A brief history of the 2013 market peak; why some alts really do die; and what would've happened if you'd given in to FOMO
This piece is a follow-up to my earlier piece, which looked at what would’ve happened if you’d purchased alt-coins shortly after the bottom of the 2013-2015 bear market. A lot of the constructive criticism that I received was that I was too bullish on alt-coins, and that the timing was too convenient. Although it’s fair to say that I am bullish on crypto in general and alt-coins in particular (with several major caveats for both), I agree that it’s important to not just focus on historical analyses where it’s fairly clear that you could have earned money. So, today’s research question is whether you’d still be underwater if you’d bought in to the market at or near the 2013 all-time high. All information cited herein comes from the historical charts available at CoinMarketCap. TL;DR: This worst-case scenario analysis shows that $300 invested equally across 15 of the 40 coins in existence near the market’s peak in 2013 would be worth only $429.95 today—gains which are entirely attributable to Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple. This is basic, but it can be dangerous to buy high. This is especially true of alt-coins, but even the top three coins in our sample saw fairly lackluster results when bought at the top of the market. Finally, nothing in this post should be taken as investment advice. This is only intended as historical analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. A Brief History of the 2013 Market Peak According to CoinMarketCap, the 2013 bull market peaked on December 4, 2013, at ~$15.87 billion in market capitalization.* Thereafter, the market crashed dramatically not once, but twice. In the first crash, which occurred between December 5-8, 2013, overall market cap fell by ~39% to ~$9.66 billion. Then, after a brief recovery to ~$13.57 billion on December 10th, the market fell precipitously, to ~$5.7 billion on December 18, 2013. Thus, over the course of only two weeks, from December 4-18, 2013, the market lost ~64% of its value. Although this was by no means the end of the 2013-2015 bear market--which lasted for approximately 17 months and saw an additional decline of ~45% from the December 18, 2013 low--this was the end of the beginning. What If I Bought Crypto Right as the 2013 Market Peaked? Generally, the first rule of trading is** that you want to buy low and sell high. As a result of their fear of missing out (“FOMO”), however, many people find themselves accidentally buying high. Today, I’m going to look at what would have happened to someone who bought their crypto right as the market was peaking. Ideally, I would run this experiment from December 4, 2013, but due to the limited data available from CoinMarketCap, I’m forced to choose between November 24th, December 1st, December 8th, and December 15th. Of those dates, I have selected December 1, 2013, because it represents the worst possible scenario for which I have data. On that date, total crypto market cap, which had hit a new high of ~$15.4 billion the day before, swung wildly between a high of ~$14.83 billion and a low of ~$12.18 billion. Unfortunately, it’s unclear exactly when CoinMarketCap’s snapshot was taken. That said, it’s clear that our hypothetical FOMO trader is about to lose his shirt over the next few weeks, so let’s dive into the specifics. On December 1, 2013, there were 40 coins listed on CoinMarketCap. I won’t list them all here, but of those 40, all but 11 are still listed as active on CoinMarketCap. The truly dead (or “inactive”) coins are BBQCoin (BQC; rank 16), Devcoin (DVC; rank 19), Tickets (TIX; rank 22), Copperlark (CLR; rank 24), StableCoin (SBC; rank 25), Luckycoin (LKY—ironic, I realize; rank 31), Franko (FRK; rank 34), Bytecoin (BTE; rank 35), Junkcoin (JKE—how apt; rank 36), CraftCoin (CRC; rank 39), and Colossuscoin (COL; rank 40).*** Now, since this post is already incredibly long, instead of testing all 40 coins, let’s take a decently-sized sample of five coins each from the top, middle, and bottom of the stack, and look at what happens. For the middle, although the temptation is to take decent alts, let’s fight that and take the group with the highest failure rate: ranks 21-25. So, here’s out pool:
Top Five: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple, Peercoin, and Namecoin
Middle Five: Yacoin, Tickets, Ixcoin, Copperlark, and Stablecoin (ranks 21-25)
Bottom Five: Junkcoin, Argentum, Elacoin, CraftCoin, and Colossuscoin (ranks 36-40)
Now, here are how our sample of coins has performed as of when I write this:****
Bitcoin: Up from $1,083.14 to $6,957.99—a ~6.42x increase
Litecoin: Up from $39.77 to $117.43—a ~2.95x increase
Ripple: Up from $0.047034 to $0.527721—an ~11.22x increase
Peercoin: Down from $7.58 to $1.62—a ~78.6% loss
Namecoin: Down from $9.94 to $1.52—an 84.7% loss
So, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our top-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth $411.80 (the profitable coins) + $3.06 (PPC) + $4.27 (NMC) = $419.13—a 4.19x increase. Now for the two coins in the middle five that didn’t completely die:
Yacoin: Down from $0.311704 to $0.001025—a ~99.7% loss (Note: Since a $20 investment would only be worth a little over six cents, I’m calling this a total loss)
Ixcoin: Down from $0.146275 to 0.111126—a ~24% loss
So, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our middle-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth ~$15.19—an ~84.8% loss. Finally, here are the two coins from the bottom five that didn’t completely die:
Elacoin: Down from $10.95 to $0.212289—a ~98% loss (Note: since this is only worth about $0.39, I’m calling this a total loss)
Argentum: Down from $0.793038 to $0.117466—an ~85.2% loss.
So, excluding everything buy Argentum, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our bottom-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth ~$2.96—a ~97% loss. Putting it all together, $300 invested in this sample of 15 coins as close to the peak of the 2013 market as the data will let me get, would be worth $429.95—a disappointing, but not-unexpected ~30.2% increase over five years. That said, I’m honestly somewhat amazed our FOMO trader made anything at all on this basket of coins, considering how many of them failed. In any case, all of his gains came from the top-three coins from 2013: Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple. Conclusions What’s the lesson here, what’s the takeaway?***** Most importantly, I think the above analysis shows that it can be very dangerous to buy alt-coins when the market is at or near an all-time high—a conclusion that appears to be true regardless of where the alt is positioned in the market. That said, there are a few caveats: (1) this sample was intentionally bad, in order to reflect a worst-case scenario; (2) even buying the top-three coins at the all-time high didn’t net our FOMO trader particularly large gains when compared to someone who bought these same coins after the crash. Therefore, I think that the most important lesson here is not to buy high in the first place. Investing solely because of FOMO will probably cause you to lose money, unless you have invested equally in a broad range of cryptocurrencies, like the trader in our hypothetical. Even then, however, our FOMO trader probably would have done better investing in an S&P Index fund over the same period. Endnotes *This is a correction to my earlier piece, in which I stated that the cryptocurrency market peaked on November 30, 2013, at a total market capitalization of ~$15.2 billion. I made this error due to having failed to narrow the date range of the chart so I could properly zoon in. That said, the exact details of the market peak don’t affect the conclusions from my last piece, which considered trades made after the market had bottomed out. ** …you do not talk about trading. Wait, that’s the wrong rulebook. *** Since I already typed it out, here’s the list of remaining active coins, in descending order: Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Peercoin (PPC), Namecoin (NMC), Megacoin (MEC), Feathercoin (FTC), WorldCoin (WDC), Primecoin (XPM), Freicoin (FRC), Novacoin (NVC), Zetacoin (ZET), Infinitecoin (IFC), Terracoin (TRC), Crypto Bullion (CBX), Anoncoin (ANC), Digitalcoin (DGC), GoldCoin (GLD), Yacoin (YAC), Ixcoin (IXC), Fastcoin (FST), BitBar (BTB), Mincoin (MNC), Tagcoin (TAG), FlorinCoin (FLO), I0Coin (I0C), Phoenixcoin (PXC), Argentum (ARG), Elacoin (ELC) **** I know that we could have sold them sooner, and probably for more money, but let’s just assume that our hypothetical FOMO trader was a founding member of the #hodlgang. ;-) ***** Don’t mess with Maui when he’s on a breakaway! You’re welcome. ;-) Disclosures: I have previous held Litecoin, and currently hold approximately $140 of Ripple. I do not believe this influenced my analysis in any way. I have never bought or held any of the other coins discussed in this analysis. Edits: Formatting, typos, minor clarifications.
Top 10 Best Cryptocurrency Wallets for 2019 (Re-Post)
https://preview.redd.it/g0j3lqvymxi31.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1024902cc5c9ad6f0417a419d0c1b4e75c2c13f You've asked for a list to find the Best Cryptocurrency Wallet, We've delivered! Bitcoin prices have been rising throughout 2019, and have now hit over $10,000! Pair that with newer cryptocurrencies such as ether along with an increasing acceptance of blockchain tech plus media and government coverage, cryptocurrency wallets are needed now more than ever. Whether you are looking for the best cryptocurrency wallets, Bitcoin wallet or the best Ethereum wallet, we've got you covered. These best cryptocurrency wallets, best Bitcoin wallets, and best Ethereum wallets have proven to be crowd-pleasers, and each comes with its own array of pros and cons that are mostly dependent on user preference:
1. Ledger Nano S (Best Ethereum Wallet)
The Ledger Nano S is a cryptocurrency multi-asset hardware wallet that looks like a folding flash drive. It can store Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other Altcoins. The Ledger Nano S connects via a USB cable and requires interaction with the device to confirm transactions. Ledger’s Nano S is also U2F authentication compliant for use with other services and can run multiple apps. The Ledger Nano is safe, relatively inexpensive, malware proof and cannot be hacked. For those reasons, we think it is one of the best cryptocurrency wallets. See #6 for the Nano's beefed up brother, the Ledger Blue! Ledger Nano S is available in saffron yellow, flamingo pink, jade green, lagoon blue, and black. According to Ledger, these are in stock and shipping. Cost: $59 Buy Direct Here > www.LedgerWallet.com
2. Coinbase (Best Bitcoin Wallet)
CB is an established and dedicated cryptocurrency exchange, a Bitcoin, and Ethereum wallet, and is supported in more than 30 countries. They have helped over 10 million users transact more than $20 billion in cryptocurrency exchanges and is the industry leader for cryptocurrency exchange. They have a great user interface that is easy to use. Free to sign up but they do charge a minimal transaction fee depending on the size of the transaction. Simply sign up, connect your bank account or credit card, then buy your cryptocurrency. You will need to verify your identity by providing 1 or multiple pieces of identity, depending on how much you buy. Once you've purchased your Bitcoin, You can easily transfer it to your “vault” for better protection. It may take several days to receive the first Bitcoins you purchase. Be sure to turn on 2-factor authentication for additional protection to your account, you can download this on any cell phone using Google Authenticator or Authy. Sign Up Here >www.Coinbase.com
3. Ledger BLUE
The “Rolls Royce of hardware wallets! It is by far the most advanced hardware security gear on the market. Comes with a color large touchscreen, Bluetooth, and a rechargeable battery. Lightweight for easy transportation and storage. Works with multi currencies and extensible with other apps. Ledger offers enterprise-level security. If it wasn't for the high price point, Ledger would get our vote for the top 5 best cryptocurrency wallets. Shipping: Available for Preorder, According to Ledger this will ship in late September 2017. Cost: 229.00€ or roughly $270 USD. Buy Direct Here >www.LedgerWallet.com
KeepKey is a simple hardware wallet that secures Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dogecoin dash, and Namecoin. Your assets are protected from hackers and thieves. They claim to be virus and malware proof because it does not have an operating system like your phone or computer. The firmware is 100% open source and works on PC, Mac, Linux, and Android. You can make modifications to their firmware or create your own, then run it. Keep Key has a great digital display and comes in a very appealing anodized aluminum and black polycarbonate case. They offer a 1-year limited warranty. As of 8/29/2017, These are finally back in stock! Cost: $99 USD. Buy Direct Here >www.KeepKey.com
TREZOR is an industry-leading hardware multi-cryptocurrency wallet. They were the original hardware wallet and claim to be the most secure. These are quick to setup and easy to use. They offer a Google Chrome extension that communicates with your hardware. TREZOR combines an easy setup with a small, durable token for authenticating and storing cryptocurrency. The token can also act as a security key for the new U2F authentication process. These are available in black and white colors. Customers tell us these are shipping 4 days after the order is placed. Cost: 89. € or roughly $10 USD. They also offer a “Multipack that contains 3 Trezors and gives you a 22€ discount. Buy Direct Here > www.Trezor.io
StrongCoin one of the best cryptocurrency wallets. They are a hybrid wallet allows you to send and receive Bitcoins just like any other wallet. However, the Bitcoin private key which is required to send money is encrypted in your browser before it reaches their servers. They can never hold your bitcoins ransom because you are able to download your entire account as a PDF. You can purchase bitcoins directly to your StrongCoin wallet so they are never at risk of theft on an exchange. StrongCoin is the longest running Bitcoin wallet. 110,000 users have signed up and it appears to be a very well known and widely used company. Their wallets are free to create but they do charge a small transaction fee depending on the amount of Bitcoin. Sign Up Here >www.StrongCoin.com
If this page were titled The Best Designed Cryptocurrency Wallet and not Best Cryptocurrency Wallets, Exodus would be the clear winner. Exodus is the first desktop software wallet to have ShapeShift built into the interface in order to allow for rapid conversion between various altcoins and cryptocurrencies. Beyond having ShapeShift integration, Exodus is a multi-asset wallet and lets you store your private keys in one application with a customizable user interface. You have full control over your encrypted private keys, they have beautiful live charts and you can customize the look and feel of their interface. They offer 24/7 support via their help desk or email which makes communication nice for late night projects. They also offer a Slack channel for communication with other users. Exodus is available for Windows, Mac, and Linux. This software is free to download.
8. Jaxx – Ice Cube
Jaxx established their brand by allowing for cross-platform support with their crypto wallet. They have added integration support for ShapeShift and gives users a multi-currency wallet that they hold the private keys for. Jaxx announced the “Ice Cube” which is a hardware wallet with a camera and cellular chip for broadcasting transactions that never connects to the internet. The Ice Cube is water and fire resistant. This company is small and can also be stored in a safe or safety deposit box for security. Jaxx has a beautiful user interface and visible code, you can tell they have designed this product for the amateur as well as the most experienced Crypto enthusiast.
Granted the prestigious “Best Mobile App” award by Blockchain.info in 2014, the wallet provides the ability to send and receive bitcoins whilst benefiting from bank-grade security. Mycelium is an Android-based multi-asset cryptocurrency wallet that has been tested by hundreds of thousands of users. At the time of writing this, they had the most stars on Google Play. They are in the midst of integrating with a variety of third-party service providers to bring new and emerging applications into a realm of usefulness that can only be achieved with native functionality and a high degree of user trust. They currently integrate with Cashila, Glidera, Coinapult, Trezor, and Ledger. Mycelium also has hardware wallets and is working to further the development of decentralized applications (DApps). They are constantly upgrading this software. They are working on a personal finance tool to pay your bills and manage your finances and investments. This is the best Ethereum wallet and the best Bitcoin Wallet.
Electrum was created by Thomas Voegtlin in November 2011, as a result, various developers have contributed to its source code. A software wallet that was designed to give users the freedom to manage their funds and private keys in a secure manner. Electrum allows you to store your private keys offline and integrates with some hardware wallets like TREZOR or Ledger products. Electrum utilizes decentralized servers to ensure minimal to no downtime.
Different Types of Cryptocurrency Wallets:
What is a Cryptocurrency Hardware Wallet?
These cryptocurrency Wallets store your information offline so it cannot be hacked. While it is more expensive than most other wallets, It can be a great investment. A lot of people buy 2-4 hardware wallets to spread the risk of losing one. We recommend storing this in a safety deposit box at your bank or in a very safe and secure place in your home. The downside of these wallets is losing your wallet, be careful! For security, we think these are the best cryptocurrency wallets available.
What is a Cryptocurrency Web Wallet?
These are the easiest wallets to use and the most convenient. Most websites will allow for 2-factor authentication through Google, text message, or Authy. This adds a great layer of protection. We have heard of very few cases where these accounts were hacked individually but we have heard of entire exchanges getting hacked which results in stolen bitcoins. We always keep some of our Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum and other Altcoins in web-based crypto wallets so we can easily day trade and move funds around.
What is a Cryptocurrency Desktop Wallet?
These are great wallets for storing cryptocurrency. You don't have the concern of losing your wallet like a hardware cryptocurrency wallets. You don't have the concern of getting hacked like web-based cryptocurrency wallets. These desktop wallets are generally free or low cost. You are however at risk of losing your wallet if your computer fails or is lost or stolen. If you want to make sure you don't lose these wallets, we suggest printing them on a durable material like foam board printing. These can make for the best bitcoin wallet and also the best Etereum wallet.
What is a Cryptocurrency Mobile Wallet?
Both Apple and Android offer mobile app based cryptocurrency wallets. These are great because you can use them on the go and on the fly. We have read several reports on Reddit about fraudulent apps that steal your bitcoin wallet and all of its contents so please be sure to use a well known Mobile crypto wallet. Link to original blog post: https://www.disruptordaily.com/top-10-best-cryptocurrency-wallets-for-2017/
There will never be consensus. There will never be consensus. There will never be consensus. If history has taught us one thing it is that there will never be consensus. A group of people didn't want to pay taxes so they founded a WHOLE NEW COUNTRY! Then those same people years later could not agree on "labor laws." One group wanted to continue to enslave people, the other group wanted freedom for all people. That SPLIT that whole "new" country. Now just about every country is fragmented into dozens of groups. Meat eaters. Non meat eaters. Socialists vs Capitalists. And now there is a political group founded on the fact that they don't get enough pu**y. No...I'm not making this up. There will never be consensus. Bitcoin was supposed to be the thing that united us all. The world NEEDED an alternative to banks. And the creators of bitcoin succeeded in that. The blockchain was born. What an accomplishment. It is a technological marvel that can solve so many problems. The problem is, humans got in the way. Perhaps being there in the beginning and watching the bitcoin community grow made them BTC maximalists. In the beginning, there WAS only one coin. True bitcoin people did not pay litecoin, or namecoin any attention. (I did invest in peercoin though) I remember when litecoin was $4 and I bought ZERO of that coin because I didn't think it had a purpose. Today my opinion of litecoin is the same...but I'm not going to create a subreddit called allltcholderssuck I am a big enough person to allow someone to have their own opinion without it imposing on my beliefs. But with bitcoin - which is probably the first subreddit a new crypto wannabe would go to, this is not the case. If you've never been on bitcoin I can sum up every thread like this. ALL NON BTC COINS ARE TRASH. ALL PEOPLE WHO BELIEVE IN ANY OTHER COIN ARE STUPID. ROGER VER IS TRASH. ALL HAIL Bitcoin! Did I miss anything? (nope that sums it up right there). Any opinion, any new idea, any suggestion is met with a digital beating and a ban. Can we increase the block size? BAN. Is BTC harmful to the environment? BAN. Will BTC ever have smart contracts? BAN. At one point even Ethereum was a bad word. Why does this matter to you?? Because now, the community that built itself around inclusion and democracy, and the "we hate banks" motto has been fractured. And most of the hate is coming from bitcoin. Now we have people who were in Bitcoin when bitcoin was $300, that don't own any bitcoin! (like me) Not because we don't believe in bitcoin, but because we don't believe in the people behind bitcoin. And this ANTI-bitcoin attitude is growing. Every coin or token that comes out in hopes to improve the blockchain is a vote against bitcoin. They are saying "we don't believe BTC is enough" Rather than try to learn from these people, and improve the technology, bitcoin shuts itself off to the rest of the world, and continues to shout BITCOIN ONLY from inside their digital barricades. Make no mistake THIS is the reason the market is down. Network congestion, led to high fees, led to people selling, led to understanding more about the people behind bitcoin, led to a dislike of the bitcoin maximalist community, led to moving money to other projects. Its not charts. Its not whales. It is people saying "I want nothing to do with bitcoin." As long as bitcoin continues to spew this nonsense, it WILL be a drag on the entire community. New people (which is the life of any business) will come in - see the hatred - and take their money with them. Whales, will simply invest in other projects. Bitcoin will continue to fall, and unfortunately the entire crypto market will fall with it. As long as people have a Bitcoin first mentality the crypto market will fall. We have to move towards an inclusive crypto mentality. Any project that actually adds value to the community should be given the opportunity to stand on its own merits. And its not just bitcoin, other coins have also developed this (insert coin here) only mentality. This is not a zero sum game. Having various options is the definition of democracy. bitcoin mods are literally the hitlers of the crypto world. Spewing hatred, and totalitarianism will get you nowhere...eventually. It's time for bitcoin to die
Ethereum is almost certainly the number 2 coin in comedy gold. It will likely surpass Bitcoin in comedy gold long before it passes it in market cap. Thanks in large part to a spam-based marketing campaign on Reddit, it also has a dedicated base of critics. After its IPO, it was known as “Inthereum” for a while, infinitely powerful of course, as vaporware can do anything. It had a major version release, then another. Finally, a major smart contract, in terms of valuation, came along: The DAO. Not to be confused with other DAOs, before and after. The DAO was the biggest. It was going to be the best; it already was the best! Euphoria was off the charts. Until just a few months in, a bug was found. And the killer app became the flash point. What could they do? Well, hard fork and give the money back, of course! And so they did. “Code is Law”; but this is actually good for Ethereum because “[a]lthough some do question the analogy ‘code is law’. I do not. We just found out that we have a supreme court, the community!”  After the D'OH, Ethereum struggles to top its ATH comedy gold, but there is still a bright future for popcorn and comedy gold from Ethereum.
5 Largest Veins of Comedy Gold
Here are the largest comedy gold veins in Ethereum in potential reserves in our estimation in approximately descending order:
Cultlike euphoria - Now, this can certainly be said to be common to almost all cryptocurrencies. But Ethereum seems special here, even more than Bitcoin's community. There is a real belief here that this coin is going to change the world. This helps play into a "this is very good for Ethereum" mindset, wherein even the D'OH fork was a great success!
Vitalik Buterin - The best name in cryptocurrency! Young genius central to Ethereum and almost universally seen as the most important leader in the project. In our view, his endorsement and leadership during the D'OH fork led to that route being taken. That is, we believe if he had opposed it from the start, he may have been able to prevent it or at least have led to what is now called ETC being the dominant of the two.
And so in our view, Mr. Buterin runs a billion dollar cryptocurrency right now. He and his team seem to have done reasonably well so far; it seems likely they'll continue to thrive. To the best of my knowledge, confirmed on /ethereum, there hasn't been a drug market implemented in Ethereum or trading with ETH so far. But while it seems like a terrible idea, because of the lack of privacy and proven mutability of contracts, it seems like eventually there's going to be a major drug market accepting ETH just because it has such a high value. And, they point out, monero and zcoin’s core privacy feature will apparently be available on ETH after this next fork, so look forward to anonymous ETH fueling drug markets! And then the interesting question will be raised of how Chief Justice Buterin will rule on the case, whether it is worthy of an intervention or not. If not a drug market, then another buggy and hacked contract. Or a hacked exchange, and the question of whether to make it or its users whole, or "let the hacker win".
DAOs - From the beginning, it was proposed that Ethereum itself and its reserve fund would be turned into a DAO. How exactly this was going to happen would be figured out later of course. There was an initial estimate of 2016 for the transition.
Of course, in 2016, The DAO and the D'OH happened. I'm not aware of a current further push to put all of ETH's future funding into a DAO. But I'm sure the topic will resurface. And it will be hilarious on so many levels. The DAO actually collapsed too soon for peak comedy gold extraction. It had been predicted that there would be no consensus on any proposals and that nothing would be funded, and that there would be gold from that. But it was just a few months in when the bug was found. And while the D'OH fork was certainly a rich vein of comedy gold, it wasn't as rich as what the DAO could have been if it had floundered around for a year or so before the hack. Surprisingly, there's actually a running, apparently working DAO on ETH that was started even before The DAO: digixDAO. If it keeps on running, it will continue to be hilarious as other DAOs fail to learn from it. If it fails, there's all the more hilarity for Ethereum, making it the platform where anything complicated enough to look like an original use case will break. The very existence of digix is proof-of-comedy-gold.
Immutability - The whole central notion of immutability is going to be a recurring question for Ethereum after the D'OH. While there was a lot of sentiment of "just this once and never again" at the time, there will someday be another major issue, and the precedent will mean that at least a major debate among the community will be had. Ethereum is "mostly immutable". Bitcoin is far better protected here, because while it's true they've hard forked to fix a bug before, that was years ago and the community is far more fractured now. Ethereum has a demonstrated capacity to do both routine and controversial hard forks. This strength is also a challenge, as it will invite constant legal and ethical questions about when it's appropriate to modify the chain itself with a fork: that is, rolling back some or all transactions after major bugs, thefts, frauds, and so forth.
Concentration of funds - This one I'm just guessing at. Although rich lists do exist, obviously one entity like an exchange could pool funds in an address without one person owning that much, or one person could splits their coins among many accounts. But it gives a rough guide. In Bitcoin, the top 113 addresses, having more than 10,000 BTC, in total are 17.46% of the current supply [ 2 ]. And in Ethereum, it's true that the top two accounts are marked as exchange accounts [ 3 ]. Still, having lots of funds concentrated in a single exchange wallet seems to still have some potential for comedy gold. In Ethereum, the top 50 addresses have more than double the proportion of the top 113 in Bitcoin, a bit over 40% of the current supply. My guess would be there are still a lot of people who invested heavily in the initial ICO who have held onto a significant portion of their initial ETH. While some of these top addresses are exchanges, I think there are probably many individuals represented in here as well, and every one of them is a multimillionaire from this account alone.
Of course, so far, because ETH is still smaller than BTC in overall market cap, these top addresses aren't as huge as the top addresses in Bitcoin in current market value. But if ETH were to overtake BTC's current position with a relatively unchanged distribution, there would be some real comedy gold coming off this factor. Cribs could have a spin-off Ethereum series. This concentration was a part of making The D'OH what it was in my view as well: in Bitcoin, there would never have been so much of the coin tied up in one particular venture, at least not now. But in Ethereum, this concentration and groupthink can combine to hilarious effect.
A Brief History of Comedy Gold in Ethereum:
“Laws, like sausages, cease to inspire respect in proportion as we know how they are made” - John Godfrey Saxe In the beginning, there was an offering. The greatest coin the world had ever seen; step right up and buy it! There was even code; this is no vaporware! Sure, there was more work to be done, but the ICO would fund that work, the founders would get a little, and create a reserve for the future and the rest would be mineable. There was also some of the most vociferous objections on BCT, declaring that the stake allocated to the founders was too large, pointing to other coins which had done smaller or done without. Arguing against the reserve; arguing against having a presale at all. Some people, of course, completely failing to read the documentation accurately to see what was even being proposed. And an almost complete radio silence from this large team working around the clock on Ethereum. It took some months from when the initial ANN was made until the sale actually started, but by the time they had their sale, they had perhaps the best documentation at launch to-date. Of course, there were some areas which seemed to lack some detail, like the budgeting, but never mind that, it was finally launching! Launching the sale, at least. In July and August of 2014, Ether was first sold. It was described as “fuel” for the virtual machine they were going to build [ 4 ]. And then, a year later, Ethereum was released live. By July 2016, it had already had its first major crisis after The DAO was hacked and the D’OH fork introduced in response. But the fact that Ethereum was ever released, and that it was released so quickly, is truly incredible. There was more than one person who thought that the stated goals of Ethereum were not possible. And, of course, many initial goals and deadlines didn’t happen. But unlike the railbirds on BCT were convinced, the team did not fail nor did it run off with the money. They were given a blank check, and they actually delivered a working product which has been successful so far financially. Of course, having its flagship smart contract go belly-up quite so quickly after having finally gotten a “killer app” seems rather unfortunate. The oracle problem (the question of how to reliably relate smart contracts to the outside world) seems unresolved, but partial solutions are inevitable and can only serve to make increasingly complex and thus popcorn-loaded contracts possible. Right now, all seems relatively quiet. But rest assured, there remains plenty of euphoria and gas to drive many more cycles of comedy gold production. Ether huffers need something to throw their ETH at. The more complicated; the better! Given some of the creations that have been made in NXT, for instance, a few more years of creativity on ETH should yield some very complicated and pop-corn rich smart contracts.
I was relaxing in my office, waiting for business. It was a dingy little one-room affair, but it would serve for now. Particularly with no clients. I had poured myself a double shot, and was about to enjoy it, when suddenly the door opened. A man walked in, familiar somehow although I couldn't place him. I reached out my hand instinctively, and instead of shaking it, he handed me a dollar. "Hello?" He pointed at the sign in the window, advertising a promotional one dollar gold survey for the first client. Always astute, I quickly surmised he wished to hire me. "Of course, sir! What coin would you like?" "Ethereum." "Certainly! And may I have your name for the log?" "Tyler Durdan." And with that, my newest client left. I downed my double and poured a generous triple to follow it. This was going to be a long day. Ethereum was the ultimate prize in my line of work. The coin which proved the adage that truth is stranger than fiction; which had proved itself a lucrative source of comedy gold. And who am I? Guy Noir, private comedy gold surveyor. I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Premined scamcoins crashing on noname exchanges. I watched popcorn glitter in the dark on forgotten the BCT threads. Popcorn junkies strung out on a high, and I've delivered them more comedy gold, popcorn, salt and butter. There is never enough. A dark night in a world that never sleeps and knows how to keep its secrets...But on the 12th Floor of the Acme Building, one man is still trying to find the answers to life's persistent questions: Guy Noir, private comedy gold surveyor. Thank you, Narrator. Now, as I was saying, Ethereum is overloaded with gold. But the core is pretty straightforward: Ethereum promised "smart contracts". Immutable. Turing-complete. This was what Bitcoin lacked. The bee's knees. Crypto 2.0. What could go wrong? We'll skip over the "Inthereum" period. Perhaps the vaporware criticism was never fair: from their version, they had Proof-of-Concept code; they went through some iterations and eventually got to release. Let's note clearly that there was plenty of time to determine some sort of official policy for what to do about a buggy or improperly written contract losing money. In Bitcoin, every hack has been a SFYL event, although it’s true that a bug in the coin itself was hard forked away before. Mt. Gox tried to blame malleability, but there was never a fork to try to recover funds. In Ethereum, immutability was often talked about. So far as I saw in skimming, “what if” scenarios to undo bugs wasn’t brought up front-and-center. Nor was immutability being debated that I saw. So Ethereum releases. A major contract is launched, The DAO, which gets an astonishing portion of ETH invested. The world's largest crowd sale as they ultimately called it. All the major players in ETH buy into it, including Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum and the best name in cryptocurrency. Just as they're starting to get into the comedy gold that The DAO doesn't really have a purpose, a bug is discovered. And just as its leader is assuring everyone that no funds are at risk, the funds start being drained out of the contract by an unknown party. And suddenly immutable means "immutable unless we screw up on the biggest contract which everyone important has invested in heavily". Ethereum ultimately hard-forks to return investor funds and basically unwind The DAO. After claiming that the bug was in the contract, the coin itself is hard forked to fix the issue. And the first Ethereum clone results, one which simply does not follow the new hard fork. So the natural question is: when can a contract be changed? In the first page of the Ethereum launch, this question was implied by asking about what would happen if there were an assassination market hosted by a smart contract on Ethereum. Of course, in reality, Ethereum is not really functional enough at present to enforce such a contract, but the question remains in case Ethereum were to actually attain a functioning smart contract platform. Attempted reference to Tears in rain monologue, credit to Rutger Hauer Guy Noir and narrator text lovingly stolen from Prairie Home Companion's Guy Noir, by Garrison B. Keillor.
Filed for psych eval Twenty pages into the BCT ANN, I believe I have contracted cancer, again. I’m reminded of why I don’t generally go on BCT. As bad as altcoin forums tend to be for their circlejerking, it’s almost better than the, well, there’s really no way to put it other than FUD that inevitably appears in response to anything. Of course, it’s not paid shilling so much as it is willful and vocal ignorance. For all the critiques in that thread, most of them are utter nonsense and simply are misreading the initial information. On the other hand, it’s January 27th in the thread by now, with February 1st and the pre-sale start, and they don’t have their “prospectus” up yet. I also haven’t seen the change in mining rate yet. Side note: eMunie; wtf? I guess I missed something? Either it’s gone through a namechange or it’s dead, because a quick coinmarketcap search didn’t find anything. A comedy gold mining project for another day. Great; spoiler alert: fundraiser delayed apparently, so even more cancer to read through in that thread on the way to getting to a prospectus! The first 44 pages of the thread was summarized thus: “I want to believe. Why are you not speaking to us? Throw me a bone. Just tell me what I want to hear, and I'll gladly throw my money in.” [ 5 ] Would that I had only had to read that quote rather than all 44 pages, and facing many more. Pages and comments dragged on as I waded through the low-grade popcorn. When would this prospectus be released, so my torment would end? Oh god: a side-thread shows that by the time they get to April, there’s still no prospectus or presale date or estimate of when there may be a date [ 6 ]. It’s time to give up on reading through the cancerous mainthread on BCT and start jumping ahead pages to find the pre-sale and prospectus. Okay, finally, in July, they release documents and start the sale [ 7 ]. Good enough. I have mountains of links on my desk. Comedy gold is overflowing, but this is a survey expedition, not a mining operation. But by the time it’s surveyed, there’s always so much gold lined up to mine it gets hard to leave it behind and leave with the samples. It’s time to hammer out some copy and close this file. Folks, we hope you’ve enjoyed this descent into madness and comedy gold brought to you by the Comedy Gold Survey Company and our patron Tyler Durden. Do you need more comedy gold in your life? Of course you do! So please donate today; every $1 helps! I’ve added a new special: $5 lets you choose the next coin to be surveyed! Thanks again to Tyler Durden, and I will now be re-watching Fight Club and questioning my sanity. Cheers y’all! Resources:
[ 6 ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=448923.msg6438910#msg6438910 - April 28th, 2014; Ursium says “We won't issue further comments regarding the Ether Sale, until we have completely finalized the framework for it. In the meantime enjoy the free technology, people are already building apps on it, which is exciting Smiley” ; this official Q&A thread then abandoned; these guys clearly hates BCT as much as I do
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412878.msg4497464#msg4497464 charleshoskinson, January 14th, 2014; “Current plans are for a 60 day fundraiser, starting from Miami on; however, we are still exploring this and thus will set something in stone closer to the conference.” - fundraiser launches in less than a month but date not even set yet; also “No, the rate of inflation is always decreasing and comparable with bitcoin.” and “In terms of ROI, this should be reflected with a positive ROI.” ; also “As for P2P exchange, we have a close relationship with Open Transactions and combined with a namecoin style contract provided in the whitepaper and bitmessage makes a significantly more efficient distributive exchange than is possible with BitShares. Trust is not required as auditing can be done on Ethereum blockchain and we wouldn't suffer any bloat. “
[ ] https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-Paper - Accessed Feb 12, 2017; shows a different version of the issuance model, including the variable presale price modification and reduced future mining. But constant mining reward is still shown and fixed.
[ ] https://forum.ethereum.org/discussion/2007/whitepaper-pdf - Thread from April 2015 where Stephen Tual says changes in whitepaper were “as to how significant these were, probably not much”; “We had a hosted copy of the WP on our .org website, but that is now pointing to the github (as the pdf, by definition, was static).”
[ ] https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,1854.0.html Thread which goes into Bytemaster response to initial Ethereum proposal; points out that running something complicated like Bitshares on Ethereum would be cost prohibitive. Also predicts Ethereum becomes PoS.
[ ] https://github.com/slockit/DAO “Our Standard DAO Framework allows people to create Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) governed by the code in this repository written immutably to the blockchain.”
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4690140#msg4690140 - “I think this whole project will get forced underground onto the Tor network in short order because the illegal stuff will be in the blockchain instead of externalized. It will have to directly compete with bitcoin with both hands tied behind its back because it will be hard for people to even find a safe copy of the program to download. Am I to understand that you will not have a legal opinion supporting what you are doing?” - Seth Otterstad
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4718951#msg4718951 “We will switch our PoW from Dagger to a hybrid PoW/PoS system to be developed via a bountied competition conducted by our university partners and open to the general community for participation. The terms will be announced in late february including judges, specifications and the university partners.” - jubalix quoting some Ethereum promotional document
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4740396#msg4740396 “Creating the platform with new features is one thing. Competing in the real world of hype, adoption, and social marketing with Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Dogecoin is a completely different beast. Especially, when every coin is based on ever changing software. The software is secondary to the marketing and socialization at this stage in the ballgame.” - DieJohnny
My thoughts on the dogecoin price as a bitcoin and litecoin and dogecoin user and investor - (Serious discussion)
I understand some of you are down hearted about the price dropping but after 6 months of watching this community grow let me tell you that Dogecoin has a real future - if we stay positive and keep using it. Last year when bitcoin was around $140 I submitted a post to the bitcoin community on why I thought it will rise to $300 soon after and it blew up on the front page on bitcoin. http://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1onfz7/why_i_believe_bitcoin_price_will_reach_300_very/ I got some positive responses but I also got several counter arguments for the fundamental and technicals reasons of why I believed bitcoin was undervalued and heading upwards and from respected members of that community too like roger ver. It looks like bitcoin is heading up again to its all time high of $1160 on bitstamp for almost the same reasons I mentioned in that post. So I'm here now in the hope to give my thoughts on the reasons behind Dogecoin's price decline and why I believe it will be going up and perhaps testing the all time high by year end. The fundamentals: As a crypto investor who bought bitcoin and then litecoin early on I need to see several important positives in a coin for me to invest. Big community, Development team, Large Volume, No or very little Pre-mine, Easy to use, Dogecoin has all those and compares favourably to bitcoin and litcoin but crucially it has the friendly face which encourages noobs to try cryptocurrencies. I like a lot of bitcoin and litecoin followers thank dogecoin for that. It's funny there are lots of posts on here about people should do this and that to maintain or increase dogecoin's value and some people need to do more etc. While some of that is all well and good the fact remains dogecoin's block rewards add up to a staggering 150 million doge per day and the selling pressure is so immense that a normal coin would have died a long time ago. 150 million doge are being mined and most of that comes on the market the same day yet dogecoin's price has held up pretty well because the demand is very strong - ok not as much as the sell orders but WAIT until late September when the block rewards are reduced to 40 million doge a day and see what happens then. If the demand is as strong then as it is now the price will rise dramatically over the course of a month. Stick around for that time and keep buying, spending and tipping doge! Btw I have been in discussions with some some devs and person in regular contact with some devs and they have some exciting developments coming up in dogecoin which will be announced to the community I will let them announce it. The technicals: Looking at the doge/BTC chart the price dropped around May 19th just around around the time bitcoin's price increased by $50 that day and continued this uptrend to the present day. Doge and Bitcoin don't share the same short term future so don't expect the same price movement currently. Dogecoin remained $0.0042-0.0046 from May 18th to May 28th. The fact that bitcoin kept rising hastened some holders of doge to sell their coins for bitcoin as they saw that rising and the same thing is happening with litecoin peercoin and namecoin aswell. Infact litecoin holders often sell their coins for bitcoin when bitcoin price shoots up, that is until they realise it's undervalued and then a few weeks later a large bull run starts in litecoin just like it did in November last year. What that means for doge is that we have seen incredible demand for dogecoin in the face of high block rewards dumping daily on the market and bitcoin price rallying again. All I can say is well done to all of you in this community for sticking with dogecoin and using it and hopefully in a few months time we will see dogecoin price rallying upwards before we reach the 10k block rewards. To the moon!
Several people have started to agree with me recently that litecoins aren't dead yet. But I wasn't quite able to give a concrete answer as to why, until a comment reminded me that litecoins are the most widely traded of all the altcoins. BTC-e, for example, doesn't deal in phoenixcoins and ronpaulcoins. Being widely traded is a significant advantage, even if the coin doesn't itself have any advantages. I'm not sure why ASICs are relevant to the price of altcoins. ASICs are going to be distributed amongst miners just like they were with bitcoins; this just makes the miners fight a losing battle with each other, costing each other money. As long as one person doesn't get all the ASICs, it doesn't have any effect on network security. A while back, all the speculation was that litecoins would overtake bitcoins once Mt Gox accepted them for trading. In the interim, however, we have several major exchanges trading them. When an exchange wants to expand into altcoins, they don't look towards the trendiest new thing; the first mainstay they adopt is litecoins. The other advantage litecoins have is that there is a certain amount of "lock-in" with other coins. I've already commented about the concept of technological "lock-in." In this case, you have exchanges like Cryptsy that denominate some altcoins solely in litecoins. I found out that there is a class of altcoins that can only be traded Bitcoins -> Litecoins -> Altcoin. Even if you don't want litecoins, you still have to buy them if you want to play the game with these "penny stock" coins. That keeps their price high because even if merchants do not accept them, they still have utility and "acceptance" by exchanges. Also, a quick thought to ponder: a lot of the reason why people buy bitcoins is that bubbles crash, things change, and bitcoins are still around. Have litecoins reached the point where people expect them to die, they don't, and therefore they think there must be something to them?
Max Keiser recommends Darkcoins; I do not
Max Keiser put out a tweet trying to sell darkcoins to his followers, saying he thinks they will recover after their recent bug-fueled crash. Remember that Keiser was also the one who said to buy the essentially 98% premined Quarks too, and that failure alone might be reason enough to ignore whatever he says. I like the idea that when an altcoin has a lot of hype, it's not time to buy it. Darkcoins may have some benefits, but there is so much hype around them that there is almost certainly a bubble there. Don't confuse that with the idea that darkcoins won't have a niche in the future. However, just like bitcoins, there are times when hype gets out of proportion to the advantages the technology has.
Today's altcoin mining report
Altcoin mining profitability is all over the map today. If I had started testing this pool back during the last cycle, it would have been interesting to see if we could deduce any patterns from this data. As you can see in the charts at: http://shoemakervillage.org/temp/altcoins2014-06-07.jpg there are about 20 coins that are constantly switching as the most profitable. This may be partially a result of those new coins that have extremely fast difficulty adjustments. The chart isn't as useful without being able to mouse over the bars, but it gets the general point across just seeing all the colors. People obviously do not value most altcoins for their specific features anymore; most of them are just a game. There is one trend that is not all over the place: http://shoemakervillage.org/temp/altcoins2014-06-07-2.jpg The expected payout of scrypt coins is at $1.33/Mh/day now, which is completely opposite the trend of increasing bitcoin prices.
The effects of orphanage
Some altcoins reduce the block confirmation time by making the coin ridiculously easy to mine. There's no advantage to creating an altcoin that has huge numbers of blocks, because then all that happens is that your "confirmed' transaction is more likely to get orphaned. In testing, I was getting 30% orphanage rates on some of these fast coins. Look at what happened last night in the course of a few blocks: http://shoemakervillage.org/temp/altcoins2014-06-07-3.jpg However, I'm still trying to figure out whether orphanage actually reduces the pool's revenue or not. The conclusion I'm coming to is that it only cuts miners' revenue from the expected value if your orphan rate is higher than the average orphan rate of the network. If everyone has 30% of blocks rejected, then the blocks are still being created at the same rate and everyone gets the same amount of money. You only lose money if you have more orphans than everyone else does. Am I missing something here? If not, then orphanage is only an indicator of a bug or of monetary losses if I have orphaned blocks for long networks like bitcoin, where having another pool finding a block within a second or two is very unlikely.
None of the altcoins has the innovation that bitcoin needs
The only true innovation from any altcoin that would pose a threat to bitcoin is if someone came up with a yet-unknown solution to the 1MB transaction limit, that will be permanent for an indefinite period of time, and released a new coin with it. Some people mistakenly say that people will switch to altcoins to get around the block size limit, but that isn't the case because the most any altcoin has done to resolve it is to make blocks more frequent, which only raises the limit to some hardcoded value. Raising the limit to some hardcoded value isn't "solving" the problem, it's just putting it off into the future. Don't make a mistake and buy altcoins thinking that some altcoin is going to address that limit, because none has.
Altcoin code is a mess
Altcoins are a mess, when you are trying to compile their code. If you haven't done this with many coin daemons, which most probably haven't, then you probably don't know that almost all altcoins are just clones of bitcoin with some minor changes. This is one of the reasons why bitcoins have such an advantage, because you can't be innovative when you just copy stuff from the bitcoin developers. What some people don't know is that most altcoins aren't even doing that. There are a few altcoins that have changed little in many years, so instead of incorporating fixes that have been included in bitcoin since then, those coins never upgraded to newer block templates and they don't include the latest features. It also means that bugs that were later fixed are still present in those coins. Some coins, like namecoin, are in horrible shape and for many, it's a matter of time before this code aging causes some sort of security issue to be discovered.
Dogecoins are doomed?
Dogecoins are supposedly doomed. The idea is that the block reward is decreasing too rapidly, and the price of dogecoins needs to rise to avoid a 51% attack. I'm not so sure that the developers of dogecoins will just roll over and die, given how large that community is. More likely is that if the price stays stable and more block reward decreases occur, they will release a fork to stop the reward decline earlier than expected. That will devalue dogecoins significantly. If the hashrate of dogecoins starts to drop, I would get out. I don't think the network is "doomed," but I do think that the only solution to the problem is to devalue coins, and you obviously don't want to be holding when that is announced.
Negative "interest" rates
Apparently, the speculation now is that negative interest rates are going to spread to the rest of the world, and that banks will start charging an account maintenance fee, along with eliminating interest payments. In that case, what is the purpose of using a bank? I won't be keeping a checking account if that happens. Instead, I'll close my account, buy a safe and store cash in it, using banks only to trade stocks. I don't think I spent a single dollar in actual cash for the past year before this, so this is a technological regression. What kind of world is this where it is a better idea for me to store wads of cash in a safe instead of putting it in a bank, where they actually take money from me?
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(NB: typos mine; crappy OCR software. If anyone wants to see the Eliott Wave he's discussing and I'll make it available.) Bitcoin Bubble or Bitcoin Breakthrough? How about both? by Elliott Prechter December 20, 2013 in the Elliott Wave Theorist EWT discussed Bitcoin for the first time in August 2010, when the currency traded at six cents. As far as we know, EWI was the first financial publisher to discuss it. Bitcoin was unknown to the general public and off private investors’ radar. Even the earliest adopters did not take it as seriously as they should have. The most notable example of this is the man who paid 10,000 BTC for a pizza. This pizza purchase is now famous (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=l37.0), and many continue to track its price in USD terms via the “Bitcoin Pizza Index," which recently hit an all-time high of over S12 million. Fast forward to today, and the currency is regularly featured in financial news and social media. Bitcoin Magazine has become popular, Congress is holding hearings on the currency, Germany has defined its role in finance, China is ruling on its legality, and the business world is adopting it. The most prominent business to embrace Bitcoin is Virgin Galactic, one of the many creations of billionaire Richard Branson (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101220710). EWT readers were prepared for all this. When Bitcoin was still in the shadows, the August 2012 issue said,
Presuming bitcoin succeeds as the world’s best currency-and I believe it will-it should rise many more multiples in value over the years. -EWT, August 2012
The big question on the minds of investors is not what Bitcoin has achieved, but should they buy Bitcoins now? It’s amusing that so many people ignored Bitcoin upon hearing about it in 20 1 0, but now that its price has gone up 20,000 times, they want to invest. Notwithstanding the currency’s potential, this shift in attitude is a signal saying now is not the time to buy. Let’s look at four areas of evidence: 1) Optimism is off the charts. Past issues of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed people selling their homes and borrowing money to invest in Bitcoins. That was near the peak of wave Now the desire to buy has grown even more extreme. Bloggers are calling for Bitcoin to reach S1 million. . .soon. One young investor borrowed a million dollars from his father and without his knowledge invested it in Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=359228.0). The other day I walked into a convenience store wearing a Bitcoin T-shirt, and the owner asked me if he should invest now. I felt like I was living in 1929. 2) Investors have recently been rushing to buy a rash of 95 (at last count; see https://bitcointalk. org/index.php?topic=l34179.0) new clones of Bitcoin that have recently emerged: Litecoin, Namecoin, Zerocoin, BBQCoin, PPcoin, PrimeCoin, NovaCoin, FeatherCoin, TerraCoin, Devcoin, Megacoin, Mincoin, DigitalCoin, Anoncoin, Worldcoin, Freicoin, IxCoin... and more. (That they are clones is obvious from the lack of imagination in naming.) This rush of clones is reminiscent of the South Sea bubble of 1720 and the dot-com mania of 1999, when shares of zero-profit, copycat companies (and even fake ones) sold like hotcakes. Virtually every week now, the Bitcoin code is forked into a new coin that investors bid up. lt’s as if buyers feel the world will run out of cryptocurrency, which in fact is infinitely and freely duplicable. 3) The Elliott wave pattern from Bitcoin’s inception shows five waves up. The December ll Short Term Update noted that a major top was potentially in place: The peak [in Bitcoin] came 10 days after U.S. officials, ranging from an assistant attorney general with the Department of Justice to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, “spoke approvingly of the potential of virtual currencies." So, here again, the government is getting on board at the very tail end ofa long rise. Since we posted that comment, Bitcoin has fallen an additional 40%, bringing it down nearly 60% from its all-time high. Will this prove to be just another brief, sharp correction or something larger? Take a look at the completed impulse pattern shown in Figure 3. The structure begins very near the inception of the currency three-plus years ago, when it was selling for a penny. Notice that wave @ is a triangle (see text, p.49), which typically comes in the fourth-wave position. Wave a thrust, carried to the all-time high of S 1242 on November 29. The reversal from that point should mark the start of the largest bear market to date in the currency. This forecast is in tune with the anticipated bear market in the broader stock averages, which have strongly correlated with Bitcoin’s pattern. The chart is in log scale to show the returns one would have achieved in each impulse leg of the pattern. Wave Q) achieved a stunning 3 19ox gain. Wave ® achieved 59.3% (a Fibonacci 3/5) of the gain of wave Q). Wave ® (measured from the low of wave @) achieved 39.3% (a Fibonacci 2/5) of the gain of wave (D and 66.3% (a Fibonacci 2/3) of the gain of wave Therefore, while each upward move has been large, each successive wave has been decelerating in log terms relative to past waves, in each case by a Fibonacci multiple. Also notice that Bitcoin trades more like a commodity than a stock, with its blow-off tops and extended fifih waves. Most of the gain since early 20 12 has been within (5) of ® and the final wave all of which is probable retracement territory. 4) Most people involved in this mania seem oblivious to Bitcoin’s fundamentals. In my experience, raising these issues publicly earns scorn for spreading “FUD.” But there is a good reason-now widely ignored-that Bitcoin is beta software. Our August 2010 piece explained how Bitcoin operates, but it’s worth revisiting some details to understand just how out-of-touch investor expectations are with the reality of Bitcoin technology. Specifically, let's examine the limitations of Bitcoin’s blockchain. The blockchain is the heart of Bitcoin. In its simplest form, the blockchain is a public ledger of all transactions that happen in the Bitcoin network. Each block is composed of individual records that track the ownership of each coin. The transactions “fit” together cryptographically. A block is created about once every 10 minutes by the network. Each block is then cryptographically linked to the previous blocks in the chain, forming a history of all transactions that-to Bitcoin’s credit-cannot be forged. To the extent that Bitcoin currency is real, it could be said that the blockchain is the Bitcoin currency. Yet the core problem with the blockchain is that it grows over time and must be shared by every fiill Bitcoin node. Today it is nearing 13 GB in size. Now, 13 GB doesn't sound too large, but at the current rates of exponential growth the blockchain is projected to become over a terabyte in size in just three years. What's more, the amount of accompanying data required to handle just a fraction of Visa-level traffic would overwhelm even the fastest Internet connections. This technical hurdle makes the “Bitcoin is going to a million” commentary seem premature. The hope for Bitcoin’s future lies in its open-source nature, allowing it to be improved, and Moore’s Law. Moore’s Law is colloquially used to signify the exponential increases in computer-hardware efficiency over time, including network capacity. But Moore’s law-which calls for a doubling of computer speed every two years-has hit a snag in recent years: the rate of improvement in performance has dramatically slowed, causing many experts to call for the end of the operation of Moore’s law. (For the record, Moore’s Law was never intended to refer to computer hardware performance, but the media have confused the term to the point where it is now generally used in this context. Originally, it was intended to refer to the increase in the number of transistors that are packed into microchips.) The past four years have been an exciting ride for Bitcoin. But the evidence says the Bitcoin bull market is done for now. It would be best to put Bitcoin out of your mind for the duration of the deflationary wave that is curling toward the financial world. Due to the psychology surrounding Bitcoin, as well as its correlation with the stock indices, it is too risky to buy now. Due to its open-source nature, however, Bitcoin’s infrastructure should continue to improve over the years. For the long run, I agree with Roger Ver, the CEO of memory dealers and one of Bitcoin’s earliest adopters, who recently said, “It is just getting started." But one could have said that about the U.S. stock market in 1966. It would have been visionary only if you were patient and willing to hold through a very deep valley. Our position is that Bitcoin will never again sell for 6 cents, as it did when EWT first wrote it up. But there will be another time to buy it for relative peanuts alongside stocks, real-estate, gold and silver. When the time comes, no one will be interested. Elliott Prechter's primary task at EWI is working on EWA VES, our in-house artificial intelligence softwarefor analyzing Elliott waves.
[ANN][BETA]CryptoThinker.com multi wallet with much more coming soon, need beta testers.
Welcome everyone. We all known how big the crypto community has become and the vast resources there are available. CryptoThinker.com goal is to join much of those resources into one main portal. My main goal is to make a website wich is simple, user friendly, open to everyone suggestions and completely open to the public. Features? -Registration/Login(done) -Wallet service(done) -Live data(partially) -Stats(todo) -Games(todo) -Charts(todo) -Chat(todo) -Hardware(todo) Whats done? -Full layout. -Live data. -News. -Registration/Login system. -Wallet service. -Withdraws/Deposits. -Transaction processor. -Account settings. Whats left? -Charts. -Stats. -Games. -Hardware. Which coins? -Bitcoin -Litecoin -Primecoin -Dogecoin -Namecoin My goal is to implement about 6 coins for now and i want them to be usefull coins or at least different, advice? Anyone that has some spare time please check it out and post any kind of feedback or suggestion. Im also open to developers suggestions. I will be tipping everyone who makes a valid comment! Best Regards, CryptoThinker.com
[ANN][BETA]CryptoThinker.com multi wallet with much more coming soon, need beta testers.
Welcome everyone. We all known how big the crypto community has become and the vast resources there are available. CryptoThinker.com goal is to join much of those resources into one main portal. My main goal is to make a website wich is simple, user friendly, open to everyone suggestions and completely open to the public. Features? -Registration/Login(done) -Wallet service(done) -Live data(partially) -Stats(todo) -Games(todo) -Charts(todo) -Chat(todo) -Hardware(todo) Whats done? -Full layout. -Live data. -News. -Registration/Login system. -Wallet service. -Withdraws/Deposits. -Transaction processor. -Account settings. Whats left? -Charts. -Stats. -Games. -Hardware. Which coins? -Bitcoin -Litecoin -Primecoin -Dogecoin -Namecoin My goal is to implement about 6 coins for now and i want them to be usefull coins or at least different, advice? Anyone that has some spare time please check it out and post any kind of feedback or suggestion. Im also open to developers suggestions. Best Regards, CryptoThinker.com
[Hiring] any programer who can add filter buttons and price tickers to my subreddit.
My sub is /CryptoMarkets. I would like to have the filter buttons(scams, charts, stocks) look like this if possible. I'm willing to accept filter buttons in the sidebar if filter buttons in the header area can't be done. For the price tickers, i would like Litecoin, Namecoin, Peercoin, along with Bitcoin. They only have to be quoted from one exchange. /BitcoinMarkets is a close example of what i'm looking for. Willing to pay $50 as a starting price.
Hello We have developed a Bitcoin trading application for Android mobile devices called TabTrader. Take a look here: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tabtrader&referrer=utm_source%3Dreddit TabTrader is trading terminal for bitcoin exchanges Huobi, ANXPRO, HitBtc, BTC-E, BTCChina, Bitstamp, Kraken, Justcoin. Trade various cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Ripple (XRP), Namecoin (NMC) and others. Platform enables fully functional mobile trading. Fast price charts with technical indicators, drawing and trading directly from charts. Includes widget for BTC, Dogecoin, Ripple etc. Price alerts by push notifications. News from Reddit, Coindesk, Bitcoin Magazine. Is it secure? The app cannot withdraw funds from the account. It uses API keys that you give permissions to trade and get info - nothing else.
The bitcoin rally has finally awoken the cryptomarket. All of the three altcoins we follow, Peercoin, Namecoin and Litecoin are trading substantially higher. But the largest percentage gains were seen in Bitcoin’s little brother LTC. The altcoin is up by 53 cents or just above 16 percent in the past three days alone. Bitcoin is trading higher as well but not to that extent. Let’s go over this week’s mover first and we’ll get back to BTC later in the article. Litecoin Rockets Higher Alternative cryptocurrency Litecoin rallied by over 16 percent in the last three days alone. On the chart below we can clearly see this breakout from that long-lasting congestion area. The repressed altcoin only needed a few hours to break several of resistance levels. But ultimately it stopped right at the December highs of $3.82 dollars per coin. This was another level noted in our previous article. http://itmages.ru/image/view/4196659/7e298bc1 Read More https://blog.fxopen.com/litecoin-rockets-higher-bitcoin-up/
Bitcoin finally broke above the $250 figure today. Prices traded as high as $253.59 in today’s trading session, before a retracement took BTC down to $251.84 dollars per coin. But this new rally has yet to translate into gains for other crypto-currencies. While Litecoin is trending higher, it still hasn’t broken the crucial $3.19 resistance. And both Peercoin and Namecoin remain firmly stuck in the middle of their respective ranges. Peercoin Still in a 3 Cents Congestion Alternative crypto-currency Peercoin is still trading within the 3 Cents range outlined in our article last week. The top of this congestion area stands at $0.393 while the bottom is at $0.363. As we can see on the chart below, PPC/USD is currently trading in the middle of its range. Imgur Read More https://blog.fxopen.com/peercoin-namecoin-refuse-to-follow-btc-highe
When I decided to write this guide, I was throwing cryptocurrencies around like they were nothing. I was foolish in the fact that I disregarded the exchange fees that are attached with the services that those exchanges provided. I'm in by no means a cryptocurrency genius, and I'm still not extremely seasoned at it, but I've learned enough about cryptocurrencies in the past month that I feel confident to pass on the knowledge I have learned and to help those who are overwhelmed on where to start. So what exactly is a cryptocurrency? According to technopedia (n.d.) a Cryptocurrency is a type of digital currency that is based on cryptography. Cryptocurrency uses cryptography for security, making it difficult to counterfeit. Public and private keys are often used to transfer the currency from one person to another. When mining cryptocurrencies, one important concept needs to be established, and that's hash rate. Hash rate is simply a unit of measurement of processing power. The more your hash rate is, the more profitable mining becomes. This guide uses specific sites and software, chosen by myself, as a great springboard into the cryptocurrency world. These sites and software are extremely flexible, easy to use, and integrate very well together. The mining pools I've chosen are multiple currency pools, designed to consolidate a major of the cryptocurrencies together, and instead of using several mining pools, you use three. These are the things you'll need to get started: MultiMiner Accounts at Coinotron, The Mining Pool Co., and BitMinter Accounts at Cryptsy and Coinbase There are a few different ways to mine for cryptocurrencies, the common of which are using your Central Processing Unit (CPU), Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), and Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) devices. CPU based mining is not profitable any longer, and will cost you money in the end by increasing electricity costs. GPU based mining is still popular, but losing steam against ASIC based mining. If you choose to use your GPU for mining, AMD/ATI based graphics cards (especially the Radeon HD 79xx series of cards), are the most efficient. If you have an nVidia based graphics card, I'm sorry. You can still mine on nVidia cards, but your hash rates are going to be much slower when compared to their AMD/ATI counterparts. If you chose to use GPU mining, Black Friday or Cyber Monday are you best bets for upgrading your equipment. ASIC based mining is quickly losing value with the changing difficulty on all networks, but it's the most cost effective way to increase your hash rate, and see a positive return on any equipment purchases. If my math is correct, using the methods in this guide, in order for any ASIC device to yield a positive cash flow, you've got to get a device that has at least a 5Gh/s rate (such as the Butterfly Labs Jalapeno). Now for the fun part, explaining how everything in this well greased machine is going to work. Patience plays a big part in the cryptocurrency world, and when I first started, I had none. I was so eager to see the amount of Bitcoin go up, regardless of how much I was getting penalized in fees from trading. So, that's the first step on your journey. PATIENCE. I CANNOT emphasize this enough. Sometimes, you've just got to hurry up and wait, the effects of waiting things out on the cryptocurrency market WILL PAY OFF. Step one of this machine is signing up for all three pools (BitMinter, Coinotron, and Mining Pool Co.). This is so that you can actually get server addresses to plug into MultiMiner, after signing up for these services though, you've still got a ways to go. Step two is sign up for Cryptsy. I chose Cryptsy because of the features they're going to offer at a later time, as well as support for 60 cryptocurrencies (which covers all but one of which we can mine). When your Cryptsy account is setup, you will need to go into the Balances portion of Cryptsy, and find all of the currencies in which you will be mining from the pools. Once Balances are loaded up, you will need to click on the Actions button next to the currency, and click Deposit / Autosell, and then Generate Address. There's a small clipboard near the address it generated, and that will copy the address for pasting in the mining pool websites. You will want to copy, and paste all of them to a text document, along with which currency it belongs to. Not only does this keep you from juggling back and forth trying to figure out things, but it helps for reference and setting up MultiMiner. Once you have those accounts setup, you'll want to sign up for Coinbase. A WORD OF WARNING FOR THOSE WHO ARE PARANOID... Coinbase will want to link to a bank account, this is mandatory if you want to trade your currencies for cash. If you want to trade currencies, just for the sake of trading, then you can skip Coinbase altogether. You can transfer your Bitcoins from Cryptsy straight into Coinbase, and then sell the Bitcoins from Coinbase, and straight into your designated bank account. MultiMiner, oh how amazing you are. For every cryptocurrency available in all pools, you will need to add these coins, along with server addresses, log-ins and passwords. To do so, click on the drop down next to the Settings button, and click Coins. From there, click on Add Coin, and choose each coin from a pool. This will list it in the box to the left, and give you the ability to add information on the right. You can add multiple servers as well, in case the current server you're mining on goes down. After all your coins are setup, you'll need to setup your Strategies. Click the drop down next to Settings, and chose Strategies. Check the Enable Strategies check box, choosing Straight Profitability from the drop down, and checking the Strategy every five minutes (that way you're not losing money by mining something that has dropped in price). This aggressive price checking makes it to where you're always on top with whatever you're mining. Also make sure you have Mine the Single Most Profitable Coin selected. Stick with CoinChoose as your price source (under Settings), as CoinWarz charges for there services beyond a certain point. Click Start, and take a vacation. Reading the charts on Cryptsy can be a little tricky, and scary if you've never saw those types of graphs before. Those graphs are called Candlestick Charts, and are used primarily in the stock market. I won't go in to great detail on this, however, you can find a nice cheat sheet on the subject here. I hope everyone enjoyed the guide, sorry for being punctual and brief, but there isn't anything too elaborate of complicated about searching for cryptocurrencies. I love mining as a hobby, mining's fun, and if there is any money to be made off of mining from my end, great, if not, I had fun mining. While compiling a spreadsheet of the minable currencies in this guide, if everything is set up correctly (and assuming servers aren't down), you should be able to mine the following:
And while Mining Pool Co. offers ASICcoin and Unobtainium, ASICcoin isn't supported in MultiMiner, and Unobtanium isn't supported in Cryptsy. I still mine for Unobtanium in hopes that Cryptsy will include it one day. References Cryptocurrency. (n.d.). In technopedia. Retrieved from http://www.technopedia.com/
In accordance to the 10 day media drive, we can start now by advertising ourselves on other subs. Suggestions for how to do so?
The first that comes to mind is how /Bitcoin did their "magic internet movies" add that seemed to have been very successful. A conversation was started here, and we already have someone interested in doing the graphic design for us. http://www.reddit.com/litecoin/comments/1qaxbx/a_massive_10_day_litecoin_media_awareness_drive/cdb26wd To be short, the minimum run is 5 bucks, with a cost of 75 cents per 1 thousand impressions. I think we have a tip bot, so lets start throwing some tips around! But we should aim to do a tipping spree in one day for maximum impact instead of a trickle of them for a few days. Find posts which are rising in popularity and throw some LTC tips at some of the awesome answers. Follow post rules though, for example don't throw them at /askscience and associated subs, we don't want to make fools of ourselves. Maybe have the tip day be on the upcoming friday? We could also somewhat unite ourselves with other alt coins, for example prime coin (disclaimer, I own some primecoins) or namecoin and whatnot so we can get bigger numbers as well as showing that there are indeed alt coins with novel ideas. For example, with litecoin we can show the very fast confirmation times, how it is still Asic resistant, and some specific examples of the dev teams activity. Prime coin, (again, biased here a bit) beating a few world records regarding prime numbers which will be very useful for cryptography. Namecoin already having a sort of working DNS setup going. Lastly, throw some charts and cool software from alt coins we already have. http://coinmarketcap.com/ <-- market cap's https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253409.0 <-- prime coin world record https://litecoin.org/ <- litecoin website https://litecoin.info/Main_Page <-- litecoin wiki
For the past couple of days, at least half of the gilds given were outside of the main Doge subreddits, which is great! Supporting the community through internal assistance and external “marketing” is what keeps us going. I’ve seen people talk about the downtrend in traffic to the /dogecoin, and my only response has been to look at the traffic to every cryptocurrency subreddit for comparison. In fact, I looked at many, and here’s what I saw for unique visits:
Subreddits listed in /CryptoCurrency sidebar and found significant through coinmarketcap.com. I did 6 months just because it sounded good and was a little past the bubble most seemed to have, not because I was trying to make any subreddit look better or worse than others.
As you can see, just about every single subreddit that had stats and started with over 1,000 people 6 months ago lost a substantial portion of traffic. Also note: Dogecoin has the second largest active community, too! In just about every way, we’re here to stay, so don’t delay, and rock the day. Also! Two members of our community made somebody else’s day a little brighter through a good ol’ fashioned gilding. Great job shibes! Here are the links to the comments given gold yesterday: penguin-surgeon ->qzzn mumzie -> lepaperbag If you run across a comment that gives gold, let me know! Or if you give gold to somebody in a dogetipbot banned sub, send me the link so I can add it! When dogetipbot is banned from replying in non-doge subreddits, my counts are shaky. Here’s the past week of activity broken out by the type of subreddit in which the gold was given:
Numbers without ranges are accurate based upon information provided by dvorwak and dogetipbot. The list of doge subreddits used so far is under the Data tab of the Google Doc.
Also, the top givers of gold through dogetipbot (for all time up through yesterday) are:
Perhaps the most enduring source of conflict within the Bitcoin community derives from incompatible visions of what Bitcoin is and should become. Businesses building on Bitcoin, believing it a What Is Litecoin? Litecoin is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency created by Charlie Lee, a former Google employee, in 2011. The cryptocurrency was created based on the Bitcoin protocol, but it differs in terms of the hashing algorithm used, hard cap, block transaction times and a few other factors. Namecoin is an experimental open-source technology which improves decentralization, security, censorship resistance, privacy, and speed of certain components of the Internet infrastructure such as DNS and identities. WHAT CAN NAMECOIN BE USED FOR? Namecoin protects free-speech rights online by making the web more resistant to censorship. Litecoin Sent coins in USD per day chart. Transactions Block Size Sent from addresses Difficulty Hashrate Price in USD Mining Profitability Sent in USD Avg. Transaction Fee Median Transaction Fee Block Time Market Capitalization Avg. Transaction Value Median Transaction Value Tweets GTrends Active Addresses Top100ToTotal Fee in Reward Based the mining hardware inputs provided, 0.00255527 Namecoin can be mined per day with a Namecoin mining hashrate of 112.00 TH/s, a block reward of 12.5 NMC, and a Namecoin difficulty of 11,021,604,455,095.00. After deducting mining power costs and mining fees, the final daily Namecoin mining profit is ($8.33) Namecoin to USD.
How To Convert Bitcoin Litecoin Namecoin Novacoin Terracoin Peercoin Feathercoin Primecoin To USD
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