Bitcoin Is Forming a Double Top At $6,000, And Now At Risk

The World is F'ed . This former Goldman Sachs fund manager suggest allocating 25% in Bitcoin

[It is behind the pay wall : https://www.businessinsider.com/why-coronavirus-stock-market-crash-historic-not-finished-raoul-pal-2020-4]

So copy / paste :

"The whole world's f---ed."
That's what Raoul Pal, the former hedge-fund manager who founded Real Vision, said on the "Lindzanity" podcast when he initially learned the coronavirus was uncontrolled and spreading rapidly.
"The moment the spread hit Iran ... and then Italy — that all happened over the span of three or four days — I was like: 'time to panic before everybody else,'" he said. "It's human behavior function. If the Chinese closed every single border and every city, everybody's going to do it."
To bring you up to speed, Pal retired at 36 after quitting jobs at Goldman Sachs and GLG Partners. He lives comfortably on a 140-person island in the Cayman Islands and spends his days writing market research, which comes with a hefty price tag of $40,000 per year.
"I said: 'Listen, this is the biggest economic event of all of our lifetimes — and it's coming'" he added. "And that was, in retrospect, the greatest call I've ever had."
But this isn't the first time Pal's nailed a prescient call. Back in October, he said the Federal Reserve needed to cut interest rates to zero and warned of negative interest rates in the US, both of which have materialized.
What's more, as the market was topping out in late February, Pal expressed his affinity for owning bonds — a trade that would've immensely rewarded investors who took his advice. He also warned that the implications from the coronavirus would be "meaningful and real."
That was before things really started to fall apart.
Today, Pal thinks the coronavirus will cause "the largest insolvency event in all history." And given his track record as of late, that's not reassuring.
"I think the balance of probabilities are that this is a much longer event — in terms of economic impacts — than anybody is pricing in," he said. "I think it's a huge societal change that's coming from all of this."
To Pal, the duration of the fallout stemming from the coronavirus is the key factor here — one that he thinks investors aren't paying enough attention to. In his mind, those who are a projecting sharp V-shaped recovery in the third and forth quarter are incorrect in their assumptions.
"Isolation is going to be a real event for a significant period of time," he said. "You've got a world that's going to be much more closed, and that's leading to complications in supply chains."
He added: "It makes people become more local."
Pal's prognostication echos that of billionaire "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach. In a DoubleLine webcast earlier this week, Gundlach said "we're going to be getting much more, less-connected to globalization" and "we're going to be bringing manufacturing back and thinking about things in very different ways."
But the changes that Pal and Gundlach highlight don't happen overnight, which is why Pal thinks the fallout could worsen. Every day that the pandemic drags on is one less day without production and consumption. Then that, in turn, heightens bankruptcy risk.
With all of that under consideration, here's how Pal is positioning his portfolio to weather a deeper equity rout. Ideally, he'd like to get to the allocation below.

"So I'm now in the point of thinking we've got another 20% downside or so to come before we get the 3-, 4-month bounce of hope," he said. "For the average guy, this is a very, very, very difficult world we're going to go into — and I can't sugarcoat it because there is no nice answer."
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Chainlink Price explodes - Reasons for the increase in LINK Price

Chainlink Price explodes - Reasons for the increase in LINK Price
Chainlink (LINK) is currently the most popular Defi project.
The LINK rate has almost doubled in the past 3 weeks and hit a new all-time high of $ 8.48. As a result, the market capitalization rose briefly to over $ 2.5 billion and placed LINK in 8th place at CoinMarketCap.
Of course, many are wondering how such a sharp rise in share prices could occur.
https://preview.redd.it/8c4avufatsa51.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fa98b24c647e46df8fd75333bb62071e7499fbb
Therefore, today we take a closer look at the possible reasons for the strong LINK Pump.
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Basically, there are currently three main factors that have led to the LINK price increase.
This includes the human psychology of pricing, high-profile partnerships, and a generally strong dynamic in the altcoin market.
In addition, the increasing trading volume may have fueled the LINK price increase.

Chainlink pricing

Then on July 6th, the time had come.
The LINK price exceeded its previous record high of $ 5.31 and entered the pricing phase.
This phase leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in most markets.
The way up is clear and has no natural resistance that could be identified by technical chart analysis.
Exactly this fact leads to the fact that many speculators get in and fear to miss something, are almost ready to pay any price.
Therefore the current Chainlink price increase could be irrational and encounter a hard correction.
Within the last seven days, after the old all-time high was broken, the price exploded by over 40%, rising from $ 5.31 to $ 8.48.
The LINK price is currently around USD 7.76.
The trading volume of LINK also rose to a level that has not been observed since April 2020.
At that point, the bitcoins price recovered from its strong sell-off to around $ 3,750.
During this period, the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors rose by leaps and bounds. Some analysts believe that the LINK price could rise to USD 10 in the next few weeks.
However, this statement should be treated with caution.

Partnerships stimulate business

Over the course of this year, Chainlink has entered into many high-profile partnerships with companies in the crypto sector. Chainlink partnered with Nexo on July 8th. Nexo is a crypto credit company with around 800,000 users. Chainlink is to make its Oracle solutions available to the company. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said:
We are excited to bring Chainlink's secure and reliable Oracle solutions to Nexo's popular credit platform so users can independently check the interest rate and collateral rates they should receive on the blockchain.
Over the past two months, Chainlink has partnered with blockchain projects and companies like Matic Network and Hedera Hashgraph. Chainlink was also mentioned in a Google blog post entitled Building hybrid blockchain/cloud applications with Ethereum and Google Cloud.
LINK does not miss a partnership and therefore remains on everyone's lips.
Feels like every major crypto company is already included as a partner. This attracts a lot of attention and thus increases interest in Chainlink.

Altcoin and Defi Momentum bring LINK up

The Altcoin market has shown its strong side in recent weeks. While the Bitcoin price was rather sideways, some altcoins have exploded. Chainlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other projects, especially from the Defi Space, were able to grow properly.
DeFi is on everyone's lips and investors are looking for the next “insider tip” to quickly make a few 100%.
The crypto market is becoming increasingly irrational and money is being thrown from one project to the next. It is strongly reminiscent of 2017 and 2018 at the ICO hype.
The strong hype and greed can be felt and makes a timely correction more and more likely.
Many are already talking about an Altcoin Season and are currently seeing LINK and many other Altcoin projects outperforming BTC. How long the situation lasts and whether further profits can be achieved with LINK is in the stars.
But you should keep in mind that Chainlink has increased by over 450% in the last 3-4 months. This could lead to strong correction.
submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]

How the problems of 2020 demonstrated to the world the “anti-fragility” of the crypto industry

How the problems of 2020 demonstrated to the world the “anti-fragility” of the crypto industry
How the problems of 2020 demonstrated to the world the “anti-fragility” of the crypto industry
2020 will be remembered for a long time: the threat of the third world war, the coronavirus pandemic, the global economic crisis and riots. And this is only six months. It is noteworthy, but while the global economy is in decline, the crypto industry, on the contrary, is accelerating the pace of development. Bitcoin has become for many a safe haven during the crisis, and the entire industry — the hope of salvation. Crypto companies have confirmed the growth in demand for goods and services related to digital assets, and it seems that the cryptosphere is fully consistent with the term “anti-fragility”, introduced by Nassim Taleb (author of the Black Swan economic bestseller) to identify systems that can benefit from unpredictable and stressful situations in the world. At least, the head of ScopeLift Ben DiFrancesco is sure of this.

What is anti-fragility

To begin with, we will deal with the concept of anti-fragility. This term was introduced by the famous professor, economist and trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who first voiced it in 2012 — in a book dedicated to the term “Anti-Fragility. How to capitalize on chaos.” Prior to this, Taleb gained special popularity and authority thanks to the introduction of the term “Black Swan”, which turned the perception of the economy over by many minds.
By anti-fragility, a professor refers to the ability of a system to capitalize on negative trends. Anti-fragile systems become better after a “collision with chaos”, which can mean various world disasters, stressful situations, shocking events, information noises, failures, attacks, malfunctions, and so on.
Many mistakenly confuse the concepts of anti-fragility and invulnerability, but there is a fundamental difference between them:
• Invulnerability is the ability to withstand stressful situations. World cataclysm will not affect invulnerable systems, but will not make them better.
• Anti-fragility is the ability to benefit from stressful situations. Anti-fragile systems are not just immune to disasters. In difficult conditions, they “harden” and become better.
Ben DiFrancesco, the founder of ScopeLift (a crypto project software development consulting company) and concurrently the author of the Buil Blockchain Tech portal, considers the crypto market an ideal example of anti-fragility.
Against the backdrop of all the negative shocks and tremendous changes in society that occurred in the first half of 2020, the crypto industry began to develop even faster. Blockchain technology more and more fits into our world as a solution to many problems, which were especially acute at the beginning of this year. Among them are the endless press of unsecured money, worsening international relations and increasing censorship on the Internet. Let’s go in an order.

Crypto-market versus money printing machine

The coronavirus pandemic caused an economic crisis around the planet. Both developed and developing countries faced massive unemployment, falling markets, and declining population returns. One way or another, the virus has affected everyone.
The states rushed to solve these problems by the old and “tested” method — by printing new money. China and the USA were especially distinguished in this field — the former introduced an injection of about $250 billion in the stock market in February, and the second poured into the economy a record for the planet $ 2.3 trillion (2.5 times more than during the 2008 crisis).
Alas, as a rule, when the state creates new money, the population pays for it. A sharp release to the market of unsecured money at the direction of management is fraught with serious consequences. The main one is the risk of mass inflation and the collapse of national currencies. Many complain about the Fed, which began in 2020 to print non-stop US dollars.

The number of dollars in circulation rose sharply in 2020. Source.
However, even such a sharp release to the market of new dollars is not the worst. It is much more dangerous that the Fed follows central banks of other countries, which also massively print unsecured national currencies in attempts to support the economy. If the dollar is somehow protected by the strong US position in the international arena, reduced credit and increased demand for American currency around the world, then most other countries cannot boast of such flexibility.
States that print money with a heap of economic problems run the risk of hyperinflation and fall victim to their own decisions. The scale of the problem is aggravated by the fact that during the crisis in such countries, the demand for dollars among the population is growing, so the thread on which the sword of Damocles hangs hanging over national currencies is very thin today.
Realizing the seriousness of the situation, many countries, such as Argentina, limit the ability of people and companies to buy dollars by introducing limits and various requirements. As a result, citizens begin to look for an alternative on the black market, buying dollars at a double rate, and also increasingly turn their attention to dollar stablecoins, which no one can forbid and for which you do not have to overpay. In the conditions of the crisis, the demand for stable coins began to grow at an accelerated pace, which is one of the brightest signs of the anti-fragility of the crypto industry, which has begun to squeeze benefits out of the negative situation in the world.
The demand for traditional cryptocurrencies, especially for bitcoin, is also growing. One of the main reasons is the protection against inflation, provided by limited emissions, strictly following clearly established rules. No one at the direction of the government or anyone else can “print” more bitcoins than is laid down in the code of his protocol. Many people saw in the cryptocurrency market a real alternative to national currencies, which fell under significant risks in 2020.

Protection against ethnic issues

The coronacrisis brought with it many other global problems. In particular, it undermined the confidence of the population and governments of many states in the so-called “new world order)”. Unhappy with the way the world is coping with the pandemic, people intend to end globalization, so anti-globalist ideas began to spread en masse. There is every reason to believe that such movements will receive political support in many regions.
Naturally, this carries enormous risks. But one cannot say that these moods arise without reason. Recent months have clearly demonstrated the extreme fragility of global supply chains. Nearly all countries in the world, including the United States, fought to import critical materials needed to fight the pandemic. Many people have a logical question in their heads: should countries with incompatible value systems be interconnected, especially if they have to suffer from this interconnectedness themselves, constantly giving way to richer states?
On this basis, interethnic relations between peoples and leaderships of countries have worsened. If the trend continues in the coming years, then humanity will have no choice but to resort to massively using cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
If people cannot rely on reliable institutions as an intermediary for cross-border cooperation, the value of decentralized networks will significantly increase as an alternative that does not require trust. Each decision by world states aimed at weakening alliances with other countries, including reducing the flow of people or physical goods across borders, accelerates the development of the limitless digital economy of the Internet.
Digital assets combined with smart contracts can play a key role in ensuring the transition of the world to new international relations. They are able to serve as a guarantor that does not require trust in the other side and even once again contact it.

Fighting Internet Censorship

In the past few years, social media giants such as Facebook and Twitter have gained tremendous opportunities to shape the flow of information in the modern world. With their help, information is distributed faster than any media, and the conclusions that people make on social networks often become decisive. This gives the giants in this field enormous power, which for many years has not been controlled (and by anyone) in any way. This issue has been ignored for a long time, but the situation has changed over the past two years.
Previously, large corporations themselves determined censored content. Companies could mark posts as “unacceptable” if they, in their opinion, do not comply with any laws, call for aggression, contradict moral principles, and so on. However, at the end of May, the US President Donald Trump decided to significantly narrow the powers of the media giants and issued an appropriate order, citing user complaints for blocking allegedly non-violating messages. By the way, Trump’s own tweet, where he called particularly active protesters “thugs,” and threatened: “When looting begins, shootings begin,” was not complete.
Perhaps an additional reason for the desire to narrow the powers of media giants was the fact that on the eve of the election, the president wanted to become “closer to the people”, appealing that everyone is free to express their opinion. Be that as it may, the invariable fact is that in this way he inserted the sticks into the wheels of Big Tech corporations. Moreover, based on Trump’s message, only governments should determine what can and cannot be blocked.
In fact, any form of concentrated power in social networks can be dangerous for both private and legal entities. If media companies become almost monopolies, they can control the opinion of the population and block any content that is objectionable to them. But power over social media in the hands of states is no less dangerous because the government can do the same. After all, it is not known who and what decides to block tomorrow. Suddenly it will be cryptocontent, especially since the prerequisites have already arisen repeatedly, or the statements of people dissatisfied with social injustice.
Social media executives want to be able to censor and edit the content that their users generate, while remaining protected from liability for it. The state wants to be able to apply its own standards of “neutrality” on these platforms, without specifying that such powers may end with even greater inequality and censorship.
The war for censorship generates the interest of ordinary citizens in decentralized social networks and media platforms. More and more people are expressing a desire to get a decent alternative, where no one will be able to control their opinion and will not forbid them to express it. Due to the anti-fragility of the crypto industry, the chances of success of blockchain platforms are significantly increasing. Yes, they have not yet become mainstream, but interesting experiments, for example, with the Hive platform or decentralized twitter, show their great potential. With each censored post, they are one step closer to widespread use.

What will the anti-fragility of the crypto industry lead to?

Ben DiFrancesco is far from the first to notice the anti-fragility of the crypto industry. Talk about this has been going on for several years. Experts have repeatedly recorded various moments when the industry managed to squeeze the positive out of one or another negative situation in the world. Just now, against the background of the extremely difficult first half of 2020, this has become especially noticeable.
Bitcoin has been “buried” already 380 times, but it, like the whole industry, continues to develop rapidly step by step, despite external world instability and internal cryptozymes. And if the assumptions about antifragility are true, the industry will become even stronger with each new world cataclysm.
Humanity is tired of the problems caused by the current world system. People want freedom and openness.
They get tired of concentrated power, unfair economic relations and censorship. The crypto industry offers an alternative and has every chance to solve these problems. To become, if not a panacea, then at least “the power of good,” as DiFrancesco claims. There are no guarantees, but there is faith and hope. And they are capable of anything.
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Some informative responses from Colin and Andy from the just-concluded Nano AMA at the Atomic Wallet Telegram group

The AMA ran today from 13:00 - 14:20 UTC, with Colin and Andy. I've copied over some of their responses that I found give me better insight into Nano. Their responses are in italics. Responses to different questions are separated by double spaces. Colin's responses are listed first, followed by Andy's. Sorry I couldn't copy over the questions as well. I've added my comments in places.
From Colin:
PoW coins have done a good marketing that the energy expenditure makes your coins more secure but it’s really unnecessory. PoW coins need to continue expending work because if they stop, their security parameter erodes.
Nano has no such problem, once an election for a transaction is complete, it’s confirmed. If it sits there it stays confirmed and it doesn’t need any extra effort. Wow, put that way, Bitcoin seems unsustainable in the long term when there is an alternative like Nano.

Yes the circulating supply is forever like this. The reason it can’t change is because nano transactions can only send your current balance or less to someone else, this means new coins can never be injected in to the system. Interesting design reason new Nano can't be minted.

Volatility is a focus with all cryptocurrencies and it comes from low volume, it’s not intrinsic to cryptocurrency itself. To cure low volume our focus is integrating it in to parts of the economy where it solves a problem, rather than just emulating credit cards etc.
Not having fees in the network puts us in a very good position for buying beer, for example. Typically credit card providers will charge 2-5% for a purchase, maybe even more, and it tight margin businesses that make 2-5% profit anyway, this is huge. A lot of Reddit discussion on crypto adoption considers only user experience and overlooks benefits to merchants.

Nano is purpose built to be the fastest and most decentralized currency around. Our transactions settle in less than 1 second and it’s all done on a network with no fees, and a tiny environmental footprint
Decentralization is an essential focus for us, many other cryptocurrencies can get fast or low cost, but they can’t also maintain decentralization which I think we do very well.
Well the sustainability comes from 2 main parts. We have a laser sharp focus on being the most efficient currency. This means our development stays focused and eventually the amount of things going in to the code base will trend downward; once we’ve achieved the goal we just have to make things more efficient.
The second part of sustainability is our Open Representative Voting which is our replacement for PoW mining. We saw the energy expenditure as something that would come in conflict with any system that would attain high adoption so our goal was to get the same or better decentralization benefits and also have a low energy footprint. We think we achieved that goal as our representatives are all over the world under many different organizations. A healthy decentralized representative set is good for long term sustainability.

And on the simplicity, nano is probably one of the easiest cryptocurrencies to use. There are no fees to calculate, the UX impact of entering a fee is greatly understated. How much should the fee be? Does my grandma know what network load is? What does it mean with respect to fee?
Nano simply has accounts and balances, you send and it lands in their wallet in less than a second, nothing can be simpler.

We’re not looking to expand in to defi right now. I have some reservations about it’s viability. One thing I’ve noticed in my many years of seeing technology evolution is to not try and change 2 things at once. We don’t want to simultaneously change the currency people use and also change how finances are done. First change the currency, then change the finances.
I think Libra suffers from a market mis-assesment. Essentially what they’re claiming is be a multi-currency bank account for every facebook user. Getting users electronic bank accounts isn’t a technology problem, it’s a regulatory and logistics problem. Since Facebook is essentially being a bank for people, they’re going to be required to comply with KYC requirements. Sending/receiving isn’t going to be open as it is in cryptocurrency because of AML requirements. People are not going to have access to the system in remote areas because how do they deposit or more importantly withdraw local currency from their Libra accounts.
I think privacy is a big concern with our transactions and credit card purchases and it’s only getting worse. Letting Facebook/Libra know all your purchase history I think is a huge mistake.
I think it also doesn’t fundamentally solve the central banking problem where they can print more money and inflate the currency supply. I see this behavior as a fundamentally unethical thing that cryptocurrency solves and Libra is taking a huge step back on that.
I don’t see anything compelling about it and I don’t see long term viability.

I think disk usage is going to be a low concern long term. The goal with Nano is to be a widely used commercial grade currency so the representatives will be banks and other financial institutions, universities, and tech companies. Considering how much youtube, instagram, and other social media data is created each day, I don’t think the ledger size will be a long-term limiting factor. Looks like the role of hobbyists in running nodes will diminish with widening adoption.

Nano’s value is being the fastest, most efficient currency around. Entreprenuers make use of natural market incentives / natural efficiencies to make money on a business.
Cryptocurrency has distorted that term a bit with something more closely resembling subsidies. The transaction fees and block rewards are subsidizing the security parameter and processing prioritization. PoW chains need this subsidy because their security parameter costs a lot. Additionally we’ve seen miners work to limit the network’s throughput in order to rent-seek on the limited transaction space. Damn, talk about unaligned incentives between users and miners.
The people we’re looking for are the entreprenuers that know how to make use of a faster, lower cost currency.

Yes, having a fixed supply is an essential component of currency. If people can add more currency to the system, they’re taking value away from everyone else in that process. It’s unfair and unethical.
1 Nano actually can be divided down very small so there’s no risk of not having enough coins.

In this response, Colin is addressing a question about Steem and other dPoS systems. One major difference with Nano consensus is: having more Nano does not get you more Nano, there are no rewards for holding Nano. Holding nano doesn’t give people voting privledges on network changes, or any other centralizing component associated with holding.
Another big difference is voting in nano does not produce blocks, it chooses between conflicting blocks that a user publishes. If you don’t attempt to double-spend, your transactions cannot be voted against.

From Andy:
1. The faucet did indeed seed Nano's amazing international communities, and the contributions from around the world to the project have been unbelievable over that last 2.5 years. Communities are still active, engaged and building 💪
2. The effects of Nano being added to the Atomic Wallet (and other multi-currency wallets) is two fold. It increases the accessibility and convenience of storing Nano alongside other coins and also helps to disperse voting weight across a wider spread of representatives - increasing decentralization!

We certainly feel that Nano possesses far and away the best fundamentals, democratic approach to decentralization, and user experience.
Being fully distributed and operating on a the mainnet since 2015 is also very important, and puts Nano way ahead of many other projects making bold claims about future potential.
Nano is here today, and works as one would expect the digital money would!

Privacy is an attractive proposition to users of digital money for obvious reasons, it can be very important. Our position towards privacy is more conservative as we have seen many more hurdles to mainstream adoption being put in front of privacy-based projects.
With that being said, there are eyes towards the technical implications of introducing privacy, but it is extremely difficult to do this without incurring slowdowns to settlement times.
Throughout 2019 we were able to make significant progress in helping some of the more well-established cryptocurrency services such as exchanges, fiat gateways, payment platforms, and wallets- like Atomic 😄, to understand and integrate Nano. This proliferation of Nano across the space has ensured that it is increasingly more convenient for users and merchants to access and begin using Nano for payments.
submitted by Live_Magnetic_Air to nanocurrency [link] [comments]

About KoinPro: The futures exchange you've been waiting for!

About KoinPro: The futures exchange you've been waiting for!
I had a discussion with one of my friends last year about bitcoin futures and exchanges where you can trade bitcoin futures. The topic was how difficult it is to trade bitcoin futures, as it involves complex order functions that beginners or even relatively experienced traders may find difficult to understand.
Then we came to the conclusion that while trading bitcoin futures will allow us to better control our transactions and we can better control our risk appetite, it is better to wait for an exchange that can offer bitcoin futures trading while maintaining simplicity. and flexible enough to adapt to promising and, of course, advanced futures traders. Fortunately for us, we don't have to wait long, as KoinPro is here with its advanced features to redefine bitcoin futures trading.

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submitted by Alex1998Sasha to KoinPro [link] [comments]

Murmurs of the Sea | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2020

Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world.
-Albert Camus, The Plague
This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254
Secured physical gold – $19 211
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106
Bitcoin – $115 330
Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094
Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 303
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 492
Total portfolio value: $1 566 946 (-$236 479 or -13.1%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.6% (4.4% under)
Global shares – 22.3%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.6% (2.4% under)
Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.8%
International bonds – 10.4%
Total bonds – 15.2% (0.2% over)
Gold – 8.8%
Bitcoin – 7.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw an extremely rapid collapse in market prices for a broad range of assets across the world, driven by the acceleration of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Broad and simultaneous market falls have resulted in the single largest monthly fall in portfolio value to date of around $236 000.
This represents a fall of 13 per cent across the month, and an overall reduction of more the 16 per cent since the portfolio peak of January.
[Chart]
The monthly fall is over three times more severe than any other fall experienced to date on the journey. Sharpest losses have occurred in Australian equities, however, international shares and bonds have also fallen.
A substantial fall in the Australia dollar has provided some buffer to international equity losses - limiting these to around 8 per cent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 23 per cent. In short, in the period of acute market adjustment - as often occurs - the benefits of diversification have been temporarily muted.
[Chart]
The last monthly update reported results of some initial simplified modelling on the impact of a hypothetical large fall in equity markets on the portfolio.
Currently, the actual asset price falls look to register in between the normal 'bear market', and the more extreme 'Global Financial Crisis Mark II' scenarios modelled. Absent, at least for the immediate phase, is a significant diversification offset - outside of a small (4 per cent) increase in the value of gold.
The continued sharp equity market losses have left the portfolio below its target Australian equity weighting, so contributions this month have been made to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This coming month will see quarterly distributions paid for the A200, VGS and VAS exchange traded funds - totalling around $2700 - meaning a further small opportunity to reinvest following sizeable market falls.
Reviewing the evidence on the history of stock market falls
Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happen, and then there are weeks in which decades happen. This month has been four such weeks in a row, from initial market responses to the coronavirus pandemic, to unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses aimed at lessening the impact.
Given this, it would be foolish to rule out the potential for other extreme steps that governments have undertaken on multiple occasions before. These could include underwriting of banks and other debt liabilities, effective nationalisation or rescues of critical industries or providers, or even temporary closure of some financial or equity markets.
There is a strong appeal for comforting narratives in this highly fluid investment environment, including concepts such as buying while distress selling appears to be occurring, or delaying investing until issues become 'more clear'.
Nobody can guarantee that investments made now will not be made into cruel short-lived bear market rallies, and no formulas exist that will safely and certainly minimise either further losses, or opportunities forgone. Much financial independence focused advice in the early stages of recent market falls focused on investment commonplaces, with a strong flavour of enthusiasm at the potential for 'buying the dip'.
Yet such commonly repeated truths turn out to be imperfect and conditional in practice. One of the most influential studies of a large sample of historical market falls turns out to provide mixed evidence that buying following a fall reliably pays off. This study (pdf) examines 101 stock market declines across four centuries of data, and finds that:
Even these findings should be viewed as simply indicative. Each crisis and economic phase has its unique character, usually only discernible in retrospect. History, in these cases, should inform around the potential outlines of events that can be considered possible. As the saying goes, risk is what remains after you believe you have thought of everything.
Position fixing - alternative perspectives of progress
In challenging times it can help to keep a steady view of progress from a range of perspectives. Extreme market volatility and large falls can be disquieting for both recent investors and those closer to the end of the journey.
One perspective on what has occurred is that the portfolio has effectively been pushed backwards in time. That is, the portfolio now sits at levels it last occupied in April 2019. Even this perspective has some benefit, highlighting that by this metric all that has been lost is the strong forward progress made in a relatively short time.
Yet each perspective can hide and distort key underlying truths.
As an example, while the overall portfolio is currently valued at around the same dollar value as a year ago, it is not the same portfolio. Through new purchases and reinvestments in this period, many more actual securities (mostly units in ETFs) have been purchased.
The chart below sets out the growth in total units held from January 2019 to this month, across the three major exchange trade funds holdings in the portfolio.
[Chart]
From this it can be seen that the number of securities held - effectively, individual claims on the future earnings of the firms in these indexes - has more than doubled over the past fifteen months. Through this perspective, the accumulation of valuable assets shows a far more constant path.
Though this can help illuminate progress, as a measure it also has limitations. The realities of falls in market values cannot be elided by such devices, and some proportion of those market falls represent initial reassessments of the likely course of future earnings, and therefore the fundamental value of each of those ETF units.
With significant uncertainty over the course of global lock-downs, trade and growth, the basis of these reassessments may provide accurate, or not. For anyone to discount all of these reassessments as wholly the temporary result of irrational panic is to show a remarkable confidence in one's own analytical capacities.
Similarly, it would be equally wrong to extrapolate from market falls to a permanent constraining of the impulse of humanity to innovate, adjust to changed conditions, seek out opportunities and serve others for profit.
Lines of position - Trends in expenditure
A further longer-term perspective regularly reviewed is monthly expenses compared to average distributions.
Monthly expenditure continues to be below average, and is likely to fall further next month as a natural result of a virus-induced reduction of shopping trips, events and outings.
[Chart]
As occurred last month, as a function some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure, a downward slope in distributions continues.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 71.9% 97.7% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 87.7% 119.2% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 70.2% 95.5%
Summary
This month has been one of the most surprising and volatile of the entire journey, with significant daily movements in portfolio value and historic market developments. There has been more to watch and observe than at any time in living memory.
The dominant sensation has been that of travelling backwards through time, and revisiting a stage of the journey already passed. The progress of the last few months has actually been so rapid, that this backwards travel has felt less like a set back, but rather more like a temporary revisitation of days past.
It is unclear how temporary a revisitation current conditions will enforce, or exactly how this will affect the rest of the journey. In early January I estimated that if equity market fell by 33 per cent through early 2020 with no offsetting gains in other portfolio elements, this could push out the achievement of the target to January 2023.
Even so, experiencing these markets and with more volatility likely, I don't feel there is much value in seeking to rapidly recalculate the path from here, or immediately alter the targeted timeframe. Moving past the portfolio target from here in around a year looks almost impossibly challenging, but time exists to allow this fact to settle. Too many other, more important, human and historical events are still playing out.
In such times, taking diverse perspectives on the same facts is important. This Next Life recently produced this interesting meditation on the future of FIRE during this phase of economic hardship. In addition, the Animal Spirits podcast also provided a thoughtful perspective on current market falls compared to 2008, as does this article by Early Retirement Now. Such analysis, and each passing day, highlights that the murmurs of the sea are louder than ever before, reminding us of the precariousness of all things.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Hide and Seek

An old friend of mine emailed this to me a while back with the subject line “Hide and Seek” and I’ve been hesitant to post it for reasons that should become obvious as you read it. That said, I feel that enough time has gone by for this to be safe so I’m going to post it here. The only edits I’ve made were swapping out names and formatting, otherwise it’s all exactly as he sent it.
T, if you’re reading this then message me. I want to know if you’re alright, and if you are I know you’ll be looking for this story to show up.
This is what the email said:
Rijento,
I’m writing this story because I feel like I need an outlet. I swear to god that you better actually check your email for once in your damn life!
Please…
As for if you actually are reading this, I want you to wait as long as your (admittedly) better judgment tells you to wait and then post this story online. I know it’s a bit vain, but I want people to know my story. Hell, it might be the last one I ever tell. Double hell, it might actually even help some poor soul out.
I’m going to disappear after sending this, hopefully the good kind of disappear and not the death kind. I know nobody but you is going to believe this story but damn if typing this out didn’t make my sorry ass feel better. You were right about that man, I’m sorry for giving you shit for writing so much…
This is the attached file. “Hide and Seek”:
Before I get in to the ‘hiding’ and ‘seeking’ I have a bit of a confession that needs to be made. I work as a transporter for a deep web black market site… I hope it doesn’t change your opinion of me too much, sorry for not telling you sooner.
I’m the guy they call when they get an order for something they can’t send through the mail. Guns and live animals are two good examples. You’d be pretty hyped to know how many rich assholes just order lions and tigers from the dark web.
For obvious reasons, I can’t go in to too much detail, I don’t want to make any dangerous enemies and even after this I still don’t want to lose my job. It’s a pretty sweet gig all things considered, all I have to do is pick up from the seller and deliver to the buyer. I can even choose what jobs I want to take, lets me cling to what little principles I still have. And I DO have principles. After a few years working for the site, my two rules were: no people and no crossing borders.
Anyways, I got into a bit of a bind with the cryptocurrency crash that happened early this year. The site mostly pays in Bitcoin and, well, I decided to let my wallet sit and grow. By the time I realized what happened, my savings were destroyed. Nobody expected it to crash that hard… And it probably wouldn’t have been as much of a problem if I hadn’t also gotten used to living a life full of the finer things. I didn’t really ‘save’ all that much to begin with either. So when my savings finally ran dry and the market was still down, I decided to… Lower my standards a bit and take a riskier, higher paying job.
Organ transport.
I haven’t done it before… I hadn’t been that broke in a long time. Organ jobs pay well too, and I figured I still wasn’t strictly breaking my ‘no people’ rule if it was just their organs. So, I hopped on the site and browsed through the pitiful number of requests in my area till I found what I was looking for. A rich buyer who: had shady connections, was in need of some organs, and lacked either the time or patience to wait for them to come legally. As far as these sort of requests went, this was pretty much the norm from what I’d heard. So I accepted the job and got an email with some additional details about the order: the customer needed two kidneys (which was what I was to transport) and a liver (which they had made a separate request for).
From what other people on the site have told me, what should have happened was the job would move to the ‘seeking seller’ section and I’d be on hold till someone… ‘_acquired_’ the kidneys.
What actually happened probably should have tipped me off to use my monthly free withdraw… I got a notification two hours later that there was a seller.
Rijento, I don’t know how much you know about medicine, but if you do know anything then you’re probably squirming in your own skin about right now. For those who may or may not be reading this that are not in the know, not only do the donor and receiver have to have compatible blood types but kidneys only last about a day outside of a warm body.
Not exactly a product you can stockpile.
I got another email, about the pickup this time, and began the internal debate between the bad feeling in my gut and my empty wallet… You can probably guess which one of them won out… Anyways, I planned my route; one hour to get to the seller and four hours to get from there to the buyer. I sent the site my plan and within minutes they approve of it and set up an actual meeting point. I sighed and grabbed my things, trying to swallow my nerves the entire hour it took me to reach the meeting point.
I sat down on a bench in a city park and waited for what seemed like ages before I felt someone staring at me. It took me a solid minute to pick out who it was even though there were only a few people around. He was sitting with his back to me at a picnic table about ten yards away from me and whenever I looked away I could feel his eyes on me. When we eventually did make eye-contact he bounced excitedly in his seat and waved me over; my heart sank as he also slid a small case into my line of sight.
I forced myself to smile, walked over, sat down, and hid my annoyance. Most of the buyers on the site were practically carbon copies of each other. Probably because you could only become a buyer if another buyer knew and endorsed you. The sellers, on the other hand, were all certifiably insane.
None of the other transporters I’d chatted with had ever met with a ‘normal’ seller. Because of this, all of them quickly learned to keep conversation to a minimum and to not under any circumstances piss any of them off. I decided to follow in their example.
The man sitting in front of me looked friendly enough, overly so if anything. He was scrawny, didn’t look like he would be strong enough to… well… kill someone and harvest their insides. He had a strange smile on his face, and even now I can’t get it out of my head. The kind of overly friendly, wide toothed smile that mothers warned their children to stay away from. It somehow managed to be both inviting and creepy at the same time.
I smiled back and spoke up, “So you’re the seller then?” I asked, and the man nodded.
He nodded and responded in a sickeningly sweet voice… He sounded like a child in a toy store, his voice strained with excitement and wonder as he droned on to his parents about what toys he wanted.
“Oh I’m so glad you found me. For a minute there I thought I’d have to call ‘olly olly oxen free.’” He said with a pleased sigh, pushing the case to my side of the table. “You know… Over the years I’ve gotten quite good at playing hide and seek. So good, in fact, that I’ve never been found. Not. Even. Once. Do you want to know my secret?” the man asked, his voice still just as unsettlingly sweet as his smile.
“Sure, what’s your secret?” I asked. I really, really didn’t want to know what the hell he was talking about; but if it kept him happy then…
He clapped rapidly and bounced in place, “Oh I’m so glad that you’re a curious one. My secret is that the seekers never know that they’re playing.”
“Makes sense…” I said, opening the case momentarily to verify. Two kidneys in pristine condition, doused with preserving fluid, wrapped in plastic. and packed in ice. “If the seeker doesn’t know they’re playing then how would they know to start looking?” I said, leaving out the fact that it would just be stalking at that point before swallowing hard when I thought about where these kidneys came from.
“You’re a smart one…” he said with a smile as I sent a message confirming the pickup. All that was left was to wait for the transaction to process. “I was worried about this last one though… she came right up to me. This. Close.” he said, leaning in till our faces almost touched.
I struggled to keep my composure, and managed to keep from jumping or pushing him away. “So what did you do?” I asked as he leaned back, my suspicions about these kidneys being all but confirmed.
“Why, nothing of course…” He said, a slightly bewildered expression on his face. He looked as though I just asked him how to breathe. I glanced down at my phone to see if the transaction had been verified yet and he snapped his fingers like he remembered something. “Oh I must apologize!” he said, making me look up, “I forgot that you don’t play much… I simply held my breath, closed my eyes, and wished that she would just… go away.”
“You’re right… You are good at hide and seek...” I said, wishing to myself that he would just go away and hearing the familiar ding of a successful transaction sound on both of our phones as if to answer my prayers. I reached out my hand as a formality and he grabbed it and shook it vigorously. I forced a smile and stood, although what he said next made my blood nearly freeze.
“You’re the first person to find me in oh so long…” He trailed off as he said it, his voice slowly shifting from that of an exited child to the cold blooded maniac that he was. “Maybe my games won’t be so one sided from now on,” He said, his voice disturbingly normal. Although, even without looking back I could tell that the same sickeningly sweet smile was glued to his face. I kept walking but waved my arm as though saying goodbye.
The worst part was that I could feel him watching me as I walked back to my car… Not just at first, like if he was watching me leave, but the entire way back, and even as I got in my car. I took a moment to look around and sighed as I saw nothing. It might not sound like much to you. I don’t know, I can still hardly describe it myself, but he had this… creepy way of getting under your skin just by talking to you.
I wrote it off as me just being paranoid, the guy harvests organs from people for a living so of course everything he says is creepy. I groaned and started my car, but it wasn’t until I hit the freeway that I was finally able to shake the feeling of his gaze. It’s not like he could’ve been following me, by then I was already paranoid enough to be checking for that, making a few detours just to be sure of it.
And because of my detours, I ended up being about an hour past the scheduled drop off with the buyer… Lost my chance at a tip for sure, guy was furious and there was nothing I could tell him to calm him down. I’m pretty sure, ‘sorry I’m late, but the seller was a total psycho and I wanted to make sure he wasn’t following me,’ wouldn’t have been a very good excuse.
Whatever, I had my money and the buyer had his organs and plenty of time for whatever operation that used them. Not much to complain about on either side, well except for the fact that I already knew I wouldn’t be sleeping that night. Especially because the feeling of being watched had returned as soon as I set foot out of my car which was, again, impossible. The site never tells the sellers anything about the buyers or transporters, so there’s no way he could have known where I was headed to and no way that he could have followed me.
I hopped back in my car and started to head for home, hoping that a few tabs of melatonin would be enough for at least a few hours of sleep. And again, I could feel eyes on me as I drove and I saw his eerie smile everywhere until I hit the highway. I felt a weight lift off of my shoulders then, although I made sure to take the most winding path home that I could afford gas for (which was quite a bit after a job like that). By the time I did get home it was starting to get dark, and I had made a few loops around my apartment just to be sure I didn’t still feel his eyes on me.
Luckily, my apartment building has a public parking garage attached to it so even if I was being followed I felt safe enough that nobody would be able to find my room. But Just to be sure, I took the stairs for the first time in months.
Have any of you ever climbed seven flights of stairs out of paranoia before Rijento? Well in case you haven’t let me tell you what it’s like. Do you remember running up the stairs from the basement after turning off the lights as a kid? That feeling of unease and terror? Well it’s like that, but you aren’t a kid anymore. It’s not the dark or what imaginary monsters could be lurking in it that frightens you anymore. Instead, you’re worried about who could be hiding in the darkness, what real monster could be following you up those stairs… I’m no slouch when it comes to exercise but it still drained everything out of me hauling my body up those stairs on my hands and feet like an animal as fast as I could.
I got inside and locked the door securely behind me, panting, covered in sweat, but I sighed in relief with the fact that I hadn’t felt anyone watching me at all during my climb. I took a moment to catch my breath, slumping down by the door and chuckling to myself while shaking my head. I couldn’t believe that I’d let that freak get so deep under my skin.
Once I had caught my breath, I stood up and made my way to my couch before flopping onto it. I wanted nothing more than to go to sleep then and there, but I had to be smart with my money this time. I immediately cashed the Bitcoin out. Better to pay myself out in small increments, but I had bills to pay and I’d already learned my lesson about leaving things in Bitcoin.
Once business was taken care of, I grabbed the remote control and flicked on the TV. The familiar faces of the local news anchors greeted me and I began drifting off to sleep while listening to the happenings of our city.
It was around seven a.m. when I was woken up by the sound of the ‘breaking news’ alert coming on.
“We are just receiving reports of a ghastly murder of one [yeah, I’m not gonna put her name or age here] year old college student living on her own. Police investigators say that several of her organs were found to be missing and that they found evidence of someone living in her home without her knowledge for quite some time before the murder…”
The reporters kept talking about how much of a tragedy the situation was… But I wasn’t listening. How could I listen…
I’ve never been less happy to be right then I was at that moment. I shuddered thinking about it. My thoughts and paranoia regarding the man I’d met the other day bubbling back up to the surface. It was then that the reality of what I’d done hit me like a freight train. By accepting that contract I doomed that girl to die… All because I needed some quick cash.
I stood up and went to the kitchen and opened my liquor cabinet. Without looking, I grabbed a bottle of something with shaking hands and fumbled with the top while trying to keep my mind clear of thoughts. Once I had the cap off I took several deep swigs from the bottle, spilling quite a bit down my chin before I set it down and gasped for air.
The burn of the alcohol in my throat gave me something to focus on while it worked its magic on the rest of my body. As my mind slowly clouded I found my way to a chair and found it easier to think about what happened without panicking.
My first thought was that I needed to do something. I knew the guy’s face, I should go to the cops! It was at this moment that the… Less impulsive side of my brain kicked in. I go to the cops and all I do is give myself a one way ticket to an early grave. My employers don’t take kindly to police interactions.
I slowly resigned myself to the fact that I was going to have to live with the consequences of this job for the rest of my life… I’m a coward, I know.
Anyways, the next few days passed by slowly. I was… Not in a good place mentally and I’m sure you remember how much alcohol my cabinets were stocked with. I blacked out more than once only to wake up gasping for breath from drinking too much. It was honestly a miracle that I didn’t kill myself through alcohol poisoning.
But I… Managed to come to terms with everything. Don’t get me wrong, I still had nightmares where I was the guy hiding in that girls closet… But I wasn’t drinking my problems away anymore, although I think that was more because of the fact that I’d run out of liquor than any meaningful character development.
It was about a week later that I was able to get my first night of actual sleep. I didn’t dream about anything either so that was a plus. I know it probably sounds bad, but I was starting to feel normal again… Like I could maybe find a way to just be myself…
Either way, even after all that I still wanted to keep my job. I just added a new rule: no organs.
From there I fell back into more or less my old routine. I went to eat out almost every day though, I thought any excuse that got me cleaned up and out of my place was worth taking…
And then, I began to feel it again. That skin-crawling sensation of eyes on me from somewhere that I felt the day I met Mr. Hide&Seek. I didn’t think much of it at first, I only felt the eyes when I was surrounded by other people so of course one or two would be looking my way right? I thought I was just guilty and paranoid.
But no matter what I did, I would always feel like I was being watched whenever other people were around. So I started driving more and more and eating out less and less. Not driving anywhere in particular, just driving… I felt safe on the open road, I couldn’t feel any eyes on me… For about a week.
It started small. A shiver down my spine here and there. A sharp sensation that made my eyes snap to one car or another. Then it came more frequently, and I began to get more and more paranoid as the feeling became stronger and stronger.
I started driving less and less, and whenever I did, I kept my eyes on the cars around me. Trying desperately to find where that feeling was coming from. To find who was watching me… Trying to catch a glimpse of his face in a passing car.
I even thought I did see him a few times… Except that was just paranoia… I hope.
Eventually, I stopped driving unless I had to. I shut myself in my apartment, only going out to get groceries and always, always making sure that I didn’t feel anyone watching me before I parked. But that feeling would always find me whenever I went out.
This went on for about a month. I started to drink again, I didn’t go out to eat or drive anymore. I paid someone to deliver my groceries to the garage of my building. All I did was eat, sleep, drink, and watch movies or play games… I’d be living the dream, if I didn’t think a serial killer was stalking me.
Part of me believed that I was just being paranoid and to be honest I desperately wanted to believe that part of me… But not enough to stake my life on it. And after another week of living like a shut-in the feeling of being watched started to re-surface.
Like before it started off small. I felt a ping of eyes on me and from then on I kept the blinds securely closed. Even then, the feeling persisted for days, gradually gathering in strength. So I emptied out all of my closets and cabinets daily… Eventually I just left all of the doors open and everything on the floor so that I could look in to any hiding spot in an instant…
But that feeling still persisted.
I stopped drinking because I was terrified of being attacked. I started sleeping less and less and when I had to sleep, I slept inside of my closet and barred the doors shut from the inside. I ate and drank only when I felt hungry and always with my back to a corner of the room or locked in my closet… But I could still feel eyes on me, feel His eyes on me the same way I had back at the park.
It was about a month later when I finally discovered my haven. The one place left that I didn’t feel watched. The stairwell of my building. I found that whenever I went down and back up the stars to get my groceries – as I’d long since stopped using the elevator – that I would have a brief respite from the feeling of being watched.
I started to spend all of my waking hours there, sat on one of the stairs without a care in the world. I only left them to eat and sleep and whenever I entered the building proper I would feel eyes on me almost immediately. But having those stairs to return to made my life almost bearable. It had been a long time since I had anywhere I felt safe, and like every place before it I kept waiting form the feeling of being watched to follow me into the stairwell…
But it never did.
For another month, I fell into a somewhat bearable rhythm. I’d wake up in my closet feeling watched, I’d eat in the corner of my kitchen feeling watched, and then I’d scurry off to the stairwell where I could blessedly feel alone – Especially near the top floors where the stairs were seldom used.
But all good things must come to an end and all that, and while I never did feel watched in the stairs, I did run out of money. Apartments and cars don’t pay for themselves after all, and while I managed a few months on the blood money from my last job it was finally time to get back to work.
In the months since I last logged on to the site, things had calmed down significantly and there were now plenty of jobs that didn’t break any of my rules… So I decided to go with a route that I’d done before a couple of times. A gun run. The seller always treated me to a drink or two at his bar and was also always well armed so I felt that it would be a nice and easy job that I could feel safe doing.
After confirming the job I closed my laptop, pulled on a fresh set of clothing, and headed out the door. I wanted to get this over and done with, and thankfully the feeling of being watched was rather light that day. I do admit, however, that I lingered in the stairwell for a bit before heading out. I wanted a bit of time alone before being out in the open for the first time in months.
Anyways, I hopped in my car after about thirty minutes of blessed stairwell time and headed to the bar. After about two hours of paranoid and twisting driving I managed to make it just on time and pulled my car into the alleyway behind the bar.
The owner greeted me with a smile as I got out of my car, “T, long time no see!” he said, his smile fading as I walked up and he got a better look at me. “Holy shit man, are you feeling okay?” he asked, genuine worry in the eyes of the large man.
“No… I’m pretty far from okay…” I said with an exhausted sigh. I could still feel the faintest hint of eyes on me even now, though I know that the owner wouldn’t let me be jumped at his bar. “It’s a long story,” I offered, realizing for the first time that it might be nice to actually tell someone what happened.
“Is that so.” he said with a hint of a smile and a shake of his head. “Well, hows about we get you a drink while the boys get ready to load up your car.” He offered in return, making me smile. “There’s always plenty of time for stories at my bar.” He said proudly.
“I’d like that…” I said with another exhausted sigh, managing to keep the smile up as he put an arm around me and lead me in the back door of the bar.
“Oh, by the way, how did you hold up during the bitcoin crash? I heard it hit a couple of transporters pretty hard.” he said, making me chuckle as we made our way through the kitchen.
“Funny you should mention that,” I said, making him raise an eyebrow, “because that’s how my long story star—” I began, only to stop short when I looked at the bar.
HE was siting there, sipping on a beer without a care in the world. He noticed me out of the corner of his eye and that same sickeningly sweet smile crept onto his face as his eyes met mine.
I froze. There was no way that this was a coincidence. There was no way that he just happened to be at this bar at this time.
I was broken from my trance by the bar owner waving his hand in front of my face and saying my name, “Hello? T, you alright?”
I quickly ducked back into the kitchen and started to hyperventilate. How did he know? How could he possibly have known that I would be here? Did he follow me?
“Did who follow you?” The owner’s voice brought me back to reality once again as I realized I’d been thinking out loud. His face was concerned, bordering on scared.
“How long has that guy been at the bar?” I asked, hoping that the owner knew who I was talking about.
“If you mean tall, thin, and creepy then about an hour… What is going on T?” He asked, as I slumped against the wall.
I started crying. I broke down and burst back into the bar only to see that Mr. Hide&Seek he was already gone. “I… I need to go. I need to get home!” I said, pushing past the owner and running to my car. He called after me, trying to get me to stay and explain what the hell was happening but I wasn’t listening. For all I know, Mr. Hide&Seek could be breaking in to my apartment already.
I drove straight home and threw open the door to my apartment. It had still been locked, but I wasn’t taking any chances. I grabbed a knife from the kitchen and checked everywhere. But he wasn’t there.
Then, my phone rang and scared the living hell out of me. I checked the number and gulped when I saw that it was blocked. I considered not answering but in the end I picked up the call.
“H-Hello?” I asked tentatively.
“T… What the hell happened at the bar?” a modulated voice rang through the speaker in my ear, making me wince. It was one of the site admins for sure.
I was silent for a moment before telling the admin everything. I couldn’t see the man, but I could feel a sudden change when I mentioned seeing Mr. Hide&Seek at the bar.
“T,” the admin began, a serious edge to his voice. “I need you to log in to the site… _Now_” he said, and something in me told me to listen. I booted up my laptop and hopped on to the site. As soon as I logged in a dialog appeared that I’d never seen before.
ADMIN would like to take control of this computer. Do you consent to this?’ With two buttons. One for yes. One for no.
I clicked yes and watched as my cursor began to move on it’s own. “Thank you T. This will only take a moment…” the admin said, a practiced calm in his voice as he downloaded several files and began to do… Something on my laptop.
A minute later a dialog box popped up that said, ‘Threat detected!’ and the admin sighed and his voice sharpened as he spoke. “T… You’ve been compromised. You’ve had a nasty piece of spyware installed on your machine, for about a month by the looks of things. It’s been recording your keystrokes and giving someone remote access to your camera…” the admin explained, making me gulp as I realized that all of my information was insecure.
“B-but, there’s no way! I haven’t download anything!” I said, making the admin mutter something as a bout of typing could be heard coming through the phone.
The admin’s voice was cold and calculated when he spoke next. “No… No you didn’t…” he said, making me gulp. “This software was installed via _USB_…” the admin said, making my heart nearly stop.
Hide&Seek had been in my home! He had been here without me noticing and put that program on my laptop. Even after all of my paranoia, he still found his way into my room without me knowing.
“I’m going to delete the program,” the admin said, and a few keystrokes later, “done… What the—”
As the admin deleted the program, thousands of windows began popping up on the screen of my laptop. All of them saying the same thing…
‘olly olly oxen free’
After that, I threw my laptop in the trash and got a new one as well as a new phone, sim card and all. I was taking no chances. I got all new accounts for everything and the admin told me he revoked Mr. Hide&Seek’s membership personally.
But I’m going to disappear all the same, I have a plane ticket to somewhere and my bags are already packed.
Don’t look for me, and if you ever start to feel like you’re being watched… It’s because you are.
submitted by rijento to DrCreepensVault [link] [comments]

My experience with kraken.com

Hello fellas, my name is B1t1nat0r and this is my story.
Back in 2017 I regularly bought Crypto on kraken. It was my go-to site for buying crypto. They seemed safe, competent and buying small amounts was not a hassle.
Now here we are. It's been nearly two months and I'm clueless. I can clearly detect every detail of my license. It worked everywhere else. How do you measure the blurriness of a photograph? Could I even have certainty if I bought a new camera?
I would be able to understand if there were clear but strict requirements. What really pisses me off is their contradictory statements, letting me wait for weeks just to find out that your picture has been rejected from the very beginning.
Do you have similar experiences? How did KYC go for you? Can you recommend different platforms with easier or no KYC? Bitcoin is now over 9000 and I'm pretty pissed.
Thank you for letting me share.
submitted by B1t1nat0r to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin

Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin

Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin
The Grayscale Investments cryptocurrency investment fund acquired every third bitcoin mined in the last 100 days. And in April, the fund bought 50% of all ETH mined. At the same time, despite the financial crisis and the fall of the cryptocurrency market in March, shares of Grayscale crypto funds in the first quarter of 2020 attracted record investments, which indicates a growing interest of institutional investors in the crypto industry. Why does the company need so many coins, what is its current position regarding the crypto market and what role does it play on it?

Grayscale Investors Believe in Bitcoin

Grayscale Investments, a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group (DCG), owner of the famous crypto media CoinDesk. The investment fund is the largest institutional holder of bitcoin. The company’s main product is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with which accredited investors can earn on bitcoin without actually owning it. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust tracks the price of bitcoin based on the TradeBlock XBX index.
Grayscale accumulates Bitcoin on an impressive scale. Reddit user under the nickname u/parakite noted that the fund added 60,762 BTC ($548.3 million on the day of publication) from February 7 to May 17. This is a third of the total number of bitcoins mined over the past three months.
The user made a table showing how the number of bitcoins in GBTC changed:
https://preview.redd.it/lb4nzuxvg9451.png?width=364&format=png&auto=webp&s=72b699f4b4c15a5b596e4030747c9ca574ee49f0
As you can see, the procurement rate of the MTC fund has been increasing since the end of 2019. GBTC has become more aggressive in its acquisitions since early April before the upcoming halving of the Bitcoin network. About 34% of the 60,762 MTC were purchased 17 days before the reduction in remuneration to the miners.
As of May 17, GBTC under management had a total of 343 954 BTC. This is 21% more than the 283,192 BTC held by the fund 100 days earlier. In value terms, the portfolio grew from $2.77 billion to $3.37 billion.
“Grayscale is just one of many, albeit the largest, ETFs that people use to buy bitcoin, not wanting to mess around with private keys and other problems,” commented u/parakite. — There is a demand for it. The supply is declining. Let’s see where we will be in 100 days.”
88% of Grayscale customers are institutional investors. Most likely, the sharp increase in the pace of the purchase of military-technical cooperation in addition to the last halving is due to the desire of investors to hedge risks during the developing crisis.

GBTC stock price over the past year, according to Yahoo.Finance. The price of shares (shares) of GBTC does not coincide with the price of the MTC, it depends on the mood of investors and can be traded with a premium or a significant discount. Usually it follows bitcoin, but sometimes the trends diverge. So, the difference between the July and current MTC rates is 20–30%, and between the same GBTC shares it is about 70%.

Grayscale also bought half of ETH mined in April

Aggressive Grayscale crypto purchases have recently been spotted with respect to ether. So, by April 24, the company had bought about 756 539 ETNs (accurate data are not publicly available) for its Ethereum Trust fund. This is about 48.4% of all 1.5 million coins mined since the beginning of this year. As a result, the company already owns 1% of all coins in circulation and only increases the pace of purchases. The first user to notice this was Reddit under the nickname u/nootropicat.
According to the latest quarterly report by Grayscale, the flow of investments in ETN reached a record level for the first three months of 2020 — $110 million. This is a very sharp increase, given that total investments in ETN for the previous two years amounted to $95.8 million. The total demand for the Ethereum fund grew over the quarter is almost 2.5 times compared with the fourth quarter of 2019.
From the beginning of the year until the end of April, the company issued 5.23 million shares of the fund at 0.09427052 ETN apiece.
At the same time, shares are traded with a premium of 420% relative to the current price of the coin — $92 against $17.70. That is, investors are willing to pay extra pretty much not to deal with cryptocurrency on their own.
Most likely, the increase in the rate of purchase of the coin is associated with the upcoming upgrade of the network to the state of Ethereum 2.0. It can take place at the end of July, but, most likely, it will happen not earlier than the end of the year. After the upgrade, the network will become more scalable and there will be the possibility of staking — validators will be able to receive passive income for providing their funds to confirm the blocks.
The crypto market, by the way, is also preparing for the transition of the ecosystem to a new stage. ETH has grown 55% since the crash in March, from $110 to $202 on the day of publication. At the end of April, CoinDesk drew attention to the increase in the number of long positions in ETH futures — this indicates expectations for further growth of the coin.

Last quarter — the most successful in the history of the company

In May, Grayscale released a report on the results of the first quarter of this year. “Despite the decline in risky assets this quarter, Grayscale’s assets continue to approach record highs, as does our share of the digital asset market,” the document says. And this despite the coronavirus pandemic, the global recession and the traditional cryptocurrency market volatility.
A record $503.7 million investment was raised in the first quarter. This is almost twice the previous quarterly maximum of $254 million in the third quarter of last year and accounts for 83% of the total capital of $1.07 billion raised for the entire 2019. New investors accounted for $160 million of raised funds. The main products of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust raised $388.9 million and $110 million, respectively. It is noteworthy that the company reduced the premium on stocks of funds relative to the price of assets.
88% of investments came from institutional investors, among which hedge funds prevail; 5% — from accredited individuals, 4% — from pension accounts (yes, pension funds are extremely conservative in nature, but also invest in bitcoin against the background of a decrease in the profitability of other assets); 3% came from family offices, and 38% of customers invested in several products at once.
It is noteworthy that two years ago the share of institutional investors was about 50% — it is obvious that they no longer consider bitcoin as something criminal. “Many of our investors see digital assets as medium and long-term investment opportunities and the main component of their investment portfolios. Quarterly inflows doubled to $ 503.7 million, demonstrating that demand is reaching new peak levels even in conditions of “risk reduction”, the document says.

Today, more than 46.5% of the inflow of funds was attracted from multi-strategic investors. Crypto investors accounted for only 11.2% of the inflow, according to the report.
Grayscale currently operates ten cryptocurrency investment products targeted at institutional investors. They cover PTS, ETN, ETS, BCH, ZEC, XRP, LTC, ZEN, XLM. The value of the assets under his management is more than $3.8 billion. GBTC is the most demanded product, most investors invest in it and it takes about 1.7% of the total volume of circulating bitcoins.

Aggregate quarterly flow of funds to different Grayscale products. Pay attention to the growing share of investors diversifying portfolios with products tied to altcoins.
Since January of this year, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has been registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to it, the company provides quarterly and annual reports in the form of 10-K. The status makes it possible to sell shares of a trust in the secondary market after 6 months, rather than 12, as before, and also increases the confidence of conservative investors. Other products comply with OTCQX reporting standards in the OTC market and are approved by the US Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FINRA) for public offering.

Amount of assets managed by Grayscale as of May 20, 2020.
It is noteworthy that the news about the success of Grayscale comes amid news of how panicky investors in traditional assets are fleeing from market turmoil. So, the largest fund managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors — lost several trillion in capitalization of their assets, and BlackRock in the first quarter for the first time in five years saw a net outflow of funds from its long-term investment products.

Bitcoin is the best asset for hedging portfolios in crisis

At the end of April, Grayscale also released a separate report on the analysis of the impact of regulators during a pandemic and the crisis caused by it and how it affected the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market as a whole.
The document said fiat currencies are at risk of devaluation as central banks print more and more money. Even the US dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency, risks being devalued if the US Federal Reserve continues to print the currency in trillions. A decrease in interest rates to zero and negative values deprives government bonds of the status of “safe haven” during the crisis.
Therefore, investors are trying to diversify their portfolios with alternative instruments. Cryptocurrencies are the best choice for this, according to the authors of the report. The text emphasizes the historical significance of gold as a global standard, but it is noted that in the modern digital world it is becoming increasingly burdensome for investors — it has complex logistics. Bitcoin seems resistant to the problems that other assets face. Therefore, in times of economic uncertainty, the first cryptocurrency is one of the best assets that investors can use to hedge their portfolios. The coin performs better than any other asset, including fiat currencies, government bonds, and traditional commodities like gold. The authors of the report emphasize that Bitcoin has already begun to show signs of becoming a protective asset.
At the same time, the company believes that bitcoin is an excellent asset not only in times of crisis. So, in December 2019, Managing Director of Grayscale Investments Michael Sonnenshine said that the company expects an influx of investments in bitcoin after the transfer of $68 trillion of savings between generations in the next 25 years. Today, this capital is invested in traditional assets, but a significant part of these wealth millennials will invest in cryptocurrencies. Already, according to him, investments in GBTC are among the five most popular among young people, ahead of, for example, investments in Microsoft and Netflix.

Finally

The unprecedented financial measures taken by the US Federal Reserve, as well as the worsening recession, are forcing even the most conservative investors to rethink their current strategies and portfolio composition. Many of them are increasingly beginning to appreciate the fixed emission and non-correlation of Bitcoin — it is becoming a tool for risk diversification. Growing institutional interest is driving the acceleration of coin prices.
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submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]

[Part - 39] Large college ebooks/eTextbooks thread for cheap rates [$4 to $25]

  1. Spanish Decorative Ironwork by Luis Labarta
  2. Decorative Iron and Metalwork by R. Goodwin-Smith
  3. 1920s Fashions from B. Altman & Company by Altman & Co.
  4. "Precious Stones by Vol. 1" by Max Bauer
  5. Old-Time Men and Women Vignettes in Full Color by Carol Belanger Grafton
  6. The Book of Diamonds by Joan Y. Dickinson
  7. Decorative Antique Ironwork by Henry R. d’Allemagne
  8. Those Were the Days: Weird and Wacky Ads of Yesteryear by Floyd Clymer
  9. A Short History of Costume & Armour by Francis M. Kelly
  10. The History of Underclothes by C. Willett Cunnington
  11. Iron Horses by E. P. Alexander
  12. Early American Decorating Techniques by Mariette Paine Slayton
  13. "Ancient Egyptian by Mesopotamian & Persian Costume" by Mary G. Houston
  14. Men's Fashion Illustrations from the Turn of the Century by Mitchell Co.
  15. American Silversmiths and Their Marks by Stephen G. C. Ensko
  16. Ornamental Ironwork by A. Durenne
  17. The Corset and the Crinoline by W. B. Lord
  18. Ancient Carpenters' Tools by Henry C. Mercer
  19. Victorian Fashion in America by Kristina Harris
  20. Full-Color Sourcebook of French Fashion by Pauquet Frères
  21. Rings for the Finger by George Frederick Kunz
  22. Whitman Encyclopedia of U.S. Paper Money by Q. David Bowers
  23. Making Costume Jewelry: An Easy & Complete Step by Step Guide by Janet Evans
  24. Old Car Detective by Bill Sherk
  25. Bicycles by Archibald Sharp
  26. Early Motorcycles by Victor W. Page
  27. 80 Godey's Full-Color Fashion Plates by JoAnne Olian
  28. The Art Nouveau Style by Stephan Tschudi Madsen
  29. Western World Costume by Carolyn G. Bradley
  30. Everyday Fashions of the Twenties by Stella Blum
  31. "Victorian Fashions and Costumes from Harper's Bazar by 1867-1898" by Stella Blum
  32. "Victorian and Edwardian Fashions from ""La Mode Illustrée""" by JoAnne Olian
  33. Chinese Domestic Furniture in Photographs and Measured Drawings by Gustav Ecke
  34. Art Deco Decorative Ironwork by Henri Clouzot
  35. Pictorial Encyclopedia of Historic Costume by Albert Kretschmer
  36. Children's Fashions 1900-1950 As Pictured in Sears Catalogs by JoAnne Olian
  37. Chinese Snuff Bottles by Lilla S. Perry
  38. 305 Authentic Art Nouveau Jewelry Designs by Maurice Dufrène
  39. The Young Sea Officer's Sheet Anchor by Darcy Lever
  40. Art Nouveau Decorative Ironwork by Theodore Menten
  41. Aviation Firsts by Joshua Stoff
  42. Victorian Fashions by Carol Belanger Grafton
  43. Authentic Art Deco Jewelry Designs by Franco Deboni
  44. Picture History of World War II American Aircraft Production by Joshua Stoff
  45. Barn Quilts and the American Quilt Trail Movement by Suzi Parron; Donna Sue Groves
  46. Japanese Things by Basil Hall Chamberlain
  47. Collecting Toy Soldiers in the 21st Century by James Opie
  48. "The Watch Jobber's Handybook - A Practical Manual on Cleaning by Repairing and Adjusting: Embracing Information on the Tools by Materials Appliances and Processes Employed in Watchwork" by Paul N. Hasluck
  49. Japanese Costume & Makers by Helen Minnich
  50. Sword Beach by Tim Kilvert-Jones
  51. Watchmakers and Clockmakers of the World by G. H. Baillie
  52. Japanese & Oriental Ceramic by Hazel H. Gorham
  53. The Inner Workings of a Watch - A Simple Guide for Enthusiasts of Clockwork Mechanisms by Anon
  54. Batik Art & Craft by Ila Keller
  55. Arts of Japan by Hugo Munsterberg
  56. Smoke Rings and Roundelays - Pipes and Tobacco by Wilfred Partington
  57. Secrets of an Art Dealer by James Henry Duveen
  58. The Bells of Russia by Edward V. Williams
  59. "Watch Repairing by Cleaning and Adjusting - A Practical Handbook" by F. J. Garrard
  60. Ningyo by Alan Scott Pate
  61. Illustrated Handbook of Western European Costume by Iris Brooke
  62. The Arts of the Sailor by Hervey Garrett Smith
  63. The Cabinet-Maker and Upholsterer's Guide by George Hepplewhite
  64. Antiques on the Cheap by James W. McKenzie
  65. Everyday Fashions of the Fifties As Pictured in Sears Catalogs by JoAnne Olian
  66. How We Invented the Airplane by Orville Wright
  67. A History of Costume by Carl Köhler
  68. Abraham Lincoln: Beyond the Icon by Fred Reed
  69. Guns on the Early Frontiers by Carl P. Russell
  70. Classic Wicker Furniture by Heywood Brothers
  71. Victorian Architectural Sheet-Metal Ornaments by Bakewell
  72. Badges and Uniforms of the Royal Air Force by Malcolm Hobart
  73. Trades and Crafts of Old Japan by Eric A. Kaemmerer
  74. "Armoured Warfare in Northwest Europe by 1944–45" by Anthony Tucker-Jones
  75. "Blood by Bilge and Iron Balls" by Alan Abbey
  76. "British Army by 2008–2009" by Charles Heyman
  77. Boesinghe by Stephen McGreal
  78. Painted Fans of Japan by Reiko Chiba
  79. "Illustrated Mission Furniture Catalog by 1912-13" by Come-Packt Furniture Co.
  80. Costume Through the Ages by Erhard Klepper
  81. Decorative French Ironwork Designs by Louis Blanc
  82. The Book of the Pearl by George Frederick Kunz
  83. Transatlantic Flight by Joshua Stoff
  84. Turn-of-the-Century Farm Tools and Implements by Henderson & Co.
  85. The Mode in Hats and Headdress by R. Turner Wilcox
  86. Victorian and Edwardian Fashion by Alison Gernsheim
  87. Treasury of Ironwork Designs by Carol Belanger Grafton
  88. Old-Time Children Vignettes in Full Color by Carol Belanger Grafton
  89. English Children's Costume 1775-1920 by Iris Brooke
  90. Illustrated Encyclopedia of World Railway Locomotives by P. Ransome-Wallis
  91. Making Authentic Pennsylvania Dutch Furniture by John G. Shea
  92. A Guide Book of United States Coins 2015 by R.S. Yeoman
  93. Corrosion and Conservation of Cultural Heritage Metallic Artefacts by "Dillmann by P; Watkinson by D; Angelini by E; Adriaens by A"
  94. Balinese Masks by Judy Slattum
  95. Collecting: An Unruly Passion by Werner Muensterberger
  96. Nyonya Kebaya by Datin Seri
  97. China Home by Michael Freeman
  98. Things Chinese by Ronald G. Knapp
  99. African Pottery Roulettes Past and Present by Anne Haour
  100. Collecting Japanese Antiques by Alistair Seton
  101. An Introduction to Tudor and Elizabethan Styles of Furniture by Arthur De Bles
  102. Encyclopedia of U.S. Gold Coins 1795-1934 by Jeff Garrett
  103. Surviving Examples of Early Plate Armour (1300-1430) by Douglas Strong
  104. 100 Greatest American Currency Notes by Q. David Bowers
  105. Obsolete Paper Money Issued by Banks in the United States 1782-1866 by Q. David Bowers
  106. Numismatic Art in America by Cornelius Vermeule
  107. A Guide Book of United States Paper Money by Arthur L. Friedberg
  108. American Gold and Platinum Eagles by Edmund C. Moy
  109. Suggestions For The Cleaning And Management Of Percussion Arms by George Lovell
  110. The Pocket Watch - The History and Stories Surrounding the First Pocket Watches by Anon
  111. "French Provincial Furniture And Accessories - For Interiors And Gardens - Lamps by Clocks by Faience by Porcelain by Tole And Other Metalwork by Garden Fountains by Sculptures And Other Ornaments" by Renee Guibal
  112. Treasures Of Canada by Alan Samuel
  113. Practical Watch Repairing by Donald De Carle
  114. A Guide Book of Lincoln Cents by Q David Bowers
  115. A Guide Book of Double Eagle Gold Coins by Q. David Bowers
  116. History of the United States Mint and Its Coinage by David W. Lange
  117. Grading Coins by Photographs by Q. David Bowers
  118. Coin Collecting: A Beginners Guide to the World of Coins by Kenneth Bressett
  119. "America's Money by America's Story" by Richard Doty
  120. Money and Exchange in Canada to 1900 by A.B. McCullough
  121. Toons in Toyland by Tim Hollis
  122. Victorian Jewellery by Margaret Flower
  123. Art Glass Nouveau by Ray Grover; Lee Grover
  124. British Clocks And Clockmakers by Kenneth Ullyett
  125. The Coronation Chair and Stone of Scone by Warwick Rodwell
  126. Guns of the Old West by Charles Edward Chapel
  127. Arts of China by "Hugo Munsterberg by Ph.D."
  128. A Guide Book of United States Coins 2014 by R.S.Yeoman
  129. "The Furniture of John Shearer by 1790-1820" by Elizabeth A. Davison
  130. Gallery of Late-Seventeenth-Century Costume by Caspar Luyken
  131. Ancient European Costume and Fashion by Herbert Norris
  132. A Guide Book of United States Paper Money by Arthur L. Friedberg
  133. A Guide Book of Flying Eagle and Indian Head Cents by Richard Snow
  134. A Guide Book of the Official Red Book of United States Coin by Frank J. Colletti
  135. American Gold and Platinum Eagles by Edmund C. Moy
  136. 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins by Scott Schechter
  137. Suggestions For The Cleaning And Management Of Percussion Arms by George Lovell
  138. Encyclopedia of U.S. Gold Coins 1795-1934 by Jeff Garrett
  139. Surviving Examples of Early Plate Armour (1300-1430) by Douglas Strong
  140. "Interesting Details on Antique American Furniture - Notes on Carving by Legs by Fittings and Upholstery" by Edgar G. Miller
  141. Art Work In Gold In Silver by Henry B. Wheatley
  142. Curiosities of the Mechanical Details in Watches by Anon
  143. Pictures From a Distant Country by Richard Doty
  144. Money and Exchange in Canada to 1900 by A.B. McCullough
  145. Snuff - Yesterday And Today by C. W. Shepherd
  146. Furniture of the Renaissance to the Baroque - A Treatise on the Furniture from Around Europe in this Period by Peter Philp
  147. Amulets by Flinders Petrie
  148. The Preservation of Leather Bookbindings by H. J. Plenderleith
  149. Automotive Milestones by Robert L. Norton
  150. Preserving History by Julie Hendricksen
  151. The Masterpieces of Thomas Chippendale - A Short Biography and His Famous Catalogue by Arthur Hayden
  152. "Catalogue of Rare Old Violins by Violas And Violoncellos - Also Bows of Rare Makes" by Anon
  153. "Antique Clock Dials by Hands by and Corner Pieces from Long Case and Lantern Clocks" by Anon
  154. Fabulous Finds by J. Lee Drexler; James R. Cohen
  155. Popular Gemology by Richard M. Pearl
  156. Manuscript Miscellanies in Early Modern England by Joshua Eckhardt; Daniel Starza Smith
  157. "Beautiful Examples of American Antique Sideboards and Kitchen Furniture - Including Sideboards from Hepplewhite by Sheraton and in the Empire Style" by Edgar J. Miller
  158. "American Military Shoulder Arms by Volume III" by George D. Moller
  159. Clock Cleaning and Repairing - With a Chapter on Adding Quarter-Chimes to a Grandfather Clock by Bernard E. Jones
  160. Whitman Encyclopedia of Obsolete Paper Money by Q. David Bowers
  161. "The Official Red Book: A Guide Book of United States Coins by Professional Edition" by R.S. Yeoman
  162. United States Gold Counterfeit Detection Guide by Bill Favaz
  163. A Guide Book of Buffalo and Jefferson Nickels by Q. David Bowers
  164. The Art of Duelling by A Traveller
  165. History of the United States Mint and Its Coinage by David W. Lange
  166. Grading Coins by Photographs by Q. David Bowers
  167. The Tools and Materials of the Watchmaker - A Guide to the Amateur Watchmaker's Toolkit - Including How to make your own Tools by Anon
  168. A Guide Book of Franklin and Kennedy Half Dollars by Rick Tomaska
  169. A Guide Book of United States Commemorative Coins by Q. David Bowers
  170. A Guide Book of Shield and Liberty Head Nickels by Q. David Bowers
  171. Abraham Lincoln: The Image of His Greatness by Fred Reed
  172. A Guide Book of United States Type Coins by Q. David Bowers
  173. United States Currency by Kenneth Bressett
  174. "Conserving by Preserving by and Restoring Your Heritage" by Kennis Kim
  175. The History of Quilts and Patchwork Worldwide with Photographic Reproductions by Shiela Betterton
  176. A Guide Book of Morgan Silver Dollars by Q. David Bowers
  177. A Guide Book of Peace Dollars by Roger W. Burdette
  178. 100 Greatest American Currency Notes by Q. David Bowers
  179. Obsolete Paper Money Issued by Banks in the United States 1782-1866 by Q. David Bowers
  180. Duesenberg by Dennis Adler
  181. Vintage Wristwatches by Reyne Haines
  182. The Cartiers by Francesca Cartier Brickell
  183. American & British 410 Shotguns by Ronald Gabriel
  184. Art Glass Identification & Price Guide by "John Shuman by III"
  185. Warman's Lalique by Mark Moran
  186. Gun Digest Book of Modern Gun Values by Richard Allen Mann; Jerry Lee
  187. Hot Wheels Variations by Michael Zarnock
  188. 50 Famous Firearms You've Got to Own by Rick Hacker
  189. Antique Trader Book Collector's Price Guide by Richard Russell
  190. Summer at Tiffany by Marjorie Hart
  191. Coin of the Year by Donald Scarinci
  192. Warman's World War II Collectibles by Michael E. Haskew
  193. Standard Catalog of U.S. Military Vehicles - 2nd Edition by David Doyle
  194. The Ultimate Guide to G.I. Joe 1982-1994 by Mark Bellomo
  195. Fantastic Finds by Eric Bradley
  196. Warman's Tools Field Guide by Clarence Blanchard
  197. The Ultimate Guide to G.I. Joe 1982-1994 by Mark Bellomo
  198. Gun Digest Browning Semi-Auto 22 Assembly/Disassembly Instructions by Kevin Muramatsu
  199. Just 30s by Angelo Van Boggart
  200. The Gun Digest Book of Guns for Personal Defense by Kevin Michalowski
  201. Grind a Blade the R.J. Martin Way: Knife Sharpening Techniques & Tips by Joe Kertzman
  202. Warman's Antiques & Collectibles 2016 Price Guide by Noah Fleisher
  203. Warman's G.I. Joe Field Guide by Kp Books
  204. Carriages and Sleighs by "Lawrence by Bradley"
  205. Warman's Clocks Field Guide by KP Staff
  206. 2012 U.S. Coin Digest: Commemoratives 1892-1954 by David C. Harper
  207. "Standard Catalog of World Coins by 1601-1700" by George S. Cuhaj
  208. 2012 U.S. Coin Digest: U.S. Territorial Gold by David C. Harper
  209. Warman's Jewelry Field Guide by Kathy Flood
  210. Warman's Civil War Collectibles Identification and Price Guide by Russell E. Lewis
  211. 2012 U.S. Coin Digest: Quarters by David C. Harper
  212. Standard Catalog of Civil War Firearms by John F. Graf
  213. The Gun Digest Book of Firearms Assembly/Disassembly Part II - Revolvers by J B Wood
  214. Antique Trader Cameras and Photographica Price Guide by Kyle Husfloen
  215. 2013 U.S. Coin Digest by David C. Harper
  216. Warman's Tobacco Collectibles by Mark Moran
  217. "Things That Were by Things That Are by and Things That May Become" by Baby Professor
  218. Purrrfect Toys: Kids Love to Cuddle by Baby Professor
  219. 2012 U.S. Coin Digest: Gold Coins by David C. Harper
  220. Standard Catalog of Vintage Baseball Cards by Sports Collectors Digest
  221. Warman's Watches Field Guide by Reyne Haines
  222. "Collecting World Coins by 1901-Present" by George S. Cuhaj
  223. Warman's Americana & Collectibles by Ellen Schroy
  224. Public Enemy #1 - the Infamous History of John Dillinger by Hotz Mark
  225. Warman's Kitschy Kitchen Collectibles Field Guide by Brian Alexander
  226. The Instant Coin Collector by Arlyn Sieber
  227. Fishing Collectibles by Russell Lewis
  228. Standard Catalog of United States Paper Money by George S. Cuhaj
  229. Game Inventor's Guidebook by Brian Tinsman
  230. Warman's Beatles Field Guide by Tim Neely
  231. 2012 U.S. Coin Digest: Half Dollars by David C. Harper
  232. 2011 Standard Catalog of World Coins 1901-2000 by George S. Cuhaj
  233. 2016 Standard Catalog of World Coins 2001-Date by George S. Cuhaj
  234. Warman's Hot Wheels Field Guide by Michael Zarnock
  235. "Texas Furniture by Volume One" by Lonn Taylor
  236. Warman's Modern US Coins Field Guide by Arlyn Sieber
  237. Warman's U.S. Coins & Currency Field Guide by Arlyn G. Sieber
  238. Manuscript Miscellanies in Early Modern England by "Starza Smith by Daniel by Dr"
  239. Warman's World Coins Field Guide by Arlyn G. Sieber
  240. Shooter's Bible Guide to Combat Handguns by Robert A. Sadowski
  241. Shooter's Bible Guide to Knives by Roger Eckstine
  242. Extreme Bricks by Sarah Herman
  243. 1001 Hunting Tips by Lamar Underwood; Nate Matthews
  244. The Ultimate Guide to Butchering Deer by John Weiss
  245. Taking Your First Shot by Lynne Finch
  246. "The Watch & Clock Makers' Handbook by Dictionary by and Guide" by F. J. Britten
  247. Do-It-Yourself Gun Repair by Edward A. Matunas
  248. "William Spratling by His Life and Art" by Taylor D. Littleton
  249. The Little Red Book of Hunter's Wisdom by Jay Cassell; Peter J. Fiduccia
  250. Practical Watch Repairing by Donald de Carle
  251. The Cigarette Book by Chris Harrald; Fletcher Watkins
  252. Guide to Taxidermy by Charles K. Reed; Chester A. Reed
  253. Hunting Bears by Kathy Etling
  254. "Gun Trader's Guide by Thirty-Fifth Edition" by Stephen D. Carpenteri
  255. The Pocket Deer Hunting Guide by Stephen D. Carpenteri
  256. The Future of the Gun by Frank Miniter
  257. Whitetail Tactics by Peter Fiduccia
  258. Mission Furniture by H. H. Windsor
  259. The Bowhunter's Field Manual by Judd Cooney
  260. Bowhunting's Superbucks by Kathy Etling
  261. Elementary Gunsmithing by Perry D. Frazer
  262. Shoot by Julie Golob
  263. Turning for Home by Mike Gaddis
  264. The Best Hunting Stories Ever Told by Jay Cassell
  265. Kitchen Things by Richard Snodgrass
  266. Model Engine-Making by J. Pocock
  267. The 21st Century Sniper by Brandon Webb
  268. Larousse Wine by David Cobbold; Sebastian Durand-Viel
  269. Gun Trader's Guide to Handguns by Robert A. Sadowski
  270. The Little Guide to Vintage Shopping by Melody Fortier
  271. Viva la Pizza! by Scott Wiener
  272. The GH Kaestlin Collection of Imperial Russian and Zemstvo Stamps by Thomas Lera; Leon Finik
  273. Carriage Terminology by Don H. Berkebile
  274. Every Stamp Tells a Story by Cheryl Ganz
  275. The Ultimate Cigar Book by Richard Carleton Hacker
  276. Black Ops Bricks by Nick Grant
  277. Deer Hunter's & Land Manager's Pocket Reference by J. Wayne Fears
  278. Frocking Life by BillyBoy*
  279. Welsh Yeomanry at War by Steven John
  280. Tactical Gun Digest by Corey Graff
  281. "Shooter's Bible by 109th Edition" by Jay Cassell
  282. United States Martial Pistols and Revolvers by Arcadi Gluckman
  283. Guns of the New West by David Chicoine
  284. Hugh Johnson's Pocket Wine Book 2018 by Hugh Johnson
  285. "Adventure (July by 1916)" by J. Allan Dunn
  286. Great Hunting Rifles by Terry Wieland
  287. "Let's Go Camping! From cabins to caravans by crochet your own camping Scenes" by Kate Bruning
  288. From the Oven to the Table by Diana Henry
  289. Jaguar by Zef Enault; Nicolas Heidet
  290. Hugh Johnson's Pocket Wine 2020 by Hugh Johnson
  291. The Truth About Firearms and Concealed Carry by Daniel R. Engel DE
  292. Hugh Johnson's Pocket Wine Book 2019 by Hugh Johnson
  293. Hugh Johnson on Wine by Hugh Johnson
  294. The 34-Ton Bat by Steve Rushin
  295. Toast & Marmalade by Emma Bridgewater
  296. Books by Larry McMurtry
  297. Andrea Immer's Wine Buying Guide for Everyone by Andrea Immer
  298. Light of India by Warren Dotz
  299. Postcards by Jason Rodriguez
  300. "The Watch Adjuster's Manual - A Practical Guide for the Watch and Chronometer Adjuster in Making by Springing by Timing and Adjusting for Isochronism by Positions and Temperatures" by Charles Edgar Fritts
submitted by TailExpert to CollegeTextbook [link] [comments]

Bitoffer Institute: Upcoming ‘Eth 2.0’ Upgrade! ETF Volume Wins Spot Trading In Value.

Bitoffer Institute: Upcoming ‘Eth 2.0’ Upgrade! ETF Volume Wins Spot Trading In Value.
Since the Bitcoin halving occurred on May 12, markets have swarmed to bitcoin which resulted in significant volatility crush to the market and the various indicators of capital influx, with an amplitude of more than 10%, and futures liquidation achieved $ 1billion at the halving night. While the public was looking forward to the increase in this Bitcoin halving, there was a sharp callback and the market was stunned. Now the opportunity has passed, can market recover after a setback?

https://preview.redd.it/7qsmhm7klvy41.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=c73818b171430aafbe8ea6d1ed38f4df1cb7a99d
With truism, 2020 is the halving year. When everyone turned their attention to BTC, BCH, BSV, and other currencies, they may forget the ETH. As the king of the public blockchain, ETH will usher in 2.0 super upgrade version in 2020. From the POW mechanism to the POS, the time of transaction confirmation is greatly shortened, which will be reduced from the original minute to 3–6 seconds. The impact is no less than Bitcoin halving. Since the beginning of the year, the transaction volume of ETH has exploded and institutional funds have flowed into the first layout. However, the current price of ETH is less than $200. Under these favorable blessings, the ETH is expected to usher in a super bull market!

https://preview.redd.it/94icttzllvy41.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13556a95090e96bc1cba17447698c345bf68c533
So how does the upgrade of Ethereum boost confidence in the market? The 2.0 upgrade, promises higher transaction throughput and a new security model under proof-of-stake (PoS). Eth 2.0 has been in development since 2015 but had failed to gain traction due to the highly technical expertise required to pursue it, until now. First of all, upgrading itself means improvement of technology and optimization of the original system, which is such a benefit in concept; secondly, the ETH2.0 version is the replacement of the original one, and with the POS mechanism introduced, it will gradually replace The old POW which indicates that there will be a large number of ETH holders who will pledge their holdings to obtain the identity of the verifier in order to obtain the opportunities of block rewards. Then the ETH in circulation will reduce and may cause a sharp rise in demand, which will lead to deflation, and the price of the currency will naturally be bullish. In the end, ETH will usher in two block forks. On the occasion, the amount of distribution will be reduced by ten times following with a reduction of supply, and eventually, bring the increase of the upgrade release demand. Those two combinations will lead to the arrival of a super bull market for ETH.
The capital attack routing is gradually pellucid with the coming Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. Since the sudden plunge under the influence of the 3.12 epidemic, the bottom has been quickly built and pave the way for the future rise. The minimum rebound of ETH from the $89 contraction to the current $200 position showing the strong bids among the market. What’s more, with a sudden callback showed up when the price has more than doubled while there is no phenomenon of strong volume, indicating that most people are still held with unwavering and steadily.
According to official Bitoffer statistics, under the stimulated by variable bull market conditions, ETH has climbed as high as 125% in the past three months since the Ethereum ETF has risen about 200% over the same period. In the past three months, the 24-hour trading volume of ETH has achieved around 7 billion US dollars and daily turnover of ETF reached $1billion. It shows the year-over-year growth compared with the same period last year with a daily upward trend. Being the world’s largest trading platform, Bitoffer owns more than 80% Ethereum ETF share accounted within the market. Therefore, in the upsurge of Ethereum ETF fund transactions gradually catching up with the ETH itself, why is Bitoffer’s Ethereum ETF sought-after in the market?

https://preview.redd.it/f1h9ssfnlvy41.png?width=1773&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ac410360fe97a0525286dbaa79b302370fca9b4
The advantages including :
  1. Support buying long and short, no deposit, and no fees with open-end funds purchase function!
  2. Automatic position adjustment mechanism with at least 3X as high 15X profit!
  3. Simplicity of trading, purchase and redemption both with USDT!
  4. No limitation of the trading period, no liquidation mechanism and can trading anytime with anywhere!
Let’s calculate with $200 of ETH
  1. 2.0 super version upgrade, price X2 theoretically
  2. Amount of distribution reduced by 10 times, price X2 theoretically
  3. ETH price will be: $200*4=$800 (expected price after upgrade
The comparison of profits between holding the currency and the ETF:
  1. ETH earns 4X return
  2. Purchasing the Ethereum ETF, the return will be started at 12X and as high 30X (Automatic position adjustment plus funds compounding)
There’s no doubt that purchasing the Ethereum ETF will be a better choice when comparing the profits gain. It’s worth noting that Bitoffer will bring out the most amazing ETH options and be prepared for the coming super bull-market.
submitted by Bitoffer_Official to BitOffer_Official [link] [comments]

Oof!

For Trading March 17th
Markets Halted Again FED Move Fails to Help
Yields Steady
Today’s market was pounded from the start with the futures overnight falling to down “the limit” prior to our open and were halted almost immediately. We came close to the second halt, but the market stabilized, sort of, and traded without much enthusiasm until Mr. Trump started to speak, and that took us to a new low of the day at -1050 or so. For a while it looked as if we’d also see a new all-time loss on the NASDAQ 2hich looked like it would go -1000, but rallied a touch to close -970.29 (12.32%), DJIA -2997.11 (12.93%), SP 500 -324.90 (11.98%), the Russell -171.66 (14.2%) and the DJ Transports -916.76 (11.55%). Market internals were not quite as bad as the decline would project with NYSE A/D 24:1 and NASDAQ 11:1, but the DJIA was a debacle with all stocks lower and the biggest losers being UNH -317DPs, HD-275, BA -274, AAPL -242, MCD-190, V -162, and MSFT -158. In fact, 10 of the 30 were down triple digits while only 1, WBA was down a single digit. The Fed’s dramatic 1% rate cut down to .25% did little to calm fears as did their open market infusions during the day. The White House did little to engender any confidence, and their lack of any cohesive fiscal plans left the futures “limit down” from early last evening right up to the open, which lasted only a minute, literally, before level 1 circuit breakers halted the market for 15 minutes. We came very close to the second breakers at -13%, but the market seemed to calm down a bit and while trading included more forced liquidation, but the decline was stopped at -2798 by 10:00 (including the 15 minute halt) and we rallied until topping out at 11:30 at -1417. The rest of the day was uneventful until Trump started speaking and we sold off into the close with a new point loss record. Briefing.com listed NO STRONG groups for the 3rd time in 3 days with the weakest including Info tech, financials, consumer discretionary, materials, real estate and of course, energy.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: I’m not sure that there is really any point to listing all the names and declines here so I’m just going to hit the groups and highlight any outstanding issues. But the main characteristic of this market is forced liquidation. Whether for margin calls, or recently new investors throwing in the towel and leaving the market, it’s pretty extreme. As I’ve said here before, the rallies in a bear market can be very deceptive. Sharp and quick and with high volume, sucking you back in because everyone wants to believe the turn is here.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with most down nearly 10% and the only multipoint gainer being REGN +4.45. On the downside we had BIIB -21.71, ABBV -9.06 (10.16%), ISRG -66.69 (14.16%), MYL +.13, TEVA -.99 (11.79%), VRTX -21.09 (9.55%), BHC -3.48 (18.51%), INCY -2.34, ICPT -16.81 (23.41%), LABU -8.10 (33.37%) and IBB $95.90 -7.78 (7.5%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again and it’s almost a waste to discuss the group, which is severely broken with TLRY, a former $300 stock that has fallen for 14 of the last 16 days from $20 to close today $3.05 -.875 (21.74%). Even the medical company CURLF was $3.20 -.48 (12.83%) and KERN the compliance software $4.16 -.91 (17.95%) and MJ $9.54 -.80 (7.74%).
DEFENSE: was SHARPLY LOWER with most down double digits LMT -33.08, RTN -16.29, GD -12.94, TXT -2.22, UTX -13.37, NOC -31.00, BWXT -3.79, TDY -37.18, and ITA $134.25 -23.12 (14.69%).
RETAIL was LOWER with all down double-digit percentages. M -1.16 (14.45%), JWN -4.40 (20.38%), and on the brand side, TPR (COACH) -4.23 (26.06%), and CPRI (KORS), -4.27 (30.65%) and XRT $28.66 -4.08 (12.46%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with this group the highlight of the crowded trade problems. GOOGL – 129.27, AMZN -40, AAPL -27.97 (10%), FB -21.28 (12.5%), NFLX-30.30 (after making a 52-wk high @393, 10 days ago and 95 higher), NVDA -34.94, IBM -5.71, TSLA -93.62, BABA -12.41, BIDU -8.84, BA -37.34, CAT -2.66, DIS -5.41, and XLK $72.56 -11.63 (13.81%).
FINANCIALS were SHARPLY LOWER with the market and the FEDs big rate cut didn’t seem to help. GS –18.60, JPM -13.16, BAC -3.28, MS -4.66 (after Cramer “sanctioned the purchase” last Tuesday at $37 ($6 ago), C -8.79, PNC -17.01, AIG -3.44, TRV -20.94 (19.49%), AXP -8.67, and XLF $20.35 -2.70 (11.71%).
OIL, $28.70 -3.04 The stocks were LOWER with the price of Oil trying to hold $30.00 initially but turning back down and breaking $29.00. This puts it back near the 2016 lows just under $27.00. XLE finished $27.81 -4.38 (13.61%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,486.50 -30.20. After the overnight rally on the Fed news the Gold fell along with the S&P, and other indexes. Gold is clearly suffering through liquidation like the rest of the market, but the FED repo program should stoke the inflation fires, and any bounce in stocks will help.
BITCOIN: closed $4930 -400. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $4390, and for the first time in days did not make a new recent low. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $5.44 -.73 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Crypto Market Below $200 Billion, Bitcoin Falling To Sub-$7,000 Levels

Crypto Market Below $200 Billion, Bitcoin Falling To Sub-$7,000 Levels

If Bitcoin Fails To Keep Its Current Levels, The Crypto Market May Experience Another Steep Downfall
What seemed a week of upwards momentum for the crypto sector vanished in the past 24 hours, as Bitcoin suffered from a massive price hit. The leading cryptocurrency to date saw an almost $200-per-minute slump, forcing the market to retreat below $200 billion total capitalization.
Apart from Bitcoin, which almost deleted its gains from the start of the week, other crypto projects felt the same downwards push. Ethereum (ETH) lost 7% off its price, currently trading at $159,20 despite a weekly high of $172.
Ripple (XRP) fell with 7% pricewise, shaking hands around $0.1886. The third-largest cryptocurrency almost managed to mitigate the massive price drop due to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, reaching levels of $0.203868. The rest of the top-100 chart is almost entirely in the red, with projects losing 2-10% of their gains from the past week. The stablecoin realm managed to record increased trading volumes, mainly due to outflow from holding Bitcoin.
Crypto traders noted that Bitcoin’s $6,900 trading level is the first major support zone for crypto bulls. If the weekend pressure manages to overcome the bullish resistance, the next possible low for Bitcoin is expected at around $6,000. Crypto trader Michael van de Poppe commented on the current market situation, noting that “we might see a liquidity shortage at $7,500-7,700, which would result in a sharp price drop.”
Indeed, crypto experts pointed out that technically, Bitcoin formed a “double-top” bearish formation, which bulls didn’t manage to hold. Some experts think the downwards correction is most probably due to whale traders. Twitter crypto bot WhaleAlert exposed a series of mid-size transactions from exchanges to private crypto wallets. The amounts, ranging between 900 and 5,000 BTC, are too small to be classified as internal restructuring, but large enough to be noticed. For example, WhaleAlert tweeted about a 5,000 BTC transaction (worth $36,484,419 at the time of publication) between Bitfinex and a yet unspecified wallet address.
It seems whales are moving their stash to somewhere safe, probably expecting another portion of a downward correction, which correlates with the increased trading volumes in stablecoins, as they are commonly referred to as a gateway between fiat and crypto.
Meanwhile, the crypto market seems to be engulfed by fear, according to the Fear & Greed Index. The index indicates a measure of 15. The traditional stock market seems a bit more trustworthy, at least from the Index reading of 43, as the U.S. Federal Reserve issued at least two trillion in stimulus packages to U.S. citizens.
However, some crypto projects continue to thrive amid the global market recession and virus outbreaks. ChainLink (LINK), for example, managed to go up 32% just from the past week. The oracle platform’s token also almost doubled itself from the COVID-19 lows of mid-March. However, LINK is still 38% of its all-time high of $4,97, recorded days before the massive market wipe-out.
submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]

Can Bitcoin separate from the independent market

Can Bitcoin separate from the independent market
Recently, the price of Bitcoin plunged to $ 3,600 on BitMEX and $ 3,800 on Bitfinex, setting the worst one-day drop in seven years. The sell-off coincided with a sharp correction in the US stock market.
Bitcoin, at least in theory, should be a safe-haven asset immune to the turbulence of traditional financial markets. However, in the past two weeks, as investors frantically sold high-risk assets, Bitcoin has begun to fall in sync with the stock market.
Do US stocks dive leading crypto market down?
Over the past week, the bitcoin price has responded to several key events, including President Trump's announcement of a 30-day travel ban between the United States and Europe, and the Federal Reserve's announcement to reduce the federal benchmark interest rate to 0.00% -0.25% Levels and more.
Compared with the trend of S & P 500, Bitcoin is almost the same as Bitcoin.
https://preview.redd.it/2asc4s2plfn41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=495f610ada720436a3abfd8e97d66ac062def543
OKEx's advanced analysis is that William told Golden Finance, "Just as bitcoin price has no correlation with gold, there is no obvious correlation between bitcoin and U.S. stocks. The reason why U.S. stocks and bitcoin are falling is that the market is too lacking Liquidity, all funds are looking for safe, liquid assets. "
He explained by way of example that, in normal time, the water in the well is difficult to connect with the water in the lake; but the sky fell and the water levels of the lake and the well fell sharply. Even so, there was not much connection between the two sides. Just because of the influence of the big climate.
US stocks are about to open. How is Bitcoin trending?
In the early morning of March 18, local time, all three major US stock index futures fell, triggering trading restrictions.
The S & P 500 index futures contract for June 2020 fell to 2393.50 points, down 3.70%, hitting trading restrictions. The NASDAQ (7334.78, 430.19, 6.23%) index futures contract for June 2020 fell to 7064.25 points, hitting trading restrictions. The Dow Jones (21237.3809, 1048.86, 5.20%) index for the June 2020 contract was reported at 2039 points, which also hit trading restrictions.
Only 2 hours from the opening of the US stock market, will the US stocks reappear?
In this regard, industry analysts believe that the current US government is preparing to introduce the US $ 700 billion to the US $ 1 trillion stimulus plan and issue it directly to the public. All the US stocks rose due to this positive impact yesterday. But whether the liquidity crisis can be resolved is still a question mark. In addition, there are already confirmed cases in all states in the United States, the number of confirmed diagnoses in Europe is also rising sharply, a large number of factory shutdowns, which has a great impact on the stock market, so the probability of US stocks will fall in the next few months. Investors are not advised to take a dip at this time. It is now a crisis period and a dip is now a high-risk event. Regarding Bitcoin, it is recommended that you do not buy it, for the time being, at least it is not too late to buy it after the liquidity crisis has passed.
In terms of technical indicators, BTC remained within the rising triangle range formed after the recent big drop. The rebound started yesterday evening with the rise of U.S. stocks, but the strength was limited, and it was difficult to form a more powerful rebound in the short term. After wearing the Bollinger Middle Rail for 4 hours, the MACD bullish measuring column started to weaken above the 0 axes. The fast and slow lines have flattened, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient. In the near future, it is still shock-organized. Parallel head up, volume matching, and breaking through the 4-hour potential double bottom neckline to suppress the high point of $ 5,950. Later, it is expected to test the previous low of 6400-6500. At present, the support below is the uptrend line. Today's limit is 4850. US dollar, the next 4-hour level is 4880 US dollars, short-term support to increase about 30 US dollars every 4 hours, the short-term operation can pay attention to these positions, the current overall maintenance of the triangle interval, waiting for direction choice.
https://preview.redd.it/gi1j9jewlfn41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcdd2da52cd6a7de41d561c21760d8ff7eb6fc32
submitted by FinnHe to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Terrible!

For Trading March 17th
Markets Halted Again FED Move Fails to Help
Yields Steady
Today’s market was pounded from the start with the futures overnight falling to down “the limit” prior to our open and were halted almost immediately. We came close to the second halt, but the market stabilized, sort of, and traded without much enthusiasm until Mr. Trump started to speak, and that took us to a new low of the day at -1050 or so. For a while it looked as if we’d also see a new all-time loss on the NASDAQ 2hich looked like it would go -1000, but rallied a touch to close -970.29 (12.32%), DJIA -2997.11 (12.93%), SP 500 -324.90 (11.98%), the Russell -171.66 (14.2%) and the DJ Transports -916.76 (11.55%). Market internals were not quite as bad as the decline would project with NYSE A/D 24:1 and NASDAQ 11:1, but the DJIA was a debacle with all stocks lower and the biggest losers being UNH -317DPs, HD-275, BA -274, AAPL -242, MCD-190, V -162, and MSFT -158. In fact, 10 of the 30 were down triple digits while only 1, WBA was down a single digit. The Fed’s dramatic 1% rate cut down to .25% did little to calm fears as did their open market infusions during the day. The White House did little to engender any confidence, and their lack of any cohesive fiscal plans left the futures “limit down” from early last evening right up to the open, which lasted only a minute, literally, before level 1 circuit breakers halted the market for 15 minutes. We came very close to the second breakers at -13%, but the market seemed to calm down a bit and while trading included more forced liquidation, but the decline was stopped at -2798 by 10:00 (including the 15 minute halt) and we rallied until topping out at 11:30 at -1417. The rest of the day was uneventful until Trump started speaking and we sold off into the close with a new point loss record. Briefing.com listed NO STRONG groups for the 3rd time in 3 days with the weakest including Info tech, financials, consumer discretionary, materials, real estate and of course, energy.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: I’m not sure that there is really any point to listing all the names and declines here so I’m just going to hit the groups and highlight any outstanding issues. But the main characteristic of this market is forced liquidation. Whether for margin calls, or recently new investors throwing in the towel and leaving the market, it’s pretty extreme. As I’ve said here before, the rallies in a bear market can be very deceptive. Sharp and quick and with high volume, sucking you back in because everyone wants to believe the turn is here.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with most down nearly 10% and the only multipoint gainer being REGN +4.45. On the downside we had BIIB -21.71, ABBV -9.06 (10.16%), ISRG -66.69 (14.16%), MYL +.13, TEVA -.99 (11.79%), VRTX -21.09 (9.55%), BHC -3.48 (18.51%), INCY -2.34, ICPT -16.81 (23.41%), LABU -8.10 (33.37%) and IBB $95.90 -7.78 (7.5%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again and it’s almost a waste to discuss the group, which is severely broken with TLRY, a former $300 stock that has fallen for 14 of the last 16 days from $20 to close today $3.05 -.875 (21.74%). Even the medical company CURLF was $3.20 -.48 (12.83%) and KERN the compliance software $4.16 -.91 (17.95%) and MJ $9.54 -.80 (7.74%).
DEFENSE: was SHARPLY LOWER with most down double digits LMT -33.08, RTN -16.29, GD -12.94, TXT -2.22, UTX -13.37, NOC -31.00, BWXT -3.79, TDY -37.18, and ITA $134.25 -23.12 (14.69%).
RETAIL was LOWER with all down double-digit percentages. M -1.16 (14.45%), JWN -4.40 (20.38%), and on the brand side, TPR (COACH) -4.23 (26.06%), and CPRI (KORS), -4.27 (30.65%) and XRT $28.66 -4.08 (12.46%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with this group the highlight of the crowded trade problems. GOOGL – 129.27, AMZN -40, AAPL -27.97 (10%), FB -21.28 (12.5%), NFLX-30.30 (after making a 52-wk high @393, 10 days ago and 95 higher), NVDA -34.94, IBM -5.71, TSLA -93.62, BABA -12.41, BIDU -8.84, BA -37.34, CAT -2.66, DIS -5.41, and XLK $72.56 -11.63 (13.81%).
FINANCIALS were SHARPLY LOWER with the market and the FEDs big rate cut didn’t seem to help. GS –18.60, JPM -13.16, BAC -3.28, MS -4.66 (after Cramer “sanctioned the purchase” last Tuesday at $37 ($6 ago), C -8.79, PNC -17.01, AIG -3.44, TRV -20.94 (19.49%), AXP -8.67, and XLF $20.35 -2.70 (11.71%).
OIL, $28.70 -3.04 The stocks were LOWER with the price of Oil trying to hold $30.00 initially but turning back down and breaking $29.00. This puts it back near the 2016 lows just under $27.00. XLE finished $27.81 -4.38 (13.61%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,486.50 -30.20. After the overnight rally on the Fed news the Gold fell along with the S&P, and other indexes. Gold is clearly suffering through liquidation like the rest of the market, but the FED repo program should stoke the inflation fires, and any bounce in stocks will help.
BITCOIN: closed $4930 -400. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $4390, and for the first time in days did not make a new recent low. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $5.44 -.73 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

OOF!

For Trading March 17th
Markets Halted Again FED Move Fails to Help
Yields Steady
Today’s market was pounded from the start with the futures overnight falling to down “the limit” prior to our open and were halted almost immediately. We came close to the second halt, but the market stabilized, sort of, and traded without much enthusiasm until Mr. Trump started to speak, and that took us to a new low of the day at -1050 or so. For a while it looked as if we’d also see a new all-time loss on the NASDAQ 2hich looked like it would go -1000, but rallied a touch to close -970.29 (12.32%), DJIA -2997.11 (12.93%), SP 500 -324.90 (11.98%), the Russell -171.66 (14.2%) and the DJ Transports -916.76 (11.55%). Market internals were not quite as bad as the decline would project with NYSE A/D 24:1 and NASDAQ 11:1, but the DJIA was a debacle with all stocks lower and the biggest losers being UNH -317DPs, HD-275, BA -274, AAPL -242, MCD-190, V -162, and MSFT -158. In fact, 10 of the 30 were down triple digits while only 1, WBA was down a single digit. The Fed’s dramatic 1% rate cut down to .25% did little to calm fears as did their open market infusions during the day. The White House did little to engender any confidence, and their lack of any cohesive fiscal plans left the futures “limit down” from early last evening right up to the open, which lasted only a minute, literally, before level 1 circuit breakers halted the market for 15 minutes. We came very close to the second breakers at -13%, but the market seemed to calm down a bit and while trading included more forced liquidation, but the decline was stopped at -2798 by 10:00 (including the 15 minute halt) and we rallied until topping out at 11:30 at -1417. The rest of the day was uneventful until Trump started speaking and we sold off into the close with a new point loss record. Briefing.com listed NO STRONG groups for the 3rd time in 3 days with the weakest including Info tech, financials, consumer discretionary, materials, real estate and of course, energy.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: I’m not sure that there is really any point to listing all the names and declines here so I’m just going to hit the groups and highlight any outstanding issues. But the main characteristic of this market is forced liquidation. Whether for margin calls, or recently new investors throwing in the towel and leaving the market, it’s pretty extreme. As I’ve said here before, the rallies in a bear market can be very deceptive. Sharp and quick and with high volume, sucking you back in because everyone wants to believe the turn is here.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with most down nearly 10% and the only multipoint gainer being REGN +4.45. On the downside we had BIIB -21.71, ABBV -9.06 (10.16%), ISRG -66.69 (14.16%), MYL +.13, TEVA -.99 (11.79%), VRTX -21.09 (9.55%), BHC -3.48 (18.51%), INCY -2.34, ICPT -16.81 (23.41%), LABU -8.10 (33.37%) and IBB $95.90 -7.78 (7.5%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again and it’s almost a waste to discuss the group, which is severely broken with TLRY, a former $300 stock that has fallen for 14 of the last 16 days from $20 to close today $3.05 -.875 (21.74%). Even the medical company CURLF was $3.20 -.48 (12.83%) and KERN the compliance software $4.16 -.91 (17.95%) and MJ $9.54 -.80 (7.74%).
DEFENSE: was SHARPLY LOWER with most down double digits LMT -33.08, RTN -16.29, GD -12.94, TXT -2.22, UTX -13.37, NOC -31.00, BWXT -3.79, TDY -37.18, and ITA $134.25 -23.12 (14.69%).
RETAIL was LOWER with all down double-digit percentages. M -1.16 (14.45%), JWN -4.40 (20.38%), and on the brand side, TPR (COACH) -4.23 (26.06%), and CPRI (KORS), -4.27 (30.65%) and XRT $28.66 -4.08 (12.46%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with this group the highlight of the crowded trade problems. GOOGL – 129.27, AMZN -40, AAPL -27.97 (10%), FB -21.28 (12.5%), NFLX-30.30 (after making a 52-wk high @393, 10 days ago and 95 higher), NVDA -34.94, IBM -5.71, TSLA -93.62, BABA -12.41, BIDU -8.84, BA -37.34, CAT -2.66, DIS -5.41, and XLK $72.56 -11.63 (13.81%).
FINANCIALS were SHARPLY LOWER with the market and the FEDs big rate cut didn’t seem to help. GS –18.60, JPM -13.16, BAC -3.28, MS -4.66 (after Cramer “sanctioned the purchase” last Tuesday at $37 ($6 ago), C -8.79, PNC -17.01, AIG -3.44, TRV -20.94 (19.49%), AXP -8.67, and XLF $20.35 -2.70 (11.71%).
OIL, $28.70 -3.04 The stocks were LOWER with the price of Oil trying to hold $30.00 initially but turning back down and breaking $29.00. This puts it back near the 2016 lows just under $27.00. XLE finished $27.81 -4.38 (13.61%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,486.50 -30.20. After the overnight rally on the Fed news the Gold fell along with the S&P, and other indexes. Gold is clearly suffering through liquidation like the rest of the market, but the FED repo program should stoke the inflation fires, and any bounce in stocks will help.
BITCOIN: closed $4930 -400. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $4390, and for the first time in days did not make a new recent low. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $5.44 -.73 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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