The day advanced as if to light some work of mine Thoreau, Walden submitted by
This is my thirty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $813 282
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 802
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $83 162
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 472
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $178 121
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $34 965
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $272 399
Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 046
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 970
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 492
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $106 701
Secured physical gold – $17 252
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $14 755
Bitcoin – $153 530
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $18 365
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 534
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477 Total portfolio value: $1 873 325 (+$94 067) Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.8% (2.2% under)
Global shares – 22.6%
Emerging markets shares – 2.4%
International small companies – 3.1%
Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under) Total shares – 70.9% (4.1% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.5%
International bonds – 9.5% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 6.6%
Bitcoin – 8.2% Gold and alternatives – 14.8% (4.8% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments
This month saw exceptional growth in the portfolio, with a net increase of $94 000 after a small fall last month. [Chart]
This is the fastest growth in the past half year. It is also the second largest absolute increase in over three years of measurement. [Chart]
As the histogram below - which counts the frequency of occurrences in a specified range of monthly value changes (with red denoting losses) - makes clear, this is one of the most positive outcomes in the three year record. [Chart]
The sources of portfolio growth were generally buoyant global and Australian share markets. Just under half of the growth was also due to an increase in the price of both gold securities and Bitcoin. In addition, even bond holdings increased in value over the period.
Distribution payments from the Vanguard retail funds, as well as the exchange-traded funds VAS, VGS and A200 were made through this month.
These totalled around $14 000 and have begun to be gradually fed back into the portfolio. This is a process which will occur through to June - with new investments twice per month. So far this has led to additional purchases in Vanguard's Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) to maintain the target allocation of Australian equities making up 60 per cent of all equity holdings.
The bond allocation of the portfolio continues to be notionally under its target, but has not yet reached a position where further balancing investments are warranted. Fully excluding the value of Bitcoin, for example, it still sits on its target allocation of 15 per cent of the portfolio.
If the same calculation is done for equities, they sit just above their target, at 77 per cent, and have drifted higher since early last year. Over the past months my position has been to take no portfolio balancing actions based purely on the volatile value of Bitcoin over time, and this remains my approach.
There is no perfect answer to this issue - assigning no value to Bitcoin and ignoring it for asset allocation purposes is inconsistent with its role in the portfolio. Pushing either equity or bond allocations sharply out of target boundaries merely due to short-term Bitcoin movements is also not warranted. Taking a backcast 'moving average' approach might be one statistical solution, but I am not yet convinced it would do more than moderate the appearance of the issue.
While expenditure has been higher over the holiday period, on average the gap between the rolling three-year average of distributions and credit card expenditure continues to close, and sits at just over a $300 per month gap at present. Flags of convenience - estimating hedging in the portfolio
This month, out of a curiosity carried over from my recent review of my bond holdings, I have found the time to review of the overall currency hedging position of the portfolio.
There are some excellent online research papers (pdf) and blog pieces, such as this one from Passive Investing Australia, for those interested in learning more about some of the associated issues.
Currency risks have never previously been an object of much detailed thought on the journey. Rather, I had tracked a basic measure of broader exposure to foreign assets (including foreign equities, property securities, gold and more recently Bitcoin).
The additional issue of whether my exposure to these assets was unhedged (meaning exposure to gains and losses from the relative movement in the Australian dollar and the foreign currencies) or hedged was not really front of mind.
I suppose I had a dim awareness that some elements of the Vanguard retail funds that have until recently dominated the portfolio were hedged (for example, around 30 per cent of the Vanguard High Growth Diversified funds equity position is currency hedged), and judged that there was likely a well-considered rationale behind the amount of this hedging.
The first step to understanding where any exposures exist is to understand and measure the current state of affairs. As of today, this is broadly as set out below:
- Around 35 per cent of all portfolio assets are effectively unhedged - This includes Bitcoin, unhedged gold holdings, and unhedged international equities and bonds. All other things being equal, if the Australian dollar falls, the value of this part of the portfolio rises in relative terms.
- The remaining 65 per cent of assets are either hedged or Australian-held assets - This includes Australian equities, Australian bonds, as well as international equities and bonds hedged back to the Australian dollar.
- International equities are partially hedged - The portfolio has around $525 000 in international equities currently. Of this, around $140 000 is hedged back into Australian dollars - a hedging position of 27 per cent.
- International bonds are nearly fully hedged - consistent with their portfolio role and discussed here.
The decision to invest in Vanguard's International Shares ETF (VGS), which is unhedged, is a significant event in this regard.
The chart below shows the overall level of currency hedging in the international equity portfolio. Investments in VGS commenced from July 2019, and have started to affect the level of hedging. [Chart]
As future contributions flow into VGS - absent any other action - a historically quite stable level of hedging will continue to fall. So far this is just a trend I am monitoring, until I have completed more research and thinking on the best approach in this area.
There are many complicated, and some unknowable, issues to consider and balance in hedging decisions, such as the likely denomination of future costs, and the historical and future relationships between domestic currencies and equity markets. None avail themselves of short or easy answers. Until I have thought my way through them more fully, I remain hesitant to make any definitive decisions. Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio Objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 85.2% 115.9%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.9% 141.4%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 83.3% 113.3% Summary
This month has seen rapid progress, propelling the portfolio closer to both old and new goals. The portfolio gains this month have already closed nearly half of the additional distance created by increasing my portfolio target at the beginning of the year.
The psychological forward push from distributions performance across 2019 (including, pleasingly, seeing it recognised here) has added to this sense of momentum. Additionally, this month I have also crossed the threshold to the target portfolio size needed to achieve 'credit card FI', a long-standing measure I have tracked.
The long summer break that has just ended in some ways seemed like a foretaste of what some versions of financial independence could feel like. With the minimum of planning there was time to read, rest, exercise and write largely as I pleased.
Returning to work following this has been infused with an unusual sense of being a temporary visitor in a new workplace. There is a greater philosophical detachment, in observing its rituals and rhythms, and less of a desire to seek to shape or resist its minutiae. Rather, what I have focused on is seeking to more deliberately make use of the freedoms it does not constrain, and pursue the best and most interesting use of the time that is outside of work hours.
Through these recent strong Australian and US equity markets, this article has been a useful reminder of the 'survivorship' risks of focusing a FI target too narrowly on past performance.
This excellent recent piece from Aussie HIFIRE has also, from another direction, usefully focused on separating out the decisions that do, and do not, materially matter in planning and executing on a passive indexing strategy over the long-term. For a challenging and entirely heterodox view on the potential long-term movement of equity markets upwards from here, this article has been thought-provoking.
Finally, this month I have been discovering the Jolly Swagman podcast, which has long and fascinating interviews with the ex-head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Nobel Prize winning US economist Robert Shiller speaking on bubbles and narrative economics.
During the long restful hours of summer break, the day has advanced. Though clouds may come in time, as the year starts - at least - the way forward looks bright. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Dr Eric Maskin won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2007 for his work on mechanism design, while Sir Christopher Pissarides won it in 2010 for his work on search frictions in marketplaces. Stimulus Check Calculator; Testing Shiller's Nobel Prize Against The Bitcoin Bubble. joint winner of the Nobel for economics this year, has pointed out. That one of the things that pops Nov 30 “Bitcoin Is a Delusion That Could Conquer the World” – The Atlantic | $10,624.75 Nov 29 “Bitcoin ‘Ought to Be Outlawed,’ Nobel Prize Winner Stiglitz Says” – Bloomberg | $9,972.67 Nov 29 “This Is What Could Pop the Bitcoin Bubble” – Bloomberg | $9,972.67 Nov 28 “Hey Idiots – You’re Gonna Lose All Your Money on Bitcoin, Idiots” – Splinter | $9,666.23 Nov 27 Nobel Prize winner in economics Bitcoin seems to be a very promising idea. I like the idea of basing security on the assumption that the CPU power of honest participants outweighs that of the attacker. Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Says Bitcoin is a ‘Clever Idea’ Latest Update: Jan 29, 2018 | Chris Davies 3668 The American Nobel Laureate and Sterling Professor of Economics at Ivy League Yale University Robert Shiller considers bitcoin as an exciting experiment as well as a clever idea.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Bitcoin Mania, a Nobel Prize-winning Economist Talks Trump, and Tech Stocks Money Insider. ... Susan Athey: The Economics of Bitcoin & Virtual Currency - Duration: 32:44. In 1974 Friedrich Hayek won the Nobel Prize for Economics. Hayek was awarded the Nobel Prize for his pioneering work in the theory of money and economic fluctuations. Fast forward to today where ... That's the heart of Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman's skepticism around cryptocurrencies -- noting that while he may not understand technology, he does understand monetary economics ... Nobel Prize-winning Economist Paul Krugman on Tax Reform, Trump, and Bitcoin by Money Insider. 16:47. Economics Podcast - Part 1, An Interview with Greg Mankiw by cengagevideo. Nobel Prize-winning Economist Paul Krugman on Tax Reform, Trump, and Bitcoin - Duration: ... Debunking Economics and Why Bitcoin Will Fail With Steve Keen - Duration: 1:09:45.