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More dispersed computing power, which means that the coins will be further dispersed, and the value will be less controlled and influenced by a few people who controlled many coins. From the above examples of Monero and Monero Classic , we can see that changing the algorithm is a great positive signal for ordinary community usersAccording to the latest announcement on the official website of Ethereumx·NET (ETX), "Notice about the upcoming change of ETX algorithm and the opening of the testnet '', ETX will change the algorithm within the next 1-2 months. The reason is that the current large computing power miners pose a threat to ETX's long-term ecological planning in the future, because the large computing power mining has caused a very high concentration of chips. This can be seen through the blockchain browser. The future It may take time to balance the number of head coin holders and slowly digest with price space and time.
Just like Bitcoin, there were only a few people digging with a computer at the beginning. Later, as the market slowly became aware, and then derived the ASIC algorithm mining machine, as the price increased, some head currency holders slowly reduced their holdings, and slowly reduced the threat they posed to Bitcoin. But even so, there are still an unsolved 200,000 bitcoins in MtGox. Some people even predict that when MtGox closes the case, it will be the crash day of Bitcoin.
It’s impossible for a new currency to go the way which Bitcoin had passed. The market competition environment today is completely different. There are endless new currencies appearing every day, so at the appropriate time to avoid the risk of expanding and taking the lead is necessary. This may be the reason why the ETX development team decided to change the algorithm.
There are many currencies that have changed the algorithm, and most of the results are relatively good. For example, Monero (XMR), Monero should be the most successful currency to resist the ASIC algorithm. In the process of fighting with ASIC repeatedly, without exception, the mining machine manufacturers were expelled from the door, ensuring many communities. But Monroe Classic has retained the ASIC-friendly algorithm because it has not changed the algorithm, and almost no one is interested today. We can get a glimpse of their straightforward price performance in the chart below.
XMR's price with frequent algorithm changes, data source Coinmarketcap
XMC’s price with no algorithm changes, data source Coinmarketcap
More decentralized computing power means that the coins are further dispersed, and the value can be less controlled and influenced by a few people. From the examples of Monroe and Monroe Classic above, we can see that changing the algorithm is a great positive signal to the ordinary community users. And the announcement on the official website mentioned that the testnet will be launched before the end of this month, and anyone who’s interested can go to have a look.
ETX developers take precautionary measures ahead of time, which is a manifestation of responsibility for all community users.
Ethereumx·NET " Notice about the upcoming change of ETX algorithm and the opening of the testnet "
*There are risks in the market, this article is not intended as investment advice
Blatant price guessing here, based on the golden ratio:submitted by diadlep to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
Approximate previous highs: $32, $1000, $20K.
Approximate ratios (first derivative): 33 (1000/32) and 20 (20K/1000).
Approximate second derivative: 33/20 = 1/1.6 (or 1/phi for idiots like me).
If this holds, the next first derivative will be 20/1.6 = 12.5.
Then $20K x 12.5 = $250K.
Approximate dates of previous highs: May2011, Dec2013, Dec2017.
Approximate time spans between: 2.5yr, 4yr.
Approximate ratio: 1.6 (phi, or close enough lol).
If this holds, 4yr x 1.6 = 6.4yr
Dec2017 + 6.4yr = Apr2024, a few months before the next expected halving.
If this is true, the next top should be around $250K around Apr2024, violating expectations for that halving just like this one lol. (Personally, I think the top will likely be closer to the halving, but still before it. Possible reasons for this, beside the obvious, include the fact that the cryptomarket peak was a few weeks after the bitcoin peak - relative local market forces could cause the date to be other than the expected - and the fact that 1.6 is less than actual phi, lol.)
Just a guess: Smart money will "sell the news" at the time of the next halving, liquidating all the retail FOMO longs that anticipate the halving and the increase in the stock-to-flow ratio. Those liquidations will crash the market, eventually resulting in a relatively shallow bottoming in 2026 of around $20K, at which point the next halving will result in market action much like 2016-2017. The golden cycles of a natural market and the fixed 4 year cycles of bitcoin halvings are fundamentally at odds with each other, as are the dramatic changes in bitcoin due to the halvings. In nature, such disagreeing cycles find resonant behaviors that allow different parts to occasionally line up even while they are dissonant and chaotic at other times (think planetary orbits, lol). It is likely that, if bitcoin survives and remains dominant, such resonances will become common and studied, while it is similarly likely that if the cryptomarket in general survives and remains relevant, similar frequencies, along with a much great set of market golden cycles, will become fundamental to longterm market structure.
PS, if the pattern above holds, which it is unlikely to do given so many competing currencies, bitcoin will next peak at $1.9M in Jul2034 (leaving it far below the expected stock-to-flow "fair value" at that point). But again, such massive golden cycles are much more likely to be much more relevant for the cryptocurrency market cap as whole than for bitcoin alone over such large and chaos-promoting time spans. And again, imho.
PPS, I think we will see a mini-peak sometime in 2022 between $40K and $90K, followed by the aforementioned top, somewhat like a spread out version of what happened in 2013. Alternatively, we may see two mini peaks, one in 2021 around $20-25K, with another bouncing off both $100K and the "fair value" line in Dec2022-Mar2023.
PPPS, this all assumes we don't see some crazy supercycle low sub-$1K (maybe $500-700 or $2100-2700 Oct2020-Apr2021), which while not necessarily invalidating the predictive utility of natural cycles and resonances like phi, may invalidate all specified date and price targets. lol
PPPPS, there are two major conflicting factors moderating these predictions (guesses, lol):
The first is relatively positive - that the 2014 bear market was exaggerated and lengthened due to the severity of Mt. Gox fiasco's effects on the market, thus potentially also taking the wind out of the 2017 bull market (hard to believe, I know, but the top probably should have been a bit over $30K (assumign the $+1K top in 2013 was correct)). And thus, this bull market may be relatively more powerful and faster than otherwise expected, evidenced in part by the (so far) relatively short duration of the bear market.
The second factor is negative and significant, which is that the growth of bitcoin and the crypto market will lie on a curve resembling in some sense a logistic, namely that there's a limit to the number of people on earth, and the more people that adopt the fewer there will be that haven't, and the harder and more reticent the remaining group will be relative to previous converts (even as that reticence is of course competed with by seeing wider adoption occurring, lol). This and related factors will cause bitcoin's growth curve to decrease it's slope and growth derivatives in all frames. imho. If that growth deviates enough, it will eventually pierce every projected support among moving averages and those big log/quadratic curves everyone uses to project major tops and bottoms.
PPPPPS, yah, this is partially here because I despise tradingview lmao
TL;DR: $250K in Apr2024