Totalling around $2700, these distributions formed part of new contributions to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). The rapid falls in equity have many participants looking forward to a return to normalcy, or at least more open to the pleasing ideas that nerves have been held in a market fall comparable to 2000 or 2008-09, and that markets now represent clear value. As discussed last month, there should be caution and some humility about these questions, if some historical perspective is taken. As an example, the largest global equity market in the world - the United States - remains at valuation levels well above those experienced in previous market lows. Portfolio alternatives - tracking changes under the surface A striking feature of the past year or so has been the expansion of the non-traditional or 'alternatives' components of gold and Bitcoin as a proportion of the overall portfolio. Currently, when combined these alternative assets form a greater part of the portfolio than at any point over the past two years. The chart below shows that since January 2019 the gold and Bitcoin component of the portfolio has lifted from around its long term target level of 10 per cent, to now make up over 17 per cent of the portfolio. In the space of the last four months alone, it has lifted from 13 per cent. [Chart] With no purchases of either gold or Bitcoin over the period, the growth in the chart is the result of two reinforcing factors: A substantial fall in the value of the equity portfolio - reaching nearly $200 000 since the recent February market peak has naturally and mathematically led to a commensurate increase the proportion of other assets. Increases in the value of gold and Bitcoin - have also played a role with a total appreciation of around $150 000 across the two assets over the past 16 months. In fact, the value gold holdings alone have increased by over 40 per cent since January last year. Further appreciation of either gold or Bitcoin prices, particularly if any further falls in equity markets occur, could easily place the portfolio in the same position as experienced in January 2018. At that time these alternative assets made up 1 in every 5 dollars of the portfolio, an unusual, and in that case temporary phenomenon. This represents a different portfolio and risk exposure than that envisaged in my portfolio investment plan. Yet, equally it is critical to recall what the circumstances would likely be for this to arise. Simultaneously high gold and Bitcoin prices are more likely to occur in a situation of severe capital market dislocation, or falling confidence. On the other hand, should confidence and equity market growth be restored, both of these portfolio components could fall back to lower levels. It is difficult to tell which state of the world will eventuate, a key reason for diversification across asset types. United States government debt is already at record levels - equivalent in real terms to levels last seen when it emerged out of the Second World War - despite no similar national effort having being undertaken. Future inflation can potentially partly manage this burden, however, the last sustained episode of persistently high inflation rates during the decade of the 1970s spelt negative real returns. Where investors expect future inflation or financially 'repressive' policies of inflation exceeding interest rates, the economic growth required to 'grow out' of debt can be affected. At this point, my inclination is to address this circumstance gradually through time by re-balancing of distributions and new contributions, rather than to realise capital gains by selling assets at one, or several, points in time. Chasing down the lines - falling average spending in lockdown Since the implementation of lockdown restrictions, average credit card expenditure has fallen by nearly 30 per cent. This has taken credit card expenditure to lower than any similar period in the past six years. Partly as a result of this - as the chart below shows - a new development is occurring. The previously fairly steady card expenses line (red) is now starting to bend down towards, or 'chase', the rolling average distributions line (in blue). [Chart] The declining distributions line is a result of some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure. This intriguing picture will probably change before a cross-over occurs, as lockdown restrictions ease, and as the data feeding into the three year average slowly changes over time. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 77.7% 104.6% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 94.8% 127.6% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 76.0% 102.3% Summary Last month market volatility theoretically took progress down to below most of my financial independence benchmarks on an 'All Assets' (i.e. portfolio and superannuation assets) basis. This position has reversed this month. As markets have recovered and with additional spare time in the lockdown period, I have continued to seek out and think about different perspectives on the history and future of markets. Yet it must be recognised that there is a natural limit to the utility of these ponderings. The shape of the future is always uncertain, and in this world, confident comparisons and analogies with past events can be perilous. Comparisons with past periods of financial market crises miss the centrality of government action as a causal influence on the path of virus affected economies and markets. A virus and recovery is not the same as a global financial crisis originating in housing finance markets addressed through monetary and fiscal stimulus. Most developed country governments have quickly applied the same, if not larger versions of responses as applied in the global financial crisis, a distinguishing step that also makes analogies with the great depression era problematic. Similarly, a pandemic is not hitting and interacting with the shattered economic and health systems of the 1918-19 Spanish flu. Overlaying all of this is the imperfect and partially disconnected relationship between the economy today, and equity markets that discount and focus on the future. This makes all history's lessons more than usually caveated and conditional. One avenue for managing through these times is to focus on what does not change - the psychological difficulty of accepting alterations in financial circumstances and the capacity of markets movements to cruelly surprise us in both timing and direction. One of the best texts to read to get a sense of both of these in such times is Benjamin Roth's A Great Depression Diary. This tells of the day-by-day changes observed in everyday urban life and investment markets, from the point of view of an American small retail investor living through the times. This month also saw the exciting news that Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia are combining efforts to produce a new podcast. Speaking of which, Big ERN's reflections on the current implications of sharemarket market movements for seekers of financial independence have been filled with insight and wisdom. This interesting piece (video) - the latest in a 'virus' market series - from New York University's Professor of Finance Aswath Damodaran on asset performances through the past few months - is a more technical and detailed discussion of how markets have re-priced businesses and profits. Finally, the recently released Hmmminar interview series provides a more heterodox set of speakers and ideas on current markets, presented by Grant Williams. Unlike predicting the future, seeking out different perspectives on it is perhaps the easiest it has ever been in history. While it is not always possible to change the course taken, it is possible to look at the same horizon with new eyes. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
For Trading JULY 8th JOLTs 5.4 vs. 5 Million NVAX gets $1.6B from BARDA Today’s market got off to a very soft start in the DJIA but not so much in the NASDAQ and S&P-500, with the DJIA starting off -240 and managing a rally only as far as -125 before spending several hours going sideways until the last hour of trading when the NASDAQ and S&P ran out of steam and fell below the close and the selloff resumed. It’s never a good thing when and overbought index makes a new all-time high and then closes down and on the lows. The DJIA was -396.85 (1.51%), NASDAQ -89.76 (.86%), S&P 500 -34.30 (1.08%), the Russell -26.89 (1.86%) and the DJ Transports -108 (1.1%). The internals were 3:1 down on NYSE and 2.5:1 on NASDAQ with volume on the NYSE 2:1 down also. The DJIA was 28 down and only 2 up with WMT the big gainer +55 DP’s and on the downside, BA-62, GS -55, and UNH -43DP’s. Even with the good JOLTs number, this market is just over-extended and tired. The stat I mentioned in tonight’s video about the S&P is very telling, I think, with the S&P only 2% off its high, the median S&P stock is down 11%. This market has simply gotten too narrow and it will correct. We sold half of the remaining NEM 7/17 $60’s bought @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94, and today’s sale was @ $3.20. They closed today $3.20. We also own a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .75, and we also added a spread using the NEM 8/65 / 70 calls at a $1.30 debit. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/5afUNy48sFI SECTORS: The FAANG names all finished near the lows, several like MSFT coming off a new all-time high and closing down on the day. Not a good sign if they follow-thru to the downside tomorrow. Also having trouble was CCL, who has had to cancel several cruises for Q4 and Q1 2021. It closed $14.57 -1.04 (6.7%). Add to that, the UAL report that it is giving warnings that it will be laying off “10’2 of thousands of employees.” UAL finished $32.55 -2.66 (7.55%). These two companies do not operate in a vacuum, so both groups are in jeopardy, again. Novavax (NVAX) got a $1.6billion grant from BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) to help it along in it’s search for a workable vaccine. The stock, up from $8 as late as the end of February had worked its way up to $85 last month and opened today $104 and traded as high as $111.77 and finished $104.56 +25.12 (31.63%). Don’t get too crazy with this one, this is not its first rodeo. In 2015 it was trading $300 before it had a failure on a different vaccine and the stock fell to $80 before a rally and then in the week of 9/16/2016 it fell further from $169.80 to $23.20 and then on to the adjusted (1:20 reverse) low around $4.00. We’ll hope for a better outcome this time around. Walmart was the big winner on a RECODE that said they are ready to launch Walmart +, to compete with Amazon Prime for same day grocery delivery and next day for other products. Its move today added 55 DP’s to the averages. I don’t think it’s a big deal since for the same money, with Prime you get streaming too. And the margins on groceries are razor thin. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.67, BGS +.70, FLO -.03, CPB -.11, CAG +.54, MDLZ -.22, KHC +.22, CALM +.03, JJSF -1.43, SAFM +.54, HRL -.14, SJM +.18, PPC -.34, KR -.03, and PBJ $31.56 +.06 (.19%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB - -1.72, ABBV +.72, REGN +14.50, ISRG -9.30, GILD -.13, MYL -.43, TEVA -.29, VRTX +8.35, BHC -.59, INCY +.86, ICPT -.74, LABU +3.36, and IBB $140.15 +.71 (.51%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.13, CGC -.40, CRON -.19, GWPH +2.93, ACB +.17, CURLF -.07, KERN -.62 and MJ $13.08 -.01 (.08%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -8.59, GD -3.29, TXT -1.73, NOC -7.89, BWXT -1.78, TDY – 7.84, RTX -2.12 and ITA $160.32 -6.10 (3.67%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.03, JWN -.58, KSS -.72, DDS -.88, WMT +9.11 (7.66%), TGT -1.40, TJX -1.84, RL -2.49, UAA -.41, LULU -6.66, TPR -.51, CPRI -.18 and XRT $43.78 -.43 (.97%). FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -7.40, AMZN -44.69, AAPL +1.06, FB -.91, NFLX +.69, NVDA +3.06, TSLA +9.42, BABA -2.60, BIDU -4.54, CMG -10.92, CAT -2.03, BA -8.57, DIS -.53 and XLK $106.34 -.77 (.72%). FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS – 7.91, JPM2.52, BAC -.63, MS -1.32, C -1.53, PNC -3.15, AIG -1.36, TRV -2.45, AXP -3.48, V -3.13, and XLF $22.93 -.48 (2.05%). OIL, $40.62 -.01. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $36.26 -1.19 (3.18%). GOLD $1,809.80 +16.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high OF $1807.70 Last night I said “we’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains.” Unfortunately, we pulled back to 1,767 instead. We rallied a bit and finished only slightly better. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 and half of what was left today @ $3.20, we closed $3.20 + .80 today. BITCOIN: closed $9,290 -65. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.76 - .19 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JUNE 19th Init. Claims +1.508 Million Market recovers from -270 Leading Econ. Ind. +2.8 Today’s market was an ugly open -270 followed by a recovery, another dip to -180 and a rally back to DJIA -39.51 (.15%). With the exception of the DJ Transports -31.46 (.34%), the other indexes were all higher, with NASDAQ +35.52 (.33%), S&P 500 +1.85 (.06%), and the Russell +.54 (.04%). Market internals were pretty even with NYSE 4:3 lower and NASDAQ even @ 1:1. Volume was slightly lower and DJIA were 18 down and 12 up with no major movers to report. The news of the day was somewhat mixed with Initial unemployment claims adding 1.508 million down 58,000 but still higher than expected, continuing claims topping 20,544,000. The Philadelphia Fed report was 27.5 v. -20 expected, and the biggest winner was the Index of leading indicators showing its first gain since January +2.8 v. 2.5 expected. Unfortunately, last months numbers were revised down from -4.4 to – 6.1. With all these conflicting numbers, no surprise that the market couldn’t make up its mind. We went back into CVS 6/26 65 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.15 and they finished $1.02 - .50 and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 that finished the [email protected] $1.36. I am looking for a decline to add to that position. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/uszMmRey4FM SECTORS: Kroger (KR) reported earnings, and while they beat all expectations for both earnings and revenues, the stock actually sold off a bit, hitting $30.65 but came back to close $31.81 – 1.00 (3.05%). I would note that this stock has been a great performer and has moved steadily higher from it’s low in 8/2019 of $20.50, stopping at $36.84 before the market break in March and falling back to $27.33, grinding higher to make it back to its current level. Definitely one to watch for further gains. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) was up in afterhours on the news that it has renewed its plan to either sell or spin-off its Speedway stores. The stock, which had climbed back up from the March lows just over $15 to make it back to $44 had closed $38.47 +1.34, has continued higher to $40.79 + 2.12 (5.5%). Airlines and cruise lines were lower early and spent the day going back and forth before closing mid-range and slightly higher. The only exception was Carnival (CCL) which reported numbers and while down as far as $17.80 managed to make it back to close $18.82 -.27 (1.3%). And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY, was back to UONE. After its move from $1.54 to $40, back to $10.60 this morning, it rallied as high as $35.50 and finished $25.00 +12.99 (97%). All this in a week, and still no news releases except “trading halt for volatility, stock resumed.” FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN + .04, FLO -.08, CPB -.36, CAG -.06, MDLZ+.29, KHC +.38, CALM unchanged, JJSF -1.16, SAFM -.18, HRL +.14, SJM -.46, PPC -.04, KR -.84, and PBJ $31.11 -.10 (.31%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB (see above) -19.71 (7%), ABBV +.49, REGN -5.75, ISRG +7.05, GILD+.32, MYL +.53, TEVA +.14, VRTX -.79, BHC +.40, INCY +1.08, ICPT -1.13, LABU +1.60, and IBB $133.00 +.18 (.14%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.46, CGC +.38, CRON +.04, GWPH +5.48, ACB -.15, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.34, KERN -.81, and MJ $13.66 +.06 (.44%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -2.66, GD +2.71, TXT +.42, NOC -4.26, BWXT -1.32, TDY -4.60, RTX +.62, and ITA $172.83 -.20 (.12%). RETAIL was MIXED with M +.23, JWN -.38, KSS -.13, DDS +.03, WMT -.83, TGT -.52, TJX -.54, RL +.02, RL +.02, UAA +.01, LULU +.35, TPR -.24, CPRI -.02 and XRT $42.67 -.08 (.19%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL -16.54, AMZN +22.07, AAPL +.90, FB +1.12, NFLX +2.73, NVDA +.88, TSLA +17.21, BABA -.,55, BIDU +1.63, CMG +12.12, CAT +.27, DIS +1.20, and XLK $103.25 +.76 (.74%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS -1.19, JPM +.02, BAC +.19, MS -.01, C +.40, PNC +.20, AIG +.26, TRV +1.24, AXP -1.31, V +.94 and XLF $29.34 +.22 (.91%). OIL, $3738.79 +.86. Oil was under pressure early in the day but managed to rally and close near the highs. I mentioned in tonight’s video that it appears that prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $40.85 +1.16 (2.92%). GOLD $1731.10 -4.50. It was another day of a test of $1,750 followed by another test of $1,720 and a close in the middle of the range. The yellow metal is unchanged tonight. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, which closed $1.36. BITCOIN: closed $9,410 +85. After trading another short-range day, we finished mid-range and slightly higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.58 -.12 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Dash Competitive basket index for Saturday, 27 June, 2020. Good on the 7 day data, bad on the 24 hour data, and the CBI will be going on holiday for a week.
The Dash Competitive basket index will be taking a holiday for a week or so. I am also considering collecting data every day (as always) but only publishing a weekly report. Feel free to chime in with an opinion. I serve the Dash community. We dropped a rank. We did well on the 7 day data, and not so great on the 24 hour data.
Dash outperformed 15 of the 22 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (68% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 37%
Dash outperformed 5 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (50% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 34%.
In total, Dash outperformed 20 of the top 32 cryptos (63% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 36%.
Bitcoin dominance was unchanged at 63.7%.
23 of the top 32 cryptos beat Bitcoin (72%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 14 of the top 33 cryptos (42%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 6 of the top 33 (18%) cryptos were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 8 of the top 32 cryptos (25%).
LOEx Market Research Report on July 9: BTC is hovering at the 50-day moving average, which indicates that there will be a few days of fluctuations in the interval
[Today's Hot Tips] 1.[Onshore RMB breaks the 7.0 mark and the USDT premium rate narrows to -0.48%] The market shows that the onshore RMB regained the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time since mid-March. Onshore RMB is now reported at 6.9938, and USDT quotes 6.960RMB on the off-site Boboo.com. The premium rate narrows to -0.48%. 2.[Report: The number of USDT active addresses based on Ethereum reached a record high in June] According to U.Today on July 9, the latest report of blockchain research company CoinMetrics shows that the growth of Ethereum-based Tether (USDT) has stopped this month. The USDT-ERC20 token reached a historical peak of 140,000 active addresses in June. Currently, the number of active addresses has dropped to below 120,000. 3.[The US CFTC promises to develop an "overall framework" for digital assets by 2024] According to the news of Cointelegraph on July 9, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will make comprehensive cryptocurrency supervision a priority in its final strategy for the next four years released on July 8. Its strategic goal promises: "A overall framework will be developed to promote responsible digital asset innovation." [Today's market analysis] Bitcoin (BTC)After pulling up yesterday evening, BTC has continued to consolidate above 9400 USDT since early this morning. XRP led the rise in mainstream currencies. BTC is currently reported at 9377.1 USDT on LOEx Global, a drop of 0.37% in 24h. According to the CryptoCompare report, due to Bitcoin's range fluctuations, the volume of cryptocurrency derivatives transactions fell by 35.7% in June. However, the Bitcoin option trading volume of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose to its highest level in history in June. After staying at the 50-day simple moving average ($9,376) for the past two days, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above the resistance level, which is a positive sign because it indicates that demand is at a higher level. If the bulls are able to maintain the price above the 50-day moving average, they may rebound to $9,795.63 and then to $10,000. Currently, both moving averages are flat and the relative intensity index is just above 50, which indicates that there will be several days of fluctuations in this interval. If the bulls can push BTC/USDT to break the $10,000 to $10,500 resistance zone, this view will fail. But so far, this seems to be a difficult task. Operation suggestions: Support level: the first support level is 9200 points, the second support level is 9000 integers; Resistance level: the first resistance level is 9500 points, the second resistance level is 9700 points. LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 2 million community members in 24 hours. https://preview.redd.it/as8qe7jztr951.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=66d96b1609cfda78e53ab1e75a7750f50dea1808
Despite The Drop, The Derivatives Market Share Has Increased, Accounting For 37% Of The Entire Market In June The crypto market has been going sideways lately. There has been a lowered volatility levels, which forced market traders to hold their asset and expect certain price surges. In turn, this led to an increased consolidation of the crypto trading sector. Bitcoin, for example, remained under the $9,300 resistance line. BTC's strong influence on altcoins dictated the price changes across the sector, and very restricted movements have been observed throughout the last month. The sideways trend in June negatively affected spot trading volumes by a 49.3% drop to $642.6. The spot trading volume decrease also reflected on the derivatives market, as derivatives trading volumes dropped by 35.7 percent to $393 billion, which marks the lowest month for this year. Source: BitMex research Despite the recent volume drops, the derivatives market managed to gain five percent in total market share to 37% in June, as opposed to 32% in May. BitMEX recorded the largest trading volume drops, with little over 50%. Other crypto exchanges like OKEx, Binance, and Huobi also reported negative derivatives performance, showing decreases of 30.4%, 34,2%, and 38,3%, respectively. Source: BitMex research The CME exchange reported a 41% increase in options contracts, with a peak of 8,444 traded contracts. Despite the near all-time-high, CME still reported a 23% decrease in futures trading volumes, with a score of 128,258 in June. The derivatives trading volumes drop is primarily caused by low-tier and high-tier trading suspension, caused by the financial bloodbath from March and the recent COVID-19 virus outbreak. According to the app comparison website Alternative.ME and its “Crypto Fear and Greed index”, the overall sentiment in the crypto market is fearful, with a monthly fear index average of 40. The index suggests that the current cautious trend would continue in July, which may further impact the derivatives realm.
For Trading JUNE 19th Init. Claims +1.508 Million Market recovers from -270 Leading Econ. Ind. +2.8 Today’s market was an ugly open -270 followed by a recovery, another dip to -180 and a rally back to DJIA -39.51 (.15%). With the exception of the DJ Transports -31.46 (.34%), the other indexes were all higher, with NASDAQ +35.52 (.33%), S&P 500 +1.85 (.06%), and the Russell +.54 (.04%). Market internals were pretty even with NYSE 4:3 lower and NASDAQ even @ 1:1. Volume was slightly lower and DJIA were 18 down and 12 up with no major movers to report. The news of the day was somewhat mixed with Initial unemployment claims adding 1.508 million down 58,000 but still higher than expected, continuing claims topping 20,544,000. The Philadelphia Fed report was 27.5 v. -20 expected, and the biggest winner was the Index of leading indicators showing its first gain since January +2.8 v. 2.5 expected. Unfortunately, last months numbers were revised down from -4.4 to – 6.1. With all these conflicting numbers, no surprise that the market couldn’t make up its mind. We went back into CVS 6/26 65 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.15 and they finished $1.02 - .50 and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 that finished the [email protected] $1.36. I am looking for a decline to add to that position. Tonight’s closing comment on YouTube .. https://youtu.be/uszMmRey4FM Our Discord forum link is in the video description... SECTORS: Kroger (KR) reported earnings, and while they beat all expectations for both earnings and revenues, the stock actually sold off a bit, hitting $30.65 but came back to close $31.81 – 1.00 (3.05%). I would note that this stock has been a great performer and has moved steadily higher from it’s low in 8/2019 of $20.50, stopping at $36.84 before the market break in March and falling back to $27.33, grinding higher to make it back to its current level. Definitely one to watch for further gains. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) was up in afterhours on the news that it has renewed its plan to either sell or spin-off its Speedway stores. The stock, which had climbed back up from the March lows just over $15 to make it back to $44 had closed $38.47 +1.34, has continued higher to $40.79 + 2.12 (5.5%). Airlines and cruise lines were lower early and spent the day going back and forth before closing mid-range and slightly higher. The only exception was Carnival (CCL) which reported numbers and while down as far as $17.80 managed to make it back to close $18.82 -.27 (1.3%). And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY, was back to UONE. After its move from $1.54 to $40, back to $10.60 this morning, it rallied as high as $35.50 and finished $25.00 +12.99 (97%). All this in a week, and still no news releases except “trading halt for volatility, stock resumed.” FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN + .04, FLO -.08, CPB -.36, CAG -.06, MDLZ+.29, KHC +.38, CALM unchanged, JJSF -1.16, SAFM -.18, HRL +.14, SJM -.46, PPC -.04, KR -.84, and PBJ $31.11 -.10 (.31%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB (see above) -19.71 (7%), ABBV +.49, REGN -5.75, ISRG +7.05, GILD+.32, MYL +.53, TEVA +.14, VRTX -.79, BHC +.40, INCY +1.08, ICPT -1.13, LABU +1.60, and IBB $133.00 +.18 (.14%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.46, CGC +.38, CRON +.04, GWPH +5.48, ACB -.15, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.34, KERN -.81, and MJ $13.66 +.06 (.44%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -2.66, GD +2.71, TXT +.42, NOC -4.26, BWXT -1.32, TDY -4.60, RTX +.62, and ITA $172.83 -.20 (.12%). RETAIL was MIXED with M +.23, JWN -.38, KSS -.13, DDS +.03, WMT -.83, TGT -.52, TJX -.54, RL +.02, RL +.02, UAA +.01, LULU +.35, TPR -.24, CPRI -.02 and XRT $42.67 -.08 (.19%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL -16.54, AMZN +22.07, AAPL +.90, FB +1.12, NFLX +2.73, NVDA +.88, TSLA +17.21, BABA -.,55, BIDU +1.63, CMG +12.12, CAT +.27, DIS +1.20, and XLK $103.25 +.76 (.74%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS -1.19, JPM +.02, BAC +.19, MS -.01, C +.40, PNC +.20, AIG +.26, TRV +1.24, AXP -1.31, V +.94 and XLF $29.34 +.22 (.91%). OIL, $3738.79 +.86. Oil was under pressure early in the day but managed to rally and close near the highs. I mentioned in tonight’s video that it appears that prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $40.85 +1.16 (2.92%). GOLD $1731.10 -4.50. It was another day of a test of $1,750 followed by another test of $1,720 and a close in the middle of the range. The yellow metal is unchanged tonight. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, which closed $1.36. BITCOIN: closed $9,410 +85. After trading another short-range day, we finished mid-range and slightly higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.58 -.12 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
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﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
Murmurs of the Sea | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2020
Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world. -Albert Camus, The Plague This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254 Secured physical gold – $19 211 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106 Bitcoin – $115 330 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 303 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 49