Bitcoin Price Prediction 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 - Long

How the Bitcoin price was changing

Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.

2009

The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system.

At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins.

The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.

2010

In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA.

As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things.

In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.

2011

BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars.

The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.

2012

In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognised by European regulators.

2013

February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC.

On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road.

Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition.

But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency.

2014

During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency.

Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.

2015

At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.

2016

In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.

2017

The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars.

How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:


However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.

2018

During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.

Nowadays

What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true.

There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:

As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂

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Hi guys

On May 20, 2020, the next, third, Bitcoin halving will take place. This means that the remuneration of miners for each mined block in the cryptocurrency network will decrease exactly two times, to 6.25 BTC. Initially, this indicator was 50 BTC, in November 2012 it fell for the first time to 25 BTC, and the cryptocurrency exchange rate grew 407 times a year after that: from $ 2.55 to $ 1037. Then the price of the first cryptocurrency fell for more than a year, dropping below $ 200 by January 2015.

The second halving in the history of Bitcoin occurred in July 2016. Then the asset was already on the rise, it grew in price for almost a year and a half and during this time it almost returned to the highs of that time, the coin was trading around $ 700. But just after the block reward was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC, a new crazy increase in the value of cryptocurrency began.

We all know its results - in mid-December 2017, the asset price reached an incredible $ 20,000, and by January 2018 the total market capitalization exceeded $ 830 billion. Almost a year later, Bitcoin set a minimum at $ 3200 and began to grow again: for over the past few months, it has risen in price almost 2.5 times, to $ 8,000.

Very reminiscent of the events of four years ago, is not it? After the first halving, Bitcoin went up 407 times, after the second - 28.5 times, one can only guess what the course of the first cryptocurrency will be in 2021.

A few months ago, the head of the BTCC exchange, Bobby Lee, predicted that the coin would rise to $ 333,000 in two and a half years. A similar opinion was expressed by an analyst at planB, who is confident that by that time the price of Bitcoin should be in the range from $ 34,000 to $ 340,000.
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Crypto market cycle update

Major Cycle Analysis
Note: Research data compiled from blockchain.info, coinmetrics and unchainedcapital
Throughout the recent consolidation period we have seen very minimal selling coming from long term holders (typically one of the most successful groups of investors to investigate). In-fact we have actually seen a rise in long term investors over this period.
The number of more recent holders is also growing. The number of 1+ year UTXO (unspent transaction outputs) is growing almost exactly in line with the previous cycle. In the last couple of months we have seen the growth slow implying that the “fast growth” phase may be near over in the short term.
Bitcoin is back in favour and finding itself at the top of the list for best performing assets so far this year. This is following the recovery of traditional risk assets such as U.S. and Chinese equities. The return of positive sentiment to risk assets appears to have helped Bitcoin. Slowing global growth could make Bitcoin seem increasingly enticing as portfolio managers are on the hunt for assets with substantially higher than average return possibilities.
UTXO Analysis of 1+ year holders
As of April 23rd, 61% of Bitcoin has not been moved in over 1 year. In November this number was down to 52% during the sell off. Then quickly recovered to 57% at the end of January and 60% in March. Now we can see the clear (slowdown which I mentioned earlier) as the 1+ year holder rate has grown only 1% in 6 weeks compared to 7% in 8 weeks around December.
This is normal, and expected.
If we look back at the previous market cycle we are at an almost identical point to what we were after the bottom in 2015. It took another 12 months for the 1+ year UTXO rise to it’s high in 2016. During this time we saw small price movements and a general lack of “excitement” in the markets compared to late 2016 and 2017. But there certainly was no shortage of gains...
This was also the BEST time for investors to be positioning themselves for the 2017 blow off bull run.
Where do the long term holders fit in?
One point to be particularly optimistic about is that the long term holders have remained unmoving during this most recent rally and have not been selling.
We are beginning to see gradual accumulation in the 3-5 year groups and the 5+ year groups adding to the consistent growth in the 1+ year group as those that purchased in late 2017 and early 2018 continue to hold. During the previous cycle we saw this same “hoarding” by long term investors AFTER the bottom was in. The 5 year + group is continuing to increase even while the lower brackets are remaining flat. This is because holders are moving along the chain and every day more investors have been holding for 5+ years. This means that it is difficult to see the growth in the shorter term bands (3-5 years etc) as new investors roll in and old investors roll out of that group at a steady rate creating no growth for the group overall.
If this pattern continues the 2-3 year group will start to trend up as we see those that bought during the flood in 2017 to be holding now for 2-3 years since their purchase.
Market Cycles
It is becoming easier every day for investors to hold onto their Bitcoin comfortably for a longer time horizon with the assumption that “generally” the price will increase over time.
It is becoming riskier for bears to sell in an attempt to buy lower because it is now not clear that Bitcoin will go lower. This is also trapping out a lot of recent sellers and forcing them to FOMO back in, creating new buyers and repeating the cycle.
This all combines to make an environment of scarcity compared to recent times which will only be compounded by the next halvening.
So, we know the supply side of the equation, and it’s looking good. What about the demand side?
I agree with a lot of speculators and researchers in saying that it is very hard to predict what the demand will be like for Bitcoin this time around. The demand side of the equation is the side most different from the previous cycle.
Bitcoin has now captivated a global audience, it has come out of the shadows. Everyone saw it rise, everyone saw it fall. What assumptions are people going to draw from that experience? I cannot say for certain. But when I talk to speculators from the 2017 bull run and rookie traders it appears to me that they are excited for “round 2”.
They believe they made mistakes but they appear optimistic about the future of Bitcoin and the potential to make money again at some stage in the future.
We only need a fraction of those same people to come back again, because when we combine those speculators with institutional investors (which we didn’t have in 2017) AND new speculators that heard about all their friends getting rich in 2017 but missed out themselves. I think we have a fair argument for a bullish side to the demand equation.
Sadly, not everyone is going to understand the true value proposition of Bitcoin (not many people did in 2017 either).
As alert and informed investors we will have the ability to compound gains that WE missed out on in 2017 and mistakes that WE made in 2017 to ensure that we make the most of the next bull run.
Our future is bright and there are extremely exciting times ahead.
Safe trading Reddit.
. . .
Taken from the Boss Crypto research channel at https://bosscrypto.co/
submitted by BawsCole to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer

By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast.
Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos.
I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back.
Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate!
Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous.
BACKGROUND
As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments.
I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC!
On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:

As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences.
With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell?
FUNDAMENTALS
Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel.
The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages.
SECURITY
The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed.
At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied).
This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m.
This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000.
Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day.
Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage.
When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin.
These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way.
With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!

SPECULATION
For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers.
Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good.
A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect.
Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand.
There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg)
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg)
And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage.
According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not.
For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin.
Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you.
In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away.
RETAIL
There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017.
Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin.
If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts.
What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available.
After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys.
To do so, I highly recommend Bitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware).
WALL STREET
There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017.
LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization.
The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures.
The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon.
By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable.
This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets.
THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION
The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg)
Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset?
BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE
At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit).
But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk.
Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B.
And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography!
This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen.
Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity.
To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png)
TRANSACTIONS
Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve.
On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017.
Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls?
As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again.
Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move.
There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png)
What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network.
The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee.
The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it.
I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA.
DEVELOPERS
Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want.
The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is.
However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses.
Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem.
Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg)
SETTLEMENT CURRENCY
There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet.
Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid.
PRICE
There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth.
Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand.
Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics!
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg)
On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030.
On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus."
On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000".
Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition.
I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC.
Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny.
Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State.
Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png)
Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market.
The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day.
So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png)
Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction.
We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose?
As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world.
CONCLUSION
Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017.
The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled.
The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon.
While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright.
Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do!
But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here.
Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts.
Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin.
Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go?
After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it!
What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
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How the Bitcoin price was changing

How the Bitcoin price was changing
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.

2009

The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system.
At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins.
The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.

2010

In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA.

As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things.

The two pizzas bought by Laszlo
In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.

2011

BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars.

The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.

2012

In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognized by European regulators.

2013

February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC.

On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road.

Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition.

But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency.

The Bitcoin price chart in November, 2013

2014

During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency.

Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.

2015

At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.

2016

In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.

2017

The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars.

How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:

  • In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;
  • China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;
  • In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;
  • The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.

However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.

2018

During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.

Nowadays

What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true.

There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:

  • Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;
  • Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;
  • and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.

As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂

Feel free to follow our updates and news on Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Telegram and BitcoinTalk. Read what the customers say about SimpleSwap on Trustpilot. Don’t hesitate to contact us with any questions you may have via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
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Bitcoin Halving: a Harbinger of a Bull Market or Coincidence?

Bitcoin Halving: a Harbinger of a Bull Market or Coincidence?
In this article, we will talk in detail about the Bitcoin halving, find out what it is, analyze how this event affected the market previously, study the theories of top traders and try to understand what to expect in the future. So, first things first.
https://preview.redd.it/58uagqpscqq31.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae0b5759cf7916fb3492685a78ca1d19d0a66a17

Inflation?

The mysterious Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto was a real genius, as he came up with a rather smart solution to maybe the most important problem of any currency - inflation. The current Bitcoin rate inflation is 4% per year, while the US dollar 1,91%, the Indian rupee 5,24%, the Russian ruble 4,33%, etc. However, Bitcoin inflation will continue to decrease until it reaches 0% in 2140.
To begin with, the Bitcoins issue is limited, in total, 21 million coins will be issued. As you know, Bitcoins are not issued by any single centralized authority - they are mined. And by analogy with precious metals, the mining complexity will constantly increase, while the reward for the work done will decrease. The whole thing is the correct implementation of source code, as well as the so-called halving, which means that the miners get half as many coins every four years. Thus, by rough estimates, the last Bitcoin will be mined in May 2140.

What is halving and how does it work?

To explain what halving is, let's first understand how Bitcoin works. So, this digital coin is based on blockchain technology, which is a decentralized data accounting book, exact copies of which are located on miner computers around the world.
As you know, each book consists of pages, in our case these are blocks. Each block has its own unique serial number. Miners solve complex mathematical equations to form a new block and receive a reward in the form of coins for the work done. The size of this reward is halved every 210 thousand blocks. Considering that about 144 blocks are mined per day, this event occurs approximately once every four years. This is what is called halving. The short Bitcoin history includes two halvings:
  1. 11/28/2012 the reward for the found block was reduced from 50 to 25 BTC.
  2. 07/09/2016 the award halved again from 25 to 12.5 coins.
The next halving should happen on May 23, 2020, then the reward will again decrease by half and amount to 6.25 BTC.

A brief analysis of the first halving

On the day when the first decrease in the reward for the found block happened, the BTC rate showed a slight movement - the price increased by only 1.7%. But if you look at the big picture, you can see that the asset began to grow several months before this event, and just continued to move up after halving. Thus, the BTC rate increased from 13 to 260 US dollars in just four months.
https://preview.redd.it/89x4xdmvcqq31.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=af38bb2957a876c9f447b411db7a7e09d5ea21bc
This was followed by a rollback in price up to $80, but later a real bull race started and lasted until December 2013. At that time, the asset grew to unimaginable values, its rate reached the level of 1150 US dollars. Well, and of course, after such an increase, a tight correction of the price and a protracted bear market followed.
Pay attention to the complexity of the Bitcoin network during this event. The chart below shows, that the hash rate began to increase rapidly a few months before the halving, and the growth did not stop after it.
https://preview.redd.it/ljb35j7xcqq31.png?width=1335&format=png&auto=webp&s=f61f7a35294d500163e495370c8ece9fd27d68f5

A brief analysis of the second halving

The second halving occurred in less than four years - on July 9, 2016. This time, the reward for miners fell to 12.5 BTC. It is important to note that the time between the first and second halvings was 1316 days or 3.6 years. Moreover, if to analyze the data, you can see that the market started an upward movement about 9 months before the event. During this period, the BTC rate rose by 112%, and after the Bitcoin halving, it continued to grow till December 2017 and stopped at around $20,000 per coin.
We can also see how the hash rate increased against the background of the second halving. The chart below shows that the complexity of the Bitcoin network throughout the bear market in 2014-2015 was about the same value, but this figure began to grow rapidly about six months before the halving.
https://preview.redd.it/wylqu1wycqq31.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=a84acd976f6ae945c390615797234e20473fecaf
Therefore, the miners' interest in Bitcoin has grown significantly a few months before the event. And just like the previous time, the hash rate of the network continued to grow after halving.

In the run-up to of the third halving

As we all remember, a rather encouraging 2018 followed the euphoria of 2017, and the rates of all coins fell down to 90% of their peak values. According to technical indicators and the general mood in the market, we can say that the bear flag lasted until April 2, 2019. On this day, the Bitcoin exchange rate rose from $4,100 to almost $5,000, then an upward movement began. Note that this happened 13 months before the upcoming halving.
Further, the BTC rate continued to grow rapidly and reached the level of $14,000 at the end of June, followed by a rollback and the price held at around $10,000 for a long time. But on September 24, 2019, there was a fairly powerful price drop, the rate fell by $1,500 in less than a day, and at the time of this writing, the market price of one BTC coin is $8,200.
Note that the resumption of BTC growth this year was again accompanied by a significant increase in the hash rate. The complexity of the network from April to September has more than doubled, and it continues to increase.
https://preview.redd.it/dnivyfm0dqq31.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=29c3ecbce63bfed760c0c98af0e2db5948a456d3

How will halving 2020 affect the price?

Many market participants are wondering how will the third halving affect the market situation? Unfortunately, we can’t know the future, we can only analyze the current situation, compare it with historical data and draw certain conclusions.
In this article, we take the theories of two famous traders - Bob Lucas and Sunny Decree. They both analyzed in detail previous halving and made their forecasts regarding the market reaction to the next halving.

Sunny Decree Theory

He believes that the expectation of a halving will lead to Bitcoin price rise, as it was in previous times. He uses the BLX index to confirm this theory - this is the most complete history of the BTC price on the Internet, this is data actually from its very foundation.
The first cycle until November 2012 (before the first halving) is not so important for us since at that time Bitcoin was still a fairly new concept. Almost no one knew about its existence, and there were not many exchanges where it could be traded. However, we can use the second cycle as a projection for the third, in which we are now. The key role in the formation of new cycles is not in the reduction of inflation itself (that is, the Bitcoin halving), but trading activity in anticipation of it.
https://preview.redd.it/4kczz6a2dqq31.png?width=1306&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0734155c3af4755935bcb052572585a124128f6
Each of these cycles can be divided into several phases:
  • The first phase, which is not highlighted in color, is the bull market when the price forms a parabolic upward movement and market participants are in euphoria
  • The second phase is highlighted in red - it is a bear market that afflicts traders and most investors.
  • The third phase is highlighted in orange - it is an accumulation that begins after reaching the bottom.
  • The fourth phase is marked in yellow - this is a parabolic movement after accumulation, which occurred throughout all three cycles.
  • The fifth phase is highlighted in gray - this is the continuation of accumulation until halving and a new bull rally.
It to look attentively at the current cycle (that is, the third) we can see:
  • the first phase is a bullish trend up to $20,000.
  • the second phase is a drop to $3200.
  • the third phase is flat, which did not differ in increased volatility, at that moment the whales accumulated coins.
  • the fourth phase - a sharp increase, up to $14,000.
  • the fifth phase - a new correction to $8,200 and the continued accumulation of assets.
This theory tells us about the continuation of accumulation until the next halving in May 2020, which should be followed by a new bullish trend.
Now let's move on to the price forecast. The difference between the high of the first and second cycle is about 3600%, between the second and third - 1600-1700%. That is, each time the profit as a percentage goes down, so the third cycle was approximately half weaker than the second. As a result, according to Sunny Decree's theory, projecting the estimated percentage of growth proportionally, we can expect that the next BTC high will be at around $185,000. Using the structure of the third cycle, we can suggest that the peak of the bull market will happen in the summer of 2021.

Bob Lucas theory

Next, let's look at the theory of professional trader Bob Lucas. He analyzes the so-called cycles. In his opinion, the last four-year cycle (which contained 52 weeks in the drop and 153 weeks in growth) came to its end, it took 205 weeks in total.
Bob Lucas believes that the price we saw on December 10, 2018, was the end of this cycle. It is important to understand that the video in which he tells this theory in detail appeared on his channel on April 2, 2019 - on the very day when the market began to grow, so six months later we can notice that he was right in many ways, but not in everything.
So, Bob Lucas says in his video that at the beginning of a new cycle we will see the incredible power that will rapidly push the price to new levels. Lucas noted that at the time of recording the video, a lot of people are beginning to actively buy BTC in hope on rapid growth.
He believed that in April the market was not yet at the stage of the final bull race. He said that there will be growing up to plus or minus $6,000 in the near future, followed by a tough correction that will unsettle many weak investors. In his opinion, during this correction, the price may even update the December bottom, and only after that, a new cycle will begin, which will last about 150 weeks in growth. As for the final price, he does not have a specific figure, but he believes that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will be more than 100 thousand US dollars.
He stated that a hard correction should happen around August 2019, but in fact, it did not happen. Even though he made a mistake with the time frame and the estimated rate of BTC, he predicted the vector of the development of the situation quite correctly. Recent events are an excellent confirmation of this when on September 24, 2019, the BTC rate fell by $1,500 in less than a day. It was the correction Bob Lucas spoke about, but it happened a month later than he expected. Yes, it`s not likely that the rate falls to $3,000, but in current conditions, it is quite realistic to imagine a BTC rate of $6,000. Indeed, many analysts and experts agree that the “bloody Tuesday”, September 24th was not the final fall, it caused the next phase of accumulation of assets, which will take some time.

Neironix research department opinion

Let's drop someone else’s opinion and do what professional investors usually do - just take the facts we have and analyze them with a cold head.
  1. If to take a look at the BTC chart for its entire history, you can see certain patterns that have been repeated in a cyclic form several times.
  2. These cycles are conditionally divided by halvings, according to the principle of one halving - one parabolic growth.
  3. Even after shocking price kickbacks, the BTC rate never again fell to the values ​​that were before the start of the parabolic growth.
  4. Each subsequent halving increases the cost of mining BTC, which plays an important role in increasing the value of the coin.
  5. Bitcoin Halving 2020 is a very hype event, so in any case, this will affect the price.
Can we predict the future based on this? Of course, we cannot know for sure what surprises the cryptocurrency market is preparing for us. But no doubt that the cryptocurrency market, moreover Bitcoin, has great prospects. Bitcoin should be considered only as a long-term asset, which has always shown huge returns for a long period of time.
But it is important to understand that this article is not a guide to action since the digital coin market is quite unpredictable and it is a rather difficult task to foretell any outcome in advance. Do not invest in cryptocurrencies more than you can afford to lose. If you spend more money than you can effort, then you will not be able to think rationally and survive often storms in this young market. Treat your investments with a cold mind, and then you will succeed.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has already survived two halvings during its short history, and in less than nine months, we will see another decrease in the reward for miners. If you carefully study the charts, you can see that the BTC rate always grows before the halving. And after it, the market goes into a phase of parabolic growth, it lasts about a year, and then comes the correction and a protracted bear market.
A similar scenario has already been repeated twice and many traders believe that we will see a similar picture in the future, since the next halving should take place in May 2020. We observed a significant increase in the hash rate, the number of wallets, transactions and an increase in the rate of the main cryptocurrency 13 months before this event.
Earlier that we carried a detailed analysis of the current state of the Litecoin cryptocurrency, and also analyzed its behavior against the background of the recent halving that took place on August 5, 2019. If you are interested in this topic, here is a link to our study.
submitted by neironixio to u/neironixio [link] [comments]

Trading Insights From Monetary Sector Analyst

Trading Insights From Monetary Sector Analyst
Dear InvestoAnalyst,
Thank you for taking the time to read this important wealth management notice in time.
This year Bitcoin made 10 years on January and Ethereum made 5 years on July 22, and they're likely to stay for decades ahead.
In 2017 John McAfee gained an amazing popularity among the crypto-trading community on twitter. Once per week he would tweet a "Coin of the week" message that would make skyrocket, most often double, the price of the coin the very same hour due to algorithms parsing the tweet for the coin name and buying. Here are some links to the hype created by this influencer yesterday: link1 link2 link3 link4 link5.
After the December 2017 peak, @ $20,000 for BTCUSD and @ $1,385 for ETHUSD, cryptos have been correcting througout 2018 reaching bottoms @ $3,300 (-70%) for BTSUSD and @ $82 for ETHUSD (-93%). These are just mild corrections if we take into account that both of these instruments started out @ less than $0.5. These price movements look volatile, and they are in appearance. To the experienced trader prices just work logarithmically. For example for ETHUSD ln(82)/ln(1385)=0.6 (~0.618) and so on. This price target analysis works also for extensions fairly accurate.
During the current year 2019 the price has recovered, more than quadrupling for both currencies, reaching $13000 for BTCUSD and $360 for ETHUSD. This was typically a mild rebound followed by a first wave that was finished by the end of June. July, August and September have been downward months (corrective wave 2).
Yesterday, as of September 30th BTCUSD and ETHUSD have just reached a low. Why? One week ago the two aforementioned instruments tumbled 20-25% and have remained at this low level for a week. This drop allowed them to break trimester lows triggering massive stop-loss selling orders from over-leveraged speculators, thus (1) providing cheap prices to smart money and (2) removing future selling pressure during the uptrend because everyone who wanted to sell probably sold on new lows. Apart from the internet hype of influencers promoting Bitcoin these are other premonitory news of the Great Monetary crash:
Bitcoin Price as of September 29th 2019, Prelude of the uptrend
  • The Fed has been forced to silently inject more than $100 Billion in the money market in order to keep the rate within the target range and provide short-term liquidity. This was not happening since January 2015, and since September 2017 the Fed was actually reducing its balance sheet.
  • The Lebanese Pound has been devaluated from LBP1500/$ to LBP1600/$. This is clearly the result of delaying a long going Ponzi scheme of even double digit interest rates when the country is not generating any profitable surplus. As soon as a crisis is triggered the richest 1% will withdraw their 10-15% of total deposits and international liquidity won't be as available as usually, hence I expect to see further devaluations.
  • The Reserve Bank of India has been forced to limit daily withdrawals of cash to 1,000 rupees and then to 10,000 for large bank PMC. This policy caused more than 5% of the deposits to be withdrawn at an alarming rate. We can fairly call this the first run-on-bank of the Tumbling 20's
Note that the Fed bypassing the need of a lender and pumping liquidity worked in 2008 because no other alternative money was available. Gold can be put forward, and indeed it nearly tripled between November 2008 and September 2011, though gold logistics can't compare to instantaneous electronic units of account. But this time is different as Bitcoin and Ethereum are key monetary alternatives with a more secure system and a transparent monetary policy.
In less than a year Occupy Wall Street and alike movements will take up and this time they'll be massively moving their funds from banks to cryptos that have been tested as alternative monetary system. Politics will change. John McAfee is running for President of the United States and even though he'll probably won't spend as much as Trump he'll be making noise. Crypto insiders are realizing how easy it is to defend a fair idea compared to how difficult is it to hide the banking scam, and the only refrain is people's comfort zone, as well as misdirected financial trust toward banks and bank-owned medias of communication.
Other intermarket and technical confirmations to previous statements are:
  • Gold breaking out 5-years resistance impulsively
  • Silver having drawn a perfect, technical analysis hand-book, compound fulcrum pattern.
  • S&P500 having drawn very brief wave A (from 2932 to 2304 ~20% decline) during the fall 2018, wave B is well underway and is expected to finish before February 2020, starting a long an prolonged decline towards under 50% from current levels.
Other fundamental and psychological confirmations to above statements are:
  • Bitcoin halvening that reminds people of the limited amount to 21 Million Bitcoins (more demand) and halves Bitcoin inflation (less supply)
  • Ethereum 2.0 Sharding (an Ethereum update to increase scalability) that will allow investors to stake money and earn nominal ~10% per year (real yield could be triple digits) compared to nominal 0-10% in banks that results in negative figures real yield.
  • Banking unit of account debasement to flood tumbling markets, liquidity trap.
I have written a whole website of the 2020 Crisis and how Bitcoin and Ethereum can relief the subsequent Tumbling 20's economic slump. Though it does not include most up-to-date sentiment analysis presented in this letter, reading my website will put you in track to understand most news regarding these subjects, in particular the spirit with which they were written.
Feel free to get in touch.
All the best,
Cyril Attie Contact at tumbling20s.com 
submitted by tumbling20s_root to tumbling20s [link] [comments]

How the Bitcoin price was changing

How the Bitcoin price was changing
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.

2009

The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system.

At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins.

The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.

2010

In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA.

As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things.

The two pizzas bought by Laszlo
In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.

2011

BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars.

The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.

2012

In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognized by European regulators.

2013

February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC.
On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road.
Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition.
But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency.

The Bitcoin price chart in November, 2013

2014

During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency.

Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.

2015

At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.

2016

In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.

2017

The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars.

How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:
  • In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;
  • China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;
  • In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;
  • The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.

However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.

2018

During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.

Nowadays

What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true.

There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:
  • Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;
  • Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;
  • and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.

As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂

Feel free to follow our updates and news on Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Telegram and BitcoinTalk.Read what the customers say about SimpleSwap on Trustpilot.Don’t hesitate to contact us with any questions you may have via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
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Georgia Tombstones (Part 2)

Georgia Tombstones (Part 2)
by Jayge 8^J
"Project Blue Beam is a conspiracy theory that claims that NASA is attempting to implement a New Age religion with the Antichrist at its head and start a New World Order, via a technologically-simulated Second Coming. The allegations were presented in 1994 by Quebecois journalist and conspiracy theorist Serge Monast, and later published in his book Project Blue Beam (NASA). Proponents of the theory allege that Monast and another unnamed journalist, who both died of heart attacks in 1996, were in fact assassinated, and that the Canadian government kidnapped Monast's daughter in an effort to dissuade him from investigating Project Blue Beam. The project was apparently supposed to be implemented in 1983, but it didn't happen. It was then set for implementation in 1995 and then 1996. Monast thought Project Blue Beam would be brought to fruition by the year 2000, really, definitely, for sure. The theory is widely popular (for a conspiracy theory) on the Internet, with many web pages dedicated to the subject, and countless YouTube videos explaining it. The actual source material, however, is very thin indeed. Monast lectured on the theory in the mid-1990s (a transcript of one such lecture is widely available), before writing and publishing his book, which has not been reissued by his current publisher and is all but unobtainable. The currently available pages and videos all appear to trace back to four documents: A transcript of the 1994 lecture by Monast, translated into English. A GeoCities page written by David Openheimer and which appears to draw on the original book. A page on educate-yourself.org, compiled in 2005, which appears to include a translation of the book from the French. Monast's page in French Wikipedia. The French Wikipedia article is largely sourced from two books on conspiracy theories and extremism by Pierre-André Taguieff, a mainstream academic expert on racist and extremist groups. From these few texts have come a flood of green ink, in text and video form, in several languages. Even the French language material typically does not cite the original book but the English language pages on educate-yourself.org. However, conspiracy theorists seem to use quantity as a measure of substance (much as alternative medicine uses appeal to tradition) and never mind the extremely few sources it all traces back to. Proponents of the theory have extrapolated it to embrace HAARP, 9/11, the Norwegian Spiral, chemtrails, FEMA concentration camps and Tupac Shakur. Everything is part of Project Blue Beam. It's well on its way to becoming the Unified Conspiracy Theory. Behold A Pale Horse, William Cooper's 1991 green ink magnum opus, has lately been considered a prior claim of, hence supporting evidence for, Blue Beam by advocates. The book is where a vast quantity of now-common conspiracy memes actually came from, so retrospectively claiming it as prior evidence is somewhere between cherrypicking and the Texas sharpshooter fallacy. However, the following quotes, from pages 180-181, intersect slightly with the specific themes of Blue Beam: It is true that without the population or the bomb problem the elect would use some other excuse to bring about the New World Order. They have plans to bring about things like earthquakes, war, the Messiah, an extra-terrestrial landing, and economic collapse. They might bring about all of these things just to make damn sure that it does work. They will do whatever is necessary to succeed. The Illuminati has all the bases covered and you are going to have to be on your toes to make it through the coming years. Can you imagine what will happen if Los Angeles is hit with a 9.0 quake, New York City is destroyed by a terrorist-planted atomic bomb, World War III breaks out in the Middle East, the banks and the stock markets collapse, Extraterrestrials land on the White House lawn, food disappears from the markets, some people disappear, the Messiah presents himself to the world, and all in a very short period of time? Can you imagine? The world power structure can, and will if necessary, make some or all of those things happen to bring about the New World Order. “Without a universal belief in the new age religion, the success of the new world order will be impossible!” The alleged purpose of Project Blue Beam is to bring about a global New Age religion, which is seen as a core requirement for the New World Order's dictatorship to be realised. There's nothing new in thinking of religion as a form of control, but the existence of multiple religions, spin-off cults, competing sects and atheists suggest that controlling the population entirely through a single religion isn't particularly easy. Past attempts have required mechanisms of totalitarianism such as the Inquisition. Monast's theory, however, suggests using sufficiently advanced technology to trick people into believing. Of course, the plan would have to assume that people could never fathom the trick at all — something contested by anyone sane enough not to swallow this particular conspiracy. The primary claimed perpetrator of Project Blue Beam is NASA, presented as a large and mostly faceless organization that can readily absorb such frankly odd accusations, aided by the United Nations, another old-time boogeyman of conspiracy theorists. According to Monast, the project has four steps: Step One requires the breakdown of all archaeological knowledge. This will apparently be accomplished by faking earthquakes at precise locations around the planet. Fake "new discoveries" at these locations "will finally explain to all people the error of all fundamental religious doctrines", specifically Christian and Muslim doctrines. This makes some degree of sense — if you want to usurp a current way of thinking you need to completely destroy it before putting forward your own. However, religious belief is notoriously resilient to things like facts. The Shroud of Turin is a famous example that is still believed by many to be a genuine shroud of Jesus as opposed to the medieval forgery that it has been conclusively shown to be. Prayer studies, too, show how difficult it is to shift religious conviction with mere observational fact — indeed, many theologians avoid making falsifiable claims or place belief somewhere specifically beyond observation to aid this. So what finds could possibly fundamentally destroy both Christianity and Islam, almost overnight, and universally all over the globe? Probably nothing. Yet, this is only step one of an increasingly ludicrous set of events that Project Blue Beam predicts will occur. Step Two involves a gigantic "space show" wherein three-dimensional holographic laser projections will be beamed all over the planet — and this is where Blue Beam really takes off. The projections will take the shape of whatever deity is most predominant, and will speak in all languages. At the end of this light show, the gods will all merge into one god, the Antichrist. This is a rather baffling plan as it seems to assume people will think this is actually their god, rather than the more natural twenty-first century assumption that it is a particularly opaque Coca Cola advertisement. Evidence commonly advanced for this is a supposed plan to project the face of Allah, despite its contradiction with Muslim belief of God's uniqueness, over Baghdad in 1991 to tell the Iraqis to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Someone, somewhere, must have thought those primitive, ignorant non-Western savages wouldn't have had television or advertising, and would never guess it was being done with mirrors. In general, pretty much anything that either a) involves light or b) has been seen in the sky has been put forward as evidence that Project Blue Beam is real, and such things are "tests" of the technology — namely unidentified flying objects. Existing display technology such as 3D projection mapping and holograms are put forward as foreshadowing the great light show in the sky. This stage will apparently be accomplished with the aid of a Soviet computer that will be fed "with the minute physio-psychological particulars based on their studies of the anatomy and electro-mechanical composition of the human body, and the studies of the electrical, chemical and biological properties of the human brain", and every human has been allocated a unique radio wavelength. The computers are also capable of inducing suicidal thoughts. The Soviets are (not "were") the "New World Order" people. Why NASA would use a Soviet computer when the USSR had to import or copy much of its computer technology from the West is not detailed. The second part of Step Two happens when the holograms result in the dissolution of social and religious order, "setting loose millions of programmed religious fanatics through demonic possession on a scale never witnessed before." The United Nations plans to use Beethoven's "Ode to Joy" as the anthem for the introduction of the new age one world religion. There is relatively little to debunk in this, the most widely remembered section of the Project Blue Beam conspiracy, as the idea is so infeasible. Citing actual existing communication technology is odd if the point is for the end product to appear magical, rather than just as cheap laser projections onto clouds. This hasn't stopped some very strange conspiracy theories about such things popping up. Indeed, the notion of gods being projected into the sky was floated in 1991 by conspiracy theorist Betty J. Mills. And US general (and CIA shyster extraordinaire), Edward Lansdale, actually floated a plan to fake a Second Coming over Cuba to get rid of Castro. Step Three is "Telepathic Electronic Two-Way Communication." It involves making people think their god is speaking to them through telepathy, projected into the head of each person individually using extreme low frequency radio waves. (Atheists will presumably hear an absence of Richard Dawkins.) The book goes to some lengths to describe how this would be feasible, including a claim that ELF thought projection caused the depressive illness of Michael Dukakis' wife Kitty. Step Four has three parts: Making humanity think an alien invasion is about to occur at every major city; Making the Christians think the Rapture is about to happen; A mixture of electronic and supernatural forces, allowing the supernatural forces to travel through fiber optics, coax, power and telephone lines to penetrate all electronic equipment and appliances, that will by then all have a special microchip installed. Then chaos will break out, and people will finally be willing — perhaps even desperate — to accept the New World Order. "The techniques used in the fourth step is exactly the same used in the past in the USSR to force the people to accept Communism." A device has apparently already been perfected that will lift enormous numbers of people, as in a Rapture. UFO abductions are tests of this device. Project Blue Beam proponents believe psychological preparations have already been made, Monast having claimed that 2001: A Space Odyssey, Star Wars and the Star Trek series all involve an invasion from space and all nations coming together (the first two don't, the third is peaceful contact) and that Jurassic Park propagandises evolution in order to make people think God's words are lies. The book detailed the theory. In the 1994 lecture, Monast detailed what would happen afterwards. All people will be required to take an oath to Lucifer with a ritual initiation to enter the New World Order. Resisters will be categorised as follows: Christian children will be kept for human sacrifice or sexual slaves. Prisoners to be used in medical experiments. Prisoners to be used as living organ banks. Healthy workers in slave labour camps. Uncertain prisoners in the international re-education center, thence to repent on television and learn to glorify the New World Order. The international execution centre. An as yet unknown seventh classification. Joel Engel's book Gene Roddenberry: The Myth and the Man Behind Star Trek was released in 1994, shortly before Monast's lecture on Project Blue Beam: “In May 1975, Gene Roddenberry accepted an offer from Paramount to develop Star Trek into a feature film, and moved back into his old office on the Paramount lot. His proposed story told of a flying saucer, hovering above Earth, that was programmed to send down people who looked like prophets, including Jesus Christ.” All the steps of the conspiracy theory were in the unmade mid-'70s Star Trek film script by Roddenberry, which were recycled for the Star Trek: The Next Generation episode Devil's Due, broadcast in 1991. There is no evidence of deliberate fraud on Monast's part; given his head was quite thoroughly full of squirrels and confetti by this time, it's entirely plausible that he thought this was the revelation of secret information in a guise safe for propagation. However, the actual source was so obvious that even other conspiracy theorists noticed. They confidently state it was obvious that Monast had been fed deceptive information by the CIA. Of course!" -- rationalwiki.org "Serge Monast was a Québécois investigative journalist, poet, essayist and conspiracy theorist. He is known to English-speaking readers mainly for Project Blue Beam and associated conspiracy tropes. His works on Masonic conspiracy theories and the New World Order also remain popular with French-speaking conspiracy theorists and enthusiasts." -- Wikipedia
"A human microchip implant is typically an identifying integrated circuit device or RFID transponder encased in silicate glass and implanted in the body of a human being. This type of subdermal implant usually contains a unique ID number that can be linked to information contained in an external database, such as personal identification, law enforcement, medical history, medications, allergies, and contact information. The first experiments with an RFID implant were carried out in 1998 by the British scientist Kevin Warwick. His implant was used to open doors, switch on lights, and cause verbal output within a building. After nine days the implant was removed and has since been held in the Science Museum (London). On 16 March 2009 British scientist Mark Gasson had an advanced glass capsule RFID device surgically implanted into his left hand. In April 2010 Gasson's team demonstrated how a computer virus could wirelessly infect his implant and then be transmitted on to other systems. Gasson reasoned that with implanted technology the separation between man and machine can become theoretical because the technology can be perceived by the human as being a part of their body. Because of this development in our understanding of what constitutes our body and its boundaries he became credited as being the first human infected by a computer virus. He has no plans to remove his implant. Several hobbyists have placed RFID microchip implants into their hands or had them inserted by others. Amal Graafstra, author of the book RFID Toys, asked doctors to place implants in his hands in March 2005. A cosmetic surgeon used a scalpel to place a microchip in his left hand, and his family doctor injected a chip into his right hand using a veterinary Avid injector kit. Graafstra uses the implants to access his home, open car doors, and to log on to his computer. With public interest growing, in 2013 he launched biohacking company Dangerous Things and crowdfunded the world's first implantable NFC transponder in 2014. He has also spoken at various events and promotional gigs including TEDx, and built a smartgun that only fires after reading his implant. Alejandro Hernandez CEO of Futura is known to be the first in Central America to have Dangerous Things' transponder installed in his left hand by Federico Cortes in November 2017. Mikey Sklar had a chip implanted into his left hand and filmed the procedure. Jonathan Oxer self-implanted an RFID chip in his arm using a veterinary implantation tool. Martijn Wismeijer, Dutch marketing manager for Bitcoin ATM manufacturer General Bytes, placed RFID chips in both of his hands to store his Bitcoin private keys and business card. Patric Lanhed sent a “bio-payment” of one euro worth of Bitcoin using a chip embedded in his hand. Marcel Varallo had an NXP chip coated in Bioglass 8625 inserted into his hand between his forefinger and thumb allowing him to open secure elevators and doors at work, print from secure printers, unlock his mobile phone and home, and store his digital business card for transfer to mobile phones enabled for NFC. Biohacker Hannes Sjöblad has been experimenting with NFC (Near Field Communication) chip implants since 2015. During his talk at Echappée Voléé 2016 in Paris, Sjöblad disclosed that he has also implanted himself between his forefinger and thumb and uses it to unlock doors, make payments, and unlock his phone (essentially replacing anything you can put in your pockets). Additionally, Sjöblad has hosted several "implant parties," where interested individuals can also be implanted with the chip. Researchers have examined microchip implants in humans in the medical field and they indicate that there are potential benefits and risks to incorporating the device in the medical field. For example, it could be beneficial for noncompliant patients but still poses great risks for potential misuse of the device. Destron Fearing, a subsidiary of Digital Angel, initially developed the technology for the VeriChip. In 2004, the VeriChip implanted device and reader were classified as Class II: General controls with special controls by the FDA; that year the FDA also published a draft guidance describing the special controls required to market such devices. About the size of a grain of rice, the device was typically implanted between the shoulder and elbow area of an individual’s right arm. Once scanned at the proper frequency, the chip responded with a unique 16-digit number which could be then linked with information about the user held on a database for identity verification, medical records access and other uses. The insertion procedure was performed under local anesthetic in a physician's office. Privacy advocates raised concerns regarding potential abuse of the chip, with some warning that adoption by governments as a compulsory identification program could lead to erosion of civil liberties, as well as identity theft if the device should be hacked. Another ethical dilemma posed by the technology, is that people with dementia could possibly benefit the most from an implanted device that contained their medical records, but issues of informed consent are the most difficult in precisely such people. In June 2007, the American Medical Association declared that "implantable radio frequency identification (RFID) devices may help to identify patients, thereby improving the safety and efficiency of patient care, and may be used to enable secure access to patient clinical information", but in the same year, news reports linking similar devices to cancer caused in laboratory animals had a devastating impact on the company's stock price and sales. In 2010, the company, by then called "PositiveID", withdrew the product from the market due to poor sales. In January 2012, PositiveID sold the chip assets to a company called VeriTeQ that was owned by Scott Silverman, the former CEO of Positive ID. In 2016, JAMM Technologies acquired the chip assets from VeriTeQ; JAMM's business plan was to partner with companies selling implanted medical devices and use the RFID tags to monitor and identify the devices. JAMM Technologies is co-located in the same Plymouth, Minnesota building as Geissler Corporation with Randolph K. Geissler and Donald R. Brattain listed as its principals. The website also claims that Geissler was CEO of PositiveID Corporation, Destron Fearing Corporation, and Digital Angel Corporation. In 2018, A Danish firm called BiChip released a new generation of microchip implant that is intended to be readable from distance and connected to Internet. The company released an update for its microchip implant to associate it with the Ripple cryptocurrency to allow payments to be made using the implanted microchip. In February 2006, CityWatcher, Inc. of Cincinnati, OH became the first company in the world to implant microchips into their employees as part of their building access control and security system. The workers needed the implants to access the company's secure video tape room, as documented in USA Today. The project was initiated and implemented by Six Sigma Security, Inc. The VeriChip Corporation had originally marketed the implant as a way to restrict access to secure facilities such as power plants. A major drawback for such systems is the relative ease with which the 16-digit ID number contained in a chip implant can be obtained and cloned using a hand-held device, a problem that has been demonstrated publicly by security researcher Jonathan Westhues and documented in the May 2006 issue of Wired magazine, among other places. The Baja Beach Club, a nightclub in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, once used VeriChip implants for identifying VIP guests. The Epicenter in Stockholm, Sweden is using RFID implants for employees to operate security doors, copiers, and pay for lunch. In 2017 Mike Miller, chief executive of the World Olympians Association, was widely reported as suggesting the use of such implants in athletes in an attempt to reduce problems in sport due to drug taking. Theoretically, a GPS-enabled chip could one day make it possible for individuals to be physically located by latitude, longitude, altitude, speed, and direction of movement. Such implantable GPS devices are not technically feasible at this time. However, if widely deployed at some future point, implantable GPS devices could conceivably allow authorities to locate missing persons and/or fugitives and those who fled from a crime scene. Critics contend, however, that the technology could lead to political repression as governments could use implants to track and persecute human rights activists, labor activists, civil dissidents, and political opponents; criminals and domestic abusers could use them to stalk and harass their victims; and child abusers could use them to locate and abduct children. Another suggested application for a tracking implant, discussed in 2008 by the legislature of Indonesia's Irian Jaya would be to monitor the activities of persons infected with HIV, aimed at reducing their chances of infecting other people. The microchipping section was not, however, included into the final version of the provincial HIV/AIDS Handling bylaw passed by the legislature in December 2008. With current technology, this would not be workable anyway, since there is no implantable device on the market with GPS tracking capability. Since modern payment methods rely upon RFID/NFC, it is thought that implantable microchips, if they were to ever become popular in use, would form a part of the cashless society. Verichip implants have already been used in nightclubs such as the Baja club for such a purpose, allowing patrons to purchase drinks with their implantable microchip. In a self-published report anti-RFID advocate Katherine Albrecht, who refers to RFID devices as "spy chips", cites veterinary and toxicological studies carried out from 1996 to 2006 which found lab rodents injected with microchips as an incidental part of unrelated experiments and dogs implanted with identification microchips sometimes developed cancerous tumors at the injection site (subcutaneous sarcomas) as evidence of a human implantation risk. However, the link between foreign-body tumorigenesis in lab animals and implantation in humans has been publicly refuted as erroneous and misleading and the report's author has been criticized over the use of "provocative" language "not based in scientific fact". Notably, none of the studies cited specifically set out to investigate the cancer risk of implanted microchips and so none of the studies had a control group of animals that did not get implanted. While the issue is considered worthy of further investigation, one of the studies cited cautioned "Blind leaps from the detection of tumors to the prediction of human health risk should be avoided". The Council on Ethical and Judicial Affairs (CEJA) of the American Medical Association published a report in 2007 alleging that RFID implanted chips may compromise privacy because there is no assurance that the information contained in the chip can be properly protected. Following Wisconsin and North Dakota, California issued Senate Bill 362 in 2007, which makes it illegal to force a person to have a microchip implanted, and provide for an assessment of civil penalties against violators of the bill. In 2008, Oklahoma passed 63 OK Stat § 63-1-1430 (2008 S.B. 47), that bans involuntary microchip implants in humans. On April 5, 2010, the Georgia Senate passed Senate Bill 235 that prohibits forced microchip implants in humans and that would make it a misdemeanor for anyone to require them, including employers. The bill would allow voluntary microchip implants, as long as they are performed by a physician and regulated by the Georgia Composite Medical Board. The state's House of Representatives did not take up the measure. On February 10, 2010, Virginia's House of Delegates also passed a bill that forbids companies from forcing their employees to be implanted with tracking devices. Washington State House Bill 1142-2009-10 orders a study using implanted radio frequency identification or other similar technology to electronically monitor sex offenders and other felons. The general public are most familiar with microchips in the context of tracking their pets. In the U.S., some Christian activists, including conspiracy theorist Mark Dice, the author of a book titled The Resistance Manifesto, make a link between the PositiveID and the Biblical Mark of the Beast, prophesied to be a future requirement for buying and selling, and a key element of the Book of Revelation. Gary Wohlscheid, president of These Last Days Ministries, has argued that "Out of all the technologies with potential to be the mark of the beast, VeriChip has got the best possibility right now"." -- Wikipedia
"In this latest book Joseph P Farrell examines the subject of mind control, but from a very unusual perspective, showing that its basic underlying philosophy, and goal, is not only cosmological in nature, but that the cosmology in view is very ancient, and that mind control of any sort, from the arts to hypnosis, remote electromagnetic technologies and “electroencephalographic dictionaries” has cosmological implications." -- Microcosm and Medium: The Cosmic Implications and Agenda of Mind Control Technologies publisher's description
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Can Litecoin Halving Really Double Your Investment?

Can Litecoin Halving Really Double Your Investment?


Two big halvings in less than a year.
The next Bitcoin halving is less than a year away, and Litecoin’s block rewards are expected to fall within two months. These events are likely to restrict the supply of both cryptocurrencies, leading some speculators to count on the reduced supply for another bull run. In fact, given the recent run-up in price to a 12-month high of $128 at the time of writing, Litecoin halving fever already seems to have struck the market.
But, as we’ll see, those returns may not be as inevitable as some traders think.
Why Do Mining Rewards Fall?
The rate that new coins are created is cut in half every four years, effectively reducing inflation rates and cutting supply in the digital currency. Bitcoin’s current inflation rate is just over 4%, and will become 1.8% after the halving. In comparison, the U.S. Federal Reserve targets a 2% inflation rate each year.
Bitcoin inflation rate versus price over time. Via CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin has followed the same emission schedule since the genesis block, except for one slip-up: an inflation bug (CVE-2010-5139) created 184 billion bitcoins on August 15, 2010 at block height 74638.
Bitcoin supply curve. Source: messario.io
What will happen to the price of Bitcoin?
It’s risky to use previous halvings to draw a conclusion for the future, because it’s such a small sample size. However, we do know that inflation (and therefore supply) will decrease. ECON101 tells us that a supply decrease coupled with stagnant demand leads to a price increase, and we’ve predicted positive results for the halving before.
On the day of the first halving, November 28, 2012, the price of BTC was $12.35, and reached $127 just 150 days later. One year after the halving it was $205. 150 days prior to the halving the price was $5.24.
Bitcoin at the first halving. Via BuyBitcoinWorldwide.
So, the first halving was clearly a good time to buy BTC. If you had bought five months before the halving and sold it one year afterwards, your investment would have returned forty-fold returns.
The second halving was less dramatic, but still profitable. On July 9th, the day of the 2016 halving, the price of BTC was $650.63 and reached $758.81 just 150 days later. One year after the halving it was $2350. 150 days prior to the halving the price was $405. So, during that halving there was nearly a sixfold investment opportunity.
Bitcoin at the second halving. Via BuyBitcoinWorldwide.
Again, the sample size is small, but the relationship is clear – buying before the halving and holding for a long time afterwards has been very profitable.
What About Litecoin?
The impending Bitcoin halving has been well covered, but what does this mean for Litecoin – the silver to Bitcoin’s gold? Litecoin was launched as a fork of Bitcoin, which would be “four times as fast with four times the supply.”
Litecoin, like Bitcoin, still halves every four years. But its halving schedule has seemingly slipped under the radar.
To date, Litecoin has only had one halving, which was on August 26th, 2015, and the next halving is only two months away. This time the sample size is even smaller, since this event has only happened once in history. But the results are interesting given that they don’t really mimic Bitcoin’s.
The best metric to use on Litecoin is its price relative to BTC.
On the day of the halving LTC was worth 0.01272 BTC. 150 days later the price actually decreased by 35% to 0.008189 BTC. One year after the halving the price was nearly 50% lower at 0.006595 BTC.
Looking at the graph below, it’s clear that the price of LTC peaked approximately 6 weeks prior to the halving, as if traders anticipated similar results to the Bitcoin halving but were disappointed.
Litecoin price at 2015 halving
In the last halving, purchasing 8 weeks prior to the halving would have returned less than a 5% profit to the date of the halving.
As of June 6th, we are exactly 8 weeks away from the LTC halving date, but this one may not be easy money. Based on an (admittedly tiny) sample size, history shows that LTC is unlikely to hold its run against Bitcoin.
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Logarithmic Bitcoin Price Chart Shows Similarity Between Previous Market Cycle and Current Market Conditions

Logarithmic Bitcoin Price Chart Shows Similarity Between Previous Market Cycle and Current Market Conditions

https://preview.redd.it/db05aburh0821.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=279f8ec300430140fc867eadba2017a78e81074f
https://cryptoiq.co/logarithmic-bitcoin-price-chart-shows-similarity-between-previous-market-cycle-and-current-market-conditions/
Bitcoin’s price increased by five orders of magnitude from 2012 through late 2017, where an order of magnitude is equivalent to a 10X (1,000 percent) price increase. This makes it difficult to look at the full history of Bitcoin with a linear chart since the rise of Bitcoin’s price from less than $1,000 to $20,000 during 2017 dwarfs all of the previous historical data. On a linear Bitcoin price chart, the data from 2012 to 2016 looks like a nearly flat line (see chart) despite Bitcoin having plenty of significant price movements before 2017.

Image courtesy Bitcoinwisdom.com. Upper chart is Bitcoin’s price in $. Lower chart is volume in Bitcoin. Linear scale.
On a logarithmic chart, the space between price levels becomes increasingly condensed as price rises, and this reveals the true nature of Bitcoin’s price action from 2012 to 2016. A logarithmic chart makes it easier to compare Bitcoin’s current market cycle to past market cycles.

https://preview.redd.it/7khm76qwh0821.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7a90f5642522c1b58f38c056d294c0ed494fc65
Image courtesy Bitcoinwisdom.com. Upper chart is Bitcoin’s price in dollars. Lower chart is volume in Bitcoins. Logarithmic scale.
It is noticeable that the rally that brought Bitcoin to over $1,000 for the first time in late 2013 and the late 2017 rally where Bitcoin hit $20,000 look similar on the chart, despite the peaks of the rallies being over an order of magnitude apart. This suggests that the market dynamics during the current market cycle and the previous cycle are similar, and therefore the data from the past can perhaps be used to predict the future.
In the logarithmic chart, it can be seen that, after the peak of the rally in November 2013, the market did not hit bottom until January 2015, and the bottom was not a single point. It was a drawn-out process that lasted through September 2015.
It took Bitcoin 13 months to hit its lowest price levels during the bear market, and the price of Bitcoin persisted near a bottom for 8 months. In total, the bear market lasted 21 months. Once the bull market started, it took Bitcoin 17 months to return to the all-time high around $1,100, yielding a total market recovery time of 38 months, a little over three years.
The current Bitcoin bear market has been ongoing for just over 12 months so far, and if past market behavior is a good predictor for the current market, the first 3 quarters of 2019 will be defined by Bitcoin’s price bottoming. The bottom is a process not a point, and Bitcoin hit its lowest levels near $3,000 only a couple of weeks ago in mid-December, and it is not certain that this is the lowest Bitcoin’s price will go.
If the current bear market follows the pattern of the previous bear market, then perhaps this bear market will end in late 2019. A recovery to the previous all-time high of $20,000 would not be expected until early 2021. A new all-time high would not occur until the end of 2021, and with simple extrapolation, this all-time high could be in excess of $100,000.
Past data is not a solid indicator of what will happen in the future, especially since there is relatively little historical data for Bitcoin. Therefore, using a logarithmic chart to make these predictions is not certain to be accurate. However, the striking similarity between the past market cycle and current market conditions makes it possibly useful to make predictions like this since similar market dynamics may be at work.
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How the Bitcoin price was changing

How the Bitcoin price was changing
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.

2009

The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system.

At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins.

The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.

2010

In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA.

As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things.

The two pizzas bought by Laszlo
In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.

2011

BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars.

The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.

2012

In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognized by European regulators.

2013

February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC.

On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road.

Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition.

But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency.

The Bitcoin price chart in November, 2013

2014

During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency.

Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.

2015

At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.

2016

In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.

2017

The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars.

How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:

  • In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;
  • China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;
  • In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;
  • The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.
However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.

2018

During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.

Nowadays

What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true.

There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:

  • Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;
  • Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;
  • and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.
As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂

Feel free to follow our updates and news on Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Telegram and BitcoinTalk.
Read what the customers say about SimpleSwap on Trustpilot.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with any questions you may have via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
submitted by SimpleSwapExchange to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]

How the Bitcoin price was changing

How the Bitcoin price was changing
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.

2009

The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system.

At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins.

The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.

2010

In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA.

As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things.

The two pizzas bought by Laszlo
In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.

2011

BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars.

The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.

2012

In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognized by European regulators.

2013

February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC.

On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road.

Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition.

But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency.

The Bitcoin price chart in November, 2013

2014

During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency.

Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.

2015

At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.

2016

In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.

2017

The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars.

How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:

  • In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;
  • China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;
  • In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;
  • The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.
However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.

2018

During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.

Nowadays

What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true.

There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:

  • Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;
  • Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;
  • and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.
As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂

Feel free to follow our updates and news on Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Telegram and BitcoinTalk.
Read what the customers say about SimpleSwap on Trustpilot.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with any questions you may have via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
submitted by SimpleSwapExchange to u/SimpleSwapExchange [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
📷
https://preview.redd.it/ithso6k9w7531.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e87d53120d9cc645b080c070afc5f9b402d56bf3
TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
Guide:
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary:
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
Content
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
https://preview.redd.it/ol9mlz0kw7531.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f76ac24ef02d785f56c8a770be745cfeddbb1e7
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.

https://preview.redd.it/slw2443lw7531.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=33181be556dbfc3a3f0e78e5c6a7674801787951
Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.

https://preview.redd.it/49ld77xlw7531.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=af5b7ff492fe7e8253640f9e6df7820a10c59f52
Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.

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The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.

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Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.

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Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.

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In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.

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BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.

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BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.

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4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed

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4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.

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5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.

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From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
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Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Note:
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
Notions:
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.

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Future Price Prediction of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin Signal That Preceded 9,200% BTC Rally Just Flashed  DeFi $9K Ethereum Price Prediction MY FINAL BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTION!!! WARNING!! BITCOIN FAKEOUT IMMINENT!! THE ONE PREDICTION THAT WOULD SHOCK EVERYONE!!! The most realistic Bitcoin Price and Time Forecast!

In mid-January 2013, a new Bitcoin price growth peak happened, and on April 11, it reached $266 per 1 BTC. The new bull run saw the light at the same level in November, and Bitcoin price reached $1240. In August 2015, hackers broke into the Bitfinex exchange and stole 120,000 BTC, so Bitcoin price dropped below $500. By the end of the year, the Masterluc is an anonymous Bitcoin trader, known for his impressive predictions in the price of Bitcoin. Most notable was his prediction of the end of the 2013 Bitcoin bubble, which was then followed by a bearish market for multiple years. Masterluc had expected Bitcoin to reach a price of between 40,000 and 110,000 US dollars by the end of the A rebirth of Long Short Term Memory artificial recurrent neural network architecture, originally proposed in 1997 by Sepp Hochreiter and Jürgen Schmidhuber (), sparked a new wave of optimism in guessing the future better by studying the past deeper.No wonder why. With a specific design of the LSTM unit, the analysis of time-series’ data points and their sequential relationships gave a hope The lowest Bitcoin Price since the 2012-2013 Crypriot financial crisis had been reached at 3:25 AM on 11 April: May 2014: $440 — $630: The downtrend first slow down and then reverse, increasing over 30% in the last days of May. Mar 2015: $200 — $300: Bitcoin Price fell through to early 2015. Early Nov 2015: $395 — $504 Bitcoin price is still rising. Experts predict the future rise for Bitcoin price as in 2017. 4 June 2019 $7,750 The price of bitcoin fell by more than 10%. 15 June 2019 $8,700 The price of BTC has risen above $ 8,000. Experts claim that the 2015 pattern is repeating. 16 June 2019 $9,311 Cryptocurrency updated the annual maximum at around $9000

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Future Price Prediction of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

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