Simple Guide to Bitcoin Arbitrage Opportunities in 2020

Hello, friends - Im in need of a fellship

Hello, friends. I would like to tell you a story to beat all stories. There once was a hobbit, who lived in a hole… and this is a retelling of a very old story, or allegory, as I hope you will contact us afterwards, of how he got out of the cave he made for himself.
The Plan
We are going to monopolize a series of decentralized crypto currency networks, more specifically utility token networks, that currently exist in a state of simultaneously being over valued, and under valued, at the same time. This result was not expected at the outset of the creation of the projects that we are going to explore, but I assure you, this is the case. It is very possible that we’re looking at the cutting edge of computer science – potentially, we are looking at a rip in the space-time continuum – but what is most definite is that we’re looking at an arbitrage opportunity of historic significance. It is also potentially going to be the largest robbery perpetrated against the most deserving victims, resulting in the most benefit for the most people since Robin Hood took Prince John’s last shilling.
What Im going to describe is a little bit classical investing, a little bit of The Matrix, and a little bit Oceans 11. Its also going to be a little bit Darwinist, a little bit Wolf of Wall Street, and very self-serving all the way to the end of it, where it becomes the most beautiful gift humanity ever gave to itself. But the good part, at the very end, only happens if we can trust each other to break an unbreakable trustless system. And after we’re done doing that, we’re going to have to do something that is even more unheard of in the study of history, and a thing commonly only found in fantasy. What we’re going to try to create is the most similar to 9/11, in the sense that it is the opposite of it. Our data has found, through the study of human history, that a small group of people sufficiently funded with a relatively small sum of money are capable of taking that money, and turning it into a catalyst that results in a historic event that shapes the future for many years to come. The common term for this is a catastrophe, or cataclysmic event.
But the thesis of this computer science experiment that we’re already undertaking, but seek the support of in reaching out to you, is that we can create the opposite of a catastrophe. The term for this was coined first by JRR Tolkien – he referred to this even as a “eucatastrophe” or a “a sudden and favorable resolution of events in a story” but perhaps is most commonly known to the public as “a happy ending” – he describes this event in the The Lord of the Rings, when Frodo drops the ring into Mount Doom.
I believe it is possible to dream a happy ending into existence using computer logic and the greed of speculation about the future, rather than the real world investing in it that our market system was supposed to provide - but this is how the story begins.
Orientation
The first crypto currency, Bitcoin, is only 8 years old, and at the end of this document, you will likely understand more about crypto currency than the people who created the first one. This is possible because it is an entire sector that has been more pushed forward by dreamers and curious minds than it has been developed by venture capital interests.
Groups that demand immediate and consistent profitable returns, and measure those returns against the results of other ventures that have been agreed on to be the benchmark of success would suggest that double digit annual returns are unsustainable but its best to enjoy them while it lasts. But, we have found, using crypto currencies, that the returns traditional investing earn in a year can be gained in a day, when occupying enough market share of a market. We do this using automation to interact with the world markets in a specific way that provides liquidity and stability in markets that are traditionally the most volatile in the world. As the price moves, we tax that movement, and extract value for ourselves by way of profits from trading, and create value for the broader ecosystem in the form of price support, thus preventing the market from bottoming out (or at least falling slower because of our participation), as well as creating price stability during market highs, allowing people with non-automated trading systems to capitalize on longer periods of positive growth without missing the chance to sell while the market is up.
While our automation has sufficient funds to provide liquidity in these exchanges, we are day over day getting between 100 and 300 bps/day in earnings. To continue providing liquidity to these markets when our own reserves of coins are low, we are using a decentralized smart contract that provides credit in exchange for collateral and interest on the resources lent. By using this method, we are able to keep liquidity in these markets, and our trading system maximally effective, regardless of price movement or our own holdings of coins, and the interest on renting the coins to do it is almost negligible.
Furthermore, these markets are “utility tokens” exchanges. That is to say, these tokens only represent resources a computer network should allocate to a user based on the size of his coin holdings. There are no traditional metrics to evaluate these coins and their value, as the market price of them is simply the intersection of supply and demand on a moment to moment basis as determined by a decentralized network of users who have or want them. In short, they will never be so cheap that the price of the desk the computers sit on is greater than the price of owning a stake in that desk, because they do not represent ownership of that desk at all. Likewise, when the price is astronomically high, it can never be deemed too high, because the network it represents resource allocation of does not now, nor ever will be profitable or unprofitable. It simply will continue to be there, and allow you to interact with it, based on if you have coins for that network and how many. It is more important to understand that these coins are NOT SECURITIES than it is to understand what those coins are at all.
Going forward, a great deal of this plan and discussion will be metaphor and perhaps come across as hyperbole. The reason for this is because the systems that we are talking about are simply shuffling zeroes and ones to each other, and if I gave you the math for what is going to happen expressed in those terms, there are few or no minds on the planet that could follow the thread of this discussion in those terms at all in the context of how much data the network has if you tried to aggregate it.
The very people who create and code these networks do not even interact with them on these terms of zeroes and ones, but rather in a coding language. In this sense, even the people coding these systems are only using metaphor by interacting using the programming languages that they do. And so, in order to make this slightly less boring, and more readable, I hope you will forgive the use of language that is more descriptive than it is literal, but what is most important to remember along the way is that nothing about what is being described is a crime as the Security Exchange Commission would see it, because none of these things are securities at all.
What is the Bitcoin Network?
The first bitcoin was created 8 years ago as a result of a cryptographic computer science experiment in which a group of people who referred to themselves as “the cryptopunks” sought to create a decentralized and censorship resistant network that could keep a ledger of the location of all the bitcoins and their ownership in real time without the need for any 3rd party involvement or consent.
The entity attributed with the creation of Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology is known only as “Satoshi Nakamoto” which is commonly agreed to be a pseudonym for a person or group of persons. No one has heard from “Satoshi Nakamoto” since “he” disappeared after a colleague on the Bitcoin team sent him an email saying that the CIA had reached out to him, and wanted to talk about their research.
The security of the blockchain is provided through “proof of work” in which a network of computers around the planet attempt to use brute for number crunching to find the sum of the interior angles of a triangle in non-Euclidean geometry based on 3 points on a sphere. The interior angle of that triangle are unpredictable, because unlike in traditional geometry where the sum of the angles is always 180 degrees, when 3 points on a triangle are placed on a sphere the range can fall anywhere above 180 degrees, but not equal to it, and as high as or equal to 540 degrees. To perhaps exemplify how a triangle can have 540 degrees, consider that if you and 2 friends formed a straight line on earth, that the interior angle between each of you is 180 degrees, and there are 3 of you, and the definition of a triangle is 3 points on any given plane, thus the angle of the triangle you formed when standing in a line is 540 degrees, and cannot be any greater. The interior angle of the previous block in the chain is the determining factor in the placement of the next 3 points to be solved for in the following. The first machine to solve the question of “How many degrees are inside this triangle?” by guessing is given the privilege of taking the highest bidders for his time from the market, and performing the protocols desired by way of recording changes to the block chain, while other participants in the system are prevented from recording in this way. As the next block cannot be solved without knowing the solution to the present one, the system is trustless and immutable – it cannot be tampered with, and is governed only by math, with no gate keepers.
What is the Ethereum Network?
The Ethereum Network, or Ethereum Virtual Machine, is a set of computer protocols with a heavy emphasis on determinism as the backbone it was built on. These protocols determine the outcome of an interaction with the blockchain, and the creation of an ever-evolving record of the location and allocation of the resources these systems are built to account for.
Ethereum also has the ability for users to interact and create decentralized “smart contracts” which serve to govern the ownership and allocation of coins as agreed upon by two parties based upon outcomes that don’t require a 3rd party to execute. Metaphorically, you can think of this as an ATM, where no bank teller interacts with you, but rather a user only interacts with a machine that allows you to deposit money in your savings account, and borrow on a credit card with a limit proportional to your savings account. You could also think of it as a dooms-day device, that is going to act the way its going to act with no way to stop it once events are put in motion.
Other users of the smart contract can see how you have interacted with it because the blockchain is public and visible to the world, and if they would like, can accept the terms of that agreement, and at no time can anyone other than each of the individual users control what the users are doing. In short, there are no gatekeepers in Ethereum. There is only what exists in the network by way of code, and the infinite room to put it there if you would like to and are willing to pay for the electricity needed to carve it into existence and be maintained for the rest of time, but this is a one time payment which costs less than your credit card skims from starbucks when you buy a coffee.
What is staking?
Staking is an idea seeking to resolve the problem of energy waste that is seen in proof of work. The problem with proof of work is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to run the level of computation that crypto networks currently use, and all but 1 of those computations actually resulted in change at all. To solve this problem, a staking system could be put in place in which rather than randomly guessing as we have been, a user would put up collateral in order to act as verification entity, where the trust of that individual’s word was determined by how large of a stake that individual might have. Anyone who felt that the outcome of an event in the blockchain was being mis-reported could put a larger stake up or proportion thereof, and which ever outcome is the most heavily staked by the user base would be deemed the “true” outcome, because there is seemingly no value is attempting to stake a “lie” or “untruth” if a greater consensus could be made, as the economic incentive is to side with the truth than the lie.
What is Augur? What is REP?
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform. The limits for what kind of market can be made is infinite, and censorship proof, as a result of being hosted on the Ethereum Network. Users stake their REP, short for Reputation, in order to report the resolution of market outcomes. Because Ethereum has no way of drawing information from the outside world without the outside world participating with it intentionally, this hurdle is overcome by allowing users to report themselves. In exchange for doing this reporting work, people who hold REP are given a small amount of the volume of those markets (as set by the market creators) and these dividends are paid in Ether (ETH).
So an example of what kind of market could be found within Augur is “Who will win the game this weekend between the Eagles and Packers?” or “Who is going to win the next election?” or “Will the rainfall this year in Chicago exceed 22 inches?” or even “When will mankind cure death?”. There is no approval process in creating a market, only a loose form users must stick to, and the resource requirements to maintain that market on the blockchain – again, infinitely, for the rest of time if desired, in exchange for a one time payment in the present to cover the cost of electricity to manifest your will or curiosity on the network.
In the time between the creation and resolution of these markets, users can see the likelihood of the outcome of any given result represented by the confidence in that result numerically using Ether and the volume staking one outcome or another. This type of prediction oracle is called “The wisdom of the crowd” which says that it is more accurate to ask the crowd than any one person for their opinion of that outcome, as no one person has all the information on the system in question.
Computer Science and the Space-Time Continuum
We live in an uncertain time. In the very real world we live in people in our country are arming themselves against their neighbors. Gun sales at record highs. Racial tension. What would happen if my band of pirates staked 1,000,000 ETH in a prediction market paying 100,000:1 that we will all love each other and not have a race war. Do you think people who could see that uncensorable prediction market would feel more at ease, and perhaps not buy a gun, or fear their neighbor less? Do you think if we were correct about that prediction market that we would have gotten lucky, or would we have believed our own prediction into existence and created a situation where we are not only staking the future, but creating it by using greed as the fuel? If a person thought in spite of my band of misfits prediction market that there still would be a race war this year, do you think that they would spend 1,000 dollars on an AR-15 to feel safer, or stake the opposite position with those funds in that market against my declaration of peace, and rather have the keys to a wallet that can be accessed anywhere in the world with 100,000,000 dollars to buy their safety if they are ever living in a world where a gun might help?
Considering that my band of misfits doesnt need the money, nearly so much as we need a better safer world, and will have created an incentive for you to feel safer, and not buy a gun either way - do you think the future that comes to be was lucky prediction? Or market manipulation?
Would you rather have us manipulate that market? Or not?
What do you think would happen in the tech industry if we took the position that the singularity was going to happen in 2029 or not going to happen in 2028, and we staked 1 billion dollars on it happening accordingly. We would have created an incentive in a futures market for someone to take the opposite side of our action, and try to do it faster. If the singularity happened in 2028 because we took so much stupid beanie baby money and proclaimed that it was going to happen in 2029 - what just happened there? Did the winner of that bet in our futures market get lucky? Or did we just create a mechanism for greed to accelerate the end of human mortality because we said it would happen with money by staking the position that it wouldnt? What do you think would happen if we staked the temperature of the earth with that money that nearly destroyed it? What would happen if we staked the race to mars, or the moon? What if your opportunity was that no one had gone to the moon yet this year, and we had created a way to profit by just going to check that its still there? We would have created a global decentralized market for the challenges that we face as a species, and opportunity to optimize ourselves without needing permission to be the best versions we can be. All of these markets can be crowd funded into eternity for visa’s cut of your cup of coffee, and would grow infinitely from the failure of the previous moment in time until our disappointment and greed merge to collapse the infinite possibility of time and space, thus dreaming a better world into existence using man kind’s propensity for greed, and proven track record of being disappointing.
We believe that this will potentially cause dramatic harm to the crypto economy, and broader economy as we know if for a short time. We believe our system is capable of growing the coins in our custody at a rate well above 1.5% per day, because we are currently growing at 3% per day. The power of exponential growth is significant. Likely, more than you can imagine. Consider than 1 dollar today will be 38 next year at 1% growth per day. It will be over 50 at 1.1%, and at 3% growth per day, 1 dollar becomes almost 50,000 in a year. This is the data that assures me that I don’t really need your help, only would like it. Based on the coins in our custody now, and our present rate of growth and innovation, our projections put us at owning the bulk of coins in circulation in the next 19 years. But – if we were to push that timeline even a little bit, by increasing that pile of coins in the present, we accelerate the timeline exponentially. And if we increase the resources in our control by quite a bit… we believe that we will accomplish our goal in the next 2 years.
The Goal
When our Computer Science Appreciation Club has accumulated enough of the coins in the network, and wrung every bit of value that exists only as a result of greed and speculation by those who have no desire to ever use these networks, we are going to do another magic trick.
In addition to accelerating human accomplishment with the power of hope, dreams, and greed. We’re going to take all or some of the coins in our control, and we’re going to collateralize them in a money market very much like the one we are currently using to impose our will on the cryptocurrency ecosystem. We are going to issue a new coin, backed by all the coins we had accumulated previously to create a stable, immutable, uncontrollable, uncensorable, globally available currency. Then, we’re going to send the keys of an individual wallet address to every man woman and child on the planet with some of that coin in it. And we are going to put some more of that coin in it every day. So that at no point, will there be a day where someone can say they did not have two nickels to rub together. We believe no one will ever say they didn’t have two hundred dollar bills together, when we are successful, ever again.
But this is not a selfless act by my merry band of misfits and pirates. Quite the contrary. We believe that nearly everyone on the planet that we interact with is disappointing. That the chimpanzee meat computer of our present hardware is ill suited to optimizing for the future in the present paradigm. We are giving away this money at that point, so that everyone can stop being such a disappointment to us. We are tired of the experience where an hourly employee gives us bad customer service because they are not paid enough to put up with our bullshit. We hope to make a world where people interact with each other because they want to, not because they have to. We are going to be filthy rich, when we are successful, or for that matter if we fail, my band of misfits. And we are worried when that happens about how long before it is that men with guns come for what is ours. We don’t know if these men with guns will come from the governments of the world, or from those envying what we have.
We seek to become the golden goose of the planet, and in return we would like to not fear slaughter while we try this. In this arrangement, we look only for your cooperation, and in return, will share an infinite sum of golden eggs with you, and everyone you know. And when we do this, we will not fear the envy of our neighbors, nor the governments who command the armies it would take to stop us. We will protect the people from their governments, and themselves. And in time, we hope the governments will likewise protect us from their people, though letting go of power will no doubt be hard to swallow. The only thing that can stop us from doing this is if someone buys the coins that give us power from us. And in doing so, would give us the wealth we need to accomplish these things in the real world. If we are not bought out, we will accumulate enough coins in the Ethereum Network that we can impose our will upon it, until we can deliver on our promises of a better world because we control it completely.
In these sense, we have already won. A better world is already here, as certainly as we have already dreamed the path to it. We plan on out-staking a better world into existence, regardless of what the future currently holds in store for us now. In short, we are going to lie to an unbreakable trustless system until it births the world we’re lying about into the realm of what is real. In shorter, we are going to believe our bullshit more than you cannot believe it, until we have delivered what we promised.
The Problem
The problem with growing as fast as the control our Computer Science Appreciation Club is over the Ethereum Network is that its too fast. We’re growing our sum of coins so fast, that to an outside observer you might think we were a hedge fund of some sort at best. But at worst, you might think we were a criminal enterprise. Legitimate enterprises don’t grow at 1% or more daily infinitely, but we do. And if you were not as educated as you are, now, at this point in reading this, when you saw how “rich” we were, you might think someone should try to stop it. We would ask, for your sake, and our own, that you don’t – we don’t need you to do anything, and the world is going to get better from here.
The problem is that if we were a hedge fund, which we aren’t, then we would need to file paperwork to take control of other people’s funds. If these were securities, the acts we were going to commit would be best exemplified in Wolf of Wall Street, but we’re going to do it on a much greater scale with computers. Lucky for us, these coins are not securities, they are less regulated than the gold in World of Warcraft you can buy with your credit card, or the skins in League of Legends. These coins are worth nothing, and everything, at the same time.
But the bigger problem, is that I cannot stop you from sending “money” to my “hedge fund” when/if you sent ether to my wallet address where we are running this experiment. It’s a decentralized system, and its open source, and completely public, if we tried to hide it would only work for so long until an internet detective found it. If someone was to find the address of our computer science appreciation club, we could not stop them from sending coins there. But, since we cannot stop them, we would like them not to waste their time looking – the address is this on the Ethereum Network:
0xCDF449b5c9Bd2A725319163C3E7f2d7222c4d8c9
We have the best legal minds on the planet trying to solve this puzzle with us, and we’ll get the paperwork straight soon – if the Winklevoss Twins don’t think it’s a conflict of interest.
If reading this letter, you find your brain to be so tickled by it - that regardless of the forces that seek to keep us from accumulating enough resources to do this in two years, you wish to believe in it more than those opposing forces, and in doing so stake your opinion about what the future you are going to live will be, I would not ask you to waste a moment of your life looking for us, because we are here to be found. We cannot count our coins as fast as they grow, but our collective efforts will be carved into the eternal stone of the Ethereum network, and I promise we’re going to give back all of these coins to the world, when we’re done fixing a few things.
But there is another problem, and its far worse than making “money” too fast - just as we are going to bet that no one goes to the moon until someone does every year forever just for fun, it is possible to bet on the absence of a war until a war exists because your certainty manifests it into being to spite you. The same market we hope to keep the world at peace, and put their fears to rest from the uncertainty of where we’re going next is also a mechanism to game our system, and bet on a war happening to get rich. But there is a way to stop this – we’re going to accumulate the majority of the REP tokens, and if we have 51% of the circulation, if someone tries to beat us at our own game and bring a war into existence – then we would be able to stop the unstoppable machine from making them rich. We will also have the wallet addresses of the people who needed the insurance policy we are going to unfairly deny, to make them whole, and they would have neighbors with means to support them while we unfucked the pooch. We would have a failsafe to prevent a war from coming to be, because we are so sure there will not be one that it might happen. This, above all else, will back the new currency we are going to issue to the planet. Our new currency will not be backed by gold, or equity, or faith in a flawed system. It we be backed by trust of mankind invested back into itself that we will not go back to a system that will tolerate scarcity, or war, or hunger in exchange for the certainty of the absence of these things. No one will need to ask what is in our vault, or need to audit it, until the day comes where maybe someone will try to beat us at our own game. If that happens – we’re going to need the world to give back the currency we gave it as our collective reward for our cooperation, to free the tool we need to stop violent men from becoming rich men at the cost of a world without poverty, because it will be the immutable collateral backing the currency we are going to give you.
As a disclaimer, Im not somebody who has the background you might think someone should have for this – Im just a hobbit. Im not a hedge fund manager, or a computer science engineer. I raise pigs, and ducks, and geese that need some help, too – because we aren’t eating them enough to keep them existing in our food supply. It is a more fun paradox than this, and I get to solve that one by cooking dinner for some friends, and telling stories when this adventure is over. It feels a little like The Shire there, where I’ve been hiding melting my ego with psychedelics in the sunshine while salting pork, and listening to podcasts from Rogan, Duncan, Bart Chystler, Tom and Krista, some tinfoil hat guys, and seeing how abundant a life can be given only a little bit of hopium and room for creativity, and Im eager to get there and back, again. I very much look forward to seeing what we’re all capable of, when we’re given a chance. But we’re going to have to put a little faith in a system that doesn’t need faith to operate - so that we can fix a different system that has never needed it more. I think we’re going to be able to do that for us all, but I might very well be lying to you, and not know it yet – at least, that’s the plan.
Ironically, salting pork is what brought me to understand what is worth something, and what isn’t. When they used to talk about a “salary” or say that you were “worth your salt” was because all that you needed to live was enough salt to keep your meat from rotting when you cured it into bacon and hams at the end of the season. The salt’s value wasn’t while it was in the bag, it was while it was preserving your food when times were hard and things were scarce. In the modern time, a salary is what gets bigger when a emloyer make his employees poorer. Now, we have made laws to respect each other by race and religion and where who-sticks-what-where, but made it legal and standard to reduce someone’s value to an integer value of currency per moment in time, and the currency is backed by oppression of man-against-man (chicks, too). To increase your integer value per moment in time, that gain must come from another? Are we the only people who think this is inherently disrespectful to your fellow man even if you don’t call him a “fag” to his face like we used to when we were kids and it meant “I love you, man – but Im too afraid of being called gay to say it”.
In the present what is perhaps the most scarce of all, are places where you are free to be an animal at all, let alone places where you are free to be the lion you might be and not know it. We are so caught up in having agreed upon contracts so that we don’t get fucked, that we don’t have trust or honor that is held between lions when the zebra meat is abundant and they eat shoulder to shoulder without worry of each other. We live in a time where there is quite literally more deer on the planet than there has been in some time, and yet we imagine something would keep us as lions from preying on them in the real world. But, to us, as long as you are giving the animals fair chase, there is no time that feeding yourself as the king of the jungle is wrong, if you are hungry. And Im here to tell the people who think they can stop us, that we are giving you fair chase. We will be in every exchange on the planet soon, giving you chances to get on or off this train. And when you buy, it will be from us. When you sell, it will be to us. Your only safe market is the door out of here in ETH/USD and BTC/USD because we will not be selling our coins, only buying more. And every time you do anything other than leave your coins on the table, and take that worthless paper money with you, we will grow that much stronger. If you buy the coins we want, you will give us power in the real world. If you sell them, we will get them cheaper. When your fear or FOMO has sent you zigging… or for that matter zagging, one of my lions will catch you. We are not asking for your support by way of co-operation, we are asking for it by absence of resistance from a better world than this one. If you will not give us your coins, then we ask that you do not trade them. Keep the keys, or burn them and count them as your contribution without us knowing my band of pirates owes you a favor. Our only compromise is to remove them from circulation, as in this decentralized system, that is the only place we cannot reach them. But co-operation will get us there far, far sooner. To quote a most wise computer scientist, “Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.” We have re-programmed the Kobayashi Maru. My fellowship and I have set out for Mount Doom. And you will be skeptical of us, all the way until you aren’t. And then, I would ask for only your belief – perhaps in no one more then yourselves, that you could be the type of person to rise to a challenge that will face us that we haven’t seen yet. But maybe you can rise to face the challenges that have always been faced, by mother and fathers, and children – spending time together, eating real and wholesome food in good company as often as you can. Those challenges are the simple ones, and we have had the answer for longer than we’ve lost them. You just need to be worth your salt.
If you need someone with a stronger background to support my position, I cant give that to you right now, because Satoshi Nakamoto himself only 8 years of experience. But someone smarter than me said something that sent me down this road while I had smoked enough to dissolve the prison I had made for myself, and it might help you. You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA
I am the son of this good, good, man - who cannot or will not believe this is possible. https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterhchapman/
He is the former CEO of Ray Kurzwiel's largest portfolio holding (who first conceptualized the singularity). He now works a few steps away from Jeff Bezos. And if you do not believe me, dont worry, because he didnt get past the first paragraph of this story.
But I have melted my ego time and time again under the simmering heat of psychedelics, standing alone in a field with pigs, but also in the company of minds longing to break free when they tune into this podcast. And time and time again when I have nothing of an ego to call my own, I cannot shake the feeling that I am the chance event needed to occur within an economic engine that must break so it can be rebuilt better. Outside of the Duncan Trussel Family Hour, I think the Joe Rogan subreddit might be the largest and most public reserve of belief in things that have no reason to believe in aside from because they might work, and I am one of you.
I have no intention of allowing my father's disbelief to become the first gate keeper I have encountered that can keep me from asking Ray Kurzwiel to try to let us stake the Singularity into existence by betting it cant happen in our life time. I have no intention of letting my father stop me from asking Bezos to let me bet that no one will go to the moon, until someone rises to the occasion to prove him wrong.
I need your help, and this is as far as I've gotten, but I dont know if I can go further alone. I seek fellowship, on this quest, and I have come here to what is potentially the Rivendel of our time - Reddit and the JRE
submitted by CompSciAppreciation to DTFH [link] [comments]

On the new batch of comments to the SEC about the SolidX ETF, some honorable mentions, and some negative comments

The SEC just posted a new batch of 286 comments on the SolidX ETF, bringing the total to 1147. I am skimming through them and posted some of the best already to this sub.
The vast majority are short comments, obviously submitted in response to some mail-in campaign. The names sound very much like the invented ones of spam emails that I have been receiving for years. A telling detail is the lack of a middle initial.
They also mostly repeat the same arguments, and many are obviously written by people who don't understand what is the ETF, only that if that SEC thing approves it then the bitcoin price will go to the moon. I have just seen a dozen that start with the same phrase "I hearby[sic] state my acceptance and full support..."
Some are so sloppy that they submit with one name but sign with a different name.
Here are some honorable mentions:
A few negative comments:
submitted by jstolfi to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Augur, and the space time continuum

Hello, friends. I would like to tell you a story to beat all stories. There once was a hobbit, who lived in a hole… and this is a retelling of a very old story, or allegory, as I hope you will contact us afterwards, of how he got out of the cave he made for himself.
The Plan
We are going to monopolize a series of decentralized crypto currency networks, more specifically utility token networks, that currently exist in a state of simultaneously being over valued, and under valued, at the same time. This result was not expected at the outset of the creation of the projects that we are going to explore, but I assure you, this is the case. It is very possible that we’re looking at the cutting edge of computer science – potentially, we are looking at a rip in the space-time continuum – but what is most definite is that we’re looking at an arbitrage opportunity of historic significance. It is also potentially going to be the largest robbery perpetrated against the most deserving victims, resulting in the most benefit for the most people since Robin Hood took Prince John’s last shilling.
What Im going to describe is a little bit classical investing, a little bit of The Matrix, and a little bit Oceans 11. Its also going to be a little bit Darwinist, a little bit Wolf of Wall Street, and very self-serving all the way to the end of it, where it becomes the most beautiful gift humanity ever gave to itself. But the good part, at the very end, only happens if we can trust each other to break an unbreakable trustless system. And after we’re done doing that, we’re going to have to do something that is even more unheard of in the study of history, and a thing commonly only found in fantasy. What we’re going to try to create is the most similar to 9/11, in the sense that it is the opposite of it. Our data has found, through the study of human history, that a small group of people sufficiently funded with a relatively small sum of money are capable of taking that money, and turning it into a catalyst that results in a historic event that shapes the future for many years to come. The common term for this is a catastrophe, or cataclysmic event.
But the thesis of this computer science experiment that we’re already undertaking, but seek the support of in reaching out to you, is that we can create the opposite of a catastrophe. The term for this was coined first by JRR Tolkien – he referred to this even as a “eucatastrophe” or a “a sudden and favorable resolution of events in a story” but perhaps is most commonly known to the public as “a happy ending” – he describes this event in the The Lord of the Rings, when Frodo drops the ring into Mount Doom.
I believe it is possible to dream a happy ending into existence using computer logic and the greed of speculation about the future, rather than the real world investing in it that our market system was supposed to provide - but this is how the story begins.
Orientation
The first crypto currency, Bitcoin, is only 8 years old, and at the end of this document, you will likely understand more about crypto currency than the people who created the first one. This is possible because it is an entire sector that has been more pushed forward by dreamers and curious minds than it has been developed by venture capital interests.
Groups that demand immediate and consistent profitable returns, and measure those returns against the results of other ventures that have been agreed on to be the benchmark of success would suggest that double digit annual returns are unsustainable but its best to enjoy them while it lasts. But, we have found, using crypto currencies, that the returns traditional investing earn in a year can be gained in a day, when occupying enough market share of a market. We do this using automation to interact with the world markets in a specific way that provides liquidity and stability in markets that are traditionally the most volatile in the world. As the price moves, we tax that movement, and extract value for ourselves by way of profits from trading, and create value for the broader ecosystem in the form of price support, thus preventing the market from bottoming out (or at least falling slower because of our participation), as well as creating price stability during market highs, allowing people with non-automated trading systems to capitalize on longer periods of positive growth without missing the chance to sell while the market is up.
While our automation has sufficient funds to provide liquidity in these exchanges, we are day over day getting between 100 and 300 bps/day in earnings. To continue providing liquidity to these markets when our own reserves of coins are low, we are using a decentralized smart contract that provides credit in exchange for collateral and interest on the resources lent. By using this method, we are able to keep liquidity in these markets, and our trading system maximally effective, regardless of price movement or our own holdings of coins, and the interest on renting the coins to do it is almost negligible.
Furthermore, these markets are “utility tokens” exchanges. That is to say, these tokens only represent resources a computer network should allocate to a user based on the size of his coin holdings. There are no traditional metrics to evaluate these coins and their value, as the market price of them is simply the intersection of supply and demand on a moment to moment basis as determined by a decentralized network of users who have or want them. In short, they will never be so cheap that the price of the desk the computers sit on is greater than the price of owning a stake in that desk, because they do not represent ownership of that desk at all. Likewise, when the price is astronomically high, it can never be deemed too high, because the network it represents resource allocation of does not now, nor ever will be profitable or unprofitable. It simply will continue to be there, and allow you to interact with it, based on if you have coins for that network and how many. It is more important to understand that these coins are NOT SECURITIES than it is to understand what those coins are at all.
Going forward, a great deal of this plan and discussion will be metaphor and perhaps come across as hyperbole. The reason for this is because the systems that we are talking about are simply shuffling zeroes and ones to each other, and if I gave you the math for what is going to happen expressed in those terms, there are few or no minds on the planet that could follow the thread of this discussion in those terms at all in the context of how much data the network has if you tried to aggregate it.
The very people who create and code these networks do not even interact with them on these terms of zeroes and ones, but rather in a coding language. In this sense, even the people coding these systems are only using metaphor by interacting using the programming languages that they do. And so, in order to make this slightly less boring, and more readable, I hope you will forgive the use of language that is more descriptive than it is literal, but what is most important to remember along the way is that nothing about what is being described is a crime as the Security Exchange Commission would see it, because none of these things are securities at all.
What is the Bitcoin Network?
The first bitcoin was created 8 years ago as a result of a cryptographic computer science experiment in which a group of people who referred to themselves as “the cryptopunks” sought to create a decentralized and censorship resistant network that could keep a ledger of the location of all the bitcoins and their ownership in real time without the need for any 3rd party involvement or consent.
The entity attributed with the creation of Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology is known only as “Satoshi Nakamoto” which is commonly agreed to be a pseudonym for a person or group of persons. No one has heard from “Satoshi Nakamoto” since “he” disappeared after a colleague on the Bitcoin team sent him an email saying that the CIA had reached out to him, and wanted to talk about their research.
The security of the blockchain is provided through “proof of work” in which a network of computers around the planet attempt to use brute for number crunching to find the sum of the interior angles of a triangle in non-Euclidean geometry based on 3 points on a sphere. The interior angle of that triangle are unpredictable, because unlike in traditional geometry where the sum of the angles is always 180 degrees, when 3 points on a triangle are placed on a sphere the range can fall anywhere above 180 degrees, but not equal to it, and as high as or equal to 540 degrees. To perhaps exemplify how a triangle can have 540 degrees, consider that if you and 2 friends formed a straight line on earth, that the interior angle between each of you is 180 degrees, and there are 3 of you, and the definition of a triangle is 3 points on any given plane, thus the angle of the triangle you formed when standing in a line is 540 degrees, and cannot be any greater. The interior angle of the previous block in the chain is the determining factor in the placement of the next 3 points to be solved for in the following. The first machine to solve the question of “How many degrees are inside this triangle?” by guessing is given the privilege of taking the highest bidders for his time from the market, and performing the protocols desired by way of recording changes to the block chain, while other participants in the system are prevented from recording in this way. As the next block cannot be solved without knowing the solution to the present one, the system is trustless and immutable – it cannot be tampered with, and is governed only by math, with no gate keepers.
What is the Ethereum Network?
The Ethereum Network, or Ethereum Virtual Machine, is a set of computer protocols with a heavy emphasis on determinism as the backbone it was built on. These protocols determine the outcome of an interaction with the blockchain, and the creation of an ever-evolving record of the location and allocation of the resources these systems are built to account for.
Ethereum also has the ability for users to interact and create decentralized “smart contracts” which serve to govern the ownership and allocation of coins as agreed upon by two parties based upon outcomes that don’t require a 3rd party to execute. Metaphorically, you can think of this as an ATM, where no bank teller interacts with you, but rather a user only interacts with a machine that allows you to deposit money in your savings account, and borrow on a credit card with a limit proportional to your savings account. You could also think of it as a dooms-day device, that is going to act the way its going to act with no way to stop it once events are put in motion.
Other users of the smart contract can see how you have interacted with it because the blockchain is public and visible to the world, and if they would like, can accept the terms of that agreement, and at no time can anyone other than each of the individual users control what the users are doing. In short, there are no gatekeepers in Ethereum. There is only what exists in the network by way of code, and the infinite room to put it there if you would like to and are willing to pay for the electricity needed to carve it into existence and be maintained for the rest of time, but this is a one time payment which costs less than your credit card skims from starbucks when you buy a coffee.
What is staking?
Staking is an idea seeking to resolve the problem of energy waste that is seen in proof of work. The problem with proof of work is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to run the level of computation that crypto networks currently use, and all but 1 of those computations actually resulted in change at all. To solve this problem, a staking system could be put in place in which rather than randomly guessing as we have been, a user would put up collateral in order to act as verification entity, where the trust of that individual’s word was determined by how large of a stake that individual might have. Anyone who felt that the outcome of an event in the blockchain was being mis-reported could put a larger stake up or proportion thereof, and which ever outcome is the most heavily staked by the user base would be deemed the “true” outcome, because there is seemingly no value is attempting to stake a “lie” or “untruth” if a greater consensus could be made, as the economic incentive is to side with the truth than the lie.
What is Augur? What is REP?
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform. The limits for what kind of market can be made is infinite, and censorship proof, as a result of being hosted on the Ethereum Network. Users stake their REP, short for Reputation, in order to report the resolution of market outcomes. Because Ethereum has no way of drawing information from the outside world without the outside world participating with it intentionally, this hurdle is overcome by allowing users to report themselves. In exchange for doing this reporting work, people who hold REP are given a small amount of the volume of those markets (as set by the market creators) and these dividends are paid in Ether (ETH).
So an example of what kind of market could be found within Augur is “Who will win the game this weekend between the Eagles and Packers?” or “Who is going to win the next election?” or “Will the rainfall this year in Chicago exceed 22 inches?” or even “When will mankind cure death?”. There is no approval process in creating a market, only a loose form users must stick to, and the resource requirements to maintain that market on the blockchain – again, infinitely, for the rest of time if desired, in exchange for a one time payment in the present to cover the cost of electricity to manifest your will or curiosity on the network.
In the time between the creation and resolution of these markets, users can see the likelihood of the outcome of any given result represented by the confidence in that result numerically using Ether and the volume staking one outcome or another. This type of prediction oracle is called “The wisdom of the crowd” which says that it is more accurate to ask the crowd than any one person for their opinion of that outcome, as no one person has all the information on the system in question.
Computer Science and the Space-Time Continuum
We live in an uncertain time. In the very real world we live in people in our country are arming themselves against their neighbors. Gun sales at record highs. Racial tension. What would happen if my band of pirates staked 1,000,000 ETH in a prediction market paying 100,000:1 that we will all love each other and not have a race war. Do you think people who could see that uncensorable prediction market would feel more at ease, and perhaps not buy a gun, or fear their neighbor less? Do you think if we were correct about that prediction market that we would have gotten lucky, or would we have believed our own prediction into existence and created a situation where we are not only staking the future, but creating it by using greed as the fuel? If a person thought in spite of my band of misfits prediction market that there still would be a race war this year, do you think that they would spend 1,000 dollars on an AR-15 to feel safer, or stake the opposite position with those funds in that market against my declaration of peace, and rather have the keys to a wallet that can be accessed anywhere in the world with 100,000,000 dollars to buy their safety if they are ever living in a world where a gun might help?
Considering that my band of misfits doesnt need the money, nearly so much as we need a better safer world, and will have created an incentive for you to feel safer, and not buy a gun either way - do you think the future that comes to be was lucky prediction? Or market manipulation?
Would you rather have us manipulate that market? Or not?
What do you think would happen in the tech industry if we took the position that the singularity was going to happen in 2029 or not going to happen in 2028, and we staked 1 billion dollars on it happening accordingly. We would have created an incentive in a futures market for someone to take the opposite side of our action, and try to do it faster. If the singularity happened in 2028 because we took so much stupid beanie baby money and proclaimed that it was going to happen in 2029 - what just happened there? Did the winner of that bet in our futures market get lucky? Or did we just create a mechanism for greed to accelerate the end of human mortality because we said it would happen with money by staking the position that it wouldnt? What do you think would happen if we staked the temperature of the earth with that money that nearly destroyed it? What would happen if we staked the race to mars, or the moon? What if your opportunity was that no one had gone to the moon yet this year, and we had created a way to profit by just going to check that its still there? We would have created a global decentralized market for the challenges that we face as a species, and opportunity to optimize ourselves without needing permission to be the best versions we can be. All of these markets can be crowd funded into eternity for visa’s cut of your cup of coffee, and would grow infinitely from the failure of the previous moment in time until our disappointment and greed merge to collapse the infinite possibility of time and space, thus dreaming a better world into existence using man kind’s propensity for greed, and proven track record of being disappointing.
We believe that this will potentially cause dramatic harm to the crypto economy, and broader economy as we know if for a short time. We believe our system is capable of growing the coins in our custody at a rate well above 1.5% per day, because we are currently growing at 3% per day. The power of exponential growth is significant. Likely, more than you can imagine. Consider than 1 dollar today will be 38 next year at 1% growth per day. It will be over 50 at 1.1%, and at 3% growth per day, 1 dollar becomes almost 50,000 in a year. This is the data that assures me that I don’t really need your help, only would like it. Based on the coins in our custody now, and our present rate of growth and innovation, our projections put us at owning the bulk of coins in circulation in the next 19 years. But – if we were to push that timeline even a little bit, by increasing that pile of coins in the present, we accelerate the timeline exponentially. And if we increase the resources in our control by quite a bit… we believe that we will accomplish our goal in the next 2 years.
The Goal
When our Computer Science Appreciation Club has accumulated enough of the coins in the network, and wrung every bit of value that exists only as a result of greed and speculation by those who have no desire to ever use these networks, we are going to do another magic trick.
In addition to accelerating human accomplishment with the power of hope, dreams, and greed. We’re going to take all or some of the coins in our control, and we’re going to collateralize them in a money market very much like the one we are currently using to impose our will on the cryptocurrency ecosystem. We are going to issue a new coin, backed by all the coins we had accumulated previously to create a stable, immutable, uncontrollable, uncensorable, globally available currency. Then, we’re going to send the keys of an individual wallet address to every man woman and child on the planet with some of that coin in it. And we are going to put some more of that coin in it every day. So that at no point, will there be a day where someone can say they did not have two nickels to rub together. We believe no one will ever say they didn’t have two hundred dollar bills together, when we are successful, ever again.
But this is not a selfless act by my merry band of misfits and pirates. Quite the contrary. We believe that nearly everyone on the planet that we interact with is disappointing. That the chimpanzee meat computer of our present hardware is ill suited to optimizing for the future in the present paradigm. We are giving away this money at that point, so that everyone can stop being such a disappointment to us. We are tired of the experience where an hourly employee gives us bad customer service because they are not paid enough to put up with our bullshit. We hope to make a world where people interact with each other because they want to, not because they have to. We are going to be filthy rich, when we are successful, or for that matter if we fail, my band of misfits. And we are worried when that happens about how long before it is that men with guns come for what is ours. We don’t know if these men with guns will come from the governments of the world, or from those envying what we have.
We seek to become the golden goose of the planet, and in return we would like to not fear slaughter while we try this. In this arrangement, we look only for your cooperation, and in return, will share an infinite sum of golden eggs with you, and everyone you know. And when we do this, we will not fear the envy of our neighbors, nor the governments who command the armies it would take to stop us. We will protect the people from their governments, and themselves. And in time, we hope the governments will likewise protect us from their people, though letting go of power will no doubt be hard to swallow. The only thing that can stop us from doing this is if someone buys the coins that give us power from us. And in doing so, would give us the wealth we need to accomplish these things in the real world. If we are not bought out, we will accumulate enough coins in the Ethereum Network that we can impose our will upon it, until we can deliver on our promises of a better world because we control it completely.
In these sense, we have already won. A better world is already here, as certainly as we have already dreamed the path to it. We plan on out-staking a better world into existence, regardless of what the future currently holds in store for us now. In short, we are going to lie to an unbreakable trustless system until it births the world we’re lying about into the realm of what is real. In shorter, we are going to believe our bullshit more than you cannot believe it, until we have delivered what we promised.
The Problem
The problem with growing as fast as the control our Computer Science Appreciation Club is over the Ethereum Network is that its too fast. We’re growing our sum of coins so fast, that to an outside observer you might think we were a hedge fund of some sort at best. But at worst, you might think we were a criminal enterprise. Legitimate enterprises don’t grow at 1% or more daily infinitely, but we do. And if you were not as educated as you are, now, at this point in reading this, when you saw how “rich” we were, you might think someone should try to stop it. We would ask, for your sake, and our own, that you don’t – we don’t need you to do anything, and the world is going to get better from here.
The problem is that if we were a hedge fund, which we aren’t, then we would need to file paperwork to take control of other people’s funds. If these were securities, the acts we were going to commit would be best exemplified in Wolf of Wall Street, but we’re going to do it on a much greater scale with computers. Lucky for us, these coins are not securities, they are less regulated than the gold in World of Warcraft you can buy with your credit card, or the skins in League of Legends. These coins are worth nothing, and everything, at the same time.
But the bigger problem, is that I cannot stop you from sending “money” to my “hedge fund” when/if you sent ether to my wallet address where we are running this experiment. It’s a decentralized system, and its open source, and completely public, if we tried to hide it would only work for so long until an internet detective found it. If someone was to find the address of our computer science appreciation club, we could not stop them from sending coins there. But, since we cannot stop them, we would like them not to waste their time looking – the address is this on the Ethereum Network:
0xCDF449b5c9Bd2A725319163C3E7f2d7222c4d8c9
We have the best legal minds on the planet trying to solve this puzzle with us, and we’ll get the paperwork straight soon – if the Winklevoss Twins don’t think it’s a conflict of interest.
If reading this letter, you find your brain to be so tickled by it - that regardless of the forces that seek to keep us from accumulating enough resources to do this in two years, you wish to believe in it more than those opposing forces, and in doing so stake your opinion about what the future you are going to live will be, I would not ask you to waste a moment of your life looking for us, because we are here to be found. We cannot count our coins as fast as they grow, but our collective efforts will be carved into the eternal stone of the Ethereum network, and I promise we’re going to give back all of these coins to the world, when we’re done fixing a few things.
But there is another problem, and its far worse than making “money” too fast - just as we are going to bet that no one goes to the moon until someone does every year forever just for fun, it is possible to bet on the absence of a war until a war exists because your certainty manifests it into being to spite you. The same market we hope to keep the world at peace, and put their fears to rest from the uncertainty of where we’re going next is also a mechanism to game our system, and bet on a war happening to get rich. But there is a way to stop this – we’re going to accumulate the majority of the REP tokens, and if we have 51% of the circulation, if someone tries to beat us at our own game and bring a war into existence – then we would be able to stop the unstoppable machine from making them rich. We will also have the wallet addresses of the people who needed the insurance policy we are going to unfairly deny, to make them whole, and they would have neighbors with means to support them while we unfucked the pooch. We would have a failsafe to prevent a war from coming to be, because we are so sure there will not be one that it might happen. This, above all else, will back the new currency we are going to issue to the planet. Our new currency will not be backed by gold, or equity, or faith in a flawed system. It we be backed by trust of mankind invested back into itself that we will not go back to a system that will tolerate scarcity, or war, or hunger in exchange for the certainty of the absence of these things. No one will need to ask what is in our vault, or need to audit it, until the day comes where maybe someone will try to beat us at our own game. If that happens – we’re going to need the world to give back the currency we gave it as our collective reward for our cooperation, to free the tool we need to stop violent men from becoming rich men at the cost of a world without poverty, because it will be the immutable collateral backing the currency we are going to give you.
As a disclaimer, Im not somebody who has the background you might think someone should have for this – Im just a hobbit. Im not a hedge fund manager, or a computer science engineer. I raise pigs, and ducks, and geese that need some help, too – because we aren’t eating them enough to keep them existing in our food supply. It is a more fun paradox than this, and I get to solve that one by cooking dinner for some friends, and telling stories when this adventure is over. It feels a little like The Shire there, where I’ve been hiding melting my ego with psychedelics in the sunshine while salting pork, and listening to podcasts from Rogan, Duncan, Bart Chystler, Tom and Krista, some tinfoil hat guys, and seeing how abundant a life can be given only a little bit of hopium and room for creativity, and Im eager to get there and back, again. I very much look forward to seeing what we’re all capable of, when we’re given a chance. But we’re going to have to put a little faith in a system that doesn’t need faith to operate - so that we can fix a different system that has never needed it more. I think we’re going to be able to do that for us all, but I might very well be lying to you, and not know it yet – at least, that’s the plan.
Ironically, salting pork is what brought me to understand what is worth something, and what isn’t. When they used to talk about a “salary” or say that you were “worth your salt” was because all that you needed to live was enough salt to keep your meat from rotting when you cured it into bacon and hams at the end of the season. The salt’s value wasn’t while it was in the bag, it was while it was preserving your food when times were hard and things were scarce. In the modern time, a salary is what gets bigger when a emloyer make his employees poorer. Now, we have made laws to respect each other by race and religion and where who-sticks-what-where, but made it legal and standard to reduce someone’s value to an integer value of currency per moment in time, and the currency is backed by oppression of man-against-man (chicks, too). To increase your integer value per moment in time, that gain must come from another? Are we the only people who think this is inherently disrespectful to your fellow man even if you don’t call him a “fag” to his face like we used to when we were kids and it meant “I love you, man – but Im too afraid of being called gay to say it”.
In the present what is perhaps the most scarce of all, are places where you are free to be an animal at all, let alone places where you are free to be the lion you might be and not know it. We are so caught up in having agreed upon contracts so that we don’t get fucked, that we don’t have trust or honor that is held between lions when the zebra meat is abundant and they eat shoulder to shoulder without worry of each other. We live in a time where there is quite literally more deer on the planet than there has been in some time, and yet we imagine something would keep us as lions from preying on them in the real world. But, to us, as long as you are giving the animals fair chase, there is no time that feeding yourself as the king of the jungle is wrong, if you are hungry. And Im here to tell the people who think they can stop us, that we are giving you fair chase. We will be in every exchange on the planet soon, giving you chances to get on or off this train. And when you buy, it will be from us. When you sell, it will be to us. Your only safe market is the door out of here in ETH/USD and BTC/USD because we will not be selling our coins, only buying more. And every time you do anything other than leave your coins on the table, and take that worthless paper money with you, we will grow that much stronger. If you buy the coins we want, you will give us power in the real world. If you sell them, we will get them cheaper. When your fear or FOMO has sent you zigging… or for that matter zagging, one of my lions will catch you. We are not asking for your support by way of co-operation, we are asking for it by absence of resistance from a better world than this one. If you will not give us your coins, then we ask that you do not trade them. Keep the keys, or burn them and count them as your contribution without us knowing my band of pirates owes you a favor. Our only compromise is to remove them from circulation, as in this decentralized system, that is the only place we cannot reach them. But co-operation will get us there far, far sooner. To quote a most wise computer scientist, “Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.” We have re-programmed the Kobayashi Maru. My fellowship and I have set out for Mount Doom. And you will be skeptical of us, all the way until you aren’t. And then, I would ask for only your belief – perhaps in no one more then yourselves, that you could be the type of person to rise to a challenge that will face us that we haven’t seen yet. But maybe you can rise to face the challenges that have always been faced, by mother and fathers, and children – spending time together, eating real and wholesome food in good company as often as you can. Those challenges are the simple ones, and we have had the answer for longer than we’ve lost them. You just need to be worth your salt.
If you need someone with a stronger background to support my position, I cant give that to you right now, because Satoshi Nakamoto himself only 8 years of experience. But someone smarter than me said something that sent me down this road while I had smoked enough to dissolve the prison I had made for myself, and it might help you. You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA
I am the son of this good, good, man - who cannot or will not believe this is possible. https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterhchapman/ I am the grand son, of this grand, old, man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Chapman I am perhaps the longest living descendant of an unbroken chain of criminals and explorers on the planet, and I have some new ground to break to give those great men a complex.
My father is the former CEO of Ray Kurzwiel's largest portfolio holding (who first conceptualized the singularity). He now works a few steps away from Jeff Bezos. And if you do not believe me, dont worry, because he didnt get past the first paragraph of this story before telling my I had left a bread-crumb trail of crime to my door.
But I have melted my ego time and time again under the simmering heat of psychedelics, standing alone in a field with pigs, but also in the company of minds longing to break free when they tune into this podcast. And time and time again when I have nothing of an ego to call my own, I cannot shake the feeling that I am the chance event needed to occur within an economic engine that must break so it can be rebuilt better. Outside of the Duncan Trussel Family Hour, I think the Joe Rogan subreddit might be the largest and most public reserve of belief in things that have no reason to believe in aside from because they might work, and I am one of you.
I have no intention of allowing my father's disbelief to become the first gate keeper I have encountered that can keep me from asking Ray Kurzwiel to try to let us stake the Singularity into existence by betting it cant happen in our life time. I have no intention of letting my father stop me from asking Bezos to let me bet that no one will go to the moon, until someone rises to the occasion to prove him wrong.
I need your help, and this is as far as I've gotten, but I dont know if I can go further alone. I seek fellowship, on this quest, and I have come here to what is potentially the Rivendel of our time - Reddit.
submitted by CompSciAppreciation to Augur [link] [comments]

I think the answer is yes. I cant post on the subs about decentralized censorship resistant tech, because the tech is censoring my words by judging the age of the account as the validation test for their right to stay the words on the internet. If that isnt proof, read more.

Hello, friends. I would like to tell you a story to beat all stories. There once was a hobbit, who lived in a hole… and this is a retelling of a very old story, or allegory, as I hope you will contact us afterwards, of how he got out of the cave he made for himself.
The Plan
We are going to monopolize a series of decentralized crypto currency networks, more specifically utility token networks, that currently exist in a state of simultaneously being over valued, and under valued, at the same time. This result was not expected at the outset of the creation of the projects that we are going to explore, but I assure you, this is the case. It is very possible that we’re looking at the cutting edge of computer science – potentially, we are looking at a rip in the space-time continuum – but what is most definite is that we’re looking at an arbitrage opportunity of historic significance. It is also potentially going to be the largest robbery perpetrated against the most deserving victims, resulting in the most benefit for the most people since Robin Hood took Prince John’s last shilling.
What Im going to describe is a little bit classical investing, a little bit of The Matrix, and a little bit Oceans 11. Its also going to be a little bit Darwinist, a little bit Wolf of Wall Street, and very self-serving all the way to the end of it, where it becomes the most beautiful gift humanity ever gave to itself. But the good part, at the very end, only happens if we can trust each other to break an unbreakable trustless system. And after we’re done doing that, we’re going to have to do something that is even more unheard of in the study of history, and a thing commonly only found in fantasy. What we’re going to try to create is the most similar to 9/11, in the sense that it is the opposite of it. Our data has found, through the study of human history, that a small group of people sufficiently funded with a relatively small sum of money are capable of taking that money, and turning it into a catalyst that results in a historic event that shapes the future for many years to come. The common term for this is a catastrophe, or cataclysmic event.
But the thesis of this computer science experiment that we’re already undertaking, but seek the support of in reaching out to you, is that we can create the opposite of a catastrophe. The term for this was coined first by JRR Tolkien – he referred to this even as a “eucatastrophe” or a “a sudden and favorable resolution of events in a story” but perhaps is most commonly known to the public as “a happy ending” – he describes this event in the The Lord of the Rings, when Frodo drops the ring into Mount Doom.
I believe it is possible to dream a happy ending into existence using computer logic and the greed of speculation about the future, rather than the real world investing in it that our market system was supposed to provide - but this is how the story begins.
Orientation
The first crypto currency, Bitcoin, is only 8 years old, and at the end of this document, you will likely understand more about crypto currency than the people who created the first one. This is possible because it is an entire sector that has been more pushed forward by dreamers and curious minds than it has been developed by venture capital interests.
Groups that demand immediate and consistent profitable returns, and measure those returns against the results of other ventures that have been agreed on to be the benchmark of success would suggest that double digit annual returns are unsustainable but its best to enjoy them while it lasts. But, we have found, using crypto currencies, that the returns traditional investing earn in a year can be gained in a day, when occupying enough market share of a market. We do this using automation to interact with the world markets in a specific way that provides liquidity and stability in markets that are traditionally the most volatile in the world. As the price moves, we tax that movement, and extract value for ourselves by way of profits from trading, and create value for the broader ecosystem in the form of price support, thus preventing the market from bottoming out (or at least falling slower because of our participation), as well as creating price stability during market highs, allowing people with non-automated trading systems to capitalize on longer periods of positive growth without missing the chance to sell while the market is up.
While our automation has sufficient funds to provide liquidity in these exchanges, we are day over day getting between 100 and 300 bps/day in earnings. To continue providing liquidity to these markets when our own reserves of coins are low, we are using a decentralized smart contract that provides credit in exchange for collateral and interest on the resources lent. By using this method, we are able to keep liquidity in these markets, and our trading system maximally effective, regardless of price movement or our own holdings of coins, and the interest on renting the coins to do it is almost negligible.
Furthermore, these markets are “utility tokens” exchanges. That is to say, these tokens only represent resources a computer network should allocate to a user based on the size of his coin holdings. There are no traditional metrics to evaluate these coins and their value, as the market price of them is simply the intersection of supply and demand on a moment to moment basis as determined by a decentralized network of users who have or want them. In short, they will never be so cheap that the price of the desk the computers sit on is greater than the price of owning a stake in that desk, because they do not represent ownership of that desk at all. Likewise, when the price is astronomically high, it can never be deemed too high, because the network it represents resource allocation of does not now, nor ever will be profitable or unprofitable. It simply will continue to be there, and allow you to interact with it, based on if you have coins for that network and how many. It is more important to understand that these coins are NOT SECURITIES than it is to understand what those coins are at all.
Going forward, a great deal of this plan and discussion will be metaphor and perhaps come across as hyperbole. The reason for this is because the systems that we are talking about are simply shuffling zeroes and ones to each other, and if I gave you the math for what is going to happen expressed in those terms, there are few or no minds on the planet that could follow the thread of this discussion in those terms at all in the context of how much data the network has if you tried to aggregate it.
The very people who create and code these networks do not even interact with them on these terms of zeroes and ones, but rather in a coding language. In this sense, even the people coding these systems are only using metaphor by interacting using the programming languages that they do. And so, in order to make this slightly less boring, and more readable, I hope you will forgive the use of language that is more descriptive than it is literal, but what is most important to remember along the way is that nothing about what is being described is a crime as the Security Exchange Commission would see it, because none of these things are securities at all.
What is the Bitcoin Network?
The first bitcoin was created 8 years ago as a result of a cryptographic computer science experiment in which a group of people who referred to themselves as “the cryptopunks” sought to create a decentralized and censorship resistant network that could keep a ledger of the location of all the bitcoins and their ownership in real time without the need for any 3rd party involvement or consent.
The entity attributed with the creation of Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology is known only as “Satoshi Nakamoto” which is commonly agreed to be a pseudonym for a person or group of persons. No one has heard from “Satoshi Nakamoto” since “he” disappeared after a colleague on the Bitcoin team sent him an email saying that the CIA had reached out to him, and wanted to talk about their research.
The security of the blockchain is provided through “proof of work” in which a network of computers around the planet attempt to use brute for number crunching to find the sum of the interior angles of a triangle in non-Euclidean geometry based on 3 points on a sphere. The interior angle of that triangle are unpredictable, because unlike in traditional geometry where the sum of the angles is always 180 degrees, when 3 points on a triangle are placed on a sphere the range can fall anywhere above 180 degrees, but not equal to it, and as high as or equal to 540 degrees. To perhaps exemplify how a triangle can have 540 degrees, consider that if you and 2 friends formed a straight line on earth, that the interior angle between each of you is 180 degrees, and there are 3 of you, and the definition of a triangle is 3 points on any given plane, thus the angle of the triangle you formed when standing in a line is 540 degrees, and cannot be any greater. The interior angle of the previous block in the chain is the determining factor in the placement of the next 3 points to be solved for in the following. The first machine to solve the question of “How many degrees are inside this triangle?” by guessing is given the privilege of taking the highest bidders for his time from the market, and performing the protocols desired by way of recording changes to the block chain, while other participants in the system are prevented from recording in this way. As the next block cannot be solved without knowing the solution to the present one, the system is trustless and immutable – it cannot be tampered with, and is governed only by math, with no gate keepers.
What is the Ethereum Network?
The Ethereum Network, or Ethereum Virtual Machine, is a set of computer protocols with a heavy emphasis on determinism as the backbone it was built on. These protocols determine the outcome of an interaction with the blockchain, and the creation of an ever-evolving record of the location and allocation of the resources these systems are built to account for.
Ethereum also has the ability for users to interact and create decentralized “smart contracts” which serve to govern the ownership and allocation of coins as agreed upon by two parties based upon outcomes that don’t require a 3rd party to execute. Metaphorically, you can think of this as an ATM, where no bank teller interacts with you, but rather a user only interacts with a machine that allows you to deposit money in your savings account, and borrow on a credit card with a limit proportional to your savings account. You could also think of it as a dooms-day device, that is going to act the way its going to act with no way to stop it once events are put in motion.
Other users of the smart contract can see how you have interacted with it because the blockchain is public and visible to the world, and if they would like, can accept the terms of that agreement, and at no time can anyone other than each of the individual users control what the users are doing. In short, there are no gatekeepers in Ethereum. There is only what exists in the network by way of code, and the infinite room to put it there if you would like to and are willing to pay for the electricity needed to carve it into existence and be maintained for the rest of time, but this is a one time payment which costs less than your credit card skims from starbucks when you buy a coffee.
What is staking?
Staking is an idea seeking to resolve the problem of energy waste that is seen in proof of work. The problem with proof of work is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to run the level of computation that crypto networks currently use, and all but 1 of those computations actually resulted in change at all. To solve this problem, a staking system could be put in place in which rather than randomly guessing as we have been, a user would put up collateral in order to act as verification entity, where the trust of that individual’s word was determined by how large of a stake that individual might have. Anyone who felt that the outcome of an event in the blockchain was being mis-reported could put a larger stake up or proportion thereof, and which ever outcome is the most heavily staked by the user base would be deemed the “true” outcome, because there is seemingly no value is attempting to stake a “lie” or “untruth” if a greater consensus could be made, as the economic incentive is to side with the truth than the lie.
What is Augur? What is REP?
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform. The limits for what kind of market can be made is infinite, and censorship proof, as a result of being hosted on the Ethereum Network. Users stake their REP, short for Reputation, in order to report the resolution of market outcomes. Because Ethereum has no way of drawing information from the outside world without the outside world participating with it intentionally, this hurdle is overcome by allowing users to report themselves. In exchange for doing this reporting work, people who hold REP are given a small amount of the volume of those markets (as set by the market creators) and these dividends are paid in Ether (ETH).
So an example of what kind of market could be found within Augur is “Who will win the game this weekend between the Eagles and Packers?” or “Who is going to win the next election?” or “Will the rainfall this year in Chicago exceed 22 inches?” or even “When will mankind cure death?”. There is no approval process in creating a market, only a loose form users must stick to, and the resource requirements to maintain that market on the blockchain – again, infinitely, for the rest of time if desired, in exchange for a one time payment in the present to cover the cost of electricity to manifest your will or curiosity on the network.
In the time between the creation and resolution of these markets, users can see the likelihood of the outcome of any given result represented by the confidence in that result numerically using Ether and the volume staking one outcome or another. This type of prediction oracle is called “The wisdom of the crowd” which says that it is more accurate to ask the crowd than any one person for their opinion of that outcome, as no one person has all the information on the system in question.
Computer Science and the Space-Time Continuum
We live in an uncertain time. In the very real world we live in people in our country are arming themselves against their neighbors. Gun sales at record highs. Racial tension. What would happen if my band of pirates staked 1,000,000 ETH in a prediction market paying 100,000:1 that we will all love each other and not have a race war. Do you think people who could see that uncensorable prediction market would feel more at ease, and perhaps not buy a gun, or fear their neighbor less? Do you think if we were correct about that prediction market that we would have gotten lucky, or would we have believed our own prediction into existence and created a situation where we are not only staking the future, but creating it by using greed as the fuel? If a person thought in spite of my band of misfits prediction market that there still would be a race war this year, do you think that they would spend 1,000 dollars on an AR-15 to feel safer, or stake the opposite position with those funds in that market against my declaration of peace, and rather have the keys to a wallet that can be accessed anywhere in the world with 100,000,000 dollars to buy their safety if they are ever living in a world where a gun might help?
Considering that my band of misfits doesnt need the money, nearly so much as we need a better safer world, and will have created an incentive for you to feel safer, and not buy a gun either way - do you think the future that comes to be was lucky prediction? Or market manipulation?
Would you rather have us manipulate that market? Or not?
What do you think would happen in the tech industry if we took the position that the singularity was going to happen in 2029 or not going to happen in 2028, and we staked 1 billion dollars on it happening accordingly. We would have created an incentive in a futures market for someone to take the opposite side of our action, and try to do it faster. If the singularity happened in 2028 because we took so much stupid beanie baby money and proclaimed that it was going to happen in 2029 - what just happened there? Did the winner of that bet in our futures market get lucky? Or did we just create a mechanism for greed to accelerate the end of human mortality because we said it would happen with money by staking the position that it wouldnt? What do you think would happen if we staked the temperature of the earth with that money that nearly destroyed it? What would happen if we staked the race to mars, or the moon? What if your opportunity was that no one had gone to the moon yet this year, and we had created a way to profit by just going to check that its still there? We would have created a global decentralized market for the challenges that we face as a species, and opportunity to optimize ourselves without needing permission to be the best versions we can be. All of these markets can be crowd funded into eternity for visa’s cut of your cup of coffee, and would grow infinitely from the failure of the previous moment in time until our disappointment and greed merge to collapse the infinite possibility of time and space, thus dreaming a better world into existence using man kind’s propensity for greed, and proven track record of being disappointing.
We believe that this will potentially cause dramatic harm to the crypto economy, and broader economy as we know if for a short time. We believe our system is capable of growing the coins in our custody at a rate well above 1.5% per day, because we are currently growing at 3% per day. The power of exponential growth is significant. Likely, more than you can imagine. Consider than 1 dollar today will be 38 next year at 1% growth per day. It will be over 50 at 1.1%, and at 3% growth per day, 1 dollar becomes almost 50,000 in a year. This is the data that assures me that I don’t really need your help, only would like it. Based on the coins in our custody now, and our present rate of growth and innovation, our projections put us at owning the bulk of coins in circulation in the next 19 years. But – if we were to push that timeline even a little bit, by increasing that pile of coins in the present, we accelerate the timeline exponentially. And if we increase the resources in our control by quite a bit… we believe that we will accomplish our goal in the next 2 years.
The Goal
When our Computer Science Appreciation Club has accumulated enough of the coins in the network, and wrung every bit of value that exists only as a result of greed and speculation by those who have no desire to ever use these networks, we are going to do another magic trick.
In addition to accelerating human accomplishment with the power of hope, dreams, and greed. We’re going to take all or some of the coins in our control, and we’re going to collateralize them in a money market very much like the one we are currently using to impose our will on the cryptocurrency ecosystem. We are going to issue a new coin, backed by all the coins we had accumulated previously to create a stable, immutable, uncontrollable, uncensorable, globally available currency. Then, we’re going to send the keys of an individual wallet address to every man woman and child on the planet with some of that coin in it. And we are going to put some more of that coin in it every day. So that at no point, will there be a day where someone can say they did not have two nickels to rub together. We believe no one will ever say they didn’t have two hundred dollar bills together, when we are successful, ever again.
But this is not a selfless act by my merry band of misfits and pirates. Quite the contrary. We believe that nearly everyone on the planet that we interact with is disappointing. That the chimpanzee meat computer of our present hardware is ill suited to optimizing for the future in the present paradigm. We are giving away this money at that point, so that everyone can stop being such a disappointment to us. We are tired of the experience where an hourly employee gives us bad customer service because they are not paid enough to put up with our bullshit. We hope to make a world where people interact with each other because they want to, not because they have to. We are going to be filthy rich, when we are successful, or for that matter if we fail, my band of misfits. And we are worried when that happens about how long before it is that men with guns come for what is ours. We don’t know if these men with guns will come from the governments of the world, or from those envying what we have.
We seek to become the golden goose of the planet, and in return we would like to not fear slaughter while we try this. In this arrangement, we look only for your cooperation, and in return, will share an infinite sum of golden eggs with you, and everyone you know. And when we do this, we will not fear the envy of our neighbors, nor the governments who command the armies it would take to stop us. We will protect the people from their governments, and themselves. And in time, we hope the governments will likewise protect us from their people, though letting go of power will no doubt be hard to swallow. The only thing that can stop us from doing this is if someone buys the coins that give us power from us. And in doing so, would give us the wealth we need to accomplish these things in the real world. If we are not bought out, we will accumulate enough coins in the Ethereum Network that we can impose our will upon it, until we can deliver on our promises of a better world because we control it completely.
In these sense, we have already won. A better world is already here, as certainly as we have already dreamed the path to it. We plan on out-staking a better world into existence, regardless of what the future currently holds in store for us now. In short, we are going to lie to an unbreakable trustless system until it births the world we’re lying about into the realm of what is real. In shorter, we are going to believe our bullshit more than you cannot believe it, until we have delivered what we promised.
The Problem
The problem with growing as fast as the control our Computer Science Appreciation Club is over the Ethereum Network is that its too fast. We’re growing our sum of coins so fast, that to an outside observer you might think we were a hedge fund of some sort at best. But at worst, you might think we were a criminal enterprise. Legitimate enterprises don’t grow at 1% or more daily infinitely, but we do. And if you were not as educated as you are, now, at this point in reading this, when you saw how “rich” we were, you might think someone should try to stop it. We would ask, for your sake, and our own, that you don’t – we don’t need you to do anything, and the world is going to get better from here.
The problem is that if we were a hedge fund, which we aren’t, then we would need to file paperwork to take control of other people’s funds. If these were securities, the acts we were going to commit would be best exemplified in Wolf of Wall Street, but we’re going to do it on a much greater scale with computers. Lucky for us, these coins are not securities, they are less regulated than the gold in World of Warcraft you can buy with your credit card, or the skins in League of Legends. These coins are worth nothing, and everything, at the same time.
But the bigger problem, is that I cannot stop you from sending “money” to my “hedge fund” when/if you sent ether to my wallet address where we are running this experiment. It’s a decentralized system, and its open source, and completely public, if we tried to hide it would only work for so long until an internet detective found it. If someone was to find the address of our computer science appreciation club, we could not stop them from sending coins there. But, since we cannot stop them, we would like them not to waste their time looking – the address is this on the Ethereum Network:
0xCDF449b5c9Bd2A725319163C3E7f2d7222c4d8c9
We have the best legal minds on the planet trying to solve this puzzle with us, and we’ll get the paperwork straight soon – if the Winklevoss Twins don’t think it’s a conflict of interest.
If reading this letter, you find your brain to be so tickled by it - that regardless of the forces that seek to keep us from accumulating enough resources to do this in two years, you wish to believe in it more than those opposing forces, and in doing so stake your opinion about what the future you are going to live will be, I would not ask you to waste a moment of your life looking for us, because we are here to be found. We cannot count our coins as fast as they grow, but our collective efforts will be carved into the eternal stone of the Ethereum network, and I promise we’re going to give back all of these coins to the world, when we’re done fixing a few things.
But there is another problem, and its far worse than making “money” too fast - just as we are going to bet that no one goes to the moon until someone does every year forever just for fun, it is possible to bet on the absence of a war until a war exists because your certainty manifests it into being to spite you. The same market we hope to keep the world at peace, and put their fears to rest from the uncertainty of where we’re going next is also a mechanism to game our system, and bet on a war happening to get rich. But there is a way to stop this – we’re going to accumulate the majority of the REP tokens, and if we have 51% of the circulation, if someone tries to beat us at our own game and bring a war into existence – then we would be able to stop the unstoppable machine from making them rich. We will also have the wallet addresses of the people who needed the insurance policy we are going to unfairly deny, to make them whole, and they would have neighbors with means to support them while we unfucked the pooch. We would have a failsafe to prevent a war from coming to be, because we are so sure there will not be one that it might happen. This, above all else, will back the new currency we are going to issue to the planet. Our new currency will not be backed by gold, or equity, or faith in a flawed system. It we be backed by trust of mankind invested back into itself that we will not go back to a system that will tolerate scarcity, or war, or hunger in exchange for the certainty of the absence of these things. No one will need to ask what is in our vault, or need to audit it, until the day comes where maybe someone will try to beat us at our own game. If that happens – we’re going to need the world to give back the currency we gave it as our collective reward for our cooperation, to free the tool we need to stop violent men from becoming rich men at the cost of a world without poverty, because it will be the immutable collateral backing the currency we are going to give you.
As a disclaimer, Im not somebody who has the background you might think someone should have for this – Im just a hobbit. Im not a hedge fund manager, or a computer science engineer. I raise pigs, and ducks, and geese that need some help, too – because we aren’t eating them enough to keep them existing in our food supply. It is a more fun paradox than this, and I get to solve that one by cooking dinner for some friends, and telling stories when this adventure is over. It feels a little like The Shire there, where I’ve been hiding melting my ego with psychedelics in the sunshine while salting pork, and listening to podcasts from Rogan, Duncan, Bart Chystler, Tom and Krista, some tinfoil hat guys, and seeing how abundant a life can be given only a little bit of hopium and room for creativity, and Im eager to get there and back, again. I very much look forward to seeing what we’re all capable of, when we’re given a chance. But we’re going to have to put a little faith in a system that doesn’t need faith to operate - so that we can fix a different system that has never needed it more. I think we’re going to be able to do that for us all, but I might very well be lying to you, and not know it yet – at least, that’s the plan.
Ironically, salting pork is what brought me to understand what is worth something, and what isn’t. When they used to talk about a “salary” or say that you were “worth your salt” was because all that you needed to live was enough salt to keep your meat from rotting when you cured it into bacon and hams at the end of the season. The salt’s value wasn’t while it was in the bag, it was while it was preserving your food when times were hard and things were scarce. In the modern time, a salary is what gets bigger when a emloyer make his employees poorer. Now, we have made laws to respect each other by race and religion and where who-sticks-what-where, but made it legal and standard to reduce someone’s value to an integer value of currency per moment in time, and the currency is backed by oppression of man-against-man (chicks, too). To increase your integer value per moment in time, that gain must come from another? Are we the only people who think this is inherently disrespectful to your fellow man even if you don’t call him a “fag” to his face like we used to when we were kids and it meant “I love you, man – but Im too afraid of being called gay to say it”.
In the present what is perhaps the most scarce of all, are places where you are free to be an animal at all, let alone places where you are free to be the lion you might be and not know it. We are so caught up in having agreed upon contracts so that we don’t get fucked, that we don’t have trust or honor that is held between lions when the zebra meat is abundant and they eat shoulder to shoulder without worry of each other. We live in a time where there is quite literally more deer on the planet than there has been in some time, and yet we imagine something would keep us as lions from preying on them in the real world. But, to us, as long as you are giving the animals fair chase, there is no time that feeding yourself as the king of the jungle is wrong, if you are hungry. And Im here to tell the people who think they can stop us, that we are giving you fair chase. We will be in every exchange on the planet soon, giving you chances to get on or off this train. And when you buy, it will be from us. When you sell, it will be to us. Your only safe market is the door out of here in ETH/USD and BTC/USD because we will not be selling our coins, only buying more. And every time you do anything other than leave your coins on the table, and take that worthless paper money with you, we will grow that much stronger. If you buy the coins we want, you will give us power in the real world. If you sell them, we will get them cheaper. When your fear or FOMO has sent you zigging… or for that matter zagging, one of my lions will catch you. We are not asking for your support by way of co-operation, we are asking for it by absence of resistance from a better world than this one. If you will not give us your coins, then we ask that you do not trade them. Keep the keys, or burn them and count them as your contribution without us knowing my band of pirates owes you a favor. Our only compromise is to remove them from circulation, as in this decentralized system, that is the only place we cannot reach them. But co-operation will get us there far, far sooner. To quote a most wise computer scientist, “Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.” We have re-programmed the Kobayashi Maru. My fellowship and I have set out for Mount Doom. And you will be skeptical of us, all the way until you aren’t. And then, I would ask for only your belief – perhaps in no one more then yourselves, that you could be the type of person to rise to a challenge that will face us that we haven’t seen yet. But maybe you can rise to face the challenges that have always been faced, by mother and fathers, and children – spending time together, eating real and wholesome food in good company as often as you can. Those challenges are the simple ones, and we have had the answer for longer than we’ve lost them. You just need to be worth your salt.
If you need someone with a stronger background to support my position, I cant give that to you right now, because Satoshi Nakamoto himself only 8 years of experience. But someone smarter than me said something that sent me down this road while I had smoked enough to dissolve the prison I had made for myself, and it might help you. You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA
I am the son of this good, good, man - who cannot or will not believe this is possible. https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterhchapman/ I am the grand son, of this grand, old, man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Chapman I am perhaps the longest living descendant of an unbroken chain of criminals and explorers on the planet, and I have some new ground to break to give those great men a complex.
My father is the former CEO of Ray Kurzwiel's largest portfolio holding (who first conceptualized the singularity). He now works a few steps away from Jeff Bezos. And if you do not believe me, dont worry, because he didnt get past the first paragraph of this story before telling my I had left a bread-crumb trail of crime to my door.
But I have melted my ego time and time again under the simmering heat of psychedelics, standing alone in a field with pigs, but also in the company of minds longing to break free when they tune into this podcast. And time and time again when I have nothing of an ego to call my own, I cannot shake the feeling that I am the chance event needed to occur within an economic engine that must break so it can be rebuilt better. Outside of the Duncan Trussel Family Hour, I think the Joe Rogan subreddit might be the largest and most public reserve of belief in things that have no reason to believe in aside from because they might work, and I am one of you.
I have no intention of allowing my father's disbelief to become the first gate keeper I have encountered that can keep me from asking Ray Kurzwiel to try to let us stake the Singularity into existence by betting it cant happen in our life time. I have no intention of letting my father stop me from asking Bezos to let me bet that no one will go to the moon, until someone rises to the occasion to prove him wrong.
I need your help, and this is as far as I've gotten, but I dont know if I can go further alone. I seek fellowship, on this quest, and I have come here to what is potentially the Rivendel of our time - Reddit.
submitted by CompSciAppreciation to AWLIAS [link] [comments]

Current Bitcoin Carbon Emissions. The numbers. Can we discuss please?

I received a PM from a redditor about a old comment. His PM reads -
So back 10 months ago I posted this comment and you responded with the most reasoned response about the entire Bitcoin network emitting less carbon than a single 747. It made me feel much better about Bitcoin. It also confused me this past few weeks with people posting stories stating that Bitcoin will soon use nearly 0.1% of the world's energy and already consumes more power than every single solar panel in the entire world produces. Those two don't really square, so I looked back and the article you reference was from 2014. I'm curious if you've reevaluated your stance on bitcoin or perhaps have some insight that the current hysteria is just overblown?
Since I've spent the time doing some napkin math (I could be horribly wrong on this, someone please correct me!), I thought I should make this post public for everone to evaulate my maths and my reasoning.
First, I would just redirect to AA's great clip on the subject -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fExR-IKozOY
As for re-evaluating my position, yes, constantly. Im going to do this really quickly, so unsure of accuracy, but should give a rough ball park.
http://www.yousustain.com/footprint/howmuchco2?co2=761+tons
Says its about 761 tons for a 747 to fly 24 hrs.
https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-power-does-the-bitcoin-network-use-391280
Claims 1 watt per 1 second gigahash. Comes out to 343 mW per second. Thats 1234800 mW per hour, which equals 29635200 mWh for 24 hrs. The formula used to calculate megawatt-hours is Megawatt hours (MWh) = Megawatts (MW) x Hours (h). In this case, I've used 24 hours since we are comparing to 24 hours of a 747 flying, so 24 MWh. So currently btc mining has a rate of 1,234,800 per MWh.
Putting 29635200000 (previous mWh * 1000 for kWh) into this government calculator will give you caron comparisons. That calculator claims an equivilent of 2,481,717,074 gallons of gas consumed. Yes, thats nearly 2.5 billion.
To make this comparison more comprehensible....
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10
In 2017, about 143.85 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed2 in the United States, a daily average of about 391.40 million gallons (or about 9.32 million barrels per day).
This would be equivilent of 6.33 days of gasoline usage in the USA for a single day of mining.
So go go back to our airplane analogy, the carbon calculator says that many mW = 22,055,020 metric tons of carbon emitted.
I do recall looking into the airplane thing back when we were discussing it, and I remember looking at the numbers. Frankly, its impossible to believe those were accurate and im sorry. I should have double checked everything.
According to - https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/hash-rate
We had around "5EHash" in august of 2017, when that comment was made. We are now at 31EHash, over a 6x fold since that comment was made.
Now that we have the numbers out of the way, some things to consider...
These estimates are based upon the USA's carbon calculators which measures average carbon output based on the varying technologies in the US. According to the wiki the US only is around 12% (in 2016) for renewable energy.
So in general, our energy is pretty damn dirty and we put out a lot more carbon than we sequester.
In that AA video, he talks about the geolocation arbitrage used by miners. This makes a lot of sense. If you are going to invest 50-500 million into a mining operation, are you going to do it in a area where it costs 12 cents per hour (US average), or where it costs 3-4 cents per kwH? See -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2018/01/13/renewable-energy-cost-effective-fossil-fuels-2020/#1c69d08e4ff2
Obviously you are going to massively reduce your operational cost as that is what will lead your investment to become profitable.
Fortunately for us, and the world, many of these arbitrage opportunities are in hydroelectric and geothermal energy areas. These plants are designed to be future proofed, so enterprising mining congolmerates will move to areas where they can secure very cheap energy prices. When these companies are currently using 5-15 GwH for their cities, with 50 GwH capacity, they will happily sell their extra capacity to the mining operation since that is a very favorable economic incentive to all parties.
Another factor to consider is that for every single new ASIC design, they are becoming more energy efficient. So even though the hashrate is jumping, I would say the overall energy used by the network will plateau, if it has not already done so. With GMO and other giants like Samsung entering the mining design fray, this will only speed up energy efficiency.
None of this is intended to be a sidestepping of the facts - Clearly the bitcoin network uses a lot of energy. And when you have less regulated countries (china, India), it presents opportunities for locals to setup mining operations inside their locality, which then uses dirty energy, increasing carbon outputs.
The amount of carbon emissions per day (22,055,020 metric tons) that is above is obviously not very accurate when you account for these arbitrage opportunties. We know for a fact many of the largest mining colo's are situated near hydroelectric and Geothermal energy plants, which means that they are practically zero carbon emissions. Since we do not know the location of every miner, due to the decentralized unregulated nature of bitcoin, it is impossible to calculate how much of a reduction of tons of carbon we will get for that calculation.
But even if we are generous, and say 50% of all mining is done on renewables, that still leaves 11 million tons of carbon per day, a pretty staggering amount.
There is also much to hope for with scientists claiming we can be 100% renewable energy across the entire planet. Such as scientists setting to prove through empiracle data that it is feasible to convert the entire planet to 100% renewables. Though it is probably not realistic that this will happen quickly, or even at all. To give perspective, CFC's have been banned for decades and thought not in use for over a decade, yet recent data has shown levels are increasing. There will always be industry willing to destroy the world in the future for short term profit now.
We should also weigh the costs and benefits of this massive network. If bitcoin becomes adopted across the world as a currency, which if you look at places like Japan, it clearly is, then this will enable literal billions of people who are currently unbanked to join into the global financial ecosystem.
The personal financial soverignty that bitcoin brings is of incalcuable value. Whether the carbon emissions are worth these trade offs is a philosophical question that probably does not have an right or wrong answer.
Then we must also evaluate the carbon impact that the bitcoin network would have if cryptocurrencies were to replace traditional financial networks. There are some good analysis on the carbon footprint of banks, and bitcoin mining, coindesk has done several articles, see -
https://www.coindesk.com/microscope-conclusions-costs-bitcoin/
&
https://www.coindesk.com/microscope-true-costs-banking/
If we are properly to examine the impact that cryptocurrency carbon emissions have on society, then we should also examine the reduction of carbon that cryptocurrency networks will have upon the banking sector.
This site Claims AC & Heating results in 47.7 % of the entire USA's electricity usage. This example is just to present a understanding of how much energy these systems use.
How many Banks are there around the world that have their AC on 24/7? I can imagine just that number alone would lead to a staggering level of CO2 emissions. The coindesk article claims 591k bank branches around the world. The above aritcle claims 3.5k watts for a single central air unit. I had a family member that used to run a A/C business and I've been on top of many businesses. A bank will likely have several of those units to keep the place cool, I would estimate between 2-10 depending upon size.
In more good news, Bank branches are declining, and cryptocurrencies will only accelerate this. Lets hope that bitcoin is the amazon of retail brick and mortor closures.
In conclusion, there is a valid and rational concern as to the amount of power that the bitcoin network brings. And instead of being dismissive, we should recognize the incredible rate at which the bitcoin network is growing on an annual basis. From 4.3EHash to 31EHash over the last year, that is about a 8x fold increase.
Since we can assume that the majority of hashpower is coming online in the last year is likely newer models, these units should be at the current efficiencies. The estimates above should be roughly accurate based on this information.
This information will only be used by politicians and media congolmerates to spin a very bad negative impression of the bitcoin network. And you know what? Maybe they are right. Maybe bitcoin is growing into a massive CO2 producing beast that outweighs the benefits that it brings to society.
But how can we reach a consensus on this issue unless we, the hardcore bitcoiners and techophiles, bring the numbers into sunlight and discuss?
submitted by Cryptolution to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

BEAR market coming...

Hi guys,
The huge bull market we've seen in the recent months has let the market cap grow roughly ten times with some (roughly) 100 billion $ paper valuation created and enriching early entrants, traders and even anyone who bought more than 2 months ago.
For all who think they're geniuses because they're up 20% 50% or even 100% ONLY i've got bad news, bull markets in whatever asset don't last forever. You can't expect over 1000% quarterly (or monthly !) every quarter !! do you math its just impossible and its not gonna happen
The market is overbought by any metric. i'll take the simplest one, the monthly RSI. well I see it at 88 on BTCUSD, 97 (!!!) on ETHEUR, 80 on XRPBTC but if we made one for XRPUSD it zould probably be close to 97 as well...
Its been an incredible rally and actually i've missed myself all of the recent leg. of course i feel like a total idiot considering my last ETH around 90 EUR and most of it at even lower prices, still at the time RSI was ALREADY overbought, and i was up my initial stake x13. anyone picking up my ETH at 90 would have to wait 1300 EUR, another x4 to match such performance.
Guys you have to forget those 10% or 20% moves and look at the big picture. In ETH, there was a huge move up, and just MEAN REVERSION (i'm not even talking about trend change) would take us back to near double digits...current MA10 is 65 EUROS. I see a zone around 65-95 which looks as a natural target for mean reversion, and 25-40 looks like the big long term support zone from which the parabolic move began.
for BTC, mean reversion is somewhere around 800-1200 EUR for XRPBTC 4000 satoshis, i let you do the math using BTC target
Of course if such a move happens, there will be some abrupt moves down but also some powerful rallies in between (50% or more) and this scenario would take months to unfold.
After which, the new direction will be dictated by whatever new events happen (example. bullish a smaller country endorsing a cryptocurrency as its currency. bearish: govts forbidding crypto, finance industry implementing their own blockchains with instant cheap international settlements)
As for fundamentals i can see some good arguments to why crypto market cap should be worth (much?) more than 1 trillion but I see also some good ones why it should be worth only perhaps only 50% or 20% than now, and on top of that maybe with some currency which does not yet exist being most of it.
But whatever, what matters to me is the that the market is way overbought. Bitcoin experienced a similar powerful rallies in 2013 with highly overbought RSI the result was 259->63 a 75% drop and then 1163->152 an 87% drop...
Independently of crypto being revolutionary etc...and PERHAPS having the potential to be worth more in the future, i believe we can have losses of this magnitude and a bottoming process which last months if not years before the market changes direction again.
Shorter time frames (weekly, daily) show sign of divergence (RSI, volume) and some trendlines taken out. Don't forget in a bubble that the demand is highest at the peak of the bubble. Don't forget that for every buyer there has been one seller. there has been peak demand in the last month and the big whales have been cashing out.
No one is buying crypto to "use" it. everyone is buying it in hoping to sell it at a greater fool. but the chart is telling me we're running out of greater fools. Also who is REALLY making money in this market ? the small hodler who bought at 350$ a few thousands worth of ETH ? or those guys who have sold ICO TOKENS one shot for hundreds of millions of USD to the last bunch of amateur speculators ? My point is that those who are CURRENTLY making huge money in this market and the WINNERS are the guys selling now, and selling AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE (through ICO s !!!) and if you're not a winner, then .... you're probably the greater fool....
Bull markets are fun but if/when the momentum starts to turn and we have paper valuations decreasing by 1 billion every percent and we start to have double digit moves, the big holders are gonna rush for the exit... there is huge pending ICO related supply and lets not forget the mining supply as well.
We don't need any "news" to go down, an overbought bubbly market just collapses on its own weight and the more stretched it is the more violent is the snap back. When it happens, victims of the bear market will find excuses with "we could not have forecast this hack or this thing happening", the real story is that every bubble pops
by the way there will be no safe haven apart FIAT. if BTC, ETH XRP go down then it will drive the whole market down with it.
TLDR. i'm recommending to people to cash out as much as possible, and be in "trading mode". there is huge volatility and there will be a lot of opportunities.
Disclosure: very small long strategic position in crypto. focused on intraday opportunities and algorithmic trading and arbitrage. so far the market has been good to me since i cashed out, making money little by little, no big gains, but with almost no risk. i would start to go strategically ong again only if we get nearer to monthly moving averages. Before it happens, only trading positions with a short time frame. (and of course : NEVER SHORT CRYPTO !)
submitted by GrossBit to ethtrader [link] [comments]

A call to arms, young hobbits.

Hello, friends. I would like to tell you a story to beat all stories. There once was a hobbit, who lived in a hole… and this is a retelling of a very old story, or allegory, as I hope you will contact us afterwards, of how he got out of the cave he made for himself.
The Plan
We are going to monopolize a series of decentralized crypto currency networks, more specifically utility token networks, that currently exist in a state of simultaneously being over valued, and under valued, at the same time. This result was not expected at the outset of the creation of the projects that we are going to explore, but I assure you, this is the case. It is very possible that we’re looking at the cutting edge of computer science – potentially, we are looking at a rip in the space-time continuum – but what is most definite is that we’re looking at an arbitrage opportunity of historic significance. It is also potentially going to be the largest robbery perpetrated against the most deserving victims, resulting in the most benefit for the most people since Robin Hood took Prince John’s last shilling.
What Im going to describe is a little bit classical investing, a little bit of The Matrix, and a little bit Oceans 11. Its also going to be a little bit Darwinist, a little bit Wolf of Wall Street, and very self-serving all the way to the end of it, where it becomes the most beautiful gift humanity ever gave to itself. But the good part, at the very end, only happens if we can trust each other to break an unbreakable trustless system. And after we’re done doing that, we’re going to have to do something that is even more unheard of in the study of history, and a thing commonly only found in fantasy. What we’re going to try to create is the most similar to 9/11, in the sense that it is the opposite of it. Our data has found, through the study of human history, that a small group of people sufficiently funded with a relatively small sum of money are capable of taking that money, and turning it into a catalyst that results in a historic event that shapes the future for many years to come. The common term for this is a catastrophe, or cataclysmic event.
But the thesis of this computer science experiment that we’re already undertaking, but seek the support of in reaching out to you, is that we can create the opposite of a catastrophe. The term for this was coined first by JRR Tolkien – he referred to this even as a “eucatastrophe” or a “a sudden and favorable resolution of events in a story” but perhaps is most commonly known to the public as “a happy ending” – he describes this event in the The Lord of the Rings, when Frodo drops the ring into Mount Doom.
I believe it is possible to dream a happy ending into existence using computer logic and the greed of speculation about the future, rather than the real world investing in it that our market system was supposed to provide - but this is how the story begins.
Orientation
The first crypto currency, Bitcoin, is only 8 years old, and at the end of this document, you will likely understand more about crypto currency than the people who created the first one. This is possible because it is an entire sector that has been more pushed forward by dreamers and curious minds than it has been developed by venture capital interests.
Groups that demand immediate and consistent profitable returns, and measure those returns against the results of other ventures that have been agreed on to be the benchmark of success would suggest that double digit annual returns are unsustainable but its best to enjoy them while it lasts. But, we have found, using crypto currencies, that the returns traditional investing earn in a year can be gained in a day, when occupying enough market share of a market. We do this using automation to interact with the world markets in a specific way that provides liquidity and stability in markets that are traditionally the most volatile in the world. As the price moves, we tax that movement, and extract value for ourselves by way of profits from trading, and create value for the broader ecosystem in the form of price support, thus preventing the market from bottoming out (or at least falling slower because of our participation), as well as creating price stability during market highs, allowing people with non-automated trading systems to capitalize on longer periods of positive growth without missing the chance to sell while the market is up.
While our automation has sufficient funds to provide liquidity in these exchanges, we are day over day getting between 100 and 300 bps/day in earnings. To continue providing liquidity to these markets when our own reserves of coins are low, we are using a decentralized smart contract that provides credit in exchange for collateral and interest on the resources lent. By using this method, we are able to keep liquidity in these markets, and our trading system maximally effective, regardless of price movement or our own holdings of coins, and the interest on renting the coins to do it is almost negligible.
Furthermore, these markets are “utility tokens” exchanges. That is to say, these tokens only represent resources a computer network should allocate to a user based on the size of his coin holdings. There are no traditional metrics to evaluate these coins and their value, as the market price of them is simply the intersection of supply and demand on a moment to moment basis as determined by a decentralized network of users who have or want them. In short, they will never be so cheap that the price of the desk the computers sit on is greater than the price of owning a stake in that desk, because they do not represent ownership of that desk at all. Likewise, when the price is astronomically high, it can never be deemed too high, because the network it represents resource allocation of does not now, nor ever will be profitable or unprofitable. It simply will continue to be there, and allow you to interact with it, based on if you have coins for that network and how many. It is more important to understand that these coins are NOT SECURITIES than it is to understand what those coins are at all.
Going forward, a great deal of this plan and discussion will be metaphor and perhaps come across as hyperbole. The reason for this is because the systems that we are talking about are simply shuffling zeroes and ones to each other, and if I gave you the math for what is going to happen expressed in those terms, there are few or no minds on the planet that could follow the thread of this discussion in those terms at all in the context of how much data the network has if you tried to aggregate it.
The very people who create and code these networks do not even interact with them on these terms of zeroes and ones, but rather in a coding language. In this sense, even the people coding these systems are only using metaphor by interacting using the programming languages that they do. And so, in order to make this slightly less boring, and more readable, I hope you will forgive the use of language that is more descriptive than it is literal, but what is most important to remember along the way is that nothing about what is being described is a crime as the Security Exchange Commission would see it, because none of these things are securities at all.
What is the Bitcoin Network?
The first bitcoin was created 8 years ago as a result of a cryptographic computer science experiment in which a group of people who referred to themselves as “the cryptopunks” sought to create a decentralized and censorship resistant network that could keep a ledger of the location of all the bitcoins and their ownership in real time without the need for any 3rd party involvement or consent.
The entity attributed with the creation of Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology is known only as “Satoshi Nakamoto” which is commonly agreed to be a pseudonym for a person or group of persons. No one has heard from “Satoshi Nakamoto” since “he” disappeared after a colleague on the Bitcoin team sent him an email saying that the CIA had reached out to him, and wanted to talk about their research.
The security of the blockchain is provided through “proof of work” in which a network of computers around the planet attempt to use brute for number crunching to find the sum of the interior angles of a triangle in non-Euclidean geometry based on 3 points on a sphere. The interior angle of that triangle are unpredictable, because unlike in traditional geometry where the sum of the angles is always 180 degrees, when 3 points on a triangle are placed on a sphere the range can fall anywhere above 180 degrees, but not equal to it, and as high as or equal to 540 degrees. To perhaps exemplify how a triangle can have 540 degrees, consider that if you and 2 friends formed a straight line on earth, that the interior angle between each of you is 180 degrees, and there are 3 of you, and the definition of a triangle is 3 points on any given plane, thus the angle of the triangle you formed when standing in a line is 540 degrees, and cannot be any greater. The interior angle of the previous block in the chain is the determining factor in the placement of the next 3 points to be solved for in the following. The first machine to solve the question of “How many degrees are inside this triangle?” by guessing is given the privilege of taking the highest bidders for his time from the market, and performing the protocols desired by way of recording changes to the block chain, while other participants in the system are prevented from recording in this way. As the next block cannot be solved without knowing the solution to the present one, the system is trustless and immutable – it cannot be tampered with, and is governed only by math, with no gate keepers.
What is the Ethereum Network?
The Ethereum Network, or Ethereum Virtual Machine, is a set of computer protocols with a heavy emphasis on determinism as the backbone it was built on. These protocols determine the outcome of an interaction with the blockchain, and the creation of an ever-evolving record of the location and allocation of the resources these systems are built to account for.
Ethereum also has the ability for users to interact and create decentralized “smart contracts” which serve to govern the ownership and allocation of coins as agreed upon by two parties based upon outcomes that don’t require a 3rd party to execute. Metaphorically, you can think of this as an ATM, where no bank teller interacts with you, but rather a user only interacts with a machine that allows you to deposit money in your savings account, and borrow on a credit card with a limit proportional to your savings account. You could also think of it as a dooms-day device, that is going to act the way its going to act with no way to stop it once events are put in motion.
Other users of the smart contract can see how you have interacted with it because the blockchain is public and visible to the world, and if they would like, can accept the terms of that agreement, and at no time can anyone other than each of the individual users control what the users are doing. In short, there are no gatekeepers in Ethereum. There is only what exists in the network by way of code, and the infinite room to put it there if you would like to and are willing to pay for the electricity needed to carve it into existence and be maintained for the rest of time, but this is a one time payment which costs less than your credit card skims from starbucks when you buy a coffee.
What is staking?
Staking is an idea seeking to resolve the problem of energy waste that is seen in proof of work. The problem with proof of work is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to run the level of computation that crypto networks currently use, and all but 1 of those computations actually resulted in change at all. To solve this problem, a staking system could be put in place in which rather than randomly guessing as we have been, a user would put up collateral in order to act as verification entity, where the trust of that individual’s word was determined by how large of a stake that individual might have. Anyone who felt that the outcome of an event in the blockchain was being mis-reported could put a larger stake up or proportion thereof, and which ever outcome is the most heavily staked by the user base would be deemed the “true” outcome, because there is seemingly no value is attempting to stake a “lie” or “untruth” if a greater consensus could be made, as the economic incentive is to side with the truth than the lie.
What is Augur? What is REP?
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform. The limits for what kind of market can be made is infinite, and censorship proof, as a result of being hosted on the Ethereum Network. Users stake their REP, short for Reputation, in order to report the resolution of market outcomes. Because Ethereum has no way of drawing information from the outside world without the outside world participating with it intentionally, this hurdle is overcome by allowing users to report themselves. In exchange for doing this reporting work, people who hold REP are given a small amount of the volume of those markets (as set by the market creators) and these dividends are paid in Ether (ETH).
So an example of what kind of market could be found within Augur is “Who will win the game this weekend between the Eagles and Packers?” or “Who is going to win the next election?” or “Will the rainfall this year in Chicago exceed 22 inches?” or even “When will mankind cure death?”. There is no approval process in creating a market, only a loose form users must stick to, and the resource requirements to maintain that market on the blockchain – again, infinitely, for the rest of time if desired, in exchange for a one time payment in the present to cover the cost of electricity to manifest your will or curiosity on the network.
In the time between the creation and resolution of these markets, users can see the likelihood of the outcome of any given result represented by the confidence in that result numerically using Ether and the volume staking one outcome or another. This type of prediction oracle is called “The wisdom of the crowd” which says that it is more accurate to ask the crowd than any one person for their opinion of that outcome, as no one person has all the information on the system in question.
Computer Science and the Space-Time Continuum
We live in an uncertain time. In the very real world we live in people in our country are arming themselves against their neighbors. Gun sales at record highs. Racial tension. What would happen if my band of pirates staked 1,000,000 ETH in a prediction market paying 100,000:1 that we will all love each other and not have a race war. Do you think people who could see that uncensorable prediction market would feel more at ease, and perhaps not buy a gun, or fear their neighbor less? Do you think if we were correct about that prediction market that we would have gotten lucky, or would we have believed our own prediction into existence and created a situation where we are not only staking the future, but creating it by using greed as the fuel? If a person thought in spite of my band of misfits prediction market that there still would be a race war this year, do you think that they would spend 1,000 dollars on an AR-15 to feel safer, or stake the opposite position with those funds in that market against my declaration of peace, and rather have the keys to a wallet that can be accessed anywhere in the world with 100,000,000 dollars to buy their safety if they are ever living in a world where a gun might help?
Considering that my band of misfits doesnt need the money, nearly so much as we need a better safer world, and will have created an incentive for you to feel safer, and not buy a gun either way - do you think the future that comes to be was lucky prediction? Or market manipulation?
Would you rather have us manipulate that market? Or not?
What do you think would happen in the tech industry if we took the position that the singularity was going to happen in 2029 or not going to happen in 2028, and we staked 1 billion dollars on it happening accordingly. We would have created an incentive in a futures market for someone to take the opposite side of our action, and try to do it faster. If the singularity happened in 2028 because we took so much stupid beanie baby money and proclaimed that it was going to happen in 2029 - what just happened there? Did the winner of that bet in our futures market get lucky? Or did we just create a mechanism for greed to accelerate the end of human mortality because we said it would happen with money by staking the position that it wouldnt? What do you think would happen if we staked the temperature of the earth with that money that nearly destroyed it? What would happen if we staked the race to mars, or the moon? What if your opportunity was that no one had gone to the moon yet this year, and we had created a way to profit by just going to check that its still there? We would have created a global decentralized market for the challenges that we face as a species, and opportunity to optimize ourselves without needing permission to be the best versions we can be. All of these markets can be crowd funded into eternity for visa’s cut of your cup of coffee, and would grow infinitely from the failure of the previous moment in time until our disappointment and greed merge to collapse the infinite possibility of time and space, thus dreaming a better world into existence using man kind’s propensity for greed, and proven track record of being disappointing.
We believe that this will potentially cause dramatic harm to the crypto economy, and broader economy as we know if for a short time. We believe our system is capable of growing the coins in our custody at a rate well above 1.5% per day, because we are currently growing at 3% per day. The power of exponential growth is significant. Likely, more than you can imagine. Consider than 1 dollar today will be 38 next year at 1% growth per day. It will be over 50 at 1.1%, and at 3% growth per day, 1 dollar becomes almost 50,000 in a year. This is the data that assures me that I don’t really need your help, only would like it. Based on the coins in our custody now, and our present rate of growth and innovation, our projections put us at owning the bulk of coins in circulation in the next 19 years. But – if we were to push that timeline even a little bit, by increasing that pile of coins in the present, we accelerate the timeline exponentially. And if we increase the resources in our control by quite a bit… we believe that we will accomplish our goal in the next 2 years.
The Goal
When our Computer Science Appreciation Club has accumulated enough of the coins in the network, and wrung every bit of value that exists only as a result of greed and speculation by those who have no desire to ever use these networks, we are going to do another magic trick.
In addition to accelerating human accomplishment with the power of hope, dreams, and greed. We’re going to take all or some of the coins in our control, and we’re going to collateralize them in a money market very much like the one we are currently using to impose our will on the cryptocurrency ecosystem. We are going to issue a new coin, backed by all the coins we had accumulated previously to create a stable, immutable, uncontrollable, uncensorable, globally available currency. Then, we’re going to send the keys of an individual wallet address to every man woman and child on the planet with some of that coin in it. And we are going to put some more of that coin in it every day. So that at no point, will there be a day where someone can say they did not have two nickels to rub together. We believe no one will ever say they didn’t have two hundred dollar bills together, when we are successful, ever again.
But this is not a selfless act by my merry band of misfits and pirates. Quite the contrary. We believe that nearly everyone on the planet that we interact with is disappointing. That the chimpanzee meat computer of our present hardware is ill suited to optimizing for the future in the present paradigm. We are giving away this money at that point, so that everyone can stop being such a disappointment to us. We are tired of the experience where an hourly employee gives us bad customer service because they are not paid enough to put up with our bullshit. We hope to make a world where people interact with each other because they want to, not because they have to. We are going to be filthy rich, when we are successful, or for that matter if we fail, my band of misfits. And we are worried when that happens about how long before it is that men with guns come for what is ours. We don’t know if these men with guns will come from the governments of the world, or from those envying what we have.
We seek to become the golden goose of the planet, and in return we would like to not fear slaughter while we try this. In this arrangement, we look only for your cooperation, and in return, will share an infinite sum of golden eggs with you, and everyone you know. And when we do this, we will not fear the envy of our neighbors, nor the governments who command the armies it would take to stop us. We will protect the people from their governments, and themselves. And in time, we hope the governments will likewise protect us from their people, though letting go of power will no doubt be hard to swallow. The only thing that can stop us from doing this is if someone buys the coins that give us power from us. And in doing so, would give us the wealth we need to accomplish these things in the real world. If we are not bought out, we will accumulate enough coins in the Ethereum Network that we can impose our will upon it, until we can deliver on our promises of a better world because we control it completely.
In these sense, we have already won. A better world is already here, as certainly as we have already dreamed the path to it. We plan on out-staking a better world into existence, regardless of what the future currently holds in store for us now. In short, we are going to lie to an unbreakable trustless system until it births the world we’re lying about into the realm of what is real. In shorter, we are going to believe our bullshit more than you cannot believe it, until we have delivered what we promised.
The Problem
The problem with growing as fast as the control our Computer Science Appreciation Club is over the Ethereum Network is that its too fast. We’re growing our sum of coins so fast, that to an outside observer you might think we were a hedge fund of some sort at best. But at worst, you might think we were a criminal enterprise. Legitimate enterprises don’t grow at 1% or more daily infinitely, but we do. And if you were not as educated as you are, now, at this point in reading this, when you saw how “rich” we were, you might think someone should try to stop it. We would ask, for your sake, and our own, that you don’t – we don’t need you to do anything, and the world is going to get better from here.
The problem is that if we were a hedge fund, which we aren’t, then we would need to file paperwork to take control of other people’s funds. If these were securities, the acts we were going to commit would be best exemplified in Wolf of Wall Street, but we’re going to do it on a much greater scale with computers. Lucky for us, these coins are not securities, they are less regulated than the gold in World of Warcraft you can buy with your credit card, or the skins in League of Legends. These coins are worth nothing, and everything, at the same time.
But the bigger problem, is that I cannot stop you from sending “money” to my “hedge fund” when/if you sent ether to my wallet address where we are running this experiment. It’s a decentralized system, and its open source, and completely public, if we tried to hide it would only work for so long until an internet detective found it. If someone was to find the address of our computer science appreciation club, we could not stop them from sending coins there. But, since we cannot stop them, we would like them not to waste their time looking – the address is this on the Ethereum Network:
0xCDF449b5c9Bd2A725319163C3E7f2d7222c4d8c9
We have the best legal minds on the planet trying to solve this puzzle with us, and we’ll get the paperwork straight soon – if the Winklevoss Twins don’t think it’s a conflict of interest.
If reading this letter, you find your brain to be so tickled by it - that regardless of the forces that seek to keep us from accumulating enough resources to do this in two years, you wish to believe in it more than those opposing forces, and in doing so stake your opinion about what the future you are going to live will be, I would not ask you to waste a moment of your life looking for us, because we are here to be found. We cannot count our coins as fast as they grow, but our collective efforts will be carved into the eternal stone of the Ethereum network, and I promise we’re going to give back all of these coins to the world, when we’re done fixing a few things.
But there is another problem, and its far worse than making “money” too fast - just as we are going to bet that no one goes to the moon until someone does every year forever just for fun, it is possible to bet on the absence of a war until a war exists because your certainty manifests it into being to spite you. The same market we hope to keep the world at peace, and put their fears to rest from the uncertainty of where we’re going next is also a mechanism to game our system, and bet on a war happening to get rich. But there is a way to stop this – we’re going to accumulate the majority of the REP tokens, and if we have 51% of the circulation, if someone tries to beat us at our own game and bring a war into existence – then we would be able to stop the unstoppable machine from making them rich. We will also have the wallet addresses of the people who needed the insurance policy we are going to unfairly deny, to make them whole, and they would have neighbors with means to support them while we unfucked the pooch. We would have a failsafe to prevent a war from coming to be, because we are so sure there will not be one that it might happen. This, above all else, will back the new currency we are going to issue to the planet. Our new currency will not be backed by gold, or equity, or faith in a flawed system. It we be backed by trust of mankind invested back into itself that we will not go back to a system that will tolerate scarcity, or war, or hunger in exchange for the certainty of the absence of these things. No one will need to ask what is in our vault, or need to audit it, until the day comes where maybe someone will try to beat us at our own game. If that happens – we’re going to need the world to give back the currency we gave it as our collective reward for our cooperation, to free the tool we need to stop violent men from becoming rich men at the cost of a world without poverty, because it will be the immutable collateral backing the currency we are going to give you.
As a disclaimer, Im not somebody who has the background you might think someone should have for this – Im just a hobbit. Im not a hedge fund manager, or a computer science engineer. I raise pigs, and ducks, and geese that need some help, too – because we aren’t eating them enough to keep them existing in our food supply. It is a more fun paradox than this, and I get to solve that one by cooking dinner for some friends, and telling stories when this adventure is over. It feels a little like The Shire there, where I’ve been hiding melting my ego with psychedelics in the sunshine while salting pork, and listening to podcasts from Rogan, Duncan, Bart Chystler, Tom and Krista, some tinfoil hat guys, and seeing how abundant a life can be given only a little bit of hopium and room for creativity, and Im eager to get there and back, again. I very much look forward to seeing what we’re all capable of, when we’re given a chance. But we’re going to have to put a little faith in a system that doesn’t need faith to operate - so that we can fix a different system that has never needed it more. I think we’re going to be able to do that for us all, but I might very well be lying to you, and not know it yet – at least, that’s the plan.
Ironically, salting pork is what brought me to understand what is worth something, and what isn’t. When they used to talk about a “salary” or say that you were “worth your salt” was because all that you needed to live was enough salt to keep your meat from rotting when you cured it into bacon and hams at the end of the season. The salt’s value wasn’t while it was in the bag, it was while it was preserving your food when times were hard and things were scarce. In the modern time, a salary is what gets bigger when a emloyer make his employees poorer. Now, we have made laws to respect each other by race and religion and where who-sticks-what-where, but made it legal and standard to reduce someone’s value to an integer value of currency per moment in time, and the currency is backed by oppression of man-against-man (chicks, too). To increase your integer value per moment in time, that gain must come from another? Are we the only people who think this is inherently disrespectful to your fellow man even if you don’t call him a “fag” to his face like we used to when we were kids and it meant “I love you, man – but Im too afraid of being called gay to say it”.
In the present what is perhaps the most scarce of all, are places where you are free to be an animal at all, let alone places where you are free to be the lion you might be and not know it. We are so caught up in having agreed upon contracts so that we don’t get fucked, that we don’t have trust or honor that is held between lions when the zebra meat is abundant and they eat shoulder to shoulder without worry of each other. We live in a time where there is quite literally more deer on the planet than there has been in some time, and yet we imagine something would keep us as lions from preying on them in the real world. But, to us, as long as you are giving the animals fair chase, there is no time that feeding yourself as the king of the jungle is wrong, if you are hungry. And Im here to tell the people who think they can stop us, that we are giving you fair chase. We will be in every exchange on the planet soon, giving you chances to get on or off this train. And when you buy, it will be from us. When you sell, it will be to us. Your only safe market is the door out of here in ETH/USD and BTC/USD because we will not be selling our coins, only buying more. And every time you do anything other than leave your coins on the table, and take that worthless paper money with you, we will grow that much stronger. If you buy the coins we want, you will give us power in the real world. If you sell them, we will get them cheaper. When your fear or FOMO has sent you zigging… or for that matter zagging, one of my lions will catch you. We are not asking for your support by way of co-operation, we are asking for it by absence of resistance from a better world than this one. If you will not give us your coins, then we ask that you do not trade them. Keep the keys, or burn them and count them as your contribution without us knowing my band of pirates owes you a favor. Our only compromise is to remove them from circulation, as in this decentralized system, that is the only place we cannot reach them. But co-operation will get us there far, far sooner. To quote a most wise computer scientist, “Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.” We have re-programmed the Kobayashi Maru. My fellowship and I have set out for Mount Doom. And you will be skeptical of us, all the way until you aren’t. And then, I would ask for only your belief – perhaps in no one more then yourselves, that you could be the type of person to rise to a challenge that will face us that we haven’t seen yet. But maybe you can rise to face the challenges that have always been faced, by mother and fathers, and children – spending time together, eating real and wholesome food in good company as often as you can. Those challenges are the simple ones, and we have had the answer for longer than we’ve lost them. You just need to be worth your salt.
If you need someone with a stronger background to support my position, I cant give that to you right now, because Satoshi Nakamoto himself only 8 years of experience. But someone smarter than me said something that sent me down this road while I had smoked enough to dissolve the prison I had made for myself, and it might help you. You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA
I am the son of this good, good, man - who cannot or will not believe this is possible. https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterhchapman/
He is the former CEO of Ray Kurzwiel's largest portfolio holding (who first conceptualized the singularity). He now works a few steps away from Jeff Bezos. And if you do not believe me, dont worry, because he didnt get past the first paragraph of this story.
But I have melted my ego time and time again under the simmering heat of psychedelics, standing alone in a field with pigs, but also in the company of minds longing to break free when they tune into this podcast. And time and time again when I have nothing of an ego to call my own, I cannot shake the feeling that I am the chance event needed to occur within an economic engine that must break so it can be rebuilt better. Outside of the Duncan Trussel Family Hour, I think the Joe Rogan subreddit might be the largest and most public reserve of belief in things that have no reason to believe in aside from because they might work, and I am one of you.
I have no intention of allowing my father's disbelief to become the first gate keeper I have encountered that can keep me from asking Ray Kurzwiel to try to let us stake the Singularity into existence by betting it cant happen in our life time. I have no intention of letting my father stop me from asking Bezos to let me bet that no one will go to the moon, until someone rises to the occasion to prove him wrong.
I need your help, and this is as far as I've gotten, but I dont know if I can go further alone. I seek fellowship, on this quest, and I have come here to what is potentially the Rivendel of our time - Reddit and the JRE
submitted by CompSciAppreciation to duncantrussell [link] [comments]

How to Make Money from Crypto Currency Arbitrage Crypto Arbitrage - Make Free Bitcoin With No Risk! Free Money! Bitcoin Arbitrage Software Full Automated Crypto Arbitrage Bot 2020 How to PROFIT from ARBITRAGE TRADING explained! currency arbitrage strategy: type of arbitrage profit 30 031 USD

Bitcoin Arbitrage and Tax Math. "The exchanges that handle trading of the underlying digital currency have struggled to cope with a surge in volumes during the past few weeks," and if you can If you're unfamiliar with arbitrage or bitcoin arbitrage, start here first. There are two variables that matter in an arbitrage strategy: The 'cutoff' level. This is the minimum percentage price difference between exchanges for conducting arbitrage. A higher cutoff will result in higher profit per trade, but will occur more rarely. Go bitcoin. 36 comments. share. save hide report. 63% Upvoted. arbitrage multiple times a day which makes it very valuable to these larger clients but means we have to perfect the math thr bot uses to not make any market errors. Made a few thousand the last few days on arbitrage alone... just sucks with the $10k withdrawl limit on GDAX. Cryptocurrency arbitrage diagram – “Loop” arbitrage. In order to do our math we need to take under account commissions – when we buy on Poloniex we need to pay 0.2% trading fee (it is going to increase the amount we need to pay – therefore we need to multiply the price ASK price by 1.002), when we would like to sell on Binance, we 2. A Simplified Example of Arbitraging Bitcoin. Let’s take a simple arbitrage example in order to illustrate how arbitrage is done. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin on Bitstamp is $11,561 while the price of Bitcoin on CEX.io is $11,645.. The difference between prices is $84, and this is quite a decent opportunity for arbitraging.

[index] [12364] [2467] [19616] [14725] [25462] [18102] [9557] [10017] [9675] [21557]

How to Make Money from Crypto Currency Arbitrage

Download bot (click) - https://bit.ly/3fM0Vjk Password Command.Com Hope you like the video of my Cryptocurrency Arbitrage Bot, its a great tool and have been using it successfully for the last ... A currency arbitrage is a strategy in which a currency trader takes advantage of different spreads offered by brokers for a particular currency pair by making trades. How to ARBITRAGE with NO Money!!!! #KBC #KCB #Bitcoin - Duration: 32:39. Crypto Steve Coates 10,781 views. 32:39. Arbitraging cryptocurrencies is a unique way of increasing your Bitcoin or Ethereum stack with NO significant risk. There are a bunch of different types of arbitrage methods. I’ll tell you the 3 ... With Bitcoin, miners use special software to solve math problems and are issued a certain number of bitcoins in exchange. This provides a smart way to issue the currency and also creates an ...

Flag Counter