Will Altcoins Undermine Bitcoin's Deflationary Characteristic?
When people talk of deflation and Bitcoin, they mean that you need to pay fewer and fewer bitcoins for the same things because the demand for bitcoin grows much quicker than the supply. We generally assume this will continue and when people talk of a price of $100k per bitcoin or similarly enormous sums, they implicitly assume that Bitcoin will be the only one. You arrive at these sums by taking all the use-cases, industries and functions that Bitcoin can do better than the current financial system, you calculate amount of money that will be needed as a consequence, take into account velocity, divide by the number of bitcoins and voila: We have a super-high price and we’re all rich:) But there is one thing that is generally ignored. The cryptocurrency infrastructure can handle any of the cryptocurrencies similarly well. For a provider like BitPay it would (presumably) be very easy to switch to Litecoin, Dogecoin and Whatevercoin with ease. Even more importantly, they could accept different cryptocurrency simultaneously. (As long as a liquid market exists for them.) In the future payment providers, wallets and other services will handle multiple currencies simultaneously. This could, for example, mean that you’ll need ‘a’ cryptocurrency to do remittances cheaply, but any number of them would do the job. It seems, this could destabilize the deflationary characteristic of Bitcoin. If cryptocurrencies can be substituted for each other, then we need to think of the money supply not in terms of Bitcoin but in terms of cryptocurrencies and obviously the supply is no longer limited. The key question this revolves around is how large are the network effects? How much more utility does one currency vs many currencies provide? Currently, you can’t do much with other cryptocurrencies so there are strong network effects. But if services make seamless, cheap and instantaneous exchange possible between currencies (and I think they will) these effects will decrease. Am I correct? I would love to hear some thoughts and scenarios about how this will play out. Note: - These concerns were mentioned by several people in the recent Goldman Sachs report on Bitcoin: http://www.scribd.com/doc/212058352/Bit-Coin. I highly recommend reading it. While it’s critical, it’s well-written and thoughtful. - We also discussed this question on our last podcast episode (Epicenter Bitcoin) with Sebastien Couture and Jonathan Levin of Coinometrics: https://soundcloud.com/epicenterbitcoin/eb-011 (The relevant discussion starts around 1h24m)
Goldman Sachs CFO Says Reports About Its Bitcoin Trading Platform Living in the crypto markets; 7 seem to be on the brink of something massive
How important is 100B Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:** June saw the continuation and acceleration of May's downturn. Link below shows stagnation in the market it would be on the most reliable & security-conscious exchanges. They seem equally frustrated by the lack of retail investors still in the majority, though.
@Benzinga: Your Friday morning Speed Read: - U.S. unemployment rate due at 8:30am ET - Goldman Sachs CFO calls report the firm scrapped #bitcoin trading desk plans "fake news" $GS $BTC - Pres. Trump may decide as early as today 2 impose another $200B in tariffs on Chinese imports $SPY $FXI
Bitcoin slips on report Goldman Sachs is halting plans to open cryptocurrenc... #ethereum #btc #altcoins… https://t.co/5ihb7UjvCz - Crypto Insider Info - Whales's
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@ReutersBiz: JUST IN: Bitcoin, Ethereum slip on report Goldman Sachs group is ditching plans to open a desk for trading cryptocurrencies in the foreseeable future; Bitcoin down 5.2 percent, Ethereum down 9.6 percent https://t.co/bmLEBkfgVS https://t.co/RmARFfbIIb
Bitcoin hitting $10 trillion market cap is “easily achievable”
Raoul Pal — chief executive of Real Vision and a former Goldman Sachs executive — recently sat down with one of Bitcoin’s earliest public bulls, Max Keiser, to talk about the outlook for cryptocurrencies. Responding to an inquiry from Keiser regarding Bitcoin’s potential to begin to rival gold, which has approximately a $9 trillion market capitalization. “If it becomes an ecosystem, and we believe it will be and it will take the whole ecosystem with it as well, then yes, I think a $10 trillion number is easily achievable within that process.” https://preview.redd.it/rge9cx3go5z41.png?width=824&format=png&auto=webp&s=17d5beef2015d7a67852ee4b3d036aa1371227e3 A $10 trillion market capitalization corresponds with more than $500,000 per coin.
The timelines are accelerating
While Pal held the belief that Bitcoin could skyrocket to trillions long before the COVID-19 outbreak, the ongoing macroeconomic conditions are increasing the chances crypto performs well, he has suggested. Per previous reports from CryptoSlate, he postulated in the April edition of his research newsletter “Global Macro Investor” that due to the economic and monetary fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak, there’s a genuine risk “of the failure of our very system of money” or at least a collapse of the “current financial architecture.” Pal has specifically cited a potential deflationary spiral caused by the lack of spending, which he believes will cause the value of the U.S. dollar to shoot up while individuals, corporations, and governments will have to default on their record levels of debt.
For Trading JULY 16th GS Earnings a Beat Prop-Trading Helps NASDAQ Still Weaker TWTR HACKED Today’s market got off to a decent start with the futures indicating a gain of about 500+, but it didn’t live up to its promise, falling back and reaching up “only” 428 and making that high by 9:45 and trading sideways to lower and making a low around 12:15 at + just 50 before turning back up to make a lower high +240 and selling off again, but making a late gain back to +310 before the last little selloff to close +227.51 (.85%), NASDAQ +61.91 (.59%), S&P 500 +29.04 (.91%), the Russell +50.05 (3.5%) and the big winner, DJ Transports +424.96 (4.56%). Market internals were strong with the NYSE A/D 5:1 and NAZ 4:1 with slightly higher volume than yesterday. The DJIA was 25:5 with the big gainer BA, +55 and UNH the big loser -31 DP’s. There was plenty of good news from the Beige Book gains, Industrial production +5.4% v 4.6 est., import / export gains and mortgage apps +5.1%. Tomorrow we have Initial and continuing claims, retail sales, Phili Fed, NAHB housing and business inventories. Plenty to obsess about! Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/hEiml2wDNeA SECTORS: Goldman Sachs (GS) reported great numbers, buoyed by proprietary trading and while the stock traded as high as $225.24, it couldn’t hold those gains and finished $216.90 +2.89 (1.35%). So, as I mentioned in tonight’s video (link above) the airlines and cruise lines were propelled higher by the news from Moderna (MRNA) that their vaccine produces twice the antigens as those from patients that have recovered from the illness. MRNA finished $80.22 +5.18 (6.9%) after trading as high as $88.37. The airlines were AAL+1.87 (16%), DAL +2.49 (9.5%), LUV +.60 (2.2%), while the cruise lines were CCL +2.44 (16.2%), RCL +10.21 (21%), and NCLH +3.17 (20.6%). If I had to pick one that I’d go with, it would be none of these. I think the play will be in EXPE $90.23 +7.76 (9.4%) since people will need to book regardless of what they want to do or where they want to go. The TWTR hack of several high profile users, Obama, Biden, Bill Gates, Kanye West and Elon Musk was a crypto scam announcing a giveaway that required the sender to deposit .1 BTC in order to receive .2 BTC back…yeah, right…I’m so sure Joe Biden wants to double my money! And, the HOMERUN of the day was the Australian Biotech, Genetic Tech (GENE), whose “Severity Risk Test” was updated on a webinar. The stock was as low as $1.41 earlier this year and closed on Tuesday @ $2.26 and opened the day today @ 2.75 and ran up to $10.30 before closing $5.67 +3.41 (150.89%). Clearly a homerun! FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +1.71, BGS -.27, FLO -.13, CPB -1.06, CAG -.37, MDLZ -.19, CALM -.14, JJSF +2.11, SAFM +1.77, HRL -.27, SJM -1.31 and PPC $16.53 +.30 (1.85%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.69, ABBV +1.60, REGN -8.49, ISRG +22.46, GILD -.44, MYL +.43, TEVA +.88, VRTX +1.28, BHC +1.25, INCY -.05, ICPT +1.93, LABU +4.17 and IBB $142.74 +2.48 (1.77%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.24, CGC +.81, CRON +.67, GWPH -3.99, ACB +1.11, CURLF +.10, KERN +.42, and MJ $13.64 +.38 (2.87%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +9.94, GD +2.64, TXT +1.05, NOC +5.21, BWXT +1.24, TDY +21.12, RTX +2.73 and ITA $165.19 +5.58 (3.5%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.39, JWN +1.12, KSS +1.88, DDS +1.73, WMT +.37, TGT +1.59, TJX +2.57, RL +4.23, UAA +.87, LULU +4.19, TPR +.95, CPRI +1.35 FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -5.74, AMZN -86.00, AAPL +.61, FB -.53, NFLX -.38, NVDA -8.78, TSLA -5.80, BIDU -.69, CMG +33.98, BABA +.25, CAT +2.62, BA +6.32, DIS +1.74, and XLK $107.64 +.58 (.54%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.54, JPM +.99, BAC +.52, MS +1.32, C +1.60, PNC +2.89, AIG +.76, TRV +.79, AXP +2.54, V +2.72 and XLF $24.15 +.47 (1.98%). OIL, $41.20 +.91. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and we finally did that today. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.38 +.79 (2.16%). GOLD $1,813.80 +.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.40 +.12. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.54 -05. BITCOIN: closed $9,190 -120. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.48 - .25 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
US Stocks, Oil, and Bitcoin Price Plunge, Hinting Second Wave of Coronavirus Cases
Stocks have seen their worst day in three months, as the market has been concerned about a possible second wave of coronavirus cases as lockdowns have been easing in certain states in the US. Along with the risk of a second wave of infections in a few of the US states, US President Donald Trump’s re-election prospects increased uncertainty in the market, according to Eli Lee, the head of investment strategy at the Bank of Singapore. With jobless claims reaching more than double their peak during the Great Recession, at 20.9 million, US stocks slid, and Bitcoin price also witnessed a slump in the last 24 hours. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 6.9%, the S&P 500 fell 5.9%, and the Nasdaq dropped 5.3% near the end of the day. This trend marked its first three-day losing streak since early March when the coronavirus pandemic became a threat to the US economy. The recent uptick of coronavirus-related hospitalizations became a catalyst for a grim outlook from the US central bank, according to Dan Deming, the managing director at KKM Financial. “The sense is maybe the market got ahead of itself, which makes sense given the fact that we’ve come so far so fast. The reality is this thing’s going to linger longer than probably the market had anticipated.” Oil futures also fell for the third consecutive day of trading due to concerns over global energy demand, which depended on the currencies of oil producers and countries that rely on exporting commodities. The oil benchmarks are also heading for their first weekly declines in seven weeks. Bitcoin struggled to reclaim its price at $10,000 as its price slid to $9,100 after fluctuating around the $9,500 mark for about a week. Bitcoin price takes a dip as institutional investors have been feeling uncertain about the market under the current crises. COVID-19 has highlighted vulnerabilities in the fiat world Bloomberg recently published a report on its crypto outlook in June 2020, suggesting that the COVID-19 pandemic has been pushing Bitcoin’s maturity, and Bitcoin is gaining the upper hand, against the stock market. Progressing towards the digital equivalent of gold, Bitcoin’s volatility is at its lowest-ever against crude oil, indicating that the cryptocurrency is joining the mainstream market. While the Fed is considering the launch of the digital dollar, Facebook’s Libra coin is getting a portion of the spotlight, in particular with the hiring spree of three C-level executives with strong compliance track records. Goldman Sachs’ prediction In Asia, the Chinese yuan is also heading for its biggest daily decline in two weeks, which is in line with Goldman Sachs analysts’ prediction. Goldman Sachs is expecting the Chinese yuan to fall to its lowest since 2008 in the coming months due to the existing US-China trade war, and now the US potential sanctions on China over its feud over Hong Kong. The yuan has been forecasted by Goldman Sachs to fall to 7.25 per dollar during the next three months before recovering to 7.15 per dollar over six months, then to 7 per dollar in the next year. As the firm sees the yuan falling to its 2008 low, the potential for Bitcoin to experience an explosive price rally has been raised. Bitcoin comes in for people who are looking to bypass China’s strict capital control over sending money offshore. China has previously banned Bitcoin trading as well as trading of other cryptocurrencies, although the development of blockchain has been widely praised in the country.
Bitcoin Blasted: Does Not Constitute a Viable Investment Rationale. According to the seemingly scathing report, Goldman Sachs says that crypto assets like Bitcoin do not generate cash flow like bonds or “earnings through exposure to global economic growth”. They also don’t provide consistent diversification benefits due to their wildly fluctuating correlations between other assets like Goldman Sachs just made new enemies in the world of cryptocurrency. On Wednesday, the bank released a report that outlined five reasons that crypto is not an asset class or a suitable investment Goldman Sachs has claimed that bitcoin is a bubble bigger than the dot-com era and the famous Dutch tulip mania. In a research letter to investors, the banking firm’s analysts warned about the Where it also today, is the focal point of a Goldman Sachs call to some of the world’s most important investors. Ten years ago, the world didn’t even know what it was . So while Goldman Sachs sought to discourage investors from buying into Bitcoin with all the recent hedge against inflation talk, in the end, they’ve only further cemented In early 2018 (peak mania), Goldman was said to have “caved” on bitcoin, putting out a nine-page report entitled “Bitcoin as Money”. Could bitcoin succeed as a form of money? Could bitcoin
Bitcoin has not just been an innovator, ushering in a wave of cryptocurrencies constructed on a decentralized peer-to-peer network, it's ended up being the de facto standard for cryptocurrencies ... The new "US Economic Outlook & Implications" slideshow from Goldman Sachs is shooting heavily against Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies in general. This will be the main topic of todays video besides ... Need to report the video? Sign in to report inappropriate content. ... Goldman Sachs Predicts Bitcoin Can Run Past $7,900 CNBC - Duration: 1:03. CNBC 2,556 views. 1:03. Goldman Sachs held a conference call for clients today on the "Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin" and turns out... Goldman Sachs ISN'T a fan of Bitcoin. Nope, not ... Bitcoin Setting Up Ethereum At Goldman Sachs Compound Investor Activity Chainlink FUD Let's talk about it! BITCOIN ETHEREUM COMPOUND CHAINLINK CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS We tell you more in ...